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At least 271 records · Page 15

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Constraints on extensions to Λ CDM with weak lensing and galaxy clustering

We constrain six possible extensions to the Λ cold dark matter (CDM) model using measurements from the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations, alone and in combination with external cosmological probes. The DES data are the two-point correlation functions of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering, and their cross-correlation. We use simulated data vectors and blind analyses of real data to validate the robustness of our results to astrophysical and modeling systematic errors. In many cases, constraining power is limited by the absence of theoretical predictions beyond the linear regime that are reliable at our required precision. The Λ CDM extensions are dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state, nonzero spatial curvature, additional relativistic degrees of freedom, sterile neutrinos with eV-scale mass, modifications of gravitational physics, and a binned σ 8 ( z ) model which serves as a phenomenological probe of structure growth. For the time-varying dark energy equation of state evaluated at the pivot redshift we find ( w p , w a ) = ( - 0.9 9 - 0.17 + 0.28 , - 0.9 ± 1.2 ) at 68% confidence with z p = 0.24 from the DES measurements alone, and ( w p , w a ) = ( - 1.0 3 - 0.03 + 0.04 , - 0. 4 - 0.3 + 0.4 ) with z p = 0.21 for the combination of all data considered. Curvature constraints of Ω k = 0.0009 ± 0.0017 and effective relativistic species N eff = 3.1 0 - 0.16 + 0.15 are dominated by external data, though adding DES information to external low-redshift probes tightens the Ω k constraints that can be made without cosmic microwave background observables by 20%. For massive sterile neutrinos, DES combined with external data improves the upper bound on the mass m eff by a factor of 3 compared to previous analyses, giving 95% limits of ( Δ N eff , m eff ) ≤ ( 0.28 , 0.20 eV ) when using priors matching a comparable Planck analysis. For modified gravity, we constrain changes to the lensing and Poisson equations controlled by functions Σ ( k , z ) = Σ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 and μ ( k , z ) = μ 0 Ω Λ ( z ) / Ω Λ , 0 , respectively, to Σ 0 = 0. 6 - 0.5 + 0.4 from DES alone and ( Σ 0 , μ 0 ) = ( 0.04 ± 0.05 , 0.0 8 - 0.19 + 0.21 ) for the combination of all data, both at 68% confidence. Overall, we find no significant evidence for physics beyond Λ CDM .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of CP Violation in B Anti-B Mixing on the Recoil of Partially Reconstructed Anti-B0 to D* L- Anti-Nu/L Using Kaon Tags

After its formulation in 1960's the Standard Model of Fundamental Interactions has gone through an impressive series of successes, begun with the discovery of neutral weak currents [1] and the experimental observations of the massive carriers of weak interactions, the W ± and Z 0 bosons [2], [3]. High precision measurements performed at LEP and SLAC test the validity of the theory to an unprecedented level of accuracy and do not show any significant deviations with respect to the Standard Model predictions. One of the attractive features of the Standard Model is the description of the phenomena which violate the matter-antimatter symmetry (CP), and this violation uniquely depends (in the quark sector) on a weak phase in the matrix describing the couplings among different quark flavors. CP-violation was discovered in 1964 as a tiny effect in the mixing of the K 0 - $\bar{K}$ 0 system [12] but, after a few decades of study of the physics of K mesons, no strong confirmation of the Standard Model can be obtained on the mechanism which generates CP-violation. On the other hand the physics of B mesons is suitable for a pretty large number of measurements which can confirm or disprove this aspect of the theory. The main goal of the BABAR and Belle experiments physics program is to test the description of CP-violation and flavor physics mainly from the decays of B u and B d mesons. Soon after the beginning of data-taking in 1999, CP-violation was discovered in the interference between mixing and decay in the golden channel B 0 → J/Ψ}K 0 [17] [18], while in 2004 a large direct charge asymmetry was observed in the B 0 → K + π - channel [16]. There is a third kind of CP-violation which can be exhibited by the B d - $\bar{B}$ d system, the so called CP-violation in mixing. The Standard Model predicts this asymmetry to be small, possibly out of reach of current experiments, but several New Physics models contain new particles and couplings which can enhance it up to detectable levels. In this thesis we search for CP-violation in B d - $\bar{B}$ d mixing at the BABAR experiment. We reconstruct one of the two B mesons produced at the PEP-II electromagnetic collider using the partial reconstruction technique, while the flavor of the other B is inferred by the charge of a kaon identified among its decay products. Given the smallness of the physical asymmetry we want to measure, a crucial aspect of this analysis is the control of spurious charge asymmetries arising from the interaction of particles with the detector material. We accomplish this by using a control sample of charged kaons on the same data we use in our analysis. After a brief introduction of the theoretical framework and the phenomenology of the decays of B mesons at a B-factory (chapters 1 and 2), we will review in chapter 3 the current experimental results on this topic. We will then describe the characteristics of the collider and the experimental apparatus (chapter 4) used to perform our measurement. The available dataset and the event pre-selection techniques are treated in chapter 5, while the analysis method is discussed in detail in the following one. In chapters 7 and 8 the definitions of the probability density functions used to model each component of our sample are given and then they are tested in samples of simulated data. Toy and reweighted Monte Carlo data are used in chapter 9 to test the sensitivity of our fitting procedure to the physical parameters related to CP violation; chapter 10 discusses the possibility of modeling some of the components of our sample directly on the data. Finally the fit on the real data sample is described in chapter 11 and the treatment of systematic uncertainties is done in chapter 12, while the final result is given in chapter 13.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improving Brightness Temperature Measurements Near Coastal Areas

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission was designed to acquire and combine L-band radar and radiometer measurements for the estimation of soil moisture with 4% volumetric accuracy away from coastal zones. In regions near the coast or near inland bodies of water, the SMAP footprint contains land and water, resulting in errors in the soil moisture estimation. In this paper, we address the effort to extract the brightness temperature related to the land fraction or water fraction (depending on the center of the footprint location) from the affected SMAP measurements. We evaluate the performance of our algorithm over simulated data. We then show results over real data. The new SMAP upgraded product is expected to be delivered on April 2018.

Entekhabi, Dara↗

A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques: Preprint

This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques

This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis of Real-World Preignition Data Using Neural Networks

Increasing adoption of downsized, boosted, spark-ignition engines has improved vehicle fuel economy, and continued improvement is desirable to reduce carbon emissions in the near-term. However, this strategy is limited by damaging preignition events which can cause hardware failure. Research to date has shed light on various contributing factors related to fuel and lubricant properties as well as calibration strategies, but the causal factors behind an individual preignition cycle remain elusive. If actionable precursors could be identified, mitigation through active control strategies would be possible. This paper uses artificial neural networks to search for identifiable precursors in the cylinder pressure data from a large real-world data set containing many preignition cycles. It is found that while follow-up preignition cycles in clusters can be readily predicted, the initial preignition cycle is not predictable based on features of the cylinder pressure. Further, this indicates that the alternating pattern of preignition cycles within clusters is influenced by the thermodynamic state as reflected in the pressure, but that the trigger for the initial preignition cycle is not thermodynamic in nature, but more likely tied to a critical threshold in the chemistry of the fuel/lubricant mixture in the upper crevice or other factors related to the presence of an ignition source.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Spherical Harmonic-based Random Fields Based on Real Particle 3D Data: Improved Numerical Algorithm and Quantitative Comparison to Real Particles

Many parameters affect the cyclone efficiency, and these parameters can have different effects in different flow regimes. Therefore the maximum-efficiency cyclone length is a function of the specific geometry and operating conditions in use. In this study, we obtained a relationship describing the minimum particle diameter or maximum cyclone efficiency by using a theoretical approach based on cyclone geometry and fluid properties. We have compared the empirical predictions with corresponding literature data and observed good agreement. The results address the importance of fluid properties. Inlet and vortex finder cross-sections, cone-apex diameter, inlet Reynolds number and surface roughness are found to be the other important parameters affecting cyclone height. The surface friction coefficient, on the other hand, is difficult to employ in the calculations.We developed a theoretical approach to find the maximum-efficiency heights for cyclones with tangential inlet and we suggested a relation for this height as a function of cyclone geometry and operating parameters. In order to generalize use of the relation, two dimensionless parameters, namely for geometric and operational variables, we defined and results were presented in graphical form such that one can calculate and enter the values of these dimensionless parameters and then can find the maximum efficiency height of his own specific cyclone.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Locating Surface Explosions by Combining Seismic and Infrasound Data

An outline of a Bayesian source location framework for using seismic and acoustic observations is developed and tested on synthetic and real data. Seismic and acoustic phenomena are both commonly used in detection and location of a variety of natural or man–made events, such as volcanic eruptions, quarry blasts, and military exercises. Typically, seismic and acoustic observations have been utilized independently of each other. Here, we outline a Bayesian formulation for combining the two observations in a single estimate of the location and origin time. Using realistic estimates of uncertainty, we subsequently explore how combining the different observation types can benefit event location at local to near–regional distances. We apply the method to synthetic data and to real observations from a mining blast in Bingham Mine in Utah. Our findings suggest that, for relatively sparse or azimuthally limited observations, the relative strengths of the two different phenomenologies enable more precise joint–event localization than either seismic or infrasonic measurements alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A NEW METHOD FOR DERIVING THE STELLAR BIRTH FUNCTION OF RESOLVED STELLAR POPULATIONS

We present a new method for deriving the stellar birth function (SBF) of resolved stellar populations. The SBF (stars born per unit mass, time, and metallicity) is the combination of the initial mass function (IMF), the star formation history (SFH), and the metallicity distribution function (MDF). The framework of our analysis is that of Poisson Point Processes (PPPs), a class of statistical models suitable when dealing with points (stars) in a multidimensional space (the measurement space of multiple photometric bands). The theory of PPPs easily accommodates the modeling of measurement errors as well as that of incompleteness. Our method avoids binning stars in the color–magnitude diagram and uses the whole likelihood function for each data point; combining the individual likelihoods allows the computation of the posterior probability for the population's SBF. Within the proposed framework it is possible to include nuisance parameters, such as distance and extinction, by specifying their prior distributions and marginalizing over them. The aim of this paper is to assess the validity of this new approach under a range of assumptions, using only simulated data. Forthcoming work will show applications to real data. Although it has a broad scope of possible applications, we have developed this method to study multi-band Hubble Space Telescope observations of the Milky Way Bulge. Therefore we will focus on simulations with characteristics similar to those of the Galactic Bulge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Studies of the muon momentum calibration and performance of the ATLAS detector with $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

This paper presents the muon momentum calibration and performance studies for the ATLAS detector based on the $pp$ collisions data sample produced at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the LHC during Run 2 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 . An innovative approach is used to correct for potential charge-dependent momentum biases related to the knowledge of the detector geometry, using the $Z$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ resonance. The muon momentum scale and resolution are measured using samples of $J/ψ$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ and $Z$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ events. A calibration procedure is defined and applied to simulated data to match the performance measured in real data. The calibration is validated using an independent sample of $Υ$ → $μ^+$ $μ^–$ events. At the Z ($J/ψ$) peak, the momentum scale is measured with an uncertainty at the 0.05% (0.1%) level, and the resolution is measured with an uncertainty at the 1.5% (2%) level. The charge-dependent bias is removed with a dedicated in situ correction for momenta up to 450 GeV with a precision better than 0.03 TeV –1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SAR calibration and principal component analysis

Principal components analysis of ideal, complex quadpolarized synthetic aperture data tells us how the information is encoded in the eigenstructure of the data from homogeneous, distributed targets. Comparison with real data indicates distortion of the correlation matrices by system effects. The implications for measurement of the terms in the true correlation matrix are displayed. These are related to how accurately we can make inferences about the products of principle components analysis.

Quegan, S.↗

Tera-Ops Processing for ATR

A three-dimensional microelectronic device (3DANN-R) capable of performing general image convolution at the speed of 1012 operations/second (ops) in a volume of less than 1.5 cubic centimeter has been successfully built under the BMDO/JPL VIGILANTE program. 3DANN-R was developed in partnership with Irvine Sensors Corp., Costa Mesa, California. 3DANN-R is a sugar-cube-sized, low power image convolution engine that in its core computation circuitry is capable of performing 64 image convolutions with large (64x64) windows at video frame rates. This paper explores potential applications of 3DANN-R such as target recognition, SAR and hyperspectral data processing, and general machine vision using real data and discuss technical challenges for providing deployable systems for BMDO surveillance and interceptor programs.

Udomkesmalee, Suraphol↗

Comparison of full-aperture interferometry to sub-aperture stitched interferometry for a large diameter fast mirror

The Herschel Space Observatory (formerly known as FIRST) consists of a 3.5 m space telescope. Stitching sub aperture interferograms may offer considerable cost savings during testing of the flight telescope as compared to other techniques. A comparative demonstration is presented of interferogram stitching techniques that enable a composite map of a 3-D surface to be assembled from a sequence of sub-aperture measurements. This paper describes the fundamental procedures for stitching together component data sets and demonstrates such techniques with real data sets.

carbon fiber composite cryogenic optics high slope↗

WE-AB-207A-06: Progressive Dose Control for Cone Beam CT with Deformation Assisted Temporal Nonlocal Means Method

Purpose: To reduce cone beam CT (CBCT) imaging dose, we previously proposed a progressive dose control (PDC) scheme to employ temporal correlation between CBCT images at different fractions for image quality enhancement. A temporal non-local means (TNLM) method was developed to enhance quality of a new low-dose CBCT using existing high-quality CBCT. To enhance a voxel value, the TNLM method searches for similar voxels in a window. Due to patient deformation among the two CBCTs, a large searching window was required, reducing image quality and computational efficiency. This abstract proposes a deformation-assisted TNLM (DA-TNLM) method to solve this problem. Methods: For a low-dose CBCT to be enhanced using a high-quality CBCT, we first performed deformable image registration between the low-dose CBCT and the high-quality CBCT to approximately establish voxel correspondence between the two. A searching window for a voxel was then set based on the deformation vector field. Specifically, the search window for each voxel was shifted by the deformation vector. A TNLM step was then applied using only voxels within this determined window to correct image intensity at the low-dose CBCT. Results: We have tested the proposed scheme on simulated CIRS phantom data and real patient data. The CITS phantom was scanned on Varian onboard imaging CBCT system with coach shifting and dose reducing for each time. The real patient data was acquired in four fractions with dose reduced from standard CBCT dose to 12.5% of standard dose. It was found that the DA-TNLM method can reduce total dose by over 75% on average in the first four fractions. Conclusion: We have developed a PDC scheme which can enhance the quality of image scanned at low dose using a DA-TNLM method. Tests in phantom and patient studies demonstrated promising results.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sampling Technique for Robust Odorant Detection Based on MIT RealNose Data

This technique enhances the detection capability of the autonomous Real-Nose system from MIT to detect odorants and their concentrations in noisy and transient environments. The lowcost, portable system with low power consumption will operate at high speed and is suited for unmanned and remotely operated long-life applications. A deterministic mathematical model was developed to detect odorants and calculate their concentration in noisy environments. Real data from MIT's NanoNose was examined, from which a signal conditioning technique was proposed to enable robust odorant detection for the RealNose system. Its sensitivity can reach to sub-part-per-billion (sub-ppb). A Space Invariant Independent Component Analysis (SPICA) algorithm was developed to deal with non-linear mixing that is an over-complete case, and it is used as a preprocessing step to recover the original odorant sources for detection. This approach, combined with the Cascade Error Projection (CEP) Neural Network algorithm, was used to perform odorant identification. Signal conditioning is used to identify potential processing windows to enable robust detection for autonomous systems. So far, the software has been developed and evaluated with current data sets provided by the MIT team. However, continuous data streams are made available where even the occurrence of a new odorant is unannounced and needs to be noticed by the system autonomously before its unambiguous detection. The challenge for the software is to be able to separate the potential valid signal from the odorant and from the noisy transition region when the odorant is just introduced.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

Robust Event Classification Using Imperfect Real-world PMU Data

Here, this paper studies robust event classification using imperfect real-world phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. By analyzing the real-world PMU data, we find it is challenging to directly use this dataset for event classifiers due to the low data quality observed in PMU measurements and event logs. To address these challenges, we develop a novel machine learning framework for training robust event classifiers, which consists of three main steps: data preprocessing, fine-grained event data extraction, and feature engineering. Specifically, the data preprocessing step addresses the data quality issues of PMU measurements (e.g., bad data and missing data); in the fine-grained event data extraction step, a model-free event detection method is developed to accurately localize the events from the inaccurate event timestamps in the event logs; and the feature engineering step constructs the event features based on the patterns of different event types, in order to improve the performance and the interpretability of the event classifiers. Based on the proposed framework, we develop a workflow for event classification using the real-world PMU data streaming into the system in real time. Using the proposed framework, robust event classifiers can be efficiently trained based on many off-the-shelf lightweight machine learning models. Numerical experiments using the real-world dataset from the Western Interconnection of the U.S power transmission grid show that the event classifiers trained under the proposed framework can achieve high classification accuracy while being robust against low-quality data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗