Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Mitigation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Lab Home Testing of Residential Isolation Space Control to Minimize Infectious Disease Transmission in Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing evidence strongly suggests that viral infectious diseases can be transmitted via an airborne route across distances in indoor environments. Accordingly, the risk of airborne transmission within homes should be managed. The public health emergency associated with SARS-CoV-2 makes controlling airborne transmission of respired viruses in indoor environments critical, especially in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The effectiveness of engineering interventions requiring minor efforts that create a negative-pressure isolation zone (IZ) for a contagious person has yet to be tested for existing residential homes. To mitigate the risk of airborne virus transmission and maximize health protection for the population in existing single-family homes, the relative effectiveness of several control strategies are investigated in this report. While very high-efficiency MERV filtration, high ventilation rates, and other controls can help be effective, most occupants are not likely to have the time or means for advanced measures found in hospitals. This project focused on testing relatively simple efforts that utilize existing or easy to acquire materials and simple processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lab Home Testing of Residential Isolation Space Control to Minimize Infectious Disease Transmission in Existing Single-Family Homes

Existing evidence strongly suggests that viral infectious diseases can be transmitted via an airborne route across distances in indoor environments. Accordingly, the risk of airborne transmission within homes should be managed. The public health emergency associated with SARS-CoV-2 makes controlling airborne transmission of respired viruses in indoor environments critical, especially in poorly ventilated indoor environments. The effectiveness of engineering interventions requiring minor efforts that create a negative-pressure isolation zone (IZ) for a contagious person has yet to be tested for existing residential homes. To mitigate the risk of airborne virus transmission and maximize health protection for the population in existing single-family homes, the relative effectiveness of several control strategies are investigated in this report. While very high-efficiency MERV filtration, high ventilation rates, and other controls can help be effective, most occupants are not likely to have the time or means for advanced measures found in hospitals. This project focused on testing relatively simple efforts that utilize existing or easy to acquire materials and simple processes.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Shifts in hydropower operation to balance wind and solar will modify effects on aquatic biota

To avoid negative consequences to freshwater biota from climate change, society must complete the transition from fossil to renewable electricity sources. However, temporal patterns in hydropower generation (and flow releases that affect aquatic biota) may change with increased wind and solar penetration. We used power cost modeling to characterize current and future within-day and seasonal patterns in hydropower generation across the Eastern Interconnection in a wet and a dry year. Compared to the baseline, future hydropower generation across the grid decreased during the day and increased before dawn and after dusk. At a project level, such a pattern would suggest 'double peaking' operation (up- and down-ramping before dawn and after dusk, with lower releases midday). Variation in generation was higher in wet years than dry years, foreshadowing possible flow constraints on hydropower flexibility. At the grid scale, projected ramping rates were higher in all seasons. A review of the ecological literature suggests that these changes would shift the timing of invertebrate drift and elevate the risk of nest scouring during up-ramping and the risk of stranding or dewatering during down ramping. Thermal conditions may be moderated by increased ramping. Strategies for adapting to future shifts in the renewable portfolio range from re-regulation in reservoir cascades to providing flow refuge (structures and vegetation) below individual projects. Coordinated basin-scale operation can distribute peaking operation to maintain grid support while restricting local ramping at critical ecological times. In addition, research to design hybrid renewable systems that add battery storage is needed to understand how we can mitigate future risks to aquatic communities while promoting the use of renewable energy. This study, which is among the first to examine ecological side-effects of the shift to renewable energy in freshwater ecosystems, lays out a path toward understanding and navigating changes to flow regimes under the energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Current Status of the Synroc Waste Treatment Facility - 20263

Construction of the Synroc Waste Treatment Facility is well underway at ANSTO. This plant has been designed to treat intermediate level liquid waste arising from the production of Mo-99 within the newly constructed ANSTO Nuclear Medicine (ANM) precinct [1]. The facility utilises ANSTO Synroc technology that has been tailored to the chemical, physical, and radiological properties of the waste. The result is a highly durable wasteform with a significant reduction in the final volume of the treated waste. This paper presents the construction status of the Synroc Waste Treatment Facility and the status of the associated technology maturation plan. Construction of the building is scheduled for completion in late 2020 followed by process installation and commissioning. A key component of the technology maturation plan has been the construction of an Inactive Engineering Demonstrator [2]. This has aided in the mitigation of risks with respect to technology selection, process integration, and process nuclearisation. Furthermore, the demonstration facility has provided an environment for the design and development of the instrumentation and control philosophy resulting in a seamlessly integrated plant control system. Successful demonstration of the technology by the inactive engineering demonstrator has significantly reduced the associated risks. Details of the Synroc Waste Treatment Facility project progress will also be presented. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

Risk of theft and malicious use of radiation sources in transit

Remote radioactive source applications require frequent transportation of sources from storage locations to remote sites. This introduces risk of theft of a source during the transportation process, with the level of risk proportional to the radioactivity of the source. To that end, theft of smaller sources, such as microcurie-level moisture density gauges, are of minor concern, but larger sources, such as those used for radiography and well logging, present more risk. Radiography sources include 192 Ir, 75 Se, or 60 Co radionuclides with radioactivity amounts at or exceeding IAEA Category 2. Well-logging sources, primarily 241 Am/Be, are used for their neutron-emission properties. 137 Cs is also used in well-logging at lower activities than in radiography but at levels that still present some risk. The vulnerability for malicious use of such sources to cause contamination and associated economic effects is dependent on the elemental chemical and physical properties, especially melting point and bulk modulus. Theft of radiography sources is somewhat common, well-logging sources less so. Theft of sources commonly occurs in concert with theft of the vehicle, with the source subsequently abandoned. There have been some instances where a source appears to have been specifically targeted. There are a variety of security measures and protocols, available and under development, to mitigate the risk of theft and assist in source recovery.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Improving energy performance metrics to maximize the benefits of disruptive technologies

Advances in appliance and equipment systems' technologies also cause changes in their technical characteristics that can affect energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions. Energy performance evaluation methods that use testing and metrics can evolve to account for energy consumption contributed from new technological characteristics. However, there is no systematic effort to enable the advancement of test procedures and performance metrics to maximize the energy, climate, and financial benefits of disruptive technologies. Therefore, it is important for countries to regularly update their energy-efficiency policy programs, such as standards and labels, by improving test procedures and metrics to reflect the innovation in emerging technologies as well as to mitigate the risk of deploying obsolete technology. This paper shows how energy performance metrics have been improving in selected appliances and equipment and provides insights to design a systematic effort to improve metrics and test procedures at the speed of ongoing changes in technologies and markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Frequency Injection Based HVDC Attack-Defense Control Via Squeeze-Excitation Double CNN

Due to the independent controllability and fast power regulation capability, the High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) system could be a prospective technology to provide multiple ancillary services to the system besides conventional bulk power transmission. However, with the increase of False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs) on PMU data, the HVDC system could have the wrong response once the collected data that the HVDC system relied on is attacked, thus threatening the system operating security. How to ensure the security of the PMU-based HVDC ancillary service control become an urgent issue. To mitigate the risk, this paper proposed an HVDC attack-defense control based on the FDIAs detection method. Firstly, the Squeeze-Excitation based Double Convolutional Neural Networks (SE-DCNN) is proposed to realize fast identification of the attacking frequency type based on the time and frequency domain signals. Furthermore, the duration time of FDIAs is detected by the local outlier factor. Then, utilizing the results from SE-DCNN, HVDC ancillary service control framework is reorganized and an HVDC attack defense control is proposed for suppressing the potential influence of various types of FDIAs on the HVDC system ancillary service. Different experiments results demonstrate that the proposed method has the ability to significantly mitigate the frequency deviation and oscillation under the FDIA.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Environmental and ecological signals predict food shortages for subtropical populations of Australian flying foxes, reservoirs of Hendra virus

Food availability determines where and how animals use space across a landscape and, therefore, affects the risk of encounters leading to zoonotic spillover. This relationship is evident in Australian flying foxes (Pteropus spp.; fruit bats), where acute food shortages precede clusters of Hendra virus spillovers. Using machine learning, we predicted months of food shortages from climatological and ecological covariates (1996–2022) in subtropical Australia. Overall accuracy in predicting months of low food availability on a test set from 2018 up to 2022 reached 93.33 and 92.59% based on climatological and bat-level features, respectively. Seasonality and the Oceanic El Niño Index were the most important environmental features, while the number of bats in rescue centres and their body weights were the most important bat-level features. These models support predictive signals up to nine months in advance, facilitating action to mitigate spillover risk.

Pteropus↗

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the AIM Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity.Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analyzing Risks of Virtual Private Network Connections

The use of Splunk for analyzing VPN logs is an effective approach for identifying vulnerabilities in network endpoints. Splunk, a powerful platform for searching, monitoring, and analyzing machine-generated data, enables organizations to aggregate VPN logs in real-time, providing insights into network activity, user behavior, and potential security risks. By indexing VPN traffic and authentication logs, security teams can track abnormal patterns such as multiple failed login attempts, unusual IP addresses, or unexpected changes in bandwidth usage, all of which could indicate potential vulnerabilities or breaches. With Splunk’s advanced search and reporting capabilities, users can create custom dashboards and alerts to detect suspicious activities. Automated searches can flag endpoints exhibiting unusual behavior, while correlation analysis can identify links between compromised devices and broader network vulnerabilities. In particular, Splunk's machine learning capabilities can be leveraged to predict and prevent threats by identifying trends that might otherwise be missed in traditional log analysis. This proactive approach to monitoring VPN logs allows for the early detection of security weaknesses, enabling rapid response and minimizing potential damage to network integrity. By enhancing endpoint visibility, Splunk plays a crucial role in securing remote connections and safeguarding sensitive information. Additionally, Splunk’s automation and alerting features allow teams to create custom workflows that notify them of vulnerable or misconfigured endpoints identified through Shodan. This synergy between Splunk’s log analysis and Shodan’s device intelligence enhances an organization’s ability to proactively identify and mitigate security risks, improving the overall resilience of their VPN infrastructure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FY2020 Rotating Bed Reactor for Iodine Removal from WTP Melter Effluent to Support DFLAW Start-Up

In Performance Assessment (PA) of the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF), 129 I is a significant contributor to the risk. The 2017 IDF PA accounted for 0.22% of the total 129 I inventory in Hanford tank waste as residing in the solidified liquid waste from the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF). However, recent estimates suggest that higher percentages of the iodine processed at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) may be present in the liquid waste routed to the Liquid Effluent Retention Facility (LERF) for eventual treatment at the ETF. In addition, a recent integrated melter test performed at the Vitreous State Laboratory (VSL) at The Catholic University of America (CUA) showed the possibility that a significant fraction (>50%) of the total iodine in the melter feed could be present in the aqueous waste stream destined for the ETF. This stream represents a combination of the Effluent Management Facility (EMF) evaporator overhead condensate and the liquid waste from the WTP off-gas caustic scrubber. Higher levels of 129 I in this stream could affect the LERF and ETF Hazard Categorizations as well as the acceptability of the solidified ETF liquid secondary waste brine for disposal at the IDF. Accordingly, there is a need to investigate and develop potential methods and processes to mitigate this risk. Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC (WRPS) tasked Atkins and VSL to perform development and testing work to evaluate potential methods for removal of iodine species from the waste stream routed to the LERF. In particular, the testing investigated the use of an Atkins-SpinIonic™ Rotating Bed Reactor (RBR) system as a potential alternative to conventional column-based ion exchange or absorption processes. The present report provides results obtained from testing with an RBR system for the removal of iodine from simulants of the projected WTP waste stream that discharges to the LERF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Innovative approach to counterfeit and noncompliant refrigerant detection: A cost-effective, portable solution

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit and incompatible refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and non-compliance. This article details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately verify refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing feedback within a 2-minute duration. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (>95 % based on correct identification of compliant vs. non-compliant blends) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. The projected cost of the product stands at ∼ $150, based on the retail pricing of individual components. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (>95 % for composition identification, 100 % rejection of tested counterfeit/incorrect blends) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends with a response time <2 min. The device correctly identified authentic R-454A/B/C blends and reliably rejected R-407F and closely related counterfeit mixtures. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks, enhances safety in HVAC&R operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants.

Counterfeit refrigerants↗

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗