Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical error”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Investigation of the impact of difference between FRENDY and NJOY2016 on neutronics calculations

A nuclear data library is used as a starting input for all subsequent neutronics calculations. NJOY has been used worldwide as a nuclear data processing code to create cross section libraries for a long time. For the verification of NJOY method and for providing an alternative nuclear data processing tool, JAEA has been developed the new nuclear library processing code FRENDY. In this paper, nuclear calculations were performed using the ACE files and the multigroup libraries created by both FRENDY and NJOY, and the impacts on the neutronics characteristics due to nuclear data processing were investigated using those libraries. MCNP was used to compare the ACE files by calculating many benchmark problems including ICSBEP and it was confirmed that the k-eff values generally agree with each other within the range of statistical errors. The multigroup cross sections are verified by the BWR design codes LANCR/AETNA through calculation of a commercial BWR5 equilibrium core loaded with 9*9 fuels. It was confirmed that fuel assembly and core characteristics are consistent with each other. From the above investigations, it was confirmed that FRENDY can provide comparable continuous/multi-group neutron cross sections with NJOY. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Timelike Compton Scattering from a longitudinally polarised target with CLAS12 at Jefferson Lab

Explorations into the internal dynamics of hadrons are constantly evolving, and the requirement for experimental results to verify theoretical models of hadron structure is paramount. A key area in this field is the study of Generalised Parton Distributions (GPDs), which are functions used to model the momenta of quarks and gluons within hadrons, and the methods to access GPDs experimentally. One such scattering process that allows access to these is Timelike Compton Scattering. TCS complements existing Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering experiments and allows investigation into the universality of GPDs through access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity independent GPD Hq via beam spin asymmetries (BSA), and it provides novel access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity dependent GPD ˜Hq through target polarisation asymmetries (TSA). This thesis work presents a comparative study with the first published BSA for TCS at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), alongside a first time extraction of a Target Spin Asymmetry with the Summer 2022 data taking run. JLab hosts the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) which provides a 12 GeV electron beam to four experimental halls. Hall-B contains the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer, which took data across three run periods on a longitudinally polarised NH3 and ND3 fixed target from 2022-2023, to extract measurements of electron-proton scattering, from which a TCS signal could be extracted. The thesis discusses work done to understand and eliminate contributions from the non-/low-polarised nuclear background, testing pre-established cuts to eliminate pion background from a dilepton (e+e-) final state and modifying them as needed for the new experimental run, and attempts to hone in on a clean TCS signal from which to extract the two asymmetry observables. A comparison with existing BSA results was performed; however, the statistical errors are too large to draw a significant conclusion as to whether there is agreement across each bin. More data is needed for a multidimensionally binned extraction. A proof of principle was achieved in the TSA measurements, with two out of four kinematic bins showing preliminary agreement in shape with theoretical values. Again, the errors are significant due to the contributions from the nuclear background. To support these conclusions, a further study was done, which takes into account an estimate of the asymmetries with the full available dataset (this thesis is based only on data taken in the summer set; at the time of writing processing was still being conducted for the final two datasets), as well as an estimate including additional future experiment days that were awarded in July 2024. Additional work was done on a secondary project exploring the feasibility of measuring TCS at the upcoming Electron Ion Collider, supporting the design proposal for the detector for the first interaction region and giving a positive outlook for the future of these types of measurements beyond JLab.

Gates, Kayleigh [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Unite↗

Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

Emas, N. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercompu↗

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Analysis of Rounded Data: Measurement Errors vs Rounding Errors

Since data for statistical analysis are always given in a discretized form, observations contain not only measurement errors but also rounding errors which are determined by the discretization step. In this paper we consider situations where the rounding errors are considerable: they are comparable to or even greater (in average) than the measurement errors. It is shown that it can be reasonable to increase the measurement errors in order to reduce the error of the final result.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantification and Statistical Analysis of Errors Related to the Approximate Description of Active Site Models in Metal‐Exchanged Zeolites

Abstract Metal‐exchanged zeolites are complex catalytic systems with great potential for applications in hydrocarbon conversion processes. The numerous combinations of zeotypes and metal‐based Lewis acid motifs create a vast material space that can only be effectively navigated with robust structure‐function relationships. Exhaustive modeling of extraframework metal sites in all crystallographically distinct framework positions is not practical; thus, we quantified the uncertainties arising from the use of simplified active site representations using the C−H bond activation in methane as a probe reaction. Density functional theory calculations and statistical analysis of associated error ensembles suggest that the Lewis acid identity primarily determines the reactivity of the zeolite towards methane activation, with other factors such as zeolite model characteristics deemed secondary. The error ensemble distributions were used to predict the relative probability of creating active C−H bond scission fragments in metal‐exchanged zeolites, and thus can be used to efficiently screen various metal‐exchange candidates in their efficacy towards hydrocarbon conversion.

Thirumalai, Hari↗

Deciphering baryonic feedback with galaxy clusters

Abstract Upcoming cosmic shear analyses will precisely measure the cosmic matter distribution at low redshifts. At these redshifts, the matter distribution is affected by galaxy formation physics, primarily baryonic feedback from star formation and active galactic nuclei. Employing measurements from theMagneticumandIllustrisTNGsimulations and a dark matter + baryon (DMB) halo model, this paper demonstrates that Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect observations of galaxy clusters, whose masses have been calibrated using weak gravitational lensing, can constrain the baryonic impact on cosmic shear with statistical and systematic errors subdominant to the measurement errors of DES-Y3 and LSST-Y1, with systematic errors on S 8 and Ω m reaching 10% and 50% of the statistical errors, respectively. For LSST-Y6 and Roman surveys, these systematic errors increase to 150% and 100% of the statistical errors, indicating the necessity for further model developments for future surveys. We further dissect the contributions from different scales and halos with different masses to cosmic shear, highlighting the dominant role of SZ clusters at scales critical for cosmic shear analyses. These findings suggest a promising avenue for future joint analyses of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and lensing surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

The strong coupling from $e^+e^-\to$~hadrons

We use a new compilation of the hadronic R R -ratio from available data for the process e^+e^-\to e + e − → hadrons below the charm mass to determine the strong coupling \alpha_s α s , using finite-energy sum rules. Quoting our results at the \tau τ mass to facilitate comparison to the results obtained from similar analyses of hadronic \tau τ -decay data, we find \alpha_s(m_\tau^2)=0.298\pm 0.016\pm 0.006 α s ( m τ 2 ) = 0.298 ± 0.016 ± 0.006 in fixed-order perturbation theory, and \alpha_s(m_\tau^2)=0.304\pm 0.018\pm 0.006 α s ( m τ 2 ) = 0.304 ± 0.018 ± 0.006 in contour-improved perturbation theory, where the first error is statistical, and the second error combines various systematic effects. These values are in good agreement with a recent determination from the OPAL and ALEPH data for hadronic \tau τ decays. We briefly compare the R(s) R ( s ) -based analysis with the \tau τ -based analysis.

Boito, Diogo↗

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗

Proton Scattering in NOvA Test Beam

The NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment is a two-detector, long baseline, neutrino oscillation experiment, which aims to make a determination of the neutrino mass ordering, the octant of $\theta_{23}$, and measure possible charge-parity (CP) violation. Determining these parameters is a step towards answering some of the fundamental questions about neutrinos. Are neutrinos their own antiparticle? Could neutrinos be responsible for the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe? How do neutrinos get their mass? Answering these questions requires precise measurements of the parameters that govern how neutrinos behave, namely the mass squared splittings, mixing angles, and possible CP-violating phase factor in the PNMS matrix. Reaching high precision requires minimizing both statistical and systematic errors. As NOvA continues to accumulate data, the sizes of our statistical errors continue to shrink such that in a couple of years they will be comparable to our systematic errors. NOvA's current systematic errors are dominated by energy and calibration uncertainties. The Test Beam program was initiated to address these uncertainties by assessing the detector response in an environment where more parameters of the incoming particles are known. One of the main goals of the Test Beam program is to garner a better understanding of our systematic errors, particularly in energy measurement and detector response, so that the modeling of these parameters can be improved. I studied protons in the Test Beam Detector with momenta around \unit[1]{GeV/c}, the high end of the momentum range relevant to quasielastic neutrino interactions in NOvA. One question this sample can help to answer is if we correctly simulate the fraction of protons that have an inelastic scattering interaction versus ranging out. If protons inelastically scatter at different rates in our simulation and data, the correction applied to the hadronic system when reconstructing neutrino energy could be inaccurate, since events with inelastic scattering will have less visible energy in the detector. This is particularly important for quasielastic $\nu_\mu$ events, which have the lowest hadronic energy resolution, and therefore give us our best measurements of $\Delta m_{32}^2$ and $\theta_{23}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Constraining the variation of the fine-structure constant with observations of narrow quasar absorption lines

The unequivocal demonstration of temporal or spatial variability in a fundamental constant of nature would be of enormous significance. Recent attempts to measure the variability of the fine-structure constant α over cosmological time, using high-resolution spectra of high-redshift quasars observed with 10 m class telescopes, have produced conflicting results. We use the many multiplet (MM) method with Mg II and Fe II lines on very high signal-to-noise, high-resolution (R = 72, 000) Keck HIRES spectra of eight narrow quasar absorption systems. We consider both systematic uncertainties in spectrograph wavelength calibration and also velocity offsets introduced by complex velocity structure in even apparently simple and weak narrow lines and analyze their effect on claimed variations in α. We find no significant change in α, Δα/α = (0.43 ± 0.34) × 10{sup –5}, in the redshift range z = 0.7-1.5, where this includes both statistical and systematic errors. We also show that the scatter in measurements of Δα/α arising from absorption line structure can be considerably larger than assigned statistical errors even for apparently simple and narrow absorption systems. We find a null result of Δα/α = (– 0.59 ± 0.55) × 10{sup –5} in a system at z = 1.7382 using lines of Cr II, Zn II, and Mn II, whereas using Cr II and Zn II lines in a system at z = 1.6614 we find a systematic velocity trend that, if interpreted as a shift in α, would correspond to Δα/α = (1.88 ± 0.47) × 10{sup –5}, where both results include both statistical and systematic errors. This latter result is almost certainly caused by varying ionic abundances in subcomponents of the line: using Mn II, Ni II, and Cr II in the analysis changes the result to Δα/α = (– 0.47 ± 0.53) × 10{sup –5}. Combining the Mg II and Fe II results with estimates based on Mn II, Ni II, and Cr II gives Δα/α = (– 0.01 ± 0.26) × 10{sup –5}. We conclude that spectroscopic measurements of quasar absorption lines are not yet capable of unambiguously detecting variation in α using the MM method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Charmed and light pseudoscalar meson decay constants from four-flavor lattice QCD with physical light quarks

We compute the leptonic decay constants f D+ , f Ds , and f K+ , and the quark-mass ratios m c =m s and m s =m l in unquenched lattice QCD using the experimentally determined value of f π+ for normalization. We use the MILC Highly Improved Staggered Quark (HISQ) ensembles with four dynamical quark flavors -- up, down, strange, and charm -- and with both physical and unphysical values of the light sea-quark masses. The use of physical pions removes the need for a chiral extrapolation, thereby eliminating a significant source of uncertainty in previous calculations. Four different lattice spacing ranging from a ≈ 0:06 fm to 0:15 fm are included in the analysis to control the extrapolation to the continuum limit. Our primary results are f D+ = 212:6(0:4)$(^{+1.0}_{-1.2})$ MeV, f Ds = 249:0(0:3)$(^{+1.1}_{-1.5})$ MeV, and f Ds /f D+ = 1:1712(10)$(^{+29}_{-32})$, where the errors are statistical and total systematic, respectively. The errors on our results for the charm decay constants and their ratio are approximately two to four times smaller than those of the most precise previous lattice calculations. We also obtain f K+ / f π+ = 1:1956(10)$(^{+26}_{-18})$, updating our previous result, and determine the quark-mass ratios m s /m l = 27:35(5)$(^{+10}_{-7})$ and m c /m s = 11:747(19)$(^{+59}_{-43})$. When combined with experimental measurements of the decay rates, our results lead to precise determinations of the CKM matrix elements !Vus! = 0:22487(51)(29)(20)(5), !Vcd! = 0:217(1)(5)(1) and !Vcs! = 1:010(5)(18)(6), where the errors are from this calculation of the decay constants, the uncertainty in the experimental decay rates, structure-dependent electromagnetic corrections, and, in the case of !Vus!, the uncertainty in |Vud|, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Aemulus Project. I. Numerical Simulations for Precision Cosmology

The rapidly growing statistical precision of galaxy surveys has led to a need for ever more precise predictions of the observables used to constrain cosmological and galaxy formation models. The primary avenue through which such predictions will be obtained is suites of numerical simulations. These simulations must span the relevant model parameter spaces, be large enough to obtain the precision demanded by upcoming data, and be thoroughly validated in order to ensure accuracy. In this paper, we present one such suite of simulations, forming the basis for the AEMULUS Project, a collaboration devoted to precision emulation of galaxy survey observables. We have run a set of 75 (1.05 h(-1) Gpc)(3) simulations with mass resolution and force softening of 3.51 x 10(10) (Omega(m)/0.3) h(-1) M-circle dot and 20 h(-1) kpc, respectively, in 47 different wCDM cosmologies spanning the range of parameter space allowed by the combination of recent cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Type Ia supernova results. We present convergence tests of several observables including spherical overdensity halo mass functions, galaxy projected correlation functions, galaxy clustering in redshift space, and matter and halo correlation functions and power spectra. We show that these statistics are converged to 1% (2%) or to the sample variance of the statistic, whichever is larger, for halos with more than 500 (200) particles, respectively, and scales of r > 200 h(-1) kpc. in real space or k similar to 3 h Mpc(-1). in harmonic space for z <= 1. We find that the dominant source of uncertainty comes from varying the particle loading of the simulations. This leads to large systematic errors for statistics using halos with fewer than 200 particles and scales smaller than k similar to 4 h Mpc(-1). We provide the halo catalogs and snapshots detailed in this work to the community at. https://AemulusProject.github.io.

large-scale structure of universe↗

Polarization Transfer in Wide-Angle Compton Scattering and Single-Pion Photoproduction from the Proton

Wide-angle exclusive Compton scattering and single-pion photoproduction from the proton have been investigated via measurement of the polarization transfer from a circularly polarized photon beam to the recoil proton. The wide-angle Compton scattering polarization transfer was analyzed at an incident photon energy of 3.7 GeV at a proton scattering angle of theta(p)(cm) cm = 70 degrees. The longitudinal transfer K-LL, measured to be 0.645 +/- 0.059 +/- 0.048, where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic, has the same sign as predicted for the reaction mechanism in which the photon interacts with a single quark carrying the spin of the proton. However, the observed value is similar to 3 times larger than predicted by the generalized-parton-distribution-based calculations, which indicates a significant unknown contribution to the scattering amplitude.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

B -meson decay constants from 2 + 1 -flavor lattice QCD with domain-wall light quarks and relativistic heavy quarks

We calculate the B-meson decay constants f B , f B s , and their ratio in unquenched lattice QCD using domain-wall light quarks and relativistic b quarks. We use gauge-field ensembles generated by the RBC and UKQCD collaborations using the domain-wall fermion action and Iwasaki gauge action with three flavors of light dynamical quarks. We analyze data at two lattice spacings of a ≈ 0.11, 0.086 fm with unitary pion masses as light as M π ≈ 290 MeV; this enables us to control the extrapolation to the physical light-quark masses and continuum. For the b quarks we use the anisotropic clover action with the relativistic heavy-quark interpretation, such that discretization errors from the heavy-quark action are of the same size as from the light-quark sector. We renormalize the lattice heavy-light axial-vector current using a mostly nonperturbative method in which we compute the bulk of the matching factor nonperturbatively, with a small correction, that is close to unity, in lattice perturbation theory. We also improve the lattice heavy-light current through O(α s a). We extrapolate our results to the physical light-quark masses and continuum using SU(2) heavy-meson chiral perturbation theory, and provide a complete systematic error budget. We obtain f B 0 = 199.5(12.6) MeV, f B + =195.6(14.9) MeV, f B s =235.4(12.2) MeV, f B s /f B 0 =1.197(50), and f B s /f B + =1.223(71), where the errors are statistical and total systematic added in quadrature. Finally, these results are in good agreement with other published results and provide an important independent cross-check of other three-flavor determinations of B-meson decay constants using staggered light quarks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗