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Goals: 1) Evaluate "what if” scenarios and mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 spread within LANL and 2) perform retrospective analysis to assess accuracy of LANL COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM).
The propagation of a wave pulse due to low-speed impact on a one-dimensional, heterogeneous bar is studied. Due to the dispersive character of the medium, the pulse attenuates as it propagates. This attenuation is studied over propagation distances that are much longer than the size of the microstructure. A homogenized peridynamic material model can be calibrated to reproduce the attenuation and spreading of the wave. The calibration consists of matching the dispersion curve for the heterogeneous material in the limit of long and moderately long wavelengths. It is demonstrated that the peridynamic method reproduces the attenuation of wave pulses predicted by an exact microstructural model over large propagation distances.
The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.
Abstract Ocean heat uptake (OHU) plays an important role in determining the rate of surface warming under CO 2 forcing. We examined the transient response to CO 2 forcing in a set of 30 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and found that the intermodel spread in OHU efficiency largely depends on the base‐state ocean stratification, especially in the Southern Ocean. This dependence is primarily traced to ocean salinity rather than ocean temperature. Models with weaker ocean stratification primarily due to higher upper‐ocean salinity tend to sequester heat into the deeper ocean, leading to a lower rate of surface warming, a primary reason for higher OHU efficiency; the stratification impact on total OHU is secondary. We applied the relationship between salinity and OHU efficiency for an emergent constraint on OHU efficiency, suggesting an OHU efficiency higher than the CMIP6 multimodel average and arguing against models with extremely low efficiency.
The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.
As part of the work Terrafuse developed 1) a model for wildfire risk in California, and 2) a model for downscaled wind fields from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) numerical models. The wildfire model is based on 20 years of historical data and captures the dependence of wildfire incidence and spread on climatic, weather and land-use variables by training a machine learning model. Nonlinear relationships between input features are learned and expressed by the model and model transparency allows features to be ranked and interpreted. The fire model is of use for accurately predicting real-time daily and long-term wildfire risk for use cases in energy and insurance. The downscaled wind model is a spatio-temporal deep learning model that emulates the influence of high-resolution variables on wind speed, allowing coarse-resolution operational NWP models to be accurately expressed on fine grids at high resolution, with application to wind energy and weather forecasting.
This work addresses spreading pressure dependence of Real Adsorbed Solution Theory (RAST) for mixed-gas adsorption equilibria using generalized Langmuir (gL) isotherm. Considering vacant sites as an integral part of competitive multicomponent adsorption on a constant adsorbent surface area, the gL isotherm properly accounts for surface heterogeneity and loading, adsorbate composition, and temperature dependence. We show the spreading pressure dependence of adsorbate activity coefficient expression in the RAST framework can be generated from the gL isotherm. The procedure is illustrated with a spreading pressure dependent adsorption Nonrandom Furthermore, two-Liquid activity coefficient model, and the results are validated for ten binary mixed-gas adsorption equilibria systems including two highly nonideal azeotropic systems.
Here, we describe a time evolution algorithm for quantum spin chains whose Hamiltonians are composed of an infinite uniform left and right bulk part, and an arbitrary finite region in between. The left and right bulk parts are allowed to be different from each other. The algorithm is based on the time-dependent variational principle (TDVP) of matrix product states. It is inversion-free and very simple to adapt from an existing TDVP code for finite systems. The importance of working in the projective Hilbert space is highlighted. We study the quantum Ising model as a benchmark and an illustrative example. The spread of information after a local quench is studied in both the ballistic and the diffusive case. We also offer a derivation of TDVP directly from symplectic geometry.
Abstract Background Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change. Methods We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan for Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis , and Cx. restuans from existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines. Results We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individual Culex species, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects. Conclusions Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal. Graphical Abstract
Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin’s index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.
This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.
When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.
In string theory with flux compactifications, anthropic selection for structure formation from a discretuum of vacuum energy values provides at present our only understanding of the tiny yet positive value of the cosmological constant. We apply similar reasoning to a toy model of the multiverse restricted to vacua with the MSSM as the low energy effective theory. Here, one expects a statistical selection favoring large soft SUSY breaking terms leading to a derived value of the weak scale in each pocket universe (with appropriate electroweak symmetry breaking) which differs from the weak scale as measured in our universe. In contrast, the SUSY preserving μ parameter is selected uniformly on a log scale as is consistent with the distribution of SM fermion masses: this favors smaller values of μ. An anthropic selection of the weak scale to within a factor of a few of our measured value — in order to produce complex nuclei as we know them (atomic principle) — provides statistical predictions for Higgs and sparticle masses in accord with LHC measurements. The statistical selection then more often leads to (radiatively-driven) natural SUSY models over the Standard Model or finely-tuned SUSY models such as mSUGRA/CMSSM, split, mini-split, spread, high scale or PeV SUSY. The predicted Higgs and superparticle spectra might be testable at HL-LHC or ILC via higgsino pair production but is certainly testable at higher energy hadron colliders with $ \sqrt{s}$ ~ 30–100 TeV.
Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.
To demonstrate the feasibility of automating UED operation and diagnosing the machine performance in real time, a two-stage machine learning (ML) model based on self-consistent start-to-end simulations has been implemented. This model will not only provide the machine parameters with adequate precision, toward the full automation of the UED instrument, but also make real-time electron beam information available as single-shot nondestructive diagnostics. Furthermore, based on a deep understanding of the root connection between the electron beam properties and the features of Bragg-diffraction patterns, we have applied the hidden symmetry as model constraints, successfully improving the accuracy of energy spread prediction by a factor of five and making the beam divergence prediction two times faster. The capability enabled by the global optimization via ML provides us with better opportunities for discoveries using near-parallel, bright, and ultrafast electron beams for single-shot imaging. It also enables directly visualizing the dynamics of defects and nanostructured materials, which is impossible using present electron-beam technologies.
The energetics and kinetics of phenalene and phenalenyl growth reactions were studied theoretically. Rate constants of phenalene and phenalenyl H-abstraction and C 2 H 2 addition to the formed radicals were evaluated through quantum-chemical and rate-theory calculations. The obtained values, assigned to all π radicals, were tested in deterministic and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of aromatics growth under conditions of laminar premixed flames. Kekulé and non-Kekulé structures of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) evolving in the stochastic simulations were identified by on-the-fly constrained optimization. The numerical results demonstrated an increased PAH growth and qualitatively reproduced experimental observations of Homann and co-workers of non-decaying PAH concentrations with nearly equal abundances of even and odd carbon-atom PAHs. The analysis revealed that the PAH growth proceeds via alternating and sterically diverse acetylene and methyl HACA additions. Furthermore, the rapid and diverse spreading in the PAH population supports a nucleation model as PAH dimerization, assisted by the non-equilibrium phenomena, forming planar aromatics first and then transitioning to the PAH–PAH stacking with size.
Charge breeders were developed more than 20 years ago in the context of radioactive ion beam (RIB) production. The main goal is to boost the charge state of a singly charged RIB to a higher value matching the A/Q of a post-accelerator. In that way, the RIB produced at some tens of keV can efficiently be accelerated to energies in a range of few MeV/u up to several tens of MeV/u, which is of interest for nuclear structure and nuclear astrophysics experiments. Two families of charge breeders have been developed: one based on Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Sources (ECRISs) suitable for Continuous Wave (CW) operation and another built around Electron Beam Ion Sources (EBISs) used for pulsed post-accelerators. For many years, experimental studies have been carried out to enhance the charge breeding process and improve the extracted beam quality, i.e., purity, intensity, emittance, and time structure. The evolution of the charge breeders is also closely related to the emergence of new facilities delivering even more exotic beams. Diagnostic tools, such as Faraday cups, beam profile monitors, and emittance scanners, are mandatory to tune the machines and evaluate their performances. However, to go beyond that, a better understanding of plasma physics (in ECRIS) and electron-ion interactions (in EBIS), as well as the 1+ beam characteristics, for instance, energy spread transverse emittance, is needed. Therefore, simulation codes modeling the physics phenomena in both type of charge breeders were developed to support the understanding of experimental outputs and to gain insights into non-observable parameters. Nevertheless, more sophisticated diagnostic tools are required to improve the charge breeding performance and to extend the potential applications toward new RIB facilities. This Review will present the two kinds of charge breeders and their technical evolutions. It will review the diagnostic tools and simulation codes employed for operation and evaluation of the internal physics processes.
Calculating the effects of coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) is one of the most computationally expensive tasks in accelerator physics. Here, we use convolutional neural networks (CNNs), along with a latent conditional diffusion (LCD) model, trained on physics-based simulations to speed up calculations. Specifically, we produce the 3D CSR wakefields generated by electron bunches in circular orbit in the steady-state condition. Two datasets are used for training and testing the models: wakefields generated by three-dimensional Gaussian electron distributions and wakefields from a sum of up to 25 three-dimensional Gaussian distributions. The CNNs are able to accurately produce the 3D wakefields ∼250–1000 times faster than the numerical calculations, while the LCD achieves a gain of a factor of ∼34. We also test the extrapolation and out-of-distribution generalization ability of the models. They generalize well on distributions with larger spreads than what they were trained on but struggle with smaller spreads.