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267 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Structural and Interactional Analysis of the Flavonoid Pathway Proteins: Chalcone Synthase, Chalcone Isomerase and Chalcone Isomerase-like Protein

Chalcone synthase (CHS) and chalcone isomerase (CHI) catalyze the first two committed steps of the flavonoid pathway that plays a pivotal role in the growth and reproduction of land plants, including UV protection, pigmentation, symbiotic nitrogen fixation, and pathogen resistance. Based on the obtained X-ray crystal structures of CHS, CHI, and chalcone isomerase-like protein (CHIL) from the same monocotyledon, Panicum virgatum, along with the results of the steady-state kinetics, spectroscopic/thermodynamic analyses, intermolecular interactions, and their effect on each catalytic step are proposed. In addition, PvCHI’s unique activity for both naringenin chalcone and isoliquiritigenin was analyzed, and the observed hierarchical activity for those type-I and -II substrates was explained with the intrinsic characteristics of the enzyme and two substrates. The structure of PvCHS complexed with naringenin supports uncompetitive inhibition. PvCHS displays intrinsic catalytic promiscuity, evident from the formation of p-coumaroyltriacetic acid lactone (CTAL) in addition to naringenin chalcone. In the presence of PvCHIL, conversion of p-coumaroyl-CoA to naringenin through PvCHS and PvCHI displayed ~400-fold increased Vmax with reduced formation of CTAL by 70%. Supporting this model, molecular docking, ITC (Isothermal Titration Calorimetry), and FRET (Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer) indicated that both PvCHI and PvCHIL interact with PvCHS in a non-competitive manner, indicating the plausible allosteric effect of naringenin on CHS. Significantly, the presence of naringenin increased the affinity between PvCHS and PvCHIL, whereas naringenin chalcone decreased the affinity, indicating a plausible feedback mechanism to minimize spontaneous incorrect stereoisomers. These are the first findings from a three-body system from the same species, indicating the importance of the macromolecular assembly of CHS-CHI-CHIL in determining the amount and type of flavonoids produced in plant cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Amylases in the Human Vagina

ABSTRACT Dominance of Lactobacillus species in vaginal communities is a hallmark of healthy conditions in the female genital tract. Key nutrients for lactobacilli include sugars produced when glycogen is degraded by α-amylase in the vagina. While α-amylase activity has been demonstrated in vaginal fluids, it is unclear whether α-amylases are produced solely by the host, bacteria in the vagina, or both. We screened cervicovaginal mucus from 23 reproductive-age women, characterized the species composition of vaginal communities, measured vaginal pH, and determined levels of amylase activity, glycogen, and lactic acid. Based on differences in these measured variables, one sample from each of four individual donors was selected for metagenomic and proteomic analyses. Of eight putative bacterial amylases identified in the assembled bacterial metagenomes, we detected four in vaginal fluids. These amylases were produced by various bacteria in different vaginal communities. Moreover, no two communities were the same in terms of which bacteria were producing amylases. Although we detected bacterial amylases in vaginal fluids, there was no clear association between the bacterial species that was dominant in a community and the level of amylase activity. This association was likely masked by the presence of human α-amylase, which was also detected in vaginal fluids. Finally, the levels of amylase activity and glycogen were only weakly associated. Our findings show, for the first time, that multiple amylases from both bacterial and human origins can be present simultaneously in the vagina. This work also suggests that the link between glycogen, amylase, and Lactobacillus in the vagina is complex. IMPORTANCE In this study, we show that multiple bacteria in the vaginal community produce amylases that hydrolyze glycogen into simpler sugars (i.e., maltose and maltotriose). These sugars serve as “common goods” that sustain bacterial populations in vaginal communities. Given the temporal changes that are observed in the human vaginal microbiome, we expect the kinds of bacterial amylases produced will also vary over time. These differences influence the pool of resources that are broadly shared and shape the species composition of the vaginal bacterial community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Brachypodium SPEECHLESS2 Promoter Drives Expression of a Synthetic EPF to Reduce Stomatal Density in Sugarcane Without Pleiotropic Effects

Stomata are microscopic pores that regulate the exchange of CO 2 and water vapour, making them a major target for engineering plants with improved intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE). Proof-of-concept studies have demonstrated the potential to increase iWUE by reducing stomatal density (SD) and stomatal conductance (g sw ) by ubiquitously expressing EPIDERMAL PATTERNING FACTOR (EPF) family genes. However, unwanted effects on leaf, stem and reproductive traits are often observed when EPFs are misexpressed in this fashion. We sought to test if these effects result from pleiotropy and to identify a targeted promoter that can circumvent the side effects while retaining the desired reduction in SD. A previously reported synthetic EPF (EPF syn ) was expressed in sugarcane ( Saccharum spp.) using two putatively tissue-specific promoters from Brachypodium distachyon (BdCESA7p and BdSPCH2p) and a ubiquitous control from Zea mays (ZmUBI4p). BdSPCH2p control reduced SD to statistically equivalent levels as ZmUBI4p on the abaxial (23%) and adaxial (23%) leaf surfaces. ZmUB4p and BdCESA7p induce expression in four tissue types often associated with pleiotropic effects in EPF-expressing low SD plants. Transgenic plants carrying either the BdCESA7p or ZmUBI4p EPF syn cassettes displayed leaf chlorosis, reduced leaf nitrogen and chlorophyll content, and altered stem architecture. However, transgenic events harboring the BdSPCH2p EPF syn cassette restricted EPF syn expression to the stomatal development zone and leaf nodal tissues and produced transgenic plants without the associated pleiotropic effects. These results represent an important step toward engineering low-SD crops since they show that targeted gene expression can engineer stomatal patterning without impairing agronomically important traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breeding latitude is associated with the timing of nesting and migration around the annual calendar among Purple Martin (Progne subis) populations

Timing is critical for species that migrate seasonally, as timing mismatches can lead to reduced reproductive success and population declines. We investigated the effect of breeding latitude on the migration timing of a long-distance migratory songbird (Purple Martin, Progne subis subis) by using light-level geolocators deployed across breeding sites between 26° and 53° latitude (n = 329). We used nesting data (1st egg dates; n=28,165) to explore latitudinal patterns in the timing of breeding. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found that breeding latitude was highly associated with timing around the calendar, explaining population-level timing across both spring and fall migration. Populations breeding at more northern latitudes migrated later in fall (mean days/degree latitude =2), in spring (mean days/degree latitude =3), and nested later (days/degree latitude = 3) than populations breeding at more southern latitudes. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) revealed significant non-linearity between breeding latitude and spring and fall migration timing, and the timing of nesting. In spring, the most northern breeders (> 40 degrees N) were more synchronous in their timing, departing their nonbreeding sites and arriving earlier at their breeding sites relative to their breeding latitude. These most northern breeders also had similar nest timing and fall migration departure timing. Breeding latitude was also associated with seasonal partitioning of migratory and sedentary periods. The most northern breeders spent 10% more time on fall migration, 2% more at wintering grounds, 1% more on spring migration, and 13% less time at their breeding sites. Our results support the notion that selection for timing at breeding latitudes can have year-round effects on the timing of seasonal events in long-distance migratory songbirds. Future studies should examine whether these timing patterns associated with latitude limit phenotypic responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Centrosome structure and function is altered by chloral hydrate and diazepam during the first reproductive cell cycles in sea urchin eggs

This paper explores the mode of action of the tranquillizers chloral hydrate and diazepam during fertilization and mitosis of the first reproductive cell cycles in sea urchin eggs. Most striking effects of these drugs are the alteration of centrosomal material and the abnormal microtubule configurations during exposure and after recovery from the drugs. This finding is utilized to study the mechanisms of centrosome compaction and decompaction and the dynamic configurational changes of centrosomal material and its interactions with microtubules. When 0.1% chloral hydrate or 350-750 microM diazepam is applied at specific phases during the first cell cycle of sea urchin eggs, expanded centrosomal material compacts at distinct regions and super-compacts into dense spheres while microtubules disassemble. When eggs are treated before pronuclear fusion, centrosomal material aggregates around each of the two pronuclei while microtubules disappear. Upon recovery, atypical asters oftentimes with multiple foci are formed from centrosomal material surrounding the pronuclei which indicates that the drugs have affected centrosomal material and prevent it from functioning normally. Electron microscopy and immunofluorescence studies with antibodies that routinely stain centrosomes in sea urchin eggs (4D2; and Ah-6) depict centrosomal material that is altered when compared to control cells. This centrosomal material is not able to reform normal microtubule patterns upon recovery but will form multiple asters around the two pronuclei. When cells are treated with 0.1% chloral hydrate or 350-750 microM diazepam during mitosis, the bipolar centrosomal material becomes compacted and aggregates into multiple dense spheres while spindle and polar microtubules disassemble. With increased incubation time, the smaller dense centrosome particles aggregate into bigger and fewer spheres. Upon recovery, unusual irregular microtubule configurations are formed from centrosomes that have lost their ability to reform normal mitotic figures. These results indicate that chloral hydrate and diazepam affect centrosome structure which results in the inability to reform normal microtubule formations and causes abnormal fertilization and mitosis.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phylogeny, morphology, virulence, ecology, and host range of Ordospora pajunii (Ordosporidae), a microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia spp.

ABSTRACT The impacts of microsporidia on host individuals are frequently subtle and can be context dependent. A key example of the latter comes from a recently discovered microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia , the net impact of which was found to shift from negative to positive based on environmental context. Given this, we hypothesized low baseline virulence of the microsporidian; here, we investigated the impact of infection on hosts in controlled conditions and the absence of other stressors. We also investigated its phylogenetic position, ecology, and host range. The genetic data indicate that the symbiont is Ordospora pajunii , a newly described microsporidian parasite of Daphnia . We show that O. pajunii infection damages the gut, causing infected epithelial cells to lose microvilli and then rupture. The prevalence of this microsporidian could be high (up to 100% in the lab and 77% of adults in the field). Its overall virulence was low in most cases, but some genotypes suffered reduced survival and/or reproduction. Susceptibility and virulence were strongly host-genotype dependent. We found that North American O. pajunii were able to infect multiple Daphnia species, including the European species Daphnia longispina , as well as Ceriodaphnia spp. Given the low, often undetectable virulence of this microsporidian and potentially far-reaching consequences of infections for the host when interacting with other pathogens or food, this Daphnia–O. pajunii symbiosis emerges as a valuable system for studying the mechanisms of context-dependent shifts between mutualism and parasitism, as well as for understanding how symbionts might alter host interactions with resources. IMPORTANCE The net outcome of symbiosis depends on the costs and benefits to each partner. Those can be context dependent, driving the potential for an interaction to change between parasitism and mutualism. Understanding the baseline fitness impact in an interaction can help us understand those shifts; for an organism that is generally parasitic, it should be easier for it to become a mutualist if its baseline virulence is relatively low. Recently, a microsporidian was found to become beneficial to its Daphnia hosts in certain ecological contexts, but little was known about the symbiont (including its species identity). Here, we identify it as the microsporidium Ordospora pajunii . Despite the parasitic nature of microsporidia, we found O. pajunii to be, at most, mildly virulent; this helps explain why it can shift toward mutualism in certain ecological contexts and helps establish O. pajunii is a valuable model for investigating shifts along the mutualism-parasitism continuum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of a σ–(c-di-GMP)–anti-σ switch

Filamentous actinobacteria of the genus Streptomyces have a complex lifecycle involving the differentiation of reproductive aerial hyphae into spores. We recently showed c-di-GMP controls this transition by arming a unique anti-σ, RsiG, to bind the sporulation-specific σ, WhiG. The Streptomyces venezuelae RsiG–(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG structure revealed that a monomeric RsiG binds c-di-GMP via two E(X) 3 S(X) 2 R(X) 3 Q(X) 3 D repeat motifs, one on each helix of an antiparallel coiled-coil. Here we show that RsiG homologs are found scattered throughout the Actinobacteria. Strikingly, RsiGs from unicellular bacteria descending from the most basal branch of the Actinobacteria are small proteins containing only one c-di-GMP binding motif, yet still bind their WhiG partners. Our structure of a Rubrobacter radiotolerans (RsiG) 2 –(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG complex revealed that these single-motif RsiGs are able to form an antiparallel coiled-coil through homodimerization, thereby allowing them to bind c-di-GMP similar to the monomeric twin-motif RsiGs. Further data show that in the unicellular actinobacterium R. radiotolerans , the (RsiG) 2 –(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG regulatory switch controls type IV pilus expression. Phylogenetic analysis indicates the single-motif RsiGs likely represent the ancestral state and an internal gene-duplication event gave rise to the twin-motif RsiGs inherited elsewhere in the Actinobacteria. Thus, these studies show how the anti-σ RsiG has evolved through an intragenic duplication event from a small protein carrying a single c-di-GMP binding motif, which functions as a homodimer, to a larger protein carrying two c-di-GMP binding motifs, which functions as a monomer. Consistent with this, our structures reveal potential selective advantages of the monomeric twin-motif anti-σ factors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The effects of environmental conditions on eggshell thickness of two North American secondary cavity-nesting birds

Egg hatchability in birds is a critical component of individual reproductive success and is associated with eggshell integrity. Contaminants, such as DDT, can influence eggshell thickness and are known to cause population declines. Moisture content and temperature can also impact eggshell thickness, but the influence of environmental conditions on the natural variation in eggshell thickness in wild populations is not well understood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between environmental conditions and eggshell thickness of Western Bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and Ash-throated Flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens) eggs from 1997 to 2013 on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. We tested whether nesting elevation, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions influenced eggshell thickness in these two secondary cavity-nesting species, while also looking at eggshell thickness over time. Over the 16 years, nonviable or abandoned eggs were collected, and the analyzed dataset included 330 bluebird eggs and 113 flycatcher eggs. There was a significant increase in eggshell thickness over time for both species. Flycatcher eggshells were correlated with higher temperatures, whereas bluebird eggshells were influenced by an interaction between temperature and drought severity. In drought conditions, bluebird eggshell thickness was positively correlated with temperature, whereas in wet conditions, eggshell thickness was negatively correlated with temperature. Thicker eggshells in drought conditions may be a way of reducing water loss from eggs, which occurs faster at higher temperatures. In the southwestern United States, frequent and severe drought, higher temperatures, and decreases in precipitation are all expected to continue. In conclusion, the structure of eggs will be important to consider regarding how species may or may not adapt to novel conditions or persist in new environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Porcine Arterivirus, Influenza B, and Their Coinfection on Antiviral Response in the Porcine Lung

Interferon (IFN) cytokines induce an autonomous antiviral state in cells of the infected site to restrict virus spreading and critically regulate overall antiviral response. The antiviral state leads to host protection through expression of hundreds of IFN-stimulated genes that restrict viral infection through multiple mechanisms, for example, directly in viral genome degradation and indirectly through cellular metabolic inhibition. Young pigs were split into four treatment groups: control, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV, also known as porcine arterivirus) infected, influenza B virus (IBV) infected, and IBV/PRRSV coinfection. Lung tissue was collected at 3, 5, and 7 days post infection (dpi) for control, PRRSV and IBV/PRRSV coinfection, and at 3 and 5 dpi for IBV. Transcriptomic analysis, using usegalaxy.org tools, was performed against the S.scrofa 11.1 reference genome. Differentially expressed gene (DEG) analysis was carried out using DeSeq2 based on the model treatment + dpi + treatment:dpi + E. Downstream analysis examined the interaction of DEG at each dpi for over-enriched gene ontology (G.O.) terms and pathways. Comparisons of the infected groups vs. the controls yielded a total of (n = 1412) DEGs for the PRRSV group and (n = 1578) for the IBV/PRRSV group across all timepoints. The IBV group had (n = 64) total DEGs across 3 and 5 dpi. Expression data were considered statistically significant based on false discovery rate (FDR) ⫹ 0.1. Venn diagram comparisons of the DEGs across dpi showed that groups shared only 16 DEGs at 3 dpi, no DEGs were shared at 5 dpi, and for 7 dpi, only the PRRSV and IBV/PRRSV groups were compared and shared a total of 43 DEGs. Across the comparisons, differential expression was observed in antiviral genes such as IRF1, MX1, and OAS2. The IBV and IBV/PRRSV groups showed higher expression of antiviral genes at earlier dpi than the PRRSV group. Additionally, downregulated genes from the comparisons clustered around Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways effecting lung development and cellular integrity. Early expression of host IFN and antiviral genes may lead to viral RNA degradation, and assembly and transcription inhibition in the IBV infections. In comparison, expression of antiviral genes in the PRRSV group decreased across time. The decrease may explain why PRRSV infections persist, while IBV clears. Moreover, all infected groups showed prolonged upregulation in neutrophil degranulation pathway activity, possibly exacerbating symptomatic lung lesion pathology seen in these respiratory infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AlgaeOrtho, a bioinformatics tool for processing ortholog inference results in algae

Introduction: Microalgae constitute a prominent feedstock for producing biofuels and biochemicals by virtue of their prolific reproduction, high bioproduct accumulation, and the ability to grow in brackish and saline water. However, naturally occurring wild type algal strains are rarely optimal for industrial use; therefore, bioengineering of algae is necessary to generate superior performing strains that can address production challenges in industrial settings, particularly the bioenergy and bioproduct sectors. One of the crucial steps in this process is deciding on a bioengineering target: namely, which gene/protein to differentially express. These targets are often orthologs which are defined as genes/proteins originating from a common ancestor in divergent species. Although bioinformatics tools for the identification of protein orthologs already exist, processing the output from such tools is nontrivial, especially for a researcher with little or no bioinformatics experience. Methods: The present study introduces AlgaeOrtho, a user-friendly tool that builds upon the SonicParanoid orthology inference tool (based on an algorithm that identifies potential protein orthologs based on amino acid sequences) and the PhycoCosm database from JGI (Joint Genome Institute) to help researchers identify orthologs of their proteins of interest in multiple diverse algal species. Results: The output of this application includes a table of the putative orthologs of their protein of interest, a heatmap showing sequence similarity (%), and an unrooted tree of the putative protein orthologs. Notably, the tool would be instrumental in identifying novel bioengineering targets in different algal strains, including targets in not-fully annotated algal species, since it does not depend on existing protein annotations. We tested AlgaeOrtho using three case studies, for which orthologs of proteins relevant to bioengineering targets, were identified from diverse algal species, demonstrating its ease of use and utility for bioengineering researchers. Discussion: This tool is unique in the protein ortholog identification space as it can visualize putative orthologs, as desired by the user, across several algal species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy to Detect and Measure NOW Pheromones (CPRB 2022 proposal)

Insect sex pheromones are chemical compounds that insects release to attract their partners over distances of hundreds of meters or even kilometers, in complete darkness and without any audible signals. Use of synthetic forms of key compounds have in some cases become an essential component of monitoring and/or managing key pests of agricultural crops, including navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella) (NOW) in California tree nuts. These pheromone-based strategies can include monitoring, mating disruption, mass trapping, attract-and-kill and push-pull. There are currently multiple commercially available mating disruption products available for NOW and recent studies have demonstrated that they can be effectively used to reduce crop damage by this pest. Just how mating disruption works is not fully established and likely varies across products and target species. For instance, the extent to which synthetic pheromones compete with natural pheromone is not well understood, or in the case of monitoring, how efficaciously the insect follows the diffusing plumes, especially across large blocks and at plot borders. Furthermore, there may be specific conditions under which poor or impeded diffusion of synthetic pheromone diminishes the disruption effect, which could result in some males effectively locating females for reproduction. At the same time, many commercially available synthetic lures are also available, and growers have been effectively using them to track population development – although the attractive range of these lures remains unclear. That is, while pheromone lures can attract many moths, the relationship between trap capture and local populations, much less crop damage, remains unclear. Regardless of the emission source (aerosol puffers, meso emitters, lures etc.), we currently lack the ability to fully understand how these synthetic pheromone compounds diffuse away from their point-source of emission – and subsequently how this might affect the efficacy of mating disruption and/or the accuracy of monitoring efforts. Raman spectroscopy (RS) may offer a means to detect synthetic pheromone because of its analytical properties and recent technological advancements. In combination with nanostructured probes, RS has a demonstrated capability to detect volatiles at extremely low concentrations. While other methods for detecting pheromones have proven to be successful, such analytical methods like mass spectrometry (MS) gas chromatography (GC) require sampling in the fields and are not real-time. Other methods such as EAG/ EAD are also invasive (use antennas) but are of course valuable. Opto-electronic, micro and nano sensors just recently enticed interest. We fall in this latter category, proposing the use of optical spectroscopy (Raman) in a fiber aided by nanostructures to provide a chemical fingerprint without transductions and in real-time (i.e. no sampling). To date, we have been able to generate Raman signatures for the main chemicals in synthetic pheromones (a first for science, to the best of our knowledge), observe their trends at different concentrations, and also provide a clear distinction of such signatures in mixed samples via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) – all of which strengthens our conclusions on the ability of RS to detect emissions in more realistic conditions. We also established processes to enhance the detection sensitivity via preconcentration with Solid Phase Micro Extraction (SPME) fibers and Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) to increase the overall optical signals. Furthermore, we explored limitations and requirements for detecting from dispensers, lures, or live moths, including Dept. of Energy and CA State regulatory approvals. Finally, we setup some of our first “orchard in a box” experiments to measure pheromone diffusion along with developing appropriate models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Apomixis in Farmers’ Fields: Overview, Case Studies from Forage Grasses and Considerations for Future Apomictic Crops

Apomixis occurs naturally in several commercially important species from diverse plant families. While in some of these species apomixis is yet to be exploited in breeding schemes aimed at fixing heterosis, genetic progress and cultivar development, in other species apomixis has been integrated at different stages of breeding. Some of the most relevant examples come from the subfamily Panicoideae, the second largest subfamily of the Poaceae, and are the main focus of this review. The subfamily encompasses many tropical and sub-tropical grasses and grains of worldwide economic importance. Apomictic tropical forages are prime examples of how apomixis can be used and exploited in the development of marketable cultivars, which are essential to the meat and milk production industries globally. The main commercial forages used as grass pastures covering millions of hectares in tropical and sub-tropical regions are polyploids exhibiting gametophytic apomixis that belong to the genus Urochloa spp. (brachiariagrasses) and to the species Megathyrsus maximus (guineagrass). Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) and Paspalum spp. are other important apomictic forages bred and used in these regions. Breeding involves large germplasm collections from the centers of origin of the species, and for most of them, sexually reproducing diploid plants have been found. Chromosomically duplicated plants that maintain sexual reproduction are used in crosses with apomictic genotypes for the development and selection of cultivars to be marketed or used as progenitors in subsequent breeding cycles. The peculiarities of each genus/species breeding programs, the cultivars obtained from these programs, and the impact of use of marker assisted selection in cultivar development are presented. In addition, the test or implementation of new technologies such as high throughput phenotyping, and the use of machine learning methods for trait prediction and genomic selection are positively impacting the selection and speed of development of new polyploid apomictic cultivars. Furthermore, genetic transformation techniques, including genome editing, provide an additional layer for design of tailor-made, customer-oriented cultivars.

Cenchrus↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global plant trait relationships extend to the climatic extremes of the tundra biome

The majority of variation in six traits critical to the growth, survival and reproduction of plant species is thought to be organised along just two dimensions, corresponding to strategies of plant size and resource acquisition. However, it is unknown whether global plant trait relationships extend to climatic extremes, and if these interspecific relationships are confounded by trait variation within species. We test whether trait relationships extend to the cold extremes of life on Earth using the largest database of tundra plant traits yet compiled. We show that tundra plants demonstrate remarkably similar resource economic traits, but not size traits, compared to global distributions, and exhibit the same two dimensions of trait variation. Three quarters of trait variation occurs among species, mirroring global estimates of interspecific trait variation. Plant trait relationships are thus generalizable to the edge of global trait-space, informing prediction of plant community change in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗