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Reliability and Degradation Analysis of Energy Storage.
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Analysis of Human Reliability Program Data
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Reliability and availability requirements analysis for DEMO: fuel cycle system
The Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) will be a fusion reactor prototype designed to demonstrate the capability to produce electrical power in a commercially acceptable way. Two of the key elements of the engineering development of the DEMO reactor are the definitions of reliability and availability requirements (or targets). The availability target for a hypothesized Fuel Cycle has been analysed as a test case. The analysis has been done on the basis of the experience gained in operating existing tokamak fusion reactors and developing the ITER design. Plant Breakdown Structure (PBS) and Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) related to the DEMO Fuel Cycle and correlations between PBS and FBS have been identified. At first, a set of availability targets has been allocated to the various systems on the basis of their operating, protection and safety functions. 75% and 85% of availability has been allocated to the operating functions of fuelling system and tritium plant respectively. 99% of availability has been allocated to the overall systems in executing their safety functions. The chances of the systems to achieve the allocated targets have then been investigated through a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Reliability Block Diagram analysis. The following results have been obtained: 1) the target of 75% for the operations of the fuelling system looks reasonable, while the target of 85% for the operations of the whole tritium plant should be reduced to 80%, even though all the tritium plant systems can individually reach quite high availability targets, over 90% - 95%; 2) all the DEMO Fuel Cycle systems can reach the target of 99% in accomplishing their safety functions. (authors)
Probabilistic Failure Criterion of SiC/SiC Composites Under Multiaxial Loading
Owing to its excellent mechanical properties and stability under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions, SiC/SiC composites have emerged as a promising material for light water reactors (LWRs) in the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) systems. Structural integrity and retention of hermeticity are two crucial requirements for SiC/SiC claddings during normal operations, and both of them are closely related to the proportional limit stress (PLS) of the material. Understanding the behavior of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial stress states and developing a probabilistic approach for evaluating the structural vulnerability are of paramount importance for reliability-based analysis and design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. So far, there has been very limited effort towards experimental and analytical investigations of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC claddings. This critical knowledge gap motivates this research. A probabilistic failure criterion for SiC/SiC composites under multi-axial loading is developed, and this criterion is incorporated into reliability analysis of the structural integrity of SiC/SiC fuel cladding. The research consists of two parts: 1) experimental investigation of multiaxial failure behavior of SiC/SiC composites, and 2) theoretical modeling of time-dependent probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC cladding. In the experimental investigation, the PLS is determined through the examination of stress-strain response, the acoustic emission measurement, as well as the X-ray computed tomography. The theoretical framework is derived by combin- ing the finite weakest-link statistical model and the subcritical damage growth model. This theoretical model captures the time-dependent failure mechanism of the material, which has a major consequence for predicting the lifetime distribution of the cladding. Meanwhile, the model also predicts that the failure statistics of the cladding depends strongly on the cladding length. The results of the multiaxial experiments reveal the level of statistical variation of the PLS of SiC/SiC materials under different stress states. The theoretical model provides a robust analytical tool for extrapolation of small-scale laboratory test results to the behavior of full-scale claddings. These findings establish a scientific foundation for the development of reliability-based design of SiC/SiC fuel claddings, which will play an essential role in improving the structural safety and integrity of LWRs.
Setting Priorities for Photovoltaic Reliability Research Using Criticality Analysis
A forward-looking research opportunity number (RON) is defined for photovoltaic reliability researchers. The RON enables researchers to prioritize their efforts toward the highest impact. For a given degradation mode, the RON is based on three factors: the effect on levelized cost of electricity, the susceptibility of future module products, and the maturity of accelerated tests that can detect and quantify the mode. Reporting bias is avoided because the RON does not rely on polls. The RON is derived for three example cases: light and elevated temperature degradation, backsheet cracking, and antireflective coating abrasion. Finally, these examples demonstrate that targeted research has reduced the risk for these modes over the last several years.
Determinants of debit cards acceptance: An empirical investigation
These days, most of the Malaysians realize that the consumption of debit card will help them to reduce the household debt. Thus, it is important to analyse the acceptance of debit cards for further enhancement and expanding its market share in Malaysia. In addition, there is lacked of research being conducted on the determinants affecting the acceptance of debit cards among Malaysians. Thus, the study aimed to investigate the factors affecting the acceptance of debit cards. This study focuses on payment methods, consumer attitude, and safety of debit card in acceptance of debit cards. Questionnaires were distributed to the 300 respondents. The sampling procedure adopted was stratified random sampling. The data obtained were analysed using SPSS 20.0 which involves scale reliability, descriptive and regression analysis. The result indicates that payment methods, consumer attitude and safety are the determinants of debit cards acceptance. Safety is the best predictor as most of the customers are confidents to use debit cards because of the security being developed around these debit card transactions. The analyses presented in this study can be used by policymakers and managers as a guide to promote banking products and services. The findings achieved in this study will be of interest for practitioners and academics concerned with developments of the Malaysian banking industry.
Effects of an Advanced Reactor’s Design, Use of Automation, and Mission on Human Operators
The roles, functions, and tasks of the human operator in existing light water nuclear power plants (NPPs) are based on sound nuclear and human factors engineering (HFE) principles, are well defined by the plant’s conduct of operations, and have been validated by years of operating experience. However, advanced NPPs whose engineering designs differ from existing light-water reactors (LWRs) will impose changes on the roles, functions, and tasks of the human operators. The plans to increase the use of automation, reduce staffing levels, and add to the mission of these advanced NPPs will also affect the operator’s roles, functions, and tasks. We assert that these factors, which do not appear to have received a lot of attention by the design engineers of advanced NPPs relative to the attention given to conceptual design of these reactors, can have significant risk implications for the operators and overall plant safety if not mitigated appropriately. This paper presents a high-level analysis of a specific advanced NPP and how its engineered design, its plan to use greater levels of automation, and its expanded mission have risk significant implications on operator performance and overall plant safety.
Evaluating the Performance of the IEEE Standard 1366 Method for Identifying Major Event Days
IEEE Standard 1366 offers a method for segmenting reliability performance data to isolate the effects of major events from the underlying year-to-year trends in reliability. Recent analysis by the IEEE Distribution Reliability Working Group (DRWG) has found that reliability performance of some utilities differs from the expectations that helped guide the development of the Standard 1366 method. This paper proposes quantitative metrics to evaluate the performance of the Standard 1366 method in identifying major events and in reducing year-to-year variability in utility reliability. The metrics are applied to a large sample of utility-reported reliability data to assess performance of the method with alternative specifications that have been considered by the DRWG. We find that none of the alternatives perform uniformly 'better' than the current Standard 1366 method. That is, none of the modifications uniformly lowers the year-to-year variability in System Average Interruption Duration Index without major events. Instead, for any given alternative, while it may lower the value of this metric for some utilities, it also increases it for other utilities (sometimes dramatically). Thus, we illustrate some of the trade-offs that must be considered in using the Standard 1366 method and highlight the usefulness of the metrics we have proposed in conducting these evaluations.
Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles
Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.
Uncertainty Quantification for the Reliability of the Analytical Analysis for the Simplified Model of CO2 Geological Sequestration
A hydro-mechanical model with analytical solutions including pressure evolution and geomechanical deformation for geological CO2 injection and sequestration were introduced in our previous work. However, the reliability and accuracy of the hydro-mechanical model and the companion analytical solution are uncertain because of the assumptions and simplifications in the analytical model, though it was validated by a few example cases. This study introduce the method to efficiently measure the accuracy of the analytical model, and specify the acceptable input parameters range that can guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the analytical solution. A coupled hydro-geomechanical subsurface transport simulator STOMP was adopted as a reference to justify the reliability of the hydro-mechanical model and the analytical solution. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample the input parameter space.
Common Cause Failure Evaluation of High Safety-significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems
Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems but also pose different engineering and technical challenges, such as potential threats due to common cause failures (CCFs). This paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) developed by Idaho National Laboratory for dealing with potential software CCFs in DI&C systems of NPPs. The methodology development of PRADIC on the quantitative evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems in NPPs is illustrated in this paper. In PRADIC, qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analysis are successively implemented to obtain quantitative risk information, compare with respective risk evaluation acceptance criteria, and provide suggestions for risk reduction and design optimization. A comprehensive case study was also performed and documented in this paper. Results show that PRADIC can effectively identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their failure probabilities, and evaluate their impacts to system and plant safety.
Common Cause Failure Evaluation of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems using IRADIC Technology
Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems but also pose different engineering and technical challenges, such as potential threats due to common cause failures (CCFs). This paper proposes an integrated risk assessment technology for DI&C systems (IRADIC) developed by Idaho National Laboratory for dealing with potential software CCFs in DI&C systems of NPPs. The methodology development of the IRADIC technology on the quantitative evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems in NPPs is illustrated in this paper. In IRADIC, qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analysis are successively implemented to obtain quantitative risk information, compare with respective risk evaluation acceptance criteria, and provide suggestions for risk reduction and design optimization. A comprehensive case study was also performed and documented in this paper. Results show that the IRADIC technology can effectively identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their failure probabilities, and evaluate their impacts to system and plant safety.
Area of Interest 1. Interregional Electricity Reliability Issue and Assessment Analysis
In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) tasked Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in separate contracts, to provide coordinated technical support to the electricity industry for two national electricity reliability initiatives. The first initiative focused on improving the frequency response of each of the three North American interconnections. The second initiative focused on improving industry understanding of the causes and consequences of fault-induced delayed voltage recovery, which has been observed in all three interconnections. Both initiatives were conducted in close coordination with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the Western Electric Coordination Council (WECC) and involved the participation of leading utilities from across the United States. This is the final report on LBNL’s activities. It consists of summaries of each activity, including references to published documents that were prepared through the course of the project. (Activities under taken by PNNL are reported on in a separate report.)
Analysis of rapidly synthesized guest-filled porous complexes with synchrotron radiation: practical guidelines for the crystalline sponge method
This report describes complete practical guidelines and insights for the crystalline sponge method, which have been derived through the first use of synchrotron radiation on these systems, and includes a procedure for faster synthesis of the sponges. These guidelines will be applicable to crystal sponge data collected at synchrotrons or in-house facilities, and will allow researchers to obtain reliable high-quality data and construct chemically and physically sensible models for guest structural determination. A detailed set of synthetic and crystallographic guidelines for the crystalline sponge method based upon the analysis of expediently synthesized crystal sponges using third-generation synchrotron radiation are reported. The procedure for the synthesis of the zinc-based metal–organic framework used in initial crystal sponge reports has been modified to yield competent crystals in 3 days instead of 2 weeks. These crystal sponges were tested on some small molecules, with two being unexpectedly difficult cases for analysis with in-house diffractometers in regard to data quality and proper space-group determination. These issues were easily resolved by the use of synchrotron radiation using data-collection times of less than an hour. One of these guests induced a single-crystal-to-single-crystal transformation to create a larger unit cell with over 500 non-H atoms in the asymmetric unit. This led to a non-trivial refinement scenario that afforded the best Flack x absolute stereochemical determination parameter to date for these systems. The structures did not require the use of PLATON/SQUEEZE or other solvent-masking programs, and are the highest-quality crystalline sponge systems reported to date where the results are strongly supported by the data. A set of guidelines for the entire crystallographic process were developed through these studies. In particular, the refinement guidelines include strategies to refine the host framework, locate guests and determine occupancies, discussion of the proper use of geometric and anisotropic displacement parameter restraints and constraints, and whether to perform solvent squeezing/masking. The single-crystal-to-single-crystal transformation process for the crystal sponges is also discussed. The presented general guidelines will be invaluable for researchers interested in using the crystalline sponge method at in-house diffraction or synchrotron facilities, will facilitate the collection and analysis of reliable high-quality data, and will allow construction of chemically and physically sensible models for guest structural determination.
Reproduction drives changes in space use and habitat selection in a highly adaptable invasive mammal
Abstract For ungulates, it is not well understood how the interaction between habitat and reproduction affects movement behavior, space use, and habitat selection. We used known parturition (farrowing) data to validate First Passage Time (FPT) movement analysis to identify wild pig (Sus scrofa) parturition events from data collected with GPS collars. We examined home range and habitat selection during three physiologically distinct time periods in the reproductive cycle: late-gestation; farrowing; and neonate-care period. Sows exhibited a behavioral change 1-2 days prior to farrowing, suggesting FPT analysis can reliably identify parturition events for wide-ranging species that have a focused birthing area. Home range was smallest during the farrowing period, likely reflective of nest building, parturition, and protection of neonates. Home range size during the neonate-care period was intermediate between the late-gestation and farrowing periods, indicative of offspring care that may restrict maternal movement. Across all periods, sows avoided developed areas that have sparse canopy and ground cover and are associated with human activities. During late-gestation, sows avoided pine forests that have an open understory and less vegetative cover. During late-gestation and neonate-care, sows selected bottomland hardwood forests, habitat associated with ample food, cover, and water. During farrowing and neonate-care periods, sows selected upland hardwood forests, habitat with high quality food and cover for neonates. The physiological requirements of reproduction drive female habitat selection and spatial scale of movement patterns associated with parturition. Our study contributes to delineation of the appropriate scale at which to analyze movement data to provide insight about where individuals chose to place their home range, how much space to use, and how they use resources on the landscape to maximize reproductive success and fitness.
Accurate and reliable thermochemistry by data analysis of complex thermochemical networks using Active Thermochemical Tables: the case of glycine thermochemistry
Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT) were successfully used to resolve the existing inconsistencies related to the thermochemistry of glycine, based on statistically analyzing and solving a thermochemical network that includes >3350 chemical species interconnected by nearly 35 000 thermochemically-relevant determinations from experiment and high-level theory. Here, the current ATcT results for the 298.15 K enthalpies of formation are −394.70 ± 0.55 kJ mol −1 for gas phase glycine, −528.37 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for solid α-glycine, −528.05 ± 0.22 kJ mol −1 for β-glycine, −528.64 ± 0.23 kJ mol −1 for γ-glycine, −514.22 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for aqueous undissociated glycine, and −470.09 ± 0.20 kJ mol −1 for fully dissociated aqueous glycine at infinite dilution. In addition, a new set of thermophysical properties of gas phase glycine was obtained from a fully corrected nonrigid rotor anharmonic oscillator (NRRAO) partition function, which includes all conformers. Corresponding sets of thermophysical properties of α-, β-, and γ-glycine are also presented.
System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States
We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.