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Results for “Predictive Data analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Continuous integration data-driven platform of industrial-scale subsurface storage for real-time analytics

This project helped address the growing need for efficient and scalable models to support geological carbon and energy storage, which are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. Traditionally accurate high-fidelity numerical models have been used to simulate relevant storage processes under a handful of processes, however such models are computationally demanding, making uncertainty quantification impractical. Consequently, we first developed a machine learning framework, based on Graph Neural Operators (GNOs), to improving the accuracy of model predictions for a fixed computational budget. We then developed an Ensemble of Improved Neural Operators (ENO), which uses bagging and Monte Carlo dropout techniques, to further improve prediction accuracy. Lastly, we developed the way to explain progressive transfer learning methods to reduce the amount of training data and computational cost of training (i.e., reduce trainable parameters) when using our models for multiple storage sites. Our numerical investigation, which used real-world case studies, demonstrated that our framework can significantly improve the safety and efficiency of geological storage operations, with potential applications in other domains such as geothermal reservoirs and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into co-pyrolysis of polyethylene terephthalate and polyamide 6 mixture through experiments, kinetic modeling and machine learning

The non-isothermal pyrolysis of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyamide 6 (PA6), and their mixtures was studied in a thermogravimetric analyzer at different heating rates. Temperature of maximum decomposition (T max ) decreased by 25–45 °C and 35–55 °C for the PET:PA6 mixtures (3:1, 1:1, 1:3) compared to PET and PA6, respectively. The kinetic analysis was initially carried out using isoconversional method. However, the dependency of activation energy on conversion was observed for the co-pyrolysis of PET and PA6 that suggested the occurrence of multi-step reactions in the mixtures. Distributed activation energy model (DAEM) was used in this study to describe the multistep reactions occurring during pyrolysis of PET:PA6 mixtures. Here, in this work, a four-parallel reaction DAEM was developed to describe the pyrolysis kinetics of PET:PA6 mixtures. The apparent mean activation energies (E o ) for PET, PA6, and mixtures varied in the range of 244–255, 140–215, and 138–255 kJ mol –1 , respectively. The mass loss profiles of PET and PA6 mixtures were also modeled using artificial neural network (ANN). Out of 155 ANN models, the best prediction was made by ANN511 with R 2 greater than 0.997 for both test and unseen data. The interaction effects observed through TGA experiments and subsequent kinetic analysis were further assessed in terms of product composition using analytical pyrolysis coupled with gas chromatograph/mass spectrometer (Py-GC/MS). Co-pyrolysis of PET and PA6 resulted in the formation of new aromatic compounds with nitrogen-containing functional groups, which were not detected when PET or PA6 were pyrolyzed individually.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design-time performance modeling of compositional parallel programs

Performance models are powerful instruments for understanding the performance of parallel systems and uncovering their bottlenecks. Already during system design, performance models can help ponder alternative development options. However, creating a performance model – whether theoretically or empirically – for an entire application that does not exist yet is challenging. In this paper, we propose to generate performance models of full programs from performance models of their components using formal composition operators derived from parallel design patterns. As long as the design of the overall system follows such a pattern, its performance model can be predicted with reasonable accuracy without an actual implementation. In conclusion, we demonstrate our approach with design patterns of varying complexity, including pipeline, task pool, and eventually MapReduce, which is representative of a broad class of data-analytics applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

nrelWattileExt (SkySpark Wattile Extension) [SWR-24-73]

The NREL Wattile extension, nrelWattileExt, provides an interface between SkySpark, an energy management and analytics software, and Wattile, an NREL-developed Python package for probabilistic prediction of building energy consumption. Wattile models predict discrete quantiles of the probability distribution of a target quantity (typically energy consumption) using the historical time series data from one or more predictors (typically weather data). Within SkySpark, predictions from Wattile models can be used for measurement & verification of building performance, detection of energy anomalies, and fault detection. Related to: https://github.com/NREL/Wattile

Frank, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of SPH code Spheral to model interacting solid bodies in a supersonic flow

Contemporary discussions of planetary defense involve analyzing the risks posed by smaller sized, 20 to 200 m diameter, asteroids which are capable of breaking up in the atmosphere and generating a blast wave. Consequence assessments for this size class of asteroids are performed through fast-running analytic or semi-analytic models which are informed by high-fidelity hydrocode simulations of asteroid entry and breakup. However, insufficient historical data necessitates validating the independent physical processes which dominate airburst events. Here, the Fluid Solid Interface Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics solver was previously used by Pearl et al. in 2023 to model the Chelyabinsk airburst and is used here to perform a series of validation simulations. The first effort involves modeling a cylinder in a hypersonic flow and comparing the bow shock geometry to that predicted by analytic theory. The second effort involves modeling the separation of two spherical bodies in supersonic flow and validating against experimental footage. Combined, these exercises demonstrate the ability of the code to model the flight-path of interacting solid bodies in a hypersonic flow.

Airburst↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance evaluation of a wrapped around condenser for heat pump water heater applications

In this report, accurate performance evaluation of a wrapped-around condenser for heat pump water heaters (WHPWH) is critical since the COP of the system depends heavily on thermal stratification and condenser design. An analytical, quasi-steady state heat balance method has been developed to determine the optimal spacing between adjacent channels, tube diameter, tube shape, and total refrigerant charge amount for the condenser. The heat transfer rate is compared among three approaches: the refrigerant thermodynamic model, the condenser-wrap fin model, and the analytical natural convection model on the inside of the tank for the three regions based on the refrigerant phase (e.g., super-heated, saturated, or subcooled). The heat transfer rate was predicted by a combination of slug-plug and annular flow for a D-shaped helical tube. Experimental data were used as boundary conditions for validating the model. The rate of heat transfer based on tube shape and tank wall temperatures was compared by CFD analysis. Parametric analysis indicates a tradeoff between refrigerant mass, pressure drop, tube diameter, and tube length to maximize the heat transfer rate. The model suggests the saturated region length can be extended by 400%, and the condenser pressure drop can be reduced by 23% with an optimal spacing pattern.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of predictive performance models for supersonic gas-jet nozzles at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics

We present results characterizing the neutral-density distributions produced by the supersonic nozzles used in experiments on the OMEGA-60 and OMEGA-EP laser systems at the University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE). Axisymmetric Fluent® simulations using LLE nozzle specifications capture the viscous effects, gas expansion, and shock waves that complicate flow predictions for offsets above the nozzle exit. Here, these simulations show good agreement with neutral-density measurements obtained using a four-wave shearing interferometer. An analytical form is given for the plateau length. Fits to simulation data for boundary layer thickness, mean plateau density, and density ramps are given as functions of nozzle offset and nozzle backing pressure for a number of nozzles and gases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigations of nonlinear polarization transfer between obliquely intersecting beams

Electromagnetic waves propagating through plasma can interact nonlinearly through a variety of different mechanisms. The excitation of a plasma beat wave (ions or electrons) can create a refractive index modulation that changes the dispersion of the interacting beams. Alternatively, high-intensity beams can enter the regime where relativistic nonlinearities influence the propagation dynamics. In recent studies [ Opt. Express 29 , 1162 ( 2021 ) OPEXFF 1094-4087 10.1364/OE.413064 ], it was proposed that two beams propagating along the same axis can exchange their polarization state due to nonlinear interaction. Here we present a numerical analysis of two laser beams intersecting in a nonlinear medium at varying angles. Polarization transfer is observed as predicted by analytical theory for a range of angles. For small angles, it is found that filamentation of the interacting beams becomes important. Analytical estimates of the filamentation threshold are presented, and good agreement is found with the simulation data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the Freight Productivity of a Heavy-Duty, Battery Electric Truck by Intelligent Energy Management

This project aimed to enhance the range and reduce the operating costs of battery electric Class 8 trucks traveling over 250 miles daily. This was achieved through the development and implementation of an intelligent-Energy Management System (i-EMS) that leverages vehicle and operations data, physics-aware machine learning algorithms, and vehicle-to-cloud (V2C) connectivity. The project hypothesized that advanced machine learning algorithms and real-time data analytics could significantly improve the energy efficiency and range of these trucks. Key objectives included developing a physics-aware machine learning algorithm, implementing an i-EMS with V2C connectivity and physics-aware spatial data analytics (PSDA), and validating the system’s effectiveness with fleet partners HEB Companies and Murphy Logistics. Extensive data collection from vehicle operations, including vehicle characteristics, road conditions, and payload, was conducted. A machine learning algorithm was developed to predict energy consumption and enable proactive decision-making. The i-EMS was implemented on two Volvo VNR BEVs, with operators receiving charging and routing recommendations. Charging stations were installed at depot locations in Texas and Minnesota, with an additional on-route charger in Minnesota. Significant findings included a 14% range improvement for Murphy Logistics on a highway-driving eco-route and a 22% range improvement for HEB Companies on a city-driving eco-route. The i-EMS utilized rule-based methods and physics-based algorithms to predict and reduce energy consumption, with real-time monitoring and analysis through V2C connectivity enabling proactive decision-making. The project demonstrated the feasibility and economic viability of battery electric Class 8 trucks for long-haul operations, showcasing the potential of physics-aware machine learning in optimizing energy management. The successful implementation of the i-EMS in real-world scenarios validates its practical application and effectiveness, paving the way for the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles in the freight transportation industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward ultra-efficient high-fidelity predictions of wind turbine wakes: Augmenting the accuracy of engineering models with machine learning

This study proposes a novel machine learning (ML) methodology for the efficient and cost-effective prediction of high-fidelity three-dimensional velocity fields in the wake of utility-scale turbines. The model consists of an autoencoder convolutional neural network with U-Net skipped connections, fine-tuned using high-fidelity data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The trained model takes the low-fidelity velocity field cost-effectively generated from the analytical engineering wake model as input and produces the high-fidelity velocity fields. The accuracy of the proposed ML model is demonstrated in a utility-scale wind farm for which datasets of wake flow fields were previously generated using LES under various wind speeds, wind directions, and yaw angles. Comparing the ML model results with those of LES, the ML model was shown to reduce the error in the prediction from 20% obtained from the Gauss Curl hybrid (GCH) model to less than 5%. In addition, the ML model captured the non-symmetric wake deflection observed for opposing yaw angles for wake steering cases, demonstrating a greater accuracy than the GCH model. The computational cost of the ML model is on par with that of the analytical wake model while generating numerical outcomes nearly as accurate as those of the high-fidelity LES.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gravitational Fluctuations as an Alternative to Inflation III. Numerical Results

Power spectra play an important role in the theory of inflation, and their ability to reproduce current observational data to high accuracy is often considered a triumph of inflation, largely because of a lack of credible alternatives. In previous work we introduced an alternative picture for the cosmological power spectra based on the nonperturbative features of the quantum version of Einstein’s gravity, instead of currently popular inflation models based on scalar fields. The key ingredients in this new picture are the appearance of a nontrivial gravitational vacuum condensate (directly related to the observed cosmological constant), and a calculable renormalization group running of Newton’s G on cosmological scales. More importantly, one notes the absence of any fundamental scalar fields in this approach. Results obtained previously were largely based on a semi-analytical treatment, and thus, while generally transparent in their implementation, often suffered from the limitations of various approximations and simplifying assumptions. In this work, we extend and refine our previous calculations by laying out an updated and extended analysis, which now utilizes a set of suitably modified state-of-the-art numerical programs (ISiTGR, MGCAMB and MGCLASS) developed for observational cosmology. As a result, we are able to remove some of the approximations employed in our previous studies, leading to a number of novel and detailed physical predictions. These should help in potentially distinguishing the vacuum condensate picture of quantum gravity from that of other models such as scalar field inflation. Here, besides the matter power spectrum P m (k) , we work out, in detail, predictions for what are referred to as the TT, TE, EE, BB angular spectra, as well as their closely related lensing spectra. However, the current limited precision of observational data today (especially on large angular scales) does not allow us yet to clearly prove or disprove either set of ideas. Nevertheless, by exploring in more details the relationship between gravity and cosmological matter and radiation both analytically and numerically, together with an expected future influx of increasingly accurate observational data, one can hope that the new quantum gravitational picture can be subjected to further stringent tests in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase Transition and Criticality of Methane Confined in Nanopores

For the first time, the phase transition and criticality of methane confined in nanoporous media are measured. The measurement is performed by establishing an experimental setup utilizing a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) capable of operating under very low temperatures as well as high pressures to detect the capillary phase transition of methane inside nanopores. By performing experiments along isochoric cooling paths, both the capillary condensation and the bulk condensation of methane are detected. Here, the pore critical point (PCP) of nanoconfined methane is also determined and then used to derive the parameters of a previously developed self-consistent equation of state based on the Generalized van der Waals (vdW) partition function. Using this parameter, the equation of state can predict the capillary-condensation curves that agree well with the experimental data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Transport Properties of Methane–Hydrogen Mixtures under the Interior Conditions of Ice Giants

Inaccuracy in our knowledge of the transport properties of relevant mixtures under planetary interior conditions is a roadblock in predicting the observable properties of planets in our solar system and beyond. In this work, we investigate methane–hydrogen mixtures using data sets obtained from density functional theory calculations for the electronic structure, combined with molecular dynamics simulations for the ions for a wide range of pressure and temperature. Hydrogen concentration significantly affects the equation of state (EOS) but has little influence on transport properties. We provide an analytical expression to model thermal EOS and transport properties as a function of hydrogen content, with the maximum deviation observed at low P–T conditions. These insights are particularly relevant to improve the planetary models and enhance our ability to predict the properties of “ice” giants and beyond.

Methane↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of CDM-Based Creep Constitutive Model Using Accelerated Creep Test (ACT) Data

In conventional creep testing (CCT) a specimen is subject to constant load and temperature for a long-duration until creep rupture occurs. Conventional testing can be costly when considering the number of experiments needed to characterize the creep response of a material over a range of stress and temperature. To predict long-term creep-rupture properties, the time-temperature-stress superposition principle (TTSSP) approach has been employed where stress and/or temperature is applied at an elevated level; the result of which are extrapolated down to low stress and/or temperature conditions. These methods have been successful in predicting minimum-creep-strain-rate (MCSR) and stress-rupture (SR) but suffer from an inability to predict the creep deformation curve or account for changes in deformation mechanisms or aging that occurs at long-duration. An accelerated technique, termed the Stepped isostress method (SSM) allows the accelerated testing of materials to determine their creep deformation response. Unlike TTSSP tests, the SSM test employs a single specimen where the stress is periodically step increased until rupture. The SSM creep deformation curve is processed (time and strain shifted) to produce an accelerated creep deformation curve that represent the creep deformation curve at the initial stress level in SSM. A processing procedure for metals has yet to be developed. The research objective of this study is to develop a processing procedure for SSM test data using a creep-damage constitutive model. Triplicate SSM tests were conducted on Ni-based superalloy Inconel 718 at 650°C with stress being periodically increased until rupture. Triplicate CCT tests were conducted at the initial stress level of the SSM tests. The Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) creep-damage model was employed in this study. The Sinh creep-damage constitutive model is based on coupled creep strain rate and damage evolution equations; where both rates are dependent on the current state of damage. Calibration is two-step: analytical and numerical optimization. Each stepped creep deformation curve is tackled quasi-analytically to determine MCSR and SR related material constants and accumulated damage. The damage accumulated at the end of each step was then passed onto subsequent steps to calibrate the MCSR, rupture prediction, and damage evolution. Numerical optimization was applied to optimize model constants involved in the creep strain constitutive equations in order to generate best-fitted Sinh creep deformation curves. The Sinh model predictions were compared to the SSM and CCT data. The Sinh model satisfactorily predicts the SSM data and thus the calibrated material constants provides a good estimate of rupture found in the CCT data. Calibration using SSM data reduces the number of tests needed to calibrate a model; significantly reducing costs. A single SSM test replaces numerous creep tests at different stresses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗