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NASA NTRS1991

A statistical model of carbon/carbon composite failure

A failure model which considers the stochastic nature of the damage accumulation process is essential to assess reliability and to accurately scale the results from standard test specimens to composite structures. A superior filamentary composite for high temperature applications is composed of carbon fibers in a carbon matrix. Carbon-carbon composites are the strongest known material at very high temperatures. Since there appears to be a significant randomness in C-C material strength which cannot be controlled or detected with current technology, a better model of the material failure based upon statistical principles should be used. Simple applications of the model based upon the limited data provide encouraging results that indicate that better design of test specimens would provide a substantially higher prediction for the design strength of C-C composites. An A-basis strength for the C-C tensile rings from a first stage D-5 billets was estimated. A statistical failure model was developed for these rings which indicates that this strength may be very conservative for larger C-C parts. The analysis may be improved by use of a heterogeneous/noncontinuum finite element approach on the minimechanical level.

Slattery, Kerry T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP) for verifiable enhanced solid rocket motor reliability

To increase the success rate of U.S. built Rocket Motors (SRM), the approach taken is: (1) set common reliability goals for nozzles, cases, bondline, propellant, and insulation; (2) build a common engineering data base to support standard industry-wide reliability assessment models; (3) structure or enhance existing industry/government/user term to develop the tools, methods needed, and the data to support them; and (4) areas where unreliabilities are found must be improved.

Butler, Barry L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Simulation Of Probabilistic Wind Loads On A Building

Method of simulating probabilistic windloads on building developed. Numerical results of simulation used to assess reliability of building and risk associated with tendencies of large gusts or high steady winds to cause building to sway, buckle, and/or overturn. Using method to analyze proposed design in iterative design cycle, building designed for specified reliability.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mathematical and statistical analysis

The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

Houston, A. Glen↗

NASA NTRS1997

Issues in NASA Program and Project Management: Focus on Project Planning and Scheduling

Topics addressed include: Planning and scheduling training for working project teams at NASA, overview of project planning and scheduling workshops, project planning at NASA, new approaches to systems engineering, software reliability assessment, and software reuse in wind tunnel control systems.

Hoffman, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Variability of Upper-Tropospheric Precipitable from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Datasets

Numerous datasets have been used to quantify water vapor and its variability in the upper-troposphere from satellite and model reanalysis data. These investigations have shown some usefulness in monitoring seasonal and inter-annual variations in moisture either globally, with polar orbiting satellite data or global model output analysis, or regionally, with the higher spatial and temporal resolution geostationary measurements. The datasets are not without limitations, however, due to coverage or limited temporal sampling, and may also contain bias in their representation of moisture processes. The research presented in this conference paper inter-compares the NVAP, NCEP/NCAR and DAO reanalysis models, and GOES satellite measurements of upper-tropospheric,precipitable water for the period from 1988-1994. This period captures several dramatic swings in climate events associated with ENSO events. The data are evaluated for temporal and spatial continuity, inter-compared to assess reliability and potential bias, and analyzed in light of expected trends due to changes in precipitation and synoptic-scale weather features. This work is the follow-on to previous research which evaluated total precipitable water over the same period. The relationship between total and upper-level precipitable water in the datasets will be discussed as well.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Probabilistic Approach of Incorporating Safety and Reliability in System Designs for a Manned Mission to Mars

Conceptual stages in mission design often lack the input of quantitative safety and reliability assessments, simply because failure rates or other data are not yet available for systems that have not yet been designed. Absence of such data should not, however, prevent the development of a quantitative risk models with placeholders for missing data. Functions (that is, actions the systems must perform) in mission design will eventually require system probabilities of success, and there could be much learned from surrogate data, adequately bounded in uncertainty, used in a large event tree model of a complex mission.

Railsback, Jan W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems

This document contains the proceedings of the Training Workshop on Nondeterministic Approaches and Their Potential for Future Aerospace Systems held at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, May 30-3 1, 2001. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University's Center for Advanced Engineering Environments and NASA. Workshop attendees were from NASA, other government agencies, industry, and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to give overviews of the diverse activities in nondeterministic approaches, uncertainty management methodologies, reliability assessment and risk management techniques, and to identify their potential for future aerospace systems.

Ahmed K Noor↗

NASA NTRS2002

Optimized Vertex Method and Hybrid Reliability

A method of calculating the fuzzy response of a system is presented. This method, called the Optimized Vertex Method (OVM), is based upon the vertex method but requires considerably fewer function evaluations. The method is demonstrated by calculating the response membership function of strain-energy release rate for a bonded joint with a crack. The possibility of failure of the bonded joint was determined over a range of loads. After completing the possibilistic analysis, the possibilistic (fuzzy) membership functions were transformed to probability density functions and the probability of failure of the bonded joint was calculated. This approach is called a possibility-based hybrid reliability assessment. The possibility and probability of failure are presented and compared to a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the bonded joint.

Smith, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Constitutive Equation for Stratospheric Balloon Materials

The selection of a suitable material for use as a reliable stratospheric balloon gas barrier and structural component is based on a variety of properties. Due to a more desirable combination of properties, the low density polyethylene that has been used for the last half century has been replaced during the last decade by linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE). This paper describes the effort to characterize the time dependent properties of a 38 micron coextrusion of LLDPE. The nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive equation presented may be used to accurately describe the creep and/or relaxation of this film when subjected to a biaxial state of stress, such as might be required for an extended balloon flight. Recent laboratory data have been used to mod@ an existing model of LLDPE to account for differences caused by the coextrusion process. The new model will facilitate structural design optimization and reliability assessment, and may be further utilized as a predictive tool to benefit in-flight operations. Current structural analysis tech&ques based on linear elastic properties have predicted stresses in excess of those which would actually exist.

Rand, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1997

T wave alternans during exercise and atrial pacing in humans

INTRODUCTION: Evidence is accumulating that microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a marker of increased risk for ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Initially, atrial pacing was used to elevate heart rate and elicit TWA. More recently, a noninvasive approach has been developed that elevates heart rate using exercise. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 30 consecutive patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias, the spectral method was used to detect TWA during both atrial pacing and submaximal exercise testing. The concordance rate for the presence or absence of TWA using the two measurement methods was 84%. There was a patient-specific heart rate threshold for the detection of TWA that averaged 100 +/- 14 beats/min during exercise compared with 97 +/- 9 beats/min during right atrial pacing (P = NS). Beyond this threshold, there was a significant and comparable increase in level of TWA with decreasing pacing cycle length and increasing exercise heart rates. CONCLUSIONS: The present study is the first to demonstrate that microvolt TWA can be assessed reliably and noninvasively during exercise stress. There is a patient-specific heart rate threshold beyond which TWA continues to increase with increasing heart rates. Heart rate thresholds for the onset of TWA measured during atrial pacing and exercise stress were comparable, indicating that heart rate alone appears to be the main factor of determining the onset of TWA during submaximal exercise stress.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Analysis of a SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composite Turbine Vane

To demonstrate the advanced composite materials technology under development within the Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Program, it was planned to fabricate, test, and analyze a turbine vane made entirely of silicon carbide-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite (SiC/SiC CMC) material. The objective was to utilize a five-harness satin weave melt-infiltrated (MI) SiC/SiC composite material developed under this program to design and fabricate a stator vane that can endure 1000 hours of engine service conditions. The vane was designed such that the expected maximum stresses were kept within the proportional limit strength of the material. Any violation of this design requirement was considered as the failure. This report presents results of a probabilistic analysis and reliability assessment of the vane. Probability of failure to meet the design requirements was computed. In the analysis, material properties, strength, and pressure loading were considered as random variables. The pressure loads were considered normally distributed with a nominal variation. A temperature profile on the vane was obtained by performing a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and was assumed to be deterministic. The results suggest that for the current vane design, the chance of not meeting design requirements is about 1.6 percent.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Malin, Jane T.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Hard and Soft Constraints in Reliability-Based Design Optimization

This paper proposes a framework for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements in the form of inequality constraints are present. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value and by sets of componentwise bounded uncertain variables. These models, which often arise in engineering problems, allow for a sharp mathematical manipulation. Constraints can be implemented in the hard sense, i.e., constraints must be satisfied for all parameter realizations in the uncertainty model, and in the soft sense, i.e., constraints can be violated by some realizations of the uncertain parameter. In regard to hard constraints, this methodology allows (i) to determine if a hard constraint can be satisfied for a given uncertainty model and constraint structure, (ii) to generate conclusive, formally verifiable reliability assessments that allow for unprejudiced comparisons of competing design alternatives and (iii) to identify the critical combination of uncertain parameters leading to constraint violations. In regard to soft constraints, the methodology allows the designer (i) to use probabilistic uncertainty models, (ii) to calculate upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation, and (iii) to efficiently estimate failure probabilities via a hybrid method. This method integrates the upper bounds, for which closed form expressions are derived, along with conditional sampling. In addition, an l(sub infinity) formulation for the efficient manipulation of hyper-rectangular sets is also proposed.

Crespo, L.uis G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) Connectors in Space Flight Applications

This report documents the current status of CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors in GSFC spaceflight applications. To the extent the information is known, this report summarizes to what component quality level each NASA contractor (referred to as OEM in this report) procured the parts, and what board level and system level testing was performed. The report also provides the current status of the reliability assessment for each GSFC project based on the results of testing and FMEA (Failure Mode Effects Analysis). This report addresses how the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors came into existence, and how these became the connector style chosen by many designers of space flight hardware. It identifies the design philosophy and the lack of robustness which has led to several known failure modes. These failure modes include fretting of connector pins during vibration, shock and thermal cycling, exposure of underplating, and increased resistance, including brief excursions to very high resistance. Each of these are signs of aging, which becomes an increasing concern for long duration orbiting space flight applications. This report addresses the mitigation strategy to replace CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors with space qualified Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connectors. The Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connectors are pin-to-pin compatible with the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors and meet all of the same technical requirements, except the ability to hot mate, and to mate directly with a CompactPCI of the opposite gender. A detailed comparison of the CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connector and the Hypertronics 2mm cPCI connector is provided to describe the ruggedness of Hypertronics connector for space flight applications. Finally, this report makes recommendations for flight hardware for the future missions where the hardware is yet to be built, as well as for the hardware which has already been built with CompactPCI(Registered TradeMark) connectors.

Williams, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated System Health Management: Foundational Concepts, Approach, and Implementation

Figueroa, Fernando↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated System Health Management: Foundational Concepts, Approach, and Implementation.

Implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) capability is fundamentally linked to the management of data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) with the purposeful objective of determining the health of a system. It is akin to having a team of experts who are all individually and collectively observing and analyzing a complex system, and communicating effectively with each other in order to arrive to an accurate and reliable assessment of its health. We present concepts, procedures, and a specific approach as a foundation for implementing a credible ISHM capability. The capability stresses integration of DIaK from all elements of a system. The intent is also to make possible implementation of on-board ISHM capability, in contrast to a remote capability. The information presented is the result of many years of research, development, and maturation of technologies, and of prototype implementations in operational systems (rocket engine test facilities). The paper will address the following topics: 1. ISHM Model of a system 2. Detection of anomaly indicators. 3. Determination and confirmation of anomalies. 4. Diagnostic of causes and determination of effects. 5. Consistency checking cycle. 6. Management of health information 7. User Interfaces 8. Example implementation ISHM has been defined from many perspectives. We define it as a capability that might be achieved by various approaches. We describe a specific approach that has been matured throughout many years of development, and pilot implementations. ISHM is a capability that is achieved by integrating data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) that might be distributed throughout the system elements (which inherently implies capability to manage DIaK associated with distributed sub-systems). DIaK must be available to any element of a system at the right time and in accordance with a meaningful context. ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL) is measured by how well a system performs the following functions: (1) detect anomalies, (2) diagnose causes, (3) predict future anomalies/failures, and (4) provide the user with an integrated awareness about the condition of every element in the system and guide user decisions.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

NASA NTRS2010

Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta Flux Measurements: Comparison of Three Acoustic Systems

This report examines the inherent capability of three large-area acoustic sensor systems and their applicability for micrometeoroids (MM) and lunar secondary ejecta (SE) detection and characterization for future lunar exploration activities. Discussion is limited to instruments that can be fabricated and deployed with low resource requirements. Previously deployed impact detection probes typically have instrumented capture areas less than 0.2 square meters. Since the particle flux decreases rapidly with increased particle size, such small-area sensors rarely encounter particles in the size range above 50 microns, and even their sampling the population above 10 microns is typically limited. Characterizing the sparse dust population in the size range above 50 microns requires a very large-area capture instrument. However it is also important that such an instrument simultaneously measures the population of the smaller particles, so as to provide a complete instantaneous snapshot of the population. For lunar or planetary surface studies, the system constraints are significant. The instrument must be as large as possible to sample the population of the largest MM. This is needed to reliably assess the particle impact risks and to develop cost-effective shielding designs for habitats, astronauts, and critical instrument. The instrument should also have very high sensitivity to measure the flux of small and slow SE particles. is the SE environment is currently poorly characterized, and possess a contamination risk to machinery and personnel involved in exploration. Deployment also requires that the instrument add very little additional mass to the spacecraft. Three acoustic systems are being explored for this application.

Corsaro, R. D.↗