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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Large Eddy Simulations of Severe Convection Induced Turbulence

Convective storms can pose a serious risk to aviation operations since they are often accompanied by turbulence, heavy rain, hail, icing, lightning, strong winds, and poor visibility. They can cause major delays in air traffic due to the re-routing of flights, and by disrupting operations at the airports in the vicinity of the storm system. In this study, the Terminal Area Simulation System is used to simulate five different convective events ranging from a mesoscale convective complex to isolated storms. The occurrence of convection induced turbulence is analyzed from these simulations. The validation of model results with the radar data and other observations is reported and an aircraft-centric turbulence hazard metric calculated for each case is discussed. The turbulence analysis showed that large pockets of significant turbulence hazard can be found in regions of low radar reflectivity. Moderate and severe turbulence was often found in building cumulus turrets and overshooting tops.

Ahmad, Nash'at↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96°C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42°C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2011

Exploring the Use of Radar for a Physically Based Lightning Cessation Nowcasting Tool

NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms, we believe that dual-polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and hydrometeors. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can these ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far, our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature encompassed the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the case analyses suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of results will be presented.

Schultz, Elise V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The semiannual variation of great geomagnetic storms and the postshock Russell-Mcpherron effect preceding coronal mass ejecta

Recent results indicate that the intense southward interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs) responsible for great storms can reside in the postshock plasma preceding the driver gas of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as well as in the driver gas itself. It is proposed here that strong southward fields in the postshock flow result from a major increase in the Russell-McPherron polarity effect through a systematic pattern of compression and draping within the ecliptic plane. Differential compression at the shock increases the Parker spiral angle and, consequently, the azimuthal field component that projects as a southward component onto earth's dipole axis. The resulting prediction is that southward fields in the postshock plasma maximize at the spring (fall) equinox in CMEs emerging from toward (away) sectors. This pattern produces a strong semiannual variation in postshock IMF orientation and may account at least in part for the observed semiannual variation of the occurrence of great geomagnetic storms.

Crooker, N. U.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Exploring the Use of Radar for Physically-Based Nowcasting of Lightning Cessation

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to enable improved nowcasting of lightning cessation. This project centers on use of dual-polarimetric radar capabilities, and in particular, the new C-band dual polarimetric weather radar acquired by the 45WS. Special emphasis is placed on the development of a physically-based operational algorithm to predict lightning cessation. While previous studies have developed statistically based lightning cessation algorithms driven primarily by trending in the actual total lightning flash rate, we believe that dual polarimetric radar variables offer the possibility to improve existing algorithms through the inclusion of physically meaningful trends reflecting interactions between in-cloud electric fields and ice-microphysics. Specifically, decades of polarimetric radar research using propagation differential phase has demonstrated the presence of distinct phase and ice crystal alignment signatures in the presence of strong electric fields associated with lightning. One question yet to be addressed is: To what extent can propagation phase-based ice-crystal alignment signatures be used to nowcast the cessation of lightning activity in a given storm? Accordingly, data from the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) along with the NASA-MSFC North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are used in this study to investigate the radar signatures present before and after lightning cessation. Thus far our case study results suggest that the negative differential phase shift signature weakens and disappears after the analyzed storms ceased lightning production (i.e., after the last lightning flash occurred). This is a key observation because it suggests that while strong electric fields may still have been present, the lightning cessation signature was encompassed in the period of the polarimetric negative phase shift signature. To the extent this behavior is repeatable in other cases, even if only in a substantial fraction of those cases, the analysis suggests that differential propagation phase may prove to be a useful parameter for future lightning cessation algorithms. Indeed, a preliminary analysis of 15+ cases has shown additional indications of the weakening and disappearance of this ice alignment signature with lightning cessation. A summary of these case-study results is presented.

Schultz, Elise V.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗
NASA NTRS2006

Effect of EMIC Wave Normal Angle Distribution on Relativistic Electron Scattering

The flux level of outer-zone relativistic electrons (above 1 MeV) is extremely variable during geomagnetic storms, and controlled by a competition between acceleration and loss. Precipitation of these electrons due to resonant pitch-angle scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is considered one of the major loss mechanisms. This mechanism was suggested in early theoretical studies more than three decades ago. However, direct experimental evidence of the wave role in relativistic electrons precipitation is difficult to obtain because of lack of concurrent measurements of precipitating electrons at low altitudes and the waves in a magnetically conjugate equatorial region. Recently, the data from balloon-borne X-ray instruments provided indirect but strong evidence on an efficiency of the EMIC wave induced loss for the outer-zone relativistic electrons. These observations stimulated theoretical studies that, particularly, demonstrated that EMIC wave induced pitch-angle diffusion of MeV electrons can operate in the strong diffusion limit and this mechanism can compete with relativistic electron depletion caused by the Dst effect during the initial and main phases of storm. Although an effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering by EMIC waves depends strongly on the wave spectral properties, the most favorable assumptions regarding wave characteristics has been made in all previous theoretical studies. Particularly, only quasi field-aligned EMIC waves have been considered as a driver for relativistic electron loss. At the same time, there is growing experimental and theoretical evidence that these waves can be highly oblique; EMIC wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i.e. the region of small wave normal angles, but also the entire wave normal angle region, and even only the region near 90 degrees. The latter can dramatically change he effectiveness of relativistic electron scattering by EMIC waves. In the present study, we calculate the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients using the typical wave normal distributions obtained from our self-consistent ring current-EMIC wave model, and try to quantify the effect of EMIC wave normal angle characteristics on relativistic electron scattering.

Gamayunov, K. V.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change using Advance Machine Learning Techniques

A tropical cyclone (TC) is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a lowpressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain or squalls. TC occurs when the sea temperatures are high, and the air above the warm ocean is heated and rises quickly, causing an area of very low pressure, and then drawing more warm moist air, leading to strong winds. The air cools and condenses when rising, so that cumulonimbus clouds formed and produce heavy rainfall. These high winds, excessive rainfall and flooding threaten lives and property.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Cloud top height variability of strong convective cells

Cloud top height variability of cloud domes above the cirrostratus anvil was investigated for two severe local storm occurrences over Texas on May 12 and 13, 1972. Twenty-three domes were monitored and the average maximum height was 1.6 km above the anvil. It was estimated that a dome would take a maximum of about 6 min to grow from the anvil level to peak altitude based on measurements over the last 2 min of the growth period when the upward vertical velocity averaged 4 m/sec. The extreme vertical growth rate was 27 m/sec for a 30-sec period. This vertical growth rate compared with a range of 11.4-19.4 m sec determined from a method of estimating vertical motions based on laboratory measurements. Average dome collapse was at the same rate as the average ascent for the first 90 sec after the maximum altitude was reached.

Shenk, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Thermospheric dynamics during September 18-19, 1984. II - Validation of the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model

The winds, temperatures, and densities predicted by the thermospheric GCM are compared with measurements from the Equinox Transition Study of September 17-24, 1984. Agreement between predictions and observation is good in many respects. The quiet day observations contain a strong semidiurnal wind variation which is mainly due to upward-propagating tides. The storm day wind behavior is significantly different and includes a surge of equatorward winds due to a global propagating disturbance associated with the storm onset. A quantitative statistical comparison of the predicted and measured winds indicates that the equatorward winds in the model are weaker than the observed winds, particularly during storm times. A quiet day phase anomaly in the measured F region winds which is not reproduced by the model suggests the occurrence of an important unmodeled interaction between upward propagating semidiurnal tides and high-latitude effects.

Crowley, G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Sources and Losses of Ring Current Ions

During geomagnetic quiet times, in-situ measurements of ring current energetic ions (few to few tens of keVs) from THEMIS spacecraft often exhibit multiple ion populations at discrete energies that extend from the inner magnetosphere to the magnetopause at dayside or plasma sheet at nightside. During geomagnetic storm times, the levels of fluxes as well as the mean energies of these ions elevated dramatically and the more smooth distributions in energies and distances during quiet times are disrupted into clusters of ion populations with more confined spatial extends. This reveals local plasma heating processes that might have come into play. Several processes have been proposed. Magnetotail dipolarization, sudden enhancement of field-aligned current, local current disruptions, and plasma waves are possible mechanisms to heat the ions locally as well as strong convections of energetic ions directly from the magnetotail due to reconnections. We will examine two geomagnetic storms on October 11, 2008 and July 22, 2009 to reveal possible heating mechanisms. We will analyze in-situ plasma and magnetic field measurements from THEMIS, GOES, and DMSP for the events to study the ion pitch angle distributions and magnetic field perturbations in the auroral ionosphere and inner magnetosphere where the plasma heating processes occur.

Chen, Sheng-Hsien↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Most Extreme Thunderstorms on Earth

This study presents a comprehensive examination of the spectrum of storm types and their attributes worldwide (between 35N and 35S latitude), and as a function of season, location, and convective regime using the observed lightning, microwave scattering, and reflectivity signatures from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) low-Earth orbiting observatory. A global, multi-year data set (1998-2000) indicates that the deepest thunderstorms (having reflectivity in excess of 50 dBZ at 9 km altitude) occur in all the sub-tropical continents and occasionally over the open ocean, but are most common over the Americas. The most intense storms have the greatest lightning rates, lowest brightness temperatures and greatest depth of reflectivity- all indicative of strong updrafts and a well-developed volume of precipitation-sized ice particles. Mesoscale convective systems occurring within or in association with forcing from the sub-tropical continents are the most prolific lightning producers. The greatest flash rate to date of 993 flashes per minute was observed by NASA's Lightning Imaging Sensor on May 6, 1999 during an overpass of a pre-frontal squall line extending from Tennessee to Louisiana. The global distribution and frequency of thunderstorms, and the most recent summary of the extreme storms observed from space, in particular, will be discussed in greater detail.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Energetic Proton Access to the Inner Magnetosphere During the September 7–8, 2017 Event

Here, the access of solar energetic protons into the inner magnetosphere on September 7–8, 2017 is investigated by following reversed proton trajectories to compute the proton cutoff energy using the Dartmouth geomagnetic cutoff code (Kress et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009sw000488). The cutoff energies for protons coming from the west and east direction, the minimum and maximum cutoff energy respectively, are calculated every 5 min along the orbit of Van Allen Probes using TS07 and the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) MHD magnetic field model. The result shows that the cutoff energy increases significantly as the radial distance decreases, and that the cutoff energy decreases with the building up of the ring current during magnetic storms. Solar wind dynamic pressure also affects cutoff suppression (Kress et al., 2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018599). The LFM-RCM model shows stronger suppression of cutoff energy than TS07 during strong solar wind driving conditions. The simulation result is compared with proton flux measurements, showing consistent variation of the cutoff location during the September 7–8, 2017 geomagnetic storm.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Total Lightning Perspective of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell

In the early afternoon of 20 May 2013, a storm initiated to the west‐southwest of Newcastle, Oklahoma. This storm would rapidly intensify into the parent supercell of the tornado that struck the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This article describes what contributions total lightning observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array could provide to operational forecasters had these observations been available in real‐time. This effort includes a focus on the GOES‐R pseudo‐geostationary lightning mapper demonstration product as well as the NASA SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool. These observations and tools identified several contributions. Two distinct lightning jumps at 1908 and 1928 UTC provided a lead time of 19 minutes ahead of severe hail and 26 minutes ahead of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado's touchdown. These observations provide strong situational awareness to forecasters, as the lightning jumps are related to the rapid strengthening of the storm's updraft and mesocyclone and serve as a precursor to the stretching of the storm vortex ahead severe weather.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Biases in Simulated Cloud Radiative Effects in E3SMv3

This study systematically investigates biases in cloud radiative effects (CREs) within the recently released Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3). Compared to its previous version (E3SMv2), E3SMv3 shows excessively strong shortwave CRE over tropical and subtropical oceans, the Southern Ocean, and the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, which is primarily caused by an overestimation of optically intermediate low clouds. The model also displays excessive longwave CRE over the Maritime Continent and other tropical deep convection regions, resulting from an overestimation of optically thick high clouds. Implementing the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme for stratiform clouds played the most significant role in these cloud changes. In addition, using a double-moment scheme for convective clouds contributed to the increase in intermediate low clouds and optically thick clouds in tropical deep convection regions. Error metrics for total cloud amount (E TCA ), cloud properties (E ctp-τ ), and cloud properties weighted by their SW and LW radiative impacts (E SW and E LW ) indicate that E3SMv3's ability to reproduce observed cloud radiative effect of low, middle, and high clouds has not been improved compared to E3SMv2. Nevertheless, the performance of E3SMv3 remains well within the spread of CMIP6 models, with E SW and E LW values smaller than those in most CMIP6 models. This study underscores the importance of integrating diverse satellite observations for robust cloud evaluation and using cloud-radiation relationships as consistency check for model errors. It suggests that further model developments focus on improving cloud microphysics and their interactions with radiation.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS2000

Electrical Charging Hazards Originating from the Surface (ECHOS): Understanding the Martian Electro-Meteorological Environment

In 1999, the NASA/Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise selected a number of payloads to fly to the Martian surface in an 03 opportunity (prior to the MPL loss). Part of a proposed experiment, ECHOS, was selected to specifically understand the electrical charging hazards from tribocharged dust in the ambient atmosphere, in dust devils, and in larger storms. It is expected that Martian dust storms become tribocharged much like terrestrial dust devils which can possess almost a million elementary charges per cubic centimeter. The ECHOS package features a set of instruments for measuring electric effects: a radio to detect AC electric fields radiating from discharges in the storm,a DC electric field system for sensing electrostatic fields from concentrations of charged dust grains, and a lander electrometer chain for determining the induced potential on its body and MAV (Mars Ascent Vehicle) during the passages of a charged dust storm. Given that electricity is a systemic process originating from wind-blown dust, we also proposed to correlate the electrical measurements with fundamental fluid/meteorological observations, including wind velocity and vorticity, temperature, and pressure. Triboelectricity will also affect local chemistry, and chemical-sensing devices were also considered a feature of the package. The primary HEDS objectives of the ECHOS sensing suite is to discover and monitor the natural electrical hazards associated with dust devils and storms, and determine their enviro-effectiveness on human systems. However, ECHOS also has a strong footprint in the overarching science objectives of the Mars Surveyor Program.

Farrell, W. M.↗