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A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Ghanem, Roger↗

MELDI2 Do No Harm Test Series

Mars 2020 will fly the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation II (MEDLI2) sensor suite consisting of a total of seventeen instrumented thermal sensor plugs, eight pressure transducers, two heat flux sensors, and one radiometer embedded in the thermal protection system (TPS). Of the MEDLI2 instrumentation, eleven instrumented thermal plugs and seven pressure transducers will be installed on the heatshield of the Mars 2020 vehicle while the rest will be installed on the backshell. The goal of the MEDLI2 instrumentation is to directly inform the large performance uncertainties that contribute to the design and validation of a Mars entry system. A better understanding of the entry environment and TPS performance could lead to reduced design margins enabling a greater payload mass-fraction and smaller landing ellipses. To prove that the MEDLI2 system will not degrade the performance of the Mars 2020 TPS, an Aerothermal Do No Harm (DNH) test series was designed and conducted. Like Mars 2020's predecessor, Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the heatshield material will be Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA); the Mars 2020 entry conditions are enveloped by the MSL design environments, therefore the development and qualification testing performed during MEDLI is sufficient to show that the similar MEDLI2 heatshield instrumentation will not degrade PICA performance. However, given that MEDLI did not include any backshell instrumentation, the MEDLI2 team was required to design and execute a DNH test series utilizing the backshell TPS material (SLA-561V) with the intended flight sensor suite. To meet the requirements handed down from Mars 2020, the MEDLI2 DNH test series emphasized the interaction between the MEDLI2 sensors and sensing locations with the surrounding backshell TPS and substrucutre. These interactions were characterized by performing environmental testing of four 12" by 12" test panels, which mimicked the construction of the backshell TPS and the integration of the MEDLI2 sensors as seen in Figure 1. The testing included thermal vacuum/ cycling, random vibration, shock, and arc jet testing. The test panels were fabricated by Lockheed Martin, establishing techniques that will be utilized during the Mars 2020 vehicle installation. Each test panel included one thermal sensor plug (two embedded thermocouples), one heat flux sensor, and multiple pressure port holes for evaluation. This presentation will discuss the planning and execution of the MEDLI2 DNH test series. Selected highlights and results of each environmental test will be presented, and lessons learned will be addressed that will feed forward into the planning for the MEDLI2 flight system certification testing.

Heatshield↗

Cosmic ray modulation in a random anisotropic magnetic field

Inhomogeneities of the interplanetary magnetic field can be divided into small scale and large scale ones as may be required by the character of the problem of cosmic ray (CR) propagation. CR propagation in stochastic magnetic fields is of diffusion character. The main contribution into the scattering of CR particles is made by their interaction with inhomogeneities of the magnetic field H which have characteristic dimensions 1 of the order of Larmor radius R=cp/eH of particle (p is the absolute value of particle momentum, e is particle charge, c is velocity of light). Scattering of particles on such inhomogeneities leads to their diffusion mostly along a magnetic field with characteristic dimensions of variation in space exceeding the mean free path.

Dorman, L. I.↗

Percolation of interaction diffusing particles

The connectivity properties of systems of diffusing interacting particles with the blind and myopic diffusion rules are studied. It is found that the blind rule case is equivalent to the lattice gas with J = 0 in all dimensions. The connectivity properties of blind rule diffusion are described by random site percolation due to the fact that the density on neighboring sites is uncorrelated.

Selinger, Robin Blumberg↗

Interaction between photons and leaf canopies

The physics of neutral particle interaction for photons traveling in media consisting of finite-dimensional scattering centers that cross-shade mutually is investigated. A leaf canopy is a typical example of such media. The leaf canopy is idealized as a binary medium consisting of randomly distributed gaps (voids) and regions with phytoelements (turbid phytomedium). In this approach, the leaf canopy is represented by a combination of all possible open oriented spheres. The mathematical approach for characterizing the structure of the host medium is considered. The extinction coefficient at any phase-space location in a leaf canopy is the product of the extinction coefficient in the turbid phytomedium and the probability of absence gaps at that location. Using a similar approach, an expression for the differential scattering coefficient is derived.

Knyazikhin, Yuri V.↗

Radiative transfer in astronomical masers. III - Filamentary masers

The complete solution of a filamentary maser is presented. An integral equation and an iterative procedure are developed to calculate and solve the contribution of rays emanating from the filament sidewall. The solution provides complete expressions for the distributions of intensity and flux across the source as functions of position and direction with regard to the axis. The results are used to find the number distribution of brightness temperature in a large sample of randomly oriented filaments with an arbitrary distribution of lengths. The effects of external radiation on the maser structure and intensity are studied. It is proposed that the two giant bursts of H2O maser emission observed in W49 and Orion resulted from the interaction or two interacting filaments and a foreground slab amplifying a background filament.

Elitzur, Moshe↗

The spectrum of random magnetic fields in the mean field dynamo theory of the Galactic magnetic field

The fluctuation spectrum that must arise in a mean field dynamo generation of galactic fields if the initial field is weak is considered. A kinetic equation for its evolution is derived and solved. The spectrum evolves by transfer of energy from one magnetic mode to another by interaction with turbulent velocity modes. This kinetic equation is valid in the limit that the rate of evolution of the magnetic modes is slower than the reciprocal decorrelation time of the turbulent modes. This turns out to be the case by a factor greater than 3. Most of the fluctuation energy concentrates on small scales, shorter than the hydrodynamic turbulent scales. The fluctuation energy builds up to equipartition with the turbulent energy in times that are short compared to the e-folding time of the mean field. The turbulence becomes strongly modified before the dynamo amplification starts. Thus, the kinematic assumption of the mean dynamo theory is invalid. Thus, the galactic field must have a primordial origin, although it may subsequently be modified by dynamo action.

Kulsrud, Russell M.↗

Single laser beam of spatial coherence from an array of GaAs lasers - Free-running mode

Spatially coherent radiation from a monolithic array of three GaAs lasers in a free-running mode is reported. The lasers, with their mirror faces antireflection coated, are operated in an external optical cavity built of spherical lenses and plane mirrors. The spatially coherent-beam formation makes use of the Fourier-transformation property of the internal lenses. Transverse mode control is accomplished by a spatial filter. The optical cavity is similar to that used for the phase-controlled mode of spatially coherent-beam formation; only the spatial filters are different. In the far field (when restored by an external lens), the intensities of the lasers in the array are concentrated in a single laser beam of spatial coherence, without any grating lobes. The far-field distribution of the laser array in the free-running mode differs significantly from the interference pattern of the phase-controlled mode. The modulation characteristics of the optical waveforms of the two modes are also quite different because modulation is related to the interaction of the spatial filter with the longitudinal modes of the laser array within the optical cavity. The modulation of the optical waveform of the free-running mode is nonperiodic, confirming that the fluctuations of the optical fields of the lasers are random.

Philipp-Rutz, E. M.↗

The causes of recurrent geomagnetic storms

The causes of recurrent geomagnetic activity were studied by analyzing interplanetary magnetic field and plasma data from earth-orbiting spacecraft in the interval from November 1973 to February 1974. This interval included the start of two long sequences of geomagnetic activity and two corresponding corotating interplanetary streams. In general, the geomagnetic activity was related to an electric field which was due to two factors: (1) the ordered, mesoscale pattern of the stream itself, and (2) random, smaller-scale fluctuations in the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz. The geomagnetic activity in each recurrent sequence consisted of two successive stages. The first stage was usually the most intense, and it occurred during the passage of the interaction region at the front of a stream. These large amplitudes of Bz were primarily produced in the interplanetary medium by compression of ambient fluctuations as the stream steepened in transit to 1 A.U. The second stage of geomagnetic activity immediately following the first was associated with the highest speeds in the stream.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

A theory of Jovian decameter radiation

A theory of the Jovian decameter radiation is presented based on the assumed existence of beams of energetic electrons in the inner Jovian magnetosphere. Beam-like electron distributions are shown to be unstable to the growth of both upper hybrid and lower hybrid electrostatic waves. The upconversion of these waves to fast extraordinary mode electromagnetic radiation is calculated by using a fluid model. Two possibilities are considered. First, a random phase approximation is made which leads to a very conservative estimate of intensity that can be expected in decameter radiation. The alternative possibility is also considered, viz, that the upconversion process is coherent. A comparison of both processes suggests that an incoherent interaction may be adequate to account for the observed intensity of decametric radiation, except perhaps near the peak of the spectrum (8 MHz). The coherent process is intrinsically more efficient and can easily produce the observed intensity near 8 MHz if only 0.01% of the energy in the beam is converted to electrostatic energy.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

Morphological Differentiation of Colon Carcinoma Cell Lines in Rotating Wall Vessels

The objectives of this project were to determine whether (1) microgravity permits unique, three-dimensional cultures of neoplastic human colon tissues and (2) this culture interaction produces novel intestinal growth and differentiation factors. The initial phase of this project tested the efficacy of simulated microgravity for the cultivation and differentiation of human colon carcinoma in rotating wall vessels (RWV's) on microcarrier beads. The RWV's simulate microgravity by randomizing the gravity vector in an aqueous medium under a low shear stress environment in unit gravity. This simulation achieves approximately a one-fifth g environment that allows cells to 'float' and form three-dimensional relationships with less shear stress than in other stirred aqueous medium bioreactors. In the second phase of this project we assessed the ability of human colon carcinoma lines to adhere to various substrates because adhesion is the first event that must occur to create three-dimensional masses. Finally, we tested growth factor production in the last phase of this project.

Jessup, J. M.↗

Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspect of out understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to to simulate these process in numerical models of chemistry and transport. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photlysis cross section to simulate molecular interactions. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluation are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reaction and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗

Modeling of the Ablation of Fibrous Materials in the Knudsen Regime

During atmospheric entry of planetary probes, the thermal protection system (TPS) of the probe is exposed to high temperatures under low pressures. In these conditions, carbonous TPS materials undergo gasification in the Knudsen regime leading to mass loss and wall recession called ablation. This work aims to improve the understanding of materiaVenvironment interactions through a study of the coupling between carbon dioxide transport in the Knudsen regime, heterogeneous oxidation of carbon, and sutface recession. A 3D Monte-Carlo simulation tool is used for this study. The fibrous architecture of the materiils, consisting of high porosity random array of carbon fibers, is numerically reproduced on a 3D Cartesian grid. Mass transport in the Knudsen regime from the boundary layer to the surface, and inside this porous material is simulated by random walk. A reaction probability is used to simulate the heterogeneous oxidation reaction. The surface recession is followed by front tracking using a simplified marching cube approach. The output data of the simulations are ablation velocity and dynamic evolution of the material porosity. A parametric study is carried out to analyze the material behavior as a function of Knudsen number for the porous media (length of the mean free path compared to the mean pore diameter) and the intrinsic reactivity of the carbon fibers. The results enable extrapolation of laboratory experimental data to actual entry conditions.

Lachaud, J.↗

Dynamics of Single Chains of Suspended Ferrofluid Particles

We present an experimental study of the dynamics of isolated chains made of super-paramagnetic particles under the influence of a magnetic field. The motivation of this work is to understand if the chain fluctuations exist and, if it does, how does the fluctuation affect chain aggregation. We find that single chains strongly fluctuate and that the characteristic frequency of their fluctuations is inversely proportional to the magnetic field strength. The higher the field the lower the characteristic frequency of the chain fluctuations. In the high magnetic field limit, chains behave like rigid rods without any internal motions. In this work, we used ferrofluid particles suspended in water. These particles do not have any intrinsic magnetization. Once a magnetic field is applied, a dipole moment is induced in each particle, proportional to the magnetic field. A dipolar magnetic interaction then occurs between particles. If dipole-dipole magnetic energy is higher than the thermal energy, the result is a structure change inside the dipolar fluid. The ratio of these two energies is expressed by a coupling constant lambda as: lambda = (pi(a(exp 3))(chi(exp 2))(mu(sub 0))(H(sub 0))(exp 2))/18kT Where a is the particle radius, mu(sub 0) is the vacuum magnetic permeability, H(sub 0) the applied magnetic field, k the Boltzmann constant and T the absolute temperature. If lambda > 1, magnetic particles form chains along the field direction. The lateral coalescence of several chains may form bigger aggregates especially if the particle volume fraction is high. While many studies and applications deal with the rheological properties and the structural changes of these dipolar fluids, this work focuses on the understanding of the chain dynamics. In order to probe the chain dynamics, we used dynamic light scattering (DLS) in self-beating mode as our experimental technique. The experimental geometry is such that the scattering plane is perpendicular to the magnetic field. Therefore, only motions in this plane are probed. A very dilute sample of a ferrofluid emulsion with a particle volume fraction of 10(exp -5) is used in this experiment. We chose such a low volume fraction to avoid multiple light scattering as well as lateral chain-chain aggregation. DLS measures the dynamic structure factor S(q,t) of the sample (q is the scattering wave vector, t is the time). In the absence of the magnetic field, identical particles of ferrofluid droplets are randomly distributed and S(q,t) reduces to exp(-q(exp 2)2D(sub 0)t). D(sub 0)=(kT/(6(pi)(eta)(a)) is the diffusion coefficient of Brownian particles (where Xi = (6(pi)(eta)(a)) is the Stokes frictional coefficient of a spherical particle in a fluid of viscosity eta). If interactions or polydispersity can not be ignored, an effective diffusion coefficient is introduced. Formally, D(sub eff) is defined as: D(sub eff) = - q(exp -2) partial derivative of (ln(S(q,t)) with respect to time, as t goes to 0. D(sub eff) reduces to D(sub 0) if no interactions and only a few particles size are present. Therefore, we can use DLS to measure particle size. The particle radius was found to be a=0.23 mu m with 7% of polydispersity. In this case, if we vary the scattering angle theta (and so q) we do not have any change in the measured diffusion coefficient: it is q-independent. When a magnetic field is applied, particles aggregate into chains if lambda > 1. We first studied the kinetics of the chain formation when lambda = 406. At a fixed scattering angle, we measured diffusion coefficient D(sub eff) as a function of time. Experimentally, we find that D(sub eff) decreases monotonously with time. Physically, this means that chains are becoming longer and longer. Since we are only sensitive to motions in the scattering plane and since chains have their main axis perpendicular to this plane, the measured diffusion coefficient is the trans-verse diffusion coefficient. We can relate D(sub eff) to the mean number of particles per chain N(t) at a given time and to the diffusion coefficient of an isolated particle D(sub 0) as D(sub eff)=f(N(t))D(sub 0). Since f(N) is known from other recent work, N can be expressed as a function of the time. We found a square root dependency: N(t) proportional to the square root of t. As expected for very low volume fraction, this behavior is characteristic of a diffusion-limited aggregation as suggested by several authors and by our previous work. In this study, we focus on the dependence of the effective diffusion coefficient on the scattering angle and the magnetic field strength. After the magnetic field is applied (lambda = 406) for a long time, typically 6 hours, kinetics of chain formation becomes very slow. Chain size does not vary much over the next hour period. Thus, we can perform different interesting experiments. First, at a fixed magnetic field, we measure the effective diffusion coefficient as a function of the scattering angle (from 5 to 130 deg). Our results show that the measured diffusion coefficient increases linearly with the scattering angle: D(sub eff) proportional to q. If we do the same experiment for different lambda values, D(sub eff) depends on lambda as D(sub eff) proportional to lambda(exp -1/2). We also find for different lambda values that the same asymptotic D(sub eff) value is obtained when q approaches zero. The angle dependency of D(sub eff) suggests that an additional motion exists besides chain drifting. Chain size is constant during experiment, which was verified by measuring the same diffusion coefficient at the beginning and at the end of the angle switching. If chains are rigid, D(sub eff) is independent of q. Therefore, we found that D(sub eff) not only measures the motion of the entire chain but also its internal fluctuations. These internal motions are the fluctuations of the particles in the chain. To understand the q dependency of D(sub eff), let us look at the probing length used. In our study, the characteristic length scale probed is l=2pi/q which is in the range of 0.9<l/a<20. When l is much larger than the particle radius (l/a going to infinity) we are mainly sensitive to the center of mass diffusion of the chain. D(sub eff) is then the diffusion of the entire chain and depends only on N but not on q and lambda. The value D(sub eff) allows us to obtain the number of particles per chain N. In the opposite limit (i.e. l/a < 1), we are sensitive to motions on the size of individual particles. The main contributions to the measured diffusion coefficient come from internal motions of the chains (i.e. particles' fluctuations inside the chain). We investigated also the effect of the chain size on D(sub eff). For the same value of the magnetic interaction lambda and different chain sizes, we found that the slope of D(sub eff) versus q decreases when N increases as a power law D(sub eff) proportional to N(exp -0.7). This is an important behavior because this means that the longer the chain the slower its internal fluctuations besides the whole chain motion.

Cutillas, S.↗

Radiation-induced rotation of small celestial bodies

The rotation was studied of particles in a simulated space environment via a technique known as Laser Particle Levitation. The combination of both a high vacuum and optical laser levitation to negate the effects of Earth's gravity, simulate the space environment. The rotation mechanism under study is known as the 'Windmill Effect,' which is a spin mechanism that suggests that the interaction of the photon field from a star with the surface irregularities of cosmic dust will cause them to spin due to the imbalance in the directionality of the scattered photons which necessitates a non-zero angular momentum. This conclusion is based on the random nature of the orientation of the sites of surface irregularities. The general object is to study the behavior of particles in orbits around the Earth, both natural and man made, as well as interplanetary and circumstellar particles. To meet this objective, an apparatus was constructed which was designed to allow optical levitation in a vacuum.

Misconi, N. Y.↗

Effect of Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Loads on Fatigue Reliability in Polymer Matrix Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multi-factor interaction relationship developed at NASA Lewis Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability- based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)(sub s) graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Shah, A. R.↗

Correspondence between discrete and continuous models of excitable media: trigger waves

We present a theoretical framework for relating continuous partial differential equation (PDE) models of excitable media to discrete cellular automata (CA) models on a randomized lattice. These relations establish a quantitative link between the CA model and the specific physical system under study. We derive expressions for the CA model's plane wave speed, critical curvature, and effective diffusion constant in terms of the model's internal parameters (the interaction radius, excitation threshold, and time step). We then equate these expressions to the corresponding quantities obtained from solution of the PDEs (for a fixed excitability). This yields a set of coupled equations with a unique solution for the required CA parameter values. Here we restrict our analysis to "trigger" wave solutions obtained in the limiting case of a two-dimensional excitable medium with no recovery processes. We tested the correspondence between our CA model and two PDE models (the FitzHugh-Nagumo medium and a medium with a "sawtooth" nonlinear reaction source) and found good agreement with the numerical solutions of the PDEs. Our results suggest that the behavior of trigger waves is actually controlled by a small number of parameters.

Non-NASA Center↗

Probabilistic Simulation for Combined Cycle Fatigue in Composites

A methodology to compute probabilistic fatigue life of polymer matrix laminated composites has been developed and demonstrated. Matrix degradation effects caused by long term environmental exposure and mechanical/thermal cyclic loads are accounted for in the simulation process. A unified time-temperature-stress dependent multifactor interaction relationship developed at NASA Glenn Research Center has been used to model the degradation/aging of material properties due to cyclic loads. The fast probability integration method is used to compute probabilistic distribution of response. Sensitivities of fatigue life reliability to uncertainties in the primitive random variables (e.g., constituent properties, fiber volume ratio, void volume ratio, ply thickness, etc.) computed and their significance in the reliability-based design for maximum life is discussed. The effect of variation in the thermal cyclic loads on the fatigue reliability for a (0/+/- 45/90)s graphite/epoxy laminate with a ply thickness of 0.127 mm, with respect to impending failure modes has been studied. The results show that, at low mechanical cyclic loads and low thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life for 0.999 reliability is most sensitive to matrix compressive strength, matrix modulus, thermal expansion coefficient, and ply thickness. Whereas at high mechanical cyclic loads and high thermal cyclic amplitudes, fatigue life at 0.999 reliability is more sensitive to the shear strength of matrix, longitudinal fiber modulus, matrix modulus, and ply thickness.

Chamis, Christos C.↗