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At least 271 records · Page 15

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗

Numerical Simulation of a Natural Convection–Driven Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System Experiment

Ensuring the efficient removal of decay heat from the reactor vessel is essential for the safety of advanced reactor technologies. Several Generation-IV concepts incorporate variations in the reactor vessel cooling systems to achieve this objective. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors utilize a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), a passive ex-vessel system designed to operate without active components or external power during accident conditions. The RCCS removes decay heat primarily through radiative and convective heat transfer mechanisms. Here, this study presents a comprehensive validation of a computational fluid dynamics Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model for the University of Wisconsin-Madison air-cooled RCCS facility. Validation was conducted for both high- and low-power natural convection cases under a uniform heating profile. Near-wall resolution was found to be critical for accurately modeling natural convection in the RCCS; employing an all-𝑦 + wall treatment resulted in wall temperature discrepancies exceeding 50 °⁢𝐶 compared to a wall-resolved mesh. Thermal-hydraulic behaviors under natural and forced convection conditions were compared within the heated cavity and RCCS. A turbulence model sensitivity analysis indicated that low-Reynolds number k-ɛ, k-ω shear stress transport (SST), and Reynolds stress transport models produce similar wall temperature predictions. A buoyancy modeling sensitivity study revealed that the Boussinesq approximation significantly underpredicted thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RCCS. Based on these findings, modeling recommendations are provided. The validated data set along with identified sensitivities refine the modeling of natural convection in the RCCS. The information produced by this study supports RCCS design, optimization, and safety evaluations, enabling the calibration and verification of reduced-order thermal-hydraulic models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes advantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Validation and parameterization of a novel physics-constrained neural dynamics model applied to turbulent fluid flow

We report, in fluid physics, data-driven models to enhance or accelerate time to solution are becoming increasingly popular for many application domains, such as alternatives to turbulence closures, system surrogates, or for new physics discovery. In the context of reduced order models of high-dimensional time-dependent fluid systems, machine learning methods grant the benefit of automated learning from data, but the burden of a model lies on its reduced-order representation of both the fluid state and physical dynamics. In this work, we build a physics-constrained, data-driven reduced order model for Navier–Stokes equations to approximate spatiotemporal fluid dynamics in the canonical case of isotropic turbulence in a triply periodic box. The model design choices mimic numerical and physical constraints by, for example, implicitly enforcing the incompressibility constraint and utilizing continuous neural ordinary differential equations for tracking the evolution of the governing differential equation. We demonstrate this technique on a three-dimensional, moderate Reynolds number turbulent fluid flow. In assessing the statistical quality and characteristics of the machine-learned model through rigorous diagnostic tests, we find that our model is capable of reconstructing the dynamics of the flow over large integral timescales, favoring accuracy at the larger length scales. More significantly, comprehensive diagnostics suggest that physically interpretable model parameters, corresponding to the representations of the fluid state and dynamics, have attributable and quantifiable impact on the quality of the model predictions and computational complexity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Augmenting the Structural Dynamics Workflow to Reduce Development Times [Slides]

The structural dynamics workflow at LANL stands to be improved by implementing methods and techniques related to reduced-order finite-element modeling (FEM), pretest predictions, and FEM-test correlation and updating. The benefits of these industry-standard practices are demonstrated in this work. Software used for this project included Ansys 2023 R2 (Mechanical and Spaceclaim), Creo Parametric 8.0, MathCAD Prime 8.0, Matlab R2023b.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Augmenting the Structural Dynamics Workflow to Reduce Development Times

The success of future systems development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) depends, in part, on the ability to make informed decisions quickly. This is particularly true when asked to perform structural-mechanical analyses across many design alternatives. To help reduce development time, techniques in reduced-order finite-element modeling (FEM), pretest predictions, and FEM-test correlation and updating were demonstrated in the fiscal year (FY) 23 Technology and Demonstration Project (TED): Augmenting the Structural Dynamics Workflow to Reduce Development Times. This report expands on the TED project final report, LA-UR-34022.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Control Parameter Sensitivity Study for Inverter-Based-Resource Dominated Grids: A Small Signal Stability Approach and Framework

The growing adoption of renewable energy is driving the prevalence of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within power grids. Future power grids will integrate both grid-following IBRs (GFM-IBRs) and grid-forming IBRs (GFL-IBRs) alongside synchronous generators. Therefore, it is crucial to perform stability studies that account for all components and especially control interactions related to IBRs. Extensive research has performed to study the IBR-related stability, however, the sensitivity study of IBRs' control parameters on system stability has not been adequately studied yet, especially from a systematic way. Therefore, this paper conducts a small signal stability analysis for a generic grid with multiple types of resources and develops an analytical framework for assessing the sensitivity of control parameters affecting stability margins. To achieve that, the non-autonomous reduced-order non-linear dynamic model is developed for a generic power system with multiple synchronous generator-based resources (SGBRs), GFM-IBRs, and GFL-IBRs. Based on the analytic model, a systematic framework for parametric sensitivity on systems' asymptotic stability is developed. A parameter sensitivity analysis based on eigenvalue methods is proposed. The impact of the droop controllers of GFM-IBRs, PQ-dispatch and the PLL controller of GFL-IBR on the system asymptotic stability is discussed. This sensitivity study is aiming to provide deep insights on control parameters' impact on system stability, and gives direction for parameter tuning in case of instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cavity evolution and void swelling in dual ion irradiated tempered martensitic steels

Microstructural evolutions in two variants of the F82H 8 wt%Cr tempered martensitic steel under dual (He + plus Fe 3+ ) ion irradiations at 500 °C have been characterized by transmission electron microscopy. Emphasis is on understanding the combined effects of displacements per atom (dpa) and the helium/dpa ratio (He/dpa) on cavity evolution and void swelling (f v ). The dual ion database includes 231 alloy-dpa-He/dpa conditions for irradiations up to ~ 82 dpa and 3700 appm helium. Here, we hypothesize that the large “scatter” observed in the f v data is primarily due to local microstructural variations, especially those that shield regions at shallower depths from the effects of injected interstitial atoms, which would otherwise reduce f v . More generally, our hypothesis is that the highest f v data, at a specified dpa and He/dpa, provides the most appropriate estimate of swelling for fusion neutron irradiation conditions. The dose dependence of f v can be described by an incubation dpa i , marking the onset of significant void growth, and a post-incubation swelling rate, f v ’ = Δf v /Δdpa. Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa. The f v ’ data are quantitatively consistent with a simple model for defect partitioning between evolving bubble, void, and dislocation sinks strengths and biases. Most notably, the model correctly predicts both the incubation dpa i , and the subsequent f v ’, in spite of the fact that they reflect somewhat different physics. Our analysis also suggests that defect recombination is modest at 500 °C. Along with other considerations, this supports the hypothesis that, even at high dpa rates, dual ion irradiations can be used to reasonably emulate void nucleation and growth for a range of fusion-relevant neutron irradiation service conditions. A companion paper incorporates the results of this study in a reduced-order, data-driven void swelling model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

BUQEYE guide to projection-based emulators in nuclear physics

The BUQEYE collaboration (Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors in Your effective field theory) presents a pedagogical introduction to projection-based, reduced-order emulators for applications in low-energy nuclear physics. The term emulator refers here to a fast surrogate model capable of reliably approximating high-fidelity models. As the general tools employed by these emulators are not yet well-known in the nuclear physics community, we discuss variational and Galerkin projection methods, emphasize the benefits of offline-online decompositions, and explore how these concepts lead to emulators for bound and scattering systems that enable fast and accurate calculations using many different model parameter sets. We also point to future extensions and applications of these emulators for nuclear physics, guided by the mature field of model (order) reduction. All examples discussed here and more are available as interactive, open-source Python code so that practitioners can readily adapt projection-based emulators for their own work.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗

Deep learning of dynamically responsive chemical Hamiltonians with semiempirical quantum mechanics

Conventional machine-learning (ML) models in computational chemistry learn to directly predict molecular properties using quantum chemistry only for reference data. While these heuristic ML methods show quantum-level accuracy with speeds several orders of magnitude faster than traditional quantum chemistry methods, they suffer from poor extensibility and transferability; i.e., their accuracy degrades on large or new chemical systems. Incorporating quantum chemistry frameworks into the ML models directly solves this problem. Here we take the structure of semiempirical quantum mechanics (SEQM) methods to construct dynamically responsive Hamiltonians. SEQM methods use empirical parameters fitted to experimental properties to construct reduced-order Hamiltonians, facilitating much faster calculations than ab initio methods but with compromised accuracy. By replacing these static parameters with machine-learned dynamic values inferred from the local environment, we greatly improve the accuracy of the SEQM methods. Trained on molecular energies and atomic forces, these dynamically generated Hamiltonian parameters show a strong correlation with atomic hybridization and bonding. Trained with only about 60,000 small organic molecular conformers, the resulting model retains interpretability, extensibility, and transferability when testing on much larger chemical systems and predicting various molecular properties. Overall, this work demonstrates the virtues of incorporating physics-based descriptions with ML to develop models that are simultaneously accurate, transferable, and interpretable.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Temporally-consistent koopman autoencoders for forecasting dynamical systems

Absence of sufficiently high-quality data often poses a key challenge in data-driven modeling of high-dimensional spatio-temporal dynamical systems. Koopman Autoencoders (KAEs) harness the expressivity of deep neural networks (DNNs), the dimension reduction capabilities of autoencoders, and the spectral properties of the Koopman operator to learn a reduced-order feature space with simpler, linear dynamics. However, the effectiveness of KAEs is hindered by limited and noisy training datasets, leading to poor generalizability. To address this, we introduce the Temporally-Consistent Koopman Autoencoder (tcKAE), designed to generate accurate long-term predictions even with limited and noisy training data. This is achieved through a consistency regularization term that enforces prediction coherence across different time steps, thus enhancing the robustness and generalizability of tcKAE over existing models. We provide analytical justification for this approach based on Koopman spectral theory and empirically demonstrate tcKAE’s superior performance over state-of-the-art KAE models across a variety of test cases, including simple pendulum oscillations, kinetic plasma, and fluid flow data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Using Co-Optimized Machine Learned Manifolds for Modeling Chemically Reacting Flows

Chemically reacting flows play a key role in a wide range of engineered systems, from chemical and polymer processing to combustion-based energy conversion technologies. Simulations of these flows involve solving a coupled set of partial differential equations for mass, momentum, energy, and all relevant chemical species in the system. Chemical reaction pathways may be extremely complex and involve hundreds or more intermediate species, with reactions that occur over timescales varying by several orders of magnitude - presenting a significant numerical stiffness challenge. The combination of these factors makes simulation of chemically reacting flows vastly more expensive than nonreactive simulations, and often makes direct solution of the governing equations intractable. It is necessary to apply lower-fidelity models in place of the detailed governing equations in order to reduce computational cost to enable reacting flow simulation tools to be used in the engineering design process. Many of the models employed for this purpose are based on reducing the dimension of the thermochemical state, motivated by the observation that the observed thermochemical states in a system lie on a low-dimensional manifold in thermochemical state space. This behavior occurs due to the fast equilibration of certain reactive and transport processes, and physics-based manifold models rely on idealized assumptions about the balance of timescales and the way in which chemistry and transport are coupled. In this work, we apply a novel method for data-driven manifold-based modeling that can leverage data from high-fidelity reacting flow simulations to improve model accuracy in cases where the physics-based modeling assumptions break down. The approach is designed to be broadly applicable across chemically reacting flow systems but is applied here to turbulent combustion modeling.

machine learning↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗