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At least 271 records · Page 15

A Framework for Non-Pipeline Alternatives Analysis and Review of Existing Approaches

States are increasingly interested in gas distribution system planning and the role that demand-side resources can play in maintaining an affordable, reliable, equitable, and low-carbon energy system. In particular, public utility commissions and utilities are exploring the role of non-pipeline alternatives (NPA) – an investment or activity that defers, reduces, or avoids the need to construct or replace a pipeline – in gas distribution system planning. NPAs are an emerging cost and risk mitigation tool that can provide gas utilities with an opportunity to reduce emissions, gas system costs, and customer risk by avoiding unnecessary infrastructure spending. Rather than address system issues with more costly and long-lived traditional capital projects, utilities can leverage demand-side NPA resources such as energy efficiency and electrification as well as supply-side NPA resources to meet system needs. However, there is limited guidance on performing an NPA and even fewer lessons learned. To fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy funded two reports on NPAs. The first report is a literature review that focuses on four states' NPA policies. The second report offers a framework for evaluating NPAs that states can adapt to meet their policy needs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Independent Review of the Proof-of-Concept Cyber100 Compass Cybersecurity Risk Tool

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), and Office of Electricity (OE) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a method and tool to enable electric utilities to understand and manage the risk of cybersecurity events that can lead to physical effects like blackouts. This tool, called Cyber100 Compass, uses cybersecurity data elicited from cybersecurity experts, then incorporates that data into a tool designed to be usable by cybersecurity non-experts who understand the system itself. The tool estimates dollar-valued risks for a current or postulated future electric power digital control configuration, in order to enable utility risk planners to prioritize among proposed cybersecurity risk mitigation options. With the development of the Cyber100 Compass tool for quantification of future cyber-physical security risks, NREL has taken an initial bold step in the direction of enabling and indeed encouraging electric utilities to address the potential for cybersecurity incidents to produce detrimental physical effects related to electric power delivery. As part of the Cyber100 Compass development process, DOE funded NREL to seek out an independent technical review of the risk methodology embodied in the tool. NREL requested this review from Sandia National Laboratories, and made available to Sandia a very late version of the project report, as well as NREL personnel to provide clarification and to respond to questions. This paper provides the result of the independent review activity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Hydrogen-Powered Locomotive Refueling

Hydrogen powered locomotives are being explored to reduce emissions in rail applications. The risks of operations like refueling should be understood to ensure safe environments for workers and members of the public. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using HyRAM+ to identify major drivers of risk and compare effects of system parameters on individual risk. The consequences of jet fires from full-bore leaks dominated the risk, compared to explosions or smaller leaks. Pipe size, leak detection capability, and leak frequencies of system components greatly affected risk while overpressure modeling parameters and ambient conditions had little effect. The effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) materials on individual risk were quantified by reducing the individual’s exposure time or absorbed thermal dose. PPE only showed a risk reduction in low-risk cases. This study highlighted target areas for risk mitigation, including leak detection equipment and component maintenance, and indicated that the minimal effects of other parameters on risk may not justify prescriptive requirements for refueling operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Mapping Critical Vulnerabilities in Natural Gas Pipeline Systems through Network Centrality and GIS Analytics

Natural gas plays a central role in the US energy landscape, providing 43% of electricity generation in 2023. Its exclusive recovery ability on pipelines for transmission underscores the importance of understanding the disruption recovery ability of this infrastructure. This study employs a network-based analytical framework integrating geographic information systems (GIS) with multiple centrality measures—betweenness, closeness, degree, and eigenvector—to pinpoint key segments and evaluate the structural robustness of the national pipeline network. Pipelines are grouped by System ID and Operator ID to capture variations across organizational and physical structures. The analysis reveals uneven patterns of network influence, where certain pipelines function as critical connectors or dominant hubs. Spatial mapping highlights geographic dependencies and potential chokepoints, offering a clear view of where targeted risk prevention measures would be most effective. The findings provide practical guidance for prioritizing maintenance, enhancing system robustness, and mitigating risks to ensure a stable and secure energy supply. Future research will expand the framework to incorporate dynamic operational data and real-time network behavior.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Mitochondrial Effects in the Liver of C57BL/6 Mice by Low Dose, High Energy, High Charge Irradiation

Galactic cosmic rays are primarily composed of protons (85%), helium (14%), and high charge/high energy ions (HZEs) such as 56 Fe, 28 Si, and 16 O. HZE exposure is a major risk factor for astronauts during deep-space travel due to the possibility of HZE-induced cancer. A systems biology integrated omics approach encompassing transcriptomics, proteomics, lipidomics, and functional biochemical assays was used to identify microenvironmental changes induced by HZE exposure. C57BL/6 mice were placed into six treatment groups and received the following irradiation treatments: 600 MeV/n 56 Fe (0.2 Gy), 1 GeV/n 16 O (0.2 Gy), 350 MeV/n 28 Si (0.2 Gy), 137 Cs (1.0 Gy) gamma rays, 137 Cs (3.0 Gy) gamma rays, and sham irradiation. Left liver lobes were collected at 30, 60, 120, 270, and 360 days post-irradiation. Analysis of transcriptomic and proteomic data utilizing ingenuity pathway analysis identified multiple pathways involved in mitochondrial function that were altered after HZE irradiation. Lipids also exhibited changes that were linked to mitochondrial function. Molecular assays for mitochondrial Complex I activity showed significant decreases in activity after HZE exposure. HZE-induced mitochondrial dysfunction suggests an increased risk for deep space travel. Microenvironmental and pathway analysis as performed in this research identified possible targets for countermeasures to mitigate risk.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A roadmap to understanding and anticipating microbial gene transfer in soil communities

Engineered microbes are being programmed using synthetic DNA for applications in soil to overcome global challenges related to climate change, energy, food security, and pollution. However, we cannot yet predict gene transfer processes in soil to assess the frequency of unintentional transfer of engineered DNA to environmental microbes when applying synthetic biology technologies at scale. This challenge exists because of the complex and heterogeneous characteristics of soils, which contribute to the fitness and transport of cells and the exchange of genetic material within communities. Here, we describe knowledge gaps about gene transfer across soil microbiomes. Here, we propose strategies to improve our understanding of gene transfer across soil communities, highlight the need to benchmark the performance of biocontainment measures in situ, and discuss responsibly engaging community stakeholders. We highlight opportunities to address knowledge gaps, such as creating a set of soil standards for studying gene transfer across diverse soil types and measuring gene transfer host range across microbiomes using emerging technologies. By comparing gene transfer rates, host range, and persistence of engineered microbes across different soils, we posit that community-scale, environment-specific models can be built that anticipate biotechnology risks. Such studies will enable the design of safer biotechnologies that allow us to realize the benefits of synthetic biology and mitigate risks associated with the release of such technologies.

bioccontainment↗

Large-scale Hydrogen Storage – Risk Assessment Seattle City Light and Port of Seattle [Abstract]

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support Seattle City Light (SCL), and the Port of Seattle (Port) in performing a risk assessment of large-scale hydrogen storage. Risk assessment is often used to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect workers and the public, the environment, infrastructure, and assets. A detailed risk assessment can also be used to direct funding and upgrades, to specific components and sub-systems in order to mitigate risks to the larger system. In this way risk assessments are often employed as a part of a larger risk management strategy, with the goal of minimizing the occurrence of hazards and to identify means to limit their consequences. Risk assessment is often used to engage and inform regulators, and to communicate how specific regulations are being met. However, it is important to note that the proposed work is not intended for SCL and the Port to use in order to gain regulatory acceptance for their proposed activities. The work performed as a part of this effort will be a preliminary risk assessment for early-stage component and system designs and should be considered research and development (R&D). As such, the proposed work will be performed to a quality level and design maturity consistent with R&D and is not considered appropriate for final safety analysis and regulatory compliance purposes. Previous and on-going work at SCL and the Port demonstrated the utility of deploying hydrogen systems at the Port. The deployment of hydrogen at the Port is a part of a larger vision of using hydrogen to address a range of issues for SCL and the Port. These include large-scale fueling of MD/HD vehicles, cargo-handling equipment (CHE), and harbor vessels to reduce emissions; support of adjacent LD vehicles; support of critical port operations during extreme events (i.e., resiliency); deferral of more capital- and time-intensive electrical distribution system upgrades while still supporting evolving port operations and decarbonization efforts; facilitating electrification by establishing energy storage as a grid resource, starting at strategic port locations; creation of a flexible market resource that can be used by SCL to generate revenue via arbitrage; support of planned future maritime operations that involve heavy use of hydrogen for ocean-going vessels; and future end-use applications involving natural gas pipeline hydrogen injection. Ultimately, the success of these activities is underpinned by the deployed storage capacity. Large-scale deployment of hydrogen systems will require hydrogen storage at a scale that has not been demonstrated. In addition, the ideal location for such multi-use systems is near the end user which will often necessitate deploying into urban and/or industrial areas. A detailed risk assessment using the Port as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful. Many technologies have been proposed for hydrogen storage; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for the Port will be analyzed, and a risk assessment for compressed hydrogen, liquified hydrogen, and Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC) storage will be performed. These risk assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform in terms of facility and public safety. The operating states of the proposed hydrogen systems at the Port will be analyzed and incorporated into the storage risk assessment. Scalability will also be analyzed to understand how future port uses would affect the overall risk assessment. Finally, using the risk assessment as a tool to inform engagement and to gain stakeholder acceptance will be explored.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA TEERM Principal Center Non-Chrome Projects

Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center Mission is to identify and validate environmental technologies through joint activities that enhance mission readiness and reduce risk while minimizing duplication and associated costs.

Rothgeb, Matthew↗

An Overview of NASA's Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Radiation Exposure

The association between high doses of radiation exposure and cardiovascular damage is well established. Patients that have undergone radiotherapy for primary cancers of the head and neck and mediastinal regions have shown increased risk of heart and vascular damage and long-term development of radiation-induced heart disease [1]. In addition, recent meta-analyses of epidemiological data from atomic bomb survivors and nuclear industry workers has also shown that acute and chronic radiation exposures is strongly correlated with an increased risk of circulatory disease at doses above 0.5 Sv [2]. However, these analyses are confounded for lower doses by lifestyle factors, such as drinking, smoking, and obesity. The types of radiation found in the space environment are significantly more damaging than those found on Earth and include galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), solar particle events (SPEs), and trapped protons and electrons. In addition to the low-LET data, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on atherosclerosis, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Understanding the qualitative differences in biological responses produced by GCR compared to Earth-based radiation is a major focus of space radiation research and is imperative for accurate risk assessment for long duration space missions. Other knowledge gaps for the risk of radiation-induced cardiovascular disease include the existence of a dose threshold, low dose rate effects, and potential synergies with other spaceflight stressors. The Space Radiation Program Element within NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is managing the research and risk mitigation strategies for these knowledge gaps. In this presentation, we will review the evidence and present an overview of the HRP Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure.

Patel, Zarana S.↗

Behavioral Makers to Assess During Selection for Active and Non-Active Astronauts

INTRODUCTION: NASA and our international partners seek to stay ahead of the evolving nature of the astronaut role. Spaceflight comes with various risks to team and individual. NASA has worked with its international partners in developing selection guidelines for minimal behavioral competencies needed upon selection. Training should be provided on the remaining behavioral competencies required for spaceflight. We will provide an overview of the process of identifying competencies important to assess as part of a multi-method selection program for active and non-active astronauts. TOPIC: NASA, ESA, CSA, and JAXA agency representatives used their vast combined knowledge and experience to develop competency requirement standards that future selection programs should assess when selecting astronauts. The astronaut role is expanding to include astronauts whose purposes are quite varied. NASA and its international partners identified the need to identify what competencies are required for anyone who will be experiencing the incredible demands, risks, and unique circumstances associated with spaceflight. Competencies include those required for individual and team functioning within the isolated, confined, and extreme environment. This need grew out of greater commercialization of spaceflight and other budding spaceflight prospects. 1. Each agency rated previously defined spaceflight required competencies (not important 0, somewhat important .5, or extremely important 1) to assess during selection. We did this for short duration (<14 days) and for long duration (<14 days) missions as some competencies appear to become of greater importance with longer duration missions. 2. We rated competencies for non-active crew and revisited previous ratings for active crew. 3. We compared agency ratings for non-active/active and short-duration/long-duration requirements and discussed in ratings until consensus was reached. We will use ratings to compile selection standards for active and non-active astronauts. APPLICATION: Our working group has vast operational experience and knowledge of the risk factors present during spaceflight that can disrupt individual and team functioning. Selection is one of the most important countermeasures for mitigating risk to individual and team health and performance. Our work should inform future programs for selecting crewmembers for short- and long-duration spaceflight among active and non-active crews.

Alexa Baxley↗

Lunar Regolith Trajectories as a Result of Plume Surface Interactions

Lunar regolith is ejected from the impingement points of descent engine plumes. Such particles pose potential risks to surface operations, sites of scientific and historical interest, and orbiting spacecraft. Consequently, determining the resultant trajectories of these particles is necessary in order to estimate and mitigate risk. Here we present the ranges, impact latitudes, times of flight, and maximum altitudes for particles accelerated by a plume surface interaction at the lunar south pole. Using launch angles determined from observations and simulations, and for velocities <1:6 km/s, particles pose little risk. However, above 1:6 km/s the risks increase, and the results become highly sensitive to the initial angle. In addition, gravitational and non-gravitational processes will introduce perturbations to high-velocity trajectories resulting in a reduction in precision. Therefore, while local topography or artificial berms may mitigate trajectories with low initial angles, it remains important to place tight constraints on the potential launch angles of particles accelerated by plume surface interactions through simulations and experimentation. If these angles are indeed constrained to within a few degrees of the horizon, the risks posed by accelerated regolith particles at any velocity will be minimal.

Daniel Batcheldor↗

Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems

Abstract. Wind energy is foundational for achieving 100 % renewable electricity production, and significant innovation is required as the grid expands and accommodates hybrid plant systems, energy-intensive products such as fuels, and a transitioning transportation sector. The sizable investments required for wind power plant development and integration make the financial and operational risks of change very high in all applications but especially offshore. Dependence on a high level of modeling and simulation accuracy to mitigate risk and ensure operational performance is essential. Therefore, the modeling chain from the large-scale inflow down to the material microstructure, and all the steps in between, needs to predict how the wind turbine system will respond and perform to allow innovative solutions to enter commercial application. Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operability of future turbine and plant systems are articulated, and recommendations for research action are laid out. This article focuses on the many unknowns that affect the ability to push the frontiers in the design of turbine and plant systems. Modern turbine rotors operate through the entire atmospheric boundary layer, outside the bounds of historic design assumptions, which requires reassessing design processes and approaches. Traditional aerodynamics and aeroelastic modeling approaches are pressing against the limits of applicability for the size and flexibility of future architectures and flow physics fundamentals. Offshore wind turbines have additional motion and hydrodynamic load drivers that are formidable modeling challenges. Uncertainty in turbine wakes complicates structural loading and energy production estimates, both around a single plant and for downstream plants, which requires innovation in plant operations and flow control to achieve full energy capture and load alleviation potential. Opportunities in co-design can bring controls upstream into design optimization if captured in design-level models of the physical phenomena. It is a research challenge to integrate improved materials into the manufacture of ever-larger components while maintaining quality and reducing cost. High-performance computing used in high-fidelity, physics-resolving simulations offer opportunities to improve design tools through artificial intelligence and machine learning, but even the high-fidelity tools are yet to be fully validated. Finally, key actions needed to continue the progress of wind energy technology toward even lower cost and greater functionality are recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

IMPACT - Information for the Development of Human Health and Performance Systems

IMPACT is a suite of computational and systems engineering tools. Currently being developed for NASA Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) and could be extended to other Human Research Program (HRP) elements. The purpose is to provide a data-driven means to inform human health and performance risk mitigation during exploration missions considering resource constraints in the medical system. IMPACT enables systematic trade studies to evaluate options. IMPACT uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a systematic methodology to evaluate risks. IMPACT is currently under development to inform decision-makers the risks involved with trade-options that have likelihoods and consequences backed by scientific research in a medical evidence library. IMPACT supports multi-segment analysis to determine probabilities and risks in different mission segments. There are currently 122 medical conditions and 900 resources in the IMPACT Medical Database. IMPACT modeling is using mission segments and multiple vehicles for the NASA Artemis campaign and could support future complex missions in deep space.

IMPACT PRA↗

Design and Testing of an Approach to Automated In-Flight Safety Risk Management for sUAS Operations

An onboard risk management automation design is presented based on run-time assurance principles, as well as the concept for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. The automation is designed to operate independently of the autopilot and perform real-time risk assessment spanning multiple classes of hazards, predict constraint violations, and track autopilot states. In the event of elevated risk conditions or predicted constraint violations, the automation will select from a set of available contingencies and trigger autopilot mode changes if necessary to mitigate risk exposure. The onboard automation also informs the remote operator/pilot of what the independent monitor is observing and any contingency decisions or actions that may arise during flight. Details of an implementation of this design and results of verification and validation activities, as required to meet stringent NASA software and system assurance standards, are also presented. This includes simulation and flight testing using small unmanned aircraft systems.

Ersin Ancel↗

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk (O.T. Gagnon III) 9-18-2024

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk: Why threats and security are just not that important! When dealing with cyber or physical risk within any critical infrastructure (CI) environment, don’t concern yourself with vulnerabilities and threats, at least not at first! Also, don’t be overly fixated on “securing the systems” within the organization. The endeavor of tackling operational risk focused on consequences in any critical infrastructure environment to include the complex Aviation ecosystem is challenging even for the most resourced entity but can be advanced though a simplified approach: identifying, binning, and prioritizing the infrastructure environment. While no two entities within a single element of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors are exactly alike when it comes to risk, there is a basic process to move toward a greater understanding of operational risk through becoming more informed about the infrastructure environment in which the entity exists. The process starts with bringing internal and external stakeholders and subject matter experts together to analyze key areas such as Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) components and points of convergence, analyzing internal and external cyber and physical dependencies, accounting for explosive growth in devices and wireless technology, and leveraging the contributions of people inside and outside the operational environment. Attaining a common understanding of the infrastructure environment as part of addressing consequences within operational risk is not easy to do or resource light, but the process outlined provides the framework to further any entity’s efforts in this space. When it comes to cyber risks, before an organization can consider vulnerabilities within and threats to its operations, it must first have a solid understanding of the consequences existing inside its infrastructure environment. Idaho National Lab’s Consequence-Driven, Cyber-Informed Engineering is offered as an example of this approach to effective and efficient cyber risk mitigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been applied in different industries for many years. Each industry and technology area presents varying challenges and priorities, and the risk models therefore need to be somewhat different. This paper compares aspects of risk modeling of offshore drilling, nuclear plant operation, and human spaceflight. Risk models in all three technology areas have certain high-level similarities: (1) they employ redundancy and diversity in their means to prevent or mitigate risk, including a mix of active and passive systems designed to respond to off-normal evolutions; (2) they are affected by human reliability; (3) their models require consideration of coupling between scenario structure and scenario phenomenology. But in examining the models in more detail, one sees important differences in methodology and emphasis. For purposes of comparison, this paper discusses aspects of a risk model of an offshore drilling operation in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, focusing on where such a development differs in important ways from models of commercial U.S. nuclear plants and models developed for human spaceflight.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

The New Face of Data Accessibility

Management of medical and research data at NASA's Johnson Space Center has been addressed with two separate, independent systems: the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (formerly, The Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health) (LSAH) and the Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA). Project management for these has been autonomous with little or no cross-over of goals, objectives or strategy. The result has been limited debate and discussion regarding how contents from one repository might impact or guide the direction of the other. It is decidedly more efficient to use existing data and information than to re-generate them. Ensuring that both clinical and research data / information are accessible for review is a central concept to the decision to unify these repositories. In the past, research data from flight and ground analogs has been held in the LSDA and medical data held in the Electronic Medical Record or in console flight surgeon logs and records. There was little cross-pollination between medical and research findings and, as a result, applicable research was not being fully incorporated into clinical, in-flight practice. Conversely, findings by the console surgeon were not being picked up by the research community. The desired life cycle for risk mitigation was not being fully realized. The goal of unifying these repositories and processes is to provide a closely knit approach to handling medical and research data, which will not only engender discussion and debate but will also ensure that both categories of data and information are used to enhance the use of medical and research data to reduce risk and promote the understanding of space physiology, countermeasures and other mitigation strategies

Fitts, Mary A.↗