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At least 271 records · Page 15

Software cost/resource modeling: Deep space network software cost estimation model

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for JPL deep space network (DSN) data systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models, such as those of the General Research Corporation, Doty Associates, IBM (Walston-Felix), Rome Air Force Development Center, University of Maryland, and Rayleigh-Norden-Putnam. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software lifecycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN work breakdown structure skeleton, which is then input to a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Tausworthe, R. J.↗

Characterization of Global Near-Nadir Backscatter for Remote Sensing Radar Design

In order to evaluate side-lobe contamination from the near-nadir region for Ku-Band radars, a statistical characterization of global near-nadir backscatter is constructed. This characterization is performed for a variety of surface types using data from TRMM, Seasat, and Topex. An assessment of the relative calibration accuracy of these sensors is also presented.

Spencer, Michael W.↗

Characterization of Global Near-Nadir Backscatter for Remote Sensing Radar Design

In order to evaluate side-lobe contamination from the near-nadir region for Ku-Band radars, a statistical characterization of global near-nadir backscatter is constructed. This characterization is performed for a variety of surface types using data from TRMM, Seasat, and Topex. An assessment of the relative calibration accuracy of them sensors is also presented.

Spencer, Michael W.↗

Hybrid Gibbs Sampling and MCMC for CMB Analysis at Small Angular Scales

A) Gibbs Sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for "low-L" (as demonstrated on WMAP temperature polarization data). B) We are extending Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters for the entire range of angular scales relevant for Planck. C) Made possible by inclusion of foreground model parameters in Gibbs sampling and hybrid MCMC and Gibbs sampling for the low signal to noise (high-L) regime. D) Future items to be included in the Bayesian framework include: 1) Integration with Hybrid Likelihood (or posterior) code for cosmological parameters; 2) Include other uncertainties in instrumental systematics? (I.e. beam uncertainties, noise estimation, calibration errors, other).

Gibbs sampling↗

New Approach for Temporal Stability Evaluation of Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites (PICS)

Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites (PICS) are one of the most popular methods for in-flight vicarious radiometric calibration of Earth remote sensing satellites. The fundamental question of PICS temporal stability has not been adequately addressed. However, the main purpose of this work is to evaluate the temporal stability of a few PICS using a new approach. The analysis was performed over six PICS (Libya 1, Libya 4, Niger 1, Niger 2, Egypt 1 and Sudan 1). The concept of a “Virtual Constellation” was developed to provide greater temporal coverage and also to overcome the dependence limitation of any specific characteristic derived from one particular sensor. TOA reflectance data from four sensors consistently demonstrating “stable” calibration to within 5%—the Landsat 7 ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus), Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager), Terra MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and Sentinel-2A MSI (Multispectral Instrument)–were merged into a seamless dataset. Instead of using the traditional method of trend analysis (Student’s T test), a nonparametric Seasonal Mann-Kendall test was used for determining the PICS stability. The analysis results indicate that Libya 4 and Egypt 1 do not exhibit any monotonic trend in six reflective solar bands common to all of the studied sensors, indicating temporal stability. A decreasing monotonic trend was statistically detected in all bands, except SWIR 2, for Sudan 1 and the Green and Red bands for Niger 1. An increasing trend was detected in the Blue band for Niger 2 and the NIR band for Libya 1. These results do not suggest abandoning PICS as a viable calibration source. Rather, they indicate that PICS temporal stability cannot be assumed and should be regularly monitored as part of the sensor calibration process.

Tuli, Fatima Tuz Zafrin↗

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed in 2011 that may be used to analyze both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The new algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex search algorithm that was originally developed at the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression models. Therefore, the simplified search algorithm is not intended to replace the original search algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm either fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new regression model search algorithm.

multivariate experimental data↗

Measurements of the spectrum of galactic electrons at very high energies

A counter telescope has been exposed in three balloon flights in 1970 to measure the flux and energy spectrum of cosmic ray electrons between 10 and 1000 GeV. This instrument has been modified by incorporating a large area CsI crystal as well as highly efficient time of flight circuitry, and was flown again twice during 1972. The methods of data analysis are based on extensive accelerator calibrations at SLAC. The resulting electron spectrum fits well to a single power law with an index (gamma) equal to 2.66 over the whole energy region. No obvious steepening can be observed, although statistical uncertainties prohibit definite claims beyond 250 GeV.

Mueller, D.↗

Deep space network software cost estimation model

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Deep Space Network (DSN) Data Systems implementation tasks is presented. The resource estimation model incorporates principles and data from a number of existing models. The model calibrates task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit DSN software life cycle statistics. The estimation model output scales a standard DSN Work Breakdown Structure skeleton, which is then input into a PERT/CPM system, producing a detailed schedule and resource budget for the project being planned.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

Wavelength dependence of position angle in polarization standards

Eleven of the 15 stars on Serkowski's (1974) list of 'Standard Stars with Large Interstellar Polarization' were investigated to determine whether the orientation of the plane of their linear polarization showed any dependence on wavelength. Nine of the eleven stars exhibited a statistically significant wavelength dependence of position angle when measured with an accuracy of about 0.1 deg standard deviation. For the majority of these stars, the effect is caused primarily by intrinsic polarization. The calibration of polarimeter position angles in a celestial coordinate frame must evidently be done at the 0.1 deg level of accuracy by using only carefully selected standard stars or by using other astronomical or laboratory methods.

Dolan, J. F.↗

Monitoring of Observation Errors from Satellite Ozone Instruments in Assimilation

Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Progress report on the ultra heavy cosmic ray experiment (AO178)

The Ultra Heavy Cosmic Ray Experiment (UHCRE) is based on a modular array of 192 side-viewing solid state nuclear track detector stacks. These stacks were mounted in sets of four in 48 pressure vessels employing sixteen peripheral Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) trays. The extended duration of the LDEF mission has resulted in a greatly enhanced scientific yield from the UHCRE. The geometry factor for high energy cosmic ray nuclei, allowing for Earth shadowing, was 30 sq m-sr, giving a total exposure factor of 170 sq m-sr-y at an orbital inclination of 28.4 degrees. Scanning results indicate that about 3000 cosmic ray nuclei in the charge region with Z greater than 65 were collected. This sample is more than ten times the current world data in the field (taken to be the data set from the HEAO-3 mission plus that from the Ariel-6 mission) and is sufficient to provide the world's first statistically significant sample of actinide (Z greater than 88) cosmic rays. Results to date are presented including details of ultra-heavy cosmic ray nuclei, analysis of pre-flight and post-flight calibration events and details of track response in the context of detector temperature history. The integrated effect of all temperature and age related latent track variations cause a maximum charge shift of +/- 0.8 e for uranium and +/- 0.6 e for the platinum-lead group. The precision of charge assignment as a function of energy is derived and evidence for remarkably good charge resolution achieved in the UHCRE is considered. Astrophysical implications of the UHCRE charge spectrum are discussed.

Thompson, A.↗

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Analysis of Multivariate Experimental Data Using A Simplified Regression Model Search Algorithm

A new regression model search algorithm was developed that may be applied to both general multivariate experimental data sets and wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. The algorithm is a simplified version of a more complex algorithm that was originally developed for the NASA Ames Balance Calibration Laboratory. The new algorithm performs regression model term reduction to prevent overfitting of data. It has the advantage that it needs only about one tenth of the original algorithm's CPU time for the completion of a regression model search. In addition, extensive testing showed that the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the simplified algorithm is similar to the prediction accuracy of math models obtained from the original algorithm. The simplified algorithm, however, cannot guarantee that search constraints related to a set of statistical quality requirements are always satisfied in the optimized regression model. Therefore, the simplified algorithm is not intended to replace the original algorithm. Instead, it may be used to generate an alternate optimized regression model of experimental data whenever the application of the original search algorithm fails or requires too much CPU time. Data from a machine calibration of NASA's MK40 force balance is used to illustrate the application of the new search algorithm.

Ulbrich, Norbert M.↗

Calibration of Direct Velocimetry Using Hot Wire Anemometry

We studied the functionality of the IFA300 Hot Wire Anemometry system and its feasibility for the calibration of Direct Estimator Velocimetry (DEV) using Laser Induced Florescence (LIF). The experimental setup consisted of a single-wire hot wire probe measuring one component of velocity, the anemometry computational hardware and software, an HP oscilloscope, and a table fan to produce a simple flow with fluctuations. Measurements were taken at several points in the stream wise and transverse directions in the flow and various parameters recorded such as mean velocities temperature, turbulence intensities, skewness coefficients and flatness coefficients. The IFA300 software also allowed us to perform statistical manipulations such as spectrum analysis on velocities samples and correlation. Utilization of data files, also produced by the anemometry software, and post analysis were performed to produce graphical representations of turbulent intensity versus probe position and a flow field velocity profile. We concluded that the IFA300 Hot Wire Anemometry system is a reliable and functional method for calibration of DEV using LIF. Our future intentions are to set up a test chamber such that both velocity measurement techniques can be applied simultaneously, thus the calibration.

Holland, Michael L.↗

Deep space network software cost estimation model

A parametric software cost estimation model prepared for Jet PRopulsion Laboratory (JPL) Deep Space Network (DSN) Data System implementation tasks is described. The resource estimation mdel modifies and combines a number of existing models. The model calibrates the task magnitude and difficulty, development environment, and software technology effects through prompted responses to a set of approximately 50 questions. Parameters in the model are adjusted to fit JPL software life-cycle statistics.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

In-Flight Calibration of Hitomi Soft X-Ray Spectrometer (3) Effective Area

We present the result of the in-flight calibration of the effective area of the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on board the Hitomi X-ray satellite using an observation of the Crab nebula. We corrected for artifacts when observing high count rate sources with the X-ray microcalorimeter. We then constructed a spectrum in the 0.5–20 keV band, which we modeled with a single power-law continuum attenuated by interstellar extinction. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of the spectral parameters by various calibration items. In the 2–12 keV band, the SXS result is consistent with the literature values in flux (2.20 ± 0.08 × 10(exp −8) erg s(exp-1) cm(exp −2) with a 1 σ statistical uncertainty) but is softer in the power-law index (2.19 ± 0.11). The discrepancy is attributable to the systematic uncertainty of about +6%/−7% and +2%/−5% respectively for the flux and the power-law index. The softer spectrum is affected primarily by the systematic uncertainty of the Dewar gate valve transmission and the event screening.

Tsujimoto, Masahiro↗

Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

Thermal stress analyses are an important aspect in the development of aerospace vehicles at NASA-LaRC. These analyses require knowledge of the temperature distributions within the vehicle structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate thermal property data. The overall goal of this ongoing research effort is to develop methodologies for the estimation of the thermal property data needed to describe the temperature responses of these complex structures. The research strategy undertaken utilizes a building block approach. The idea here is to first focus on the development of property estimation methodologies for relatively simple conditions, such as isotropic materials at constant temperatures, and then systematically modify the technique for the analysis of more and more complex systems, such as anisotropic multi-component systems. The estimation methodology utilized is a statistically based method which incorporates experimental data and a mathematical model of the system. Several aspects of this overall research effort were investigated during the time of the ASEE summer program. One important aspect involved the calibration of the estimation procedure for the estimation of the thermal properties through the thickness of a standard material. Transient experiments were conducted using a Pyrex standard at various temperatures, and then the thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity) were estimated at each temperature. Confidence regions for the estimated values were also determined. These results were then compared to documented values. Another set of experimental tests were conducted on carbon composite samples at different temperatures. Again, the thermal properties were estimated for each temperature, and the results were compared with values obtained using another technique. In both sets of experiments, a 10-15 percent off-set between the estimated values and the previously determined values was found. Another effort was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

Scott, Elaine P.↗

Static Electric Fields and Lightning Over Land and Ocean in Florida Thunderstorms

Natural cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and the charge structure of the associated clouds behave differently over land and ocean. Existing literature has raised questions over the years on the behavior of thunderstorms and lightning over oceans, and there are still open scientific questions. We expand on the observational datasets by obtaining identical electric field observations over coastal land, near-shore, and deep ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods. Oceanic observations were obtained using two 3-meter NOAA buoys that were instrumented with Campbell Scientific electric field mills to measure the static electric fields. These data were compared to selected electric field records from the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). CG lightning occurrence times, locations and peak current values for both on-shore and ocean were provided by the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network. The buoy instruments were first evaluated on-shore at the Florida coast, to calibrate field enhancements and to confirm proper behavior of the system in elevated-field environments. The buoys were then moored 20NM and 120NM off the coast of KSC in February (20NM) and August (120NM) 2014. Statistically larger CG peak currents were reported over the deep ocean for first strokes and for subsequent strokes with new contacts points. Storm-related static fields were significantly larger at both oceanic sites, likely due to decreased screening by nearby space charge. Time-evolution of the static field during storm development and propagation indicated weak or missing lower positive charge regions in most storms that initiated over the deep ocean, supporting one mechanism for the observed high peak currents in negative first strokes over the deep ocean. This project also demonstrated the practicality of off-shore electric field measurements for safety-related decision making at KSC.

Lightning↗