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DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Expanded Study Results DSO+T Study: Volume 5

The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study investigates the engineering and economic performance of a transactive energy retail market coordinating a high penetration of customer-side flexible energy assets. The study seeks to answer whether such an implementation is cost effective for customers, recovers sufficient revenue for DSOs, and is equally applicable and beneficial to a range of flexible asset types, renewable generation scenarios, and market assumptions. This report volume provides a detailed set of results for the DSO+T study extending results presented in Volumes 1, 2, and 4. The engineering and economic performance of the transactive energy scheme is presented for two separate flexible asset deployments: flexible loads (HVAC units and residential water heaters) and behind-the-meter batteries. The results of each transactive case are compared to a business-as-usual case. These cases are subject to two different renewable generation scenarios, a moderate renewable generation scenario, representative of current levels of renewable generation deployment, and a future high renewables scenario, including the increased deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaic and electric vehicles. The transactive coordination scheme is shown to produce effective and stable control and decrease peak loads 9–15%. The resulting annual demand flexibility provides net economic savings of $3.3–5.0B per year for a region the size of Texas. Detailed analysis shows that net benefits were seen for a range of distribution system operator, customer, and flexible asset types. Both participating customer (with transactive flexible assets) and nonparticipating customers (with nonflexible assets) see reductions in annual utility bills and net annual energy expenses in the range of 10–16%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular insights and future frontiers in cell photosensitization for solar-driven CO 2 conversion

The conversion of CO 2 to value-added products powered with solar energy is an ideal solution to establishing a closed carbon cycle. Combining microorganisms with light-harvesting nanomaterials into photosynthetic biohybrid systems (PBSs) presents an approach to reaching this solution. Metabolic pathways precisely evolved for CO 2 fixation selectively and reliably generate products. Nanomaterials harvest solar light and biocompatibly associate with microorganisms owing to similar lengths scales. Although this is a nascent field, a variety of approaches have been implemented encompassing different microorganisms and nanomaterials. To advance the field in an impactful manner, it is paramount to understand the molecular underpinnings of PBSs. In this perspective, we highlight studies inspecting charge uptake pathways and singularities in photosensitized cells. We discuss further analyses to more completely elucidate these constructs, and we focus on criteria to be met for designing photosensitizing nanomaterials. As a result, we advocate for the pairing of microorganisms with naturally occurring and highly biocompatible mineral-based semiconductor nanomaterials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Why Are There so Few Reports of High-Energy Electron Drift Resonances? Role of Radial Phase Space Density Gradients

Models of monochromatic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) ultralow frequency (ULF) wave interactions with high energy (greater than ~1 MeV) electrons predict drift resonant interactions that can cause rapid radial transport and acceleration. There are few reports of electron drift resonance at energies greater than ~1 MeV, in contrast to lower energies; moreover, all previous reports occur in the aftermath of interplanetary shocks. These two facts are difficult to reconcile with theory and numerical simulations predicting that greater than ~1 MeV drift resonances should occur more often and in a wider variety of driving conditions. In this study, we show that a combination of observational sampling biases and nominal radial phase space density gradients is one explanation for this discrepancy between theory and observations. In particular, we examine electron dynamics in two case studies with very similar satellite coverage, solar wind conditions, and Pc5 wave properties, yet with different radial phase space density profiles. Using global wave and particle observations, we show that the events have vastly different particle responses despite having similar wave properties. Placing these results in context with past studies, we further show here that nominal radial PSD gradients near geostationary orbit can mask the expected drift resonance particle response and explain (1) the small number of past greater than ~1 MeV drift resonance reports and (2) the restriction of these reports to interplanetary shock events. We argue that future observational studies characterizing radial transport via drift resonance should examine global particle dynamics, including observations of the radial phase space density profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Employing Machine Learning for New Particle Formation Identification and Mechanistic Analysis: Insights From a Six‐Year Observational Study in the Southern Great Plains

We present a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to automatically identify new particle formation (NPF) events and analyze key atmospheric factors associated with their occurrence and growth. We applied ML to detect NPF events using start time and particle concentrations across size ranges, while identifying atmospheric variables including ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity (SRI), wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height, total organics, sulfate, nitrate, total surface area concentration, sulfur dioxide, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). We analyzed a 6-year data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Using long-term ground-based measurements, we identified NPF events and applied Random Forest Classifiers, which achieved 90%–95% prediction accuracy. Feature importance analysis highlighted SRI, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the most influential variables, contributing normalized importances of 28%, 17%, and 10%. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) indicated that higher SRI and lower relative humidity were critical in promoting NPF formation at SGP. Seasonally, NPF events were more frequent in winter (42.1%) and spring (35.5%), and least in summer (4.0%). Particle growth rates also exhibited a seasonal variation, with the lowest in winter (below 2 nm hr −1 ) and highest in late spring and early summer (exceeding 5 nm hr −1 ). Temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, and aerosol properties were the primary factors of growth rate variability. This study advances predictive modeling of NPF, offers insights for future campaign deployments, and demonstrates the effectiveness of ML in understanding the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector

Sharply reducing carbon emissions is imperative to prevent the worst effects of climate change. Yet even in the power sector—often viewed as the lynchpin to economy-wide decarbonization, and where low-carbon solutions are increasingly plentiful and cost-effective—the pace and scale of the required transformation can be daunting. A review of historical trends, however, shows the progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. Fifteen years ago, many business-as-usual projections anticipated that annual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from power supply in the United States would reach 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020. In fact, direct power-sector CO 2 emissions in 2020 were 1,450 MMT—roughly 50% below the earlier projections. By this metric, in only 15 years the country’s power sector has gone halfway to zero emissions. Other metrics also evolved differently than projected: total consumer electricity costs (i.e., bills) were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher. Economic, technical, and policy factors contributed to this success, including sectoral changes, energy efficiency, wind and solar, continued operations of the nuclear fleet, and coal-to-gas fuel switching. This historical record demonstrates the ability of technological and policy changes to set the power sector on a dramatically different emissions trajectory. Past success, however, does not trivialize the challenges that remain for further decarbonization in the power sector and beyond. Nor does it offer a specific roadmap for how best to achieve additional power-sector emissions reductions. Numerous challenges confront a zero-emissions pathway, and future strategies will likely differ from those of the past. Many recent studies have assessed how to make further progress in decarbonizing the power sector on the pathway to decarbonizing the economy as a whole. We summarize the core results of those studies, but the primary goal of this report is to highlight the progress that has already been made in reducing power-sector emissions. As the country maps out a plan for further decarbonization, experience from the past 15 years offers two central lessons. First, policy and technology advancement are imperative to achieving significant emissions reductions. Second, our ability to predict the future is limited, and so it will be crucial to adapt as we gain policy experience and as technologies advance in unexpected ways.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study

To better understand distributed wind opportunities in the United States, researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory explored cost, performance, and valuation benchmarks necessary for distributed wind to achieve widespread commercial viability in the United States by 2035. Building on DOE's prior benchmark report "Assessing the Future of Distributed Wind: Opportunities for Behind-the-Meter Projects", the new Distributed Wind Futures Study employs higher-resolution data and new modeling techniques to highlight geographic trends in technical and economic potential and to compare the cost and performance of distribution-connected, megawatt-scale wind applications (referred to as "front-of-the-meter" applications) and behind-the-meter systems, thereby informing the case for investment. The report identifies the best locations and sectors for behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter applications and provides data to inform the trade-offs consumers face when deciding between distributed wind and solar photovoltaic (PV).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study [Slides]

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

battery↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adversarial super-resolution of climatological wind and solar data

Accurate and high-resolution data reflecting different climate scenarios are vital for policy makers when deciding on the development of future energy resources, electrical infrastructure, transportation networks, agriculture, and many other societally important systems. However, state-of-the-art long-term global climate simulations are unable to resolve the spatiotemporal characteristics necessary for resource assessment or operational planning. We introduce an adversarial deep learning approach to super resolve wind velocity and solar irradiance outputs from global climate models to scales sufficient for renewable energy resource assessment. Using adversarial training to improve the physical and perceptual performance of our networks, we demonstrate up to a 50 × resolution enhancement of wind and solar data. In validation studies, the inferred fields are robust to input noise, possess the correct small-scale properties of atmospheric turbulent flow and solar irradiance, and retain consistency at large scales with coarse data. An additional advantage of our fully convolutional architecture is that it allows for training on small domains and evaluation on arbitrarily-sized inputs, including global scale. We conclude with a super-resolution study of renewable energy resources based on climate scenario data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ab Initio Study of Atomic and Electronic Structure of Promising Ba4XMn3O12 (X = Nb, Ce, Pr) Oxides for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

The two-step metal oxide water-splitting cycle is one of the most viable approach for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen (STCH) production. Challenges exist in finding suitable oxides that can satisfy thermodynamics of the STCH redox cycle under viable range of temperatures and partial pressures. Recently, BXM family members, i.e., Ba4NbMn3O12 (BNM), Ba4CeMn3O12 (BCM), Ba4PrMn3O12 (BPM) are discovered to exhibit promising STCH performance. However, the magnetic degrees of freedom of their experimental crystal structures is not characterized, and only hypothetical models exist for their electronic structure. We performed Monte-Carlo sampling for the magnetic spin arrangement of Mn atoms to provide explicit atomic structure models for their ground state 12R polytype and determined the most stable spin configuration for each member after structure relaxation using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. We also elucidate the most stable charge configuration (Mn3+/Mn4+ arrangement) for BNM among the existing hypothesis in literature. We investigate these strongly correlated oxides using different levels of theory (DFT+U, Hybrid-DFT) to develop better understanding of their electronic structure. These calculations allowed us to develop a model based on molecular orbital interactions that help explain the observed changes in their experimental x-ray spectroscopy measurements. Thereby, help link differences in electronic structure of BXM family members to their varying water-splitting behavior. These structure models will further facilitate future in-depth defect studies to model STCH redox cycle of these oxides.

atomic and magnetic structure↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental and economic optima of solar home systems design: A combined LCA and LCC approach

Here, we compare the economic and environmental optimal design of Solar Home Systems (SHSs) and explore the role of economic incentives (such as tariffs and technology costs) in approximating the two optima. To achieve that, we present a methodology for the environmental and economic evaluation of grid-connected SHSs: user-scale electric systems involving a photovoltaic (PV) power system and a battery energy storage system. The proposed methodology is based on a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization, life cycle assessment and life cycle costing. This methodological framework is applied to a case study involving a typical SHS installation in Italy. The results of the environmental optimal design brought to the evaluation of a 3.25 kW PV assisted by 8.66 kWh of nickel cobalt manganese batteries, whereas the costs of the SHS are minimized by a small PV system (less than 1 kW). Results underline that the environmental optimal configurations rely on battery technologies, which entails a significant cost compared to the grid connection. In contrast, the economic optimal design solutions is less impactful than the grid mix both from an environmental and economic points of view. Thanks to a reduction of batteries and PV costs, the environmental impact of the economic optimal design is expected to decrease in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of CO 2 Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF)

Accurate partitioning of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 to gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) is crucial for understanding carbon cycle dynamics under changing climate. However, it remains as a long-standing problem in global ecology due to lack of independent constraining information for the two offsetting component fluxes. solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), a mechanistic proxy for photosynthesis, holds great promise to improve NEE partitioning by constraining GPP. We developed a parsimonious SIF-based approach for NEE partitioning and examined its performance using synthetic simulations and field measurements. This approach outperforms conventional approaches in reproducing simulated GPP and R eco , especially under high vapor pressure deficit. For field measurements, it results in lower daytime GPP and R eco than conventional approaches. Furthermore, this study made the first attempt to demonstrate SIF's potential for improving NEE partitioning accuracy and sets the stage for future efforts to examine its robustness and scalability under real-world environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind-induced torsion of parabolic trough collectors in operation

Parabolic trough collector (PTC) systems, a type of concentrating solar power (CSP), use parabolic mirrors to reflect the sun's rays toward an absorber tube to heat the fluid inside. PTCs track the sun throughout the day and are sensitive to angular misalignment, which reduces optical performance. Torsion of the PTC, exacerbated by wind loading, contributes to angular misalignment, which has been quantified by previous studies using numerical simulations and experimental tests. However, angular misalignment due to torsion and wind loading has not yet been studied in an operational plant, which can experience more extreme and variable conditions. This study characterizes the angular misalignment due to torsion at three rows of the Nevada Solar One CSP plant and investigates the influence of wind loading. These findings reveal substantial torsion along the PTC support structure that depends on wind conditions and orientation. Strong winds perpendicular to the PTCs increase the median angular displacement of the outermost row by up to 18 mrad and increase the standard deviation by up to 8 mrad when compared to weak wind conditions. These findings can inform enhanced PTC design, controls and modeling that will improve the performance, reliability and bankability of future CSP plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and photoinduced chemistry of the aromatic Criegee intermediate, benzaldehyde oxide: Implications for indoor air quality

Essential oils contain a complex mixture of volatile organic compounds, ranging from terpenes to aromatics. When released into the indoor air environment or into the atmosphere, they may undergo oxidation to generate complex reactive intermediates that affect indoor air quality. Cinnamaldehyde is one such aromatic molecule that is abundant in essential oils. When released into the indoor air environment, it may undergo oxidation to form a carbonyl oxide (Criegee intermediate) with an aromatic substituent: benzaldehyde oxide. In this manuscript, we present a high-level quantum chemical study that shows that, unlike smaller atmospherically relevant Criegee intermediates, benzaldehyde oxide is expected to undergo solar photolysis on timescales that are competitive with its ground state unimolecular and bimolecular chemistry. We show that aromatic substitution leads to a drastic bathochromic shift in the spectroscopically relevant excited states, revealing that photolysis in the indoor or outdoor environment should not be neglected when modeling the climate and air quality implications of Criegee intermediates with extended conjugation. Here, we predict a range of products that may be important for forming lower volatility compounds via tropospherically relevant photochemistry. To motivate future experimental validation of our results, we propose a viable synthetic procedure of the relevant precursor for generating and stabilizing benzaldehyde oxide.

atmospheric photochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

LH CO 2 MENT Colorado Project (Final Report)

The objective of Electricore’s pre-FEED project “LH CO 2 MENT COLORADO PROJECT” is to accelerate the implementation of a 1.5 million tonnes per year (TPY), and first-of-a-kind (FOAK) at world scale, Svante VeloxoTherm™ carbon capture plant. This project represents a quantum leap to a large-scale facility that will launch Svante’s carbon capture technology into the next era of accomplishments and market acceptance. By completing the Front-End Loading (FEL) Feasibility Study Report (FEL-2) for a fit-for-purpose design at the HOLCIM cement plant, located near Florence Colorado, USA, this technology can be proven as the future of large-scale deployment for carbon capture and storage. This carbon capture plant was designed with the goal of reaching a target of near Net Zero Emissions by capturing 90% of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant and from the boiler which produces steam required to regenerate the adsorbent. Additionally, this project will be leveraging a renewable Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) using solar energy to acquire power at the target price of 0.04 $/kWh or less. In its current configuration CO 2 emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant is around 700 – 800 kg/ton of clinker produced. The proposed new carbon capture plant will allow a reduction of CO 2 emissions to about 100 kg/ton of clinker produced. The scope of work consists of the process design and capital & operating cost estimation (Class IV) for a total plant capacity of 4,750 TPD of pipeline grade CO 2 . The Svante VeloxoTherm™ technology is comprised of a Rotary Adsorption Machine (RAM) for intensified Thermal Swing Adsorption (TSA) using Structured Adsorbent Beds (SABs) and related Balance of Plant (BOP), including CO 2 compression. A business case (financial analysis) evaluation has been undertaken for the Owner’s management review. Recommendations on how best to proceed to the next stage of the project have been conveyed and are documented within this report. This analysis has relied on a detailed and comprehensive Project Financial Model, evaluating the Total Project IRR (after tax, unlevered, and including all forecast 45Q PTCs and 100% tax efficiency) – the project financial analysis (as opposed to standard TEA analysis) only considered a 12 year plant economic lifetime as a result of 45Q being the sole driver considered at this stage. The Total Project IRR was evaluated across a large number of potential scenarios. The evaluation demonstrated that if the 45Q PTD is increased to $85/MT for sequestration, there are a large number of feasible scenarios which demonstrate economic returns.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensing Plant Photosynthesis Using Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence: From Chloroplasts to the Globe

Photosynthesis is the fundamental biological process that introduced oxygen into Earth's atmosphere and continues to power life, from the earliest single-celled organisms to entire global ecosystems. Yet, measuring photosynthesis across scales has been challenging because traditional techniques have not transcended scales. The emergence of remote-sensing techniques to measure solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a unique approach to estimate photosynthesis across spatiotemporal scales, representing a new age for optical remote sensing to study photosynthesis and shaping the decades of satellite SIF research. Here, focusing on spatiotemporal scales, we review the mechanisms that drive the relationship between SIF and photosynthesis. Remotely sensed SIF is modulated by biological drivers, environmental drivers, the interaction between biological and environmental drivers, and the viewing geometry. Studying fluorescence at small scales provides the ecophysiological understanding needed to disentangle the biological and environmental drivers of SIF at larger scales. Leveraging progress in satellite SIF, future research should focus on cross-scale mechanistic understanding of the drivers of SIF and using SIF as a metric for plant function beyond photosynthesis.

ecophysiology↗