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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Seismic Forecasting of Solar Activity

We have developed and improved helioseismic imaging techniques of the far-side of the Sun as part of a synoptic monitor of solar activity. In collaboration with the MIDI team at Stanford University we are routinely applying our analysis to images within 24 hours of their acquisition by SOHO. For the first time, real-time seismic maps of large active regions on the Sun's far surface are publicly available. The synoptic images show examples of active regions persisting for one or more solar rotations, as well as those initially detected forming on the solar far side. Until recently, imaging the far surface of the Sun has been essentially blind to active regions more than about 50 degrees from the antipode of disk center. In a paper recently accepted for publication, we have demonstrated how acoustic travel-time perturbations may be mapped over the entire hemisphere of the Sun facing away from the Earth, including the polar regions. In addition to offering significant improvements to ongoing space weather forecasting efforts, the procedure offers the possibility of local seismic monitoring of both the temporal and spatial variations in the acoustic properties of the Sun over the entire far surface.

Braun, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS1994

The one hundredth year of Rudolf Wolf's death: Do we have the correct reconstruction of solar activity?

In the one hundred years since Wolf died, little effort has gone into research to see if improved reconstructions of sunspot numbers can be made. We have gathered more than 349,000 observations of daily sunspot group counts from more than 350 observers active from 1610 to 1993. Based upon group counts alone, it is possible to make an objective and homogeneous reconstruction of sunspot numbers. From our study, it appears that the Sun has steadily increased in activity since 1700 with the exception of a brief decrease in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1823). The significant results here are the greater depth of the Dalton Minimum, the generally lower activity throughout the 1700's, and the gradual rise in activity from the Maunder Minimum to the present day. This solar activity reconstruction is quite similar to those Wolf published before 1868 rather than the revised Wolf reconstructions after 1873 which used geomagnetic fluctuations.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar activity and total atmospheric ozone

Analyses are presented of the association between two parameters of solar activity (Lyman-alpha and 10.7 cm flux) and global total ozone as determined from Nimbus observations for the period April-December 1970 (IRIS observations), and April 1970-April 1972 (BUV observations); and between Lyman-alpha and global total ozone as observed at ground stations and the ozone concentration in the lower and middle stratosphere in the subtropics for the period 1969-1972. It is shown that the high correlations discussed in other published studies between these solar paramters and nine months of IRIS data resulted from the use of a very limited, seasonally unfiltered data set.

London, J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Relationships between solar activity and climate change

The relationship between recurrent droughts in the High Plains of the United States and the double sunspot cycle is discussed in detail. It is suggested that high solar activity is generally related to an increase in meridional circulation and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter, and the effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Roberts, W. O.↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Great Solar Active Region NOAA 12192: Helicity Transport, Filament Formation, and Impact on the Polar Field

The solar active region (AR), NOAA 12192, appeared in 2014 October as the largest AR in 24 years. Here we examine the counterintuitive nature of two diffusion-driven processes in the region: the role of helicity buildup in the formation of a major filament, and the relationship between the effects of supergranular diffusion and meridional flow on the AR and on the polar field. Quantitatively, calculations of current helicity and magnetic twist from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) vector magnetograms indicate that, though AR 12192 emerged with negative helicity, positive helicity from subsequent flux emergence, consistent with the hemispheric sign-preference of helicity, increased over time within large-scale, weak-field regions such as those near the polarity inversion line (PIL). Morphologically, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly observations of filament barbs, sigmoidal patterns, and bases of Fe xii stalks initially exhibited signatures of negative helicity, and the long filament that subsequently formed had a strong positive helicity consistent with the helicity buildup along the PIL. We find from full-disk HMI magnetograms that AR 12192's leading positive flux was initially closer to the equator but, owing either to the region’s magnetic surroundings or to its asymmetric flux density distribution, was transported poleward more quickly on average than its trailing negative flux, contrary to the canonical pattern of bipole flux transport. This behavior caused the AR to have a smaller effect on the polar fields than expected and enabled the formation of the very long neutral line where the filament formed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solar activity and the weather

The attempts during the past century to establish a connection between solar activity and the weather are discussed; some critical remarks about the quality of much of the literature in this field are given. Several recent investigations are summarized. Use of the solar/interplanetary magnetic sector structure in future investigations is suggested to add an element of cohesiveness and interaction to these investigations.

Wilcox, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Physical properties of individual coronal loops in a solar active region observed in the XUV

The physical properties of individual coronal loops in a solar active region observed in the XUV by the slitless objective grating spectroheliograph on board Skylab are investigated. Spectroheliograms of the normal active loop region McMath 12378 reveal three distinctive structural groups of loops in different temperature ranges, namely (1) small compact and smaller loops at temperatures of about 2,000,000 K observed in Fe XV and Fe XVI; (2) large Ne VII and Mg IX loops at temperatures from 500,000 to 1,000,000 K; and (3) chromospheric ribbons in He II and H alpha. The temperature of the active region is found to be uniform at about 2,000,000 K in the loops and background while loop density is found to be 3.5 x 10 to the 9th/cu cm in the loops and 2.5 x 10 to the 9th/cu cm in the surrounding background. Significant changes in the active region are observed in 24 h, although the gross temperature density structures of many loops do not show changes in 7 min. Gas pressure within the coronal loops is found to be about 40% greater than that of the background plasma. The observed loop parameters are noted to be consistent with flux-limited models of density enhancement in magnetic flux tubes and thus no esoteric heating function is required.

Cheng, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS 1992–2015

The purpose of this Letter is to address a blindspot in our knowledge of solar active region (AR) statistics. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published results showing the variation of the Mount Wilson magnetic classifications as a function of solar cycle based on modern observations. We show statistics for all ARs reported in the daily Solar Region Summary from 1992 January 1 to 2015 December 31. We find that the α and β class ARs (including all sub-groups, e.g., βγ, βδ) make up fractions of approximately 20% and 80% of the sample, respectively. This fraction is relatively constant during high levels of activity; however, an increase in the α fraction to about 35% and and a decrease in the β fraction to about 65% can be seen near each solar minimum and are statistically significant at the 2σ level. Over 30% of all ARs observed during the years of solar maxima were appended with the classifications γ and/or δ, while these classifications account for only a fraction of a percent during the years near the solar minima. This variation in the AR types indicates that the formation of complex ARs may be due to the pileup of frequent emergence of magnetic flux during solar maximum, rather than the emergence of complex, monolithic flux structures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

MAGNETIC HELICITY AND ENERGY SPECTRA OF A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION

We compute for the first time the magnetic helicity and energy spectra of the solar active region NOAA 11158 during 2011 February 11-15 at 20° southern heliographic latitude using observational photospheric vector magnetograms. We adopt the isotropic representation of the Fourier-transformed two-point correlation tensor of the magnetic field. The sign of the magnetic helicity turns out to be predominantly positive at all wavenumbers. This sign is consistent with what is theoretically expected for the southern hemisphere. The magnetic helicity normalized to its theoretical maximum value, here referred to as relative helicity, is around 4% and strongest at intermediate wavenumbers of k ≈ 0.4 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to a scale of 2π/k ≈ 16 Mm. The same sign and a similar value are also found for the relative current helicity evaluated in real space based on the vertical components of magnetic field and current density. The modulus of the magnetic helicity spectrum shows a k {sup –11/3} power law at large wavenumbers, which implies a k {sup –5/3} spectrum for the modulus of the current helicity. A k {sup –5/3} spectrum is also obtained for the magnetic energy. The energy spectra evaluated separately from the horizontal and vertical fields agree for wavenumbers below 3 Mm{sup –1}, corresponding to scales above 2 Mm. This gives some justification to our assumption of isotropy and places limits resulting from possible instrumental artifacts at small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar activity

Statistical prediction methods for short-term (months) and long-term (years) forecasting of solar activity were studied. The comparisons indicate that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by lining up the maximum (or minimums, or both) by cycle number. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

Holland, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

VLA observations of solar active regions at closely spaced frequencies - Evidence for thermal cyclotron line emission

VLA observations of a solar active region at 10 closely spaced frequencies between 1440 and 1720 MHz are presented. The synthesis maps show, on two successive days, significant changes in the brightness temperature within this narrow frequency range. It is shown that these changes cannot be due to either thermal bremsstrahlung or gyroresonance emission from a coronal loop in wich the temperature, density, or magnetic field varies monotonically with height. Instead, the brightness spectrum is attributed to cyclotron line emission from a narrow layer, where the temperature is elevated above the surrounding part of the loop.

Willson, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

High Resolution Soft X-Ray Spectroscopy and the Quest for the Hot (5-10 MK) Plasma in Solar Active Regions

We discuss the diagnostics available to study the 5–10 MK plasma in the solar corona, which is key to understanding the heating in the cores of solar active regions. We present several simulated spectra, and show that excellent diagnostics are available in the soft X-rays, around 100 A, as six ionisation stages of Fe can simultaneously be observed, and electron densities derived, within a narrow spectral region. As this spectral range is almost unexplored, we present an analysis of available and simulated spectra, to compare the hot emission with the cooler component. We adopt recently designed multilayers to present estimates of count rates in the hot lines, with a baseline spectrometer design. Excellent count rates are found, opening up the exciting opportunity to obtain high-resolution spectroscopy of hot plasma.

Giulio Del Zanna↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coronal Magnetography of Solar Active Regions Using Coordinated SOHO/CDS and VLA Observations

The purpose of this project is to apply the coronal magnetographic technique to SOHO (Solar Heliospheric Observatory) /CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer) EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation) and coordinated VLA microwave observations of solar active regions to derive the strength and structure of the coronal magnetic field. A CDS observing plan was developed for obtaining spectra needed to derive active region differential emission measures (DEMs) required for coronal magnetography. VLA observations were proposed and obtained. SOHO JOP 100 was developed, tested, approved, and implemented to obtain coordinated CDS (Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer)/EIT (Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope)/ VLA (Very Large Array)/ TRACE (Transition Region and Coronal Explorer)/ SXT (Solar X Ray Telescope) observations of active regions on April 12, May 9, May 13, and May 23. Analysis of all four data sets began, with heaviest concentration on COS data. It is found that 200-pixel (14 A in NIS1) wavelength windows are appropriate for extracting broadened Gaussian line profile fit parameters for lines including Fe XIV at 334.2, Fe XVI at 335.4, Fe XVI at 360.8, and Mg IX at 368.1 over the 4 arcmin by 4 arcmin CDS field of view. Extensive efforts were focused on learning and applying were focused on learning and applying CDS software, and including it in new IDL procedures to carry out calculations relating to coronal magnetography. An important step is to extract Gaussian profile fits to all the lines needed to derive the DEM in each spatial pixel of any given active region. The standard CDS absolute intensity calibration software was applied to derived intensity images, revealing that ratios between density-insensitive lines like Fe XVI 360.8/335.4 yield good agreement with theory. However, the resulting absolute intensities of those lines are very high, indicating that revisions to the CDS absolute intensity calibrations remain to be included in the CDS software, an essential step to deriving reliable coronal magnetograms. With lessons learned and high quality data obtained during the past year, coronal magnetography will be successfully pursued under my new SOHO GI program.

Brosius, Jeffrey W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

3D-Stereoscopic Analysis of Solar Active Region Loops: I: SoHo/EIT Observations at Temperatures of 1.0-1.5 MK

The three-dimensional (3D) structure of solar active region NOAA 7986 observed on 1996 August 30 with the Extrem-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SoHO) is analyzed. We develop a new method of Dynamic Stereoscopy to reconstruct the 3D geometry of dynamically changing loops, which allows us to determine the orientation of the loop plane with respect to the line-of-sight, a prerequisite to correct properly for projection effects in 3D loop models. With this method and the filter-ratio technique applied to EIT 171 A and 195 A images we determine the 3D coordinates (x(s), y(s), z(s)), the loop width) w(s), the electron density n(sub e)(s), and the electron temperature T(sub e)(s) as function of the loop length s for 30 loop segments. Fitting the loop densities with an exponential density model n(sub e)(h) we find that the so inferred scale height temperatures, T(sub e)(sup lambda) = 1.22 +/- 0.23 MK, match closely the EIT filter-ratio temperatures, T(sub e)(sup FIT) = 1.21 +/- 0.06 MK. We conclude that these rather large-scale loops (with heights of h approx. equals 50 - 200 Mm) that dominate EIT 171 A images are close to thermal equilibrium. Most of the loops show no significant thickness variation w(s), but many exhibit a trend of increasing temperature (dT/ds greater than 0) above the footpoint.

Aschwanden, Markus J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗