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At least 271 records · Page 15

Strawman Philosophical Guide for Developing International Network of GPM GV Sites

The creation of an international network of ground validation (GV) sites that will support the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission's international science programme will require detailed planning of mechanisms for exchanging technical information, GV data products, and scientific results. An important component of the planning will be the philosophical guide under which the network will grow and emerge as a successful element of the GPM Mission. This philosophical guide should be able to serve the mission in developing scientific pathways for ground validation research which will ensure the highest possible quality measurement record of global precipitation products. The philosophical issues, in this regard, partly stem from the financial architecture under which the GV network will be developed, i.e., each participating country will provide its own financial support through committed institutions -- regardless of whether a national or international space agency is involved.At the 1st International GPM Ground Validation Workshop held in Abingdon, UK in November-2003, most of the basic tenants behind the development of the international GV network were identified and discussed. Therefore, with this progress in mind, this presentation is intended to put forth a strawman philosophical guide supporting the development of the international network of GPM GV sites, noting that the initial progress has been reported in the Proceedings of the 1st International GPM GV Workshop -- available online. The central philosophical issues themselves, all flow from the fact that each participating institution can only bring to the table, GV facilities and scientific personnel that are affordable to the sanctioning (funding) national agency (be that a research, research-support, or operational agency). This situation imposes on the network, heterogeneity in the measuring sensors, data collection periods, data collection procedures, data latencies, and data reporting capabilities. Therefore, in order for the network to be effective in supporting the central scientific goals of the GPM mission, there must be a basic agreed upon doctrine under which the network participants function vis-a-vis: (1) an overriding set of general scientific requirements, (2) a minimal set of policies governing the free flow of GV data between the scientific participants, (3) a few basic definitions concerning the prioritization of measurements and their respective value to the mission, (4) a few basic procedures concerning data formats, data reporting procedures, data access, and data archiving, and (5) a simple means to differentiate GV sites according to their level of effort and ability to perform near real-time data acquisition - data reporting tasks. Most important, in case they choose to operate as a near real-time data collection-data distribution site, they would be expected to operate under a fairly narrowly defined protocol needed to ensure smooth GV support operations. This presentation will suggest measures responsive to items (1) - (5) from which to proceed,. In addition, this presentation will seek to stimulate discussion and debate concerning how much heterogeneity is tolerable within the eventual GV site network, given that the any individual GV site can only be considered scientifically useful if it supports the achievement of the central GPM Mission goals. Only ground validation research that has a direct connection to the space mission should be considered justifiable given the overarching scientific goals of the mission. Therefore each site will have to seek some level of accommodation to what the GPM Mission requires in the way of retrieval error characterization, retrieval error detection and reporting, and generation of GV data products that support assessment and improvement of the mission's standard precipitation retrieval algorithms. These are all important scientific issues that will be best resolved in open scientific debate.

Smith, Eric A.↗

A multimodel intercomparison of resolution effects on precipitation: simulations and theory

An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961–2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov–Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolution over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. In conclusion, this theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The next generation of spaceborne rain radars: science rationales and technology status

The 13.8 GHz Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the US/Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite is the first rain profiling radar ever launched into space. A TRMM follow-on mission, called the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM), is currently planned to extend and improve the TRMM acquired rainfall data set.

precipitation radar TRMM GPM↗

Microstructures and mechanical properties of a modified 9Cr ferritic-martensitic steel in the as-built condition after additive manufacturing

A newly developed nano-structured high-Mn 9Cr ferritic-martensitic (FM) steel designed for additive manufacturing (Additive-manufactured Nanostructured Alloy, ANA) was fabricated via the direct energy deposition method. The as-printed ANA2 showed tensile properties (strength and elongation) and Charpy impact toughness (upper-shelf energy and ductile-brittle transition temperature) comparable to oxide-dispersion-strengthened (ODS) Eurofer and PM2000. Compared with wrought P91, the as-built ANA2 showed significantly higher yield strength but inferior Charpy impact toughness and ductility. Microstructural characterization revealed uniformly distributed sub-micron pores, an extremely high dislocation density, and a high density of ultrafine nano-structured precipitates in the matrix. The microstructures indicated the dislocations as the dominant strengthening element and the ultrafine precipitates as the primary contribution to estimated irradiation sink density. This work demonstrates the ability to exploit the unique consolidation properties of additive manufacturing to fabricate steels which marry the benefits of both ODS alloys and conventionally processed FM steels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the WAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An image-driven machine learning approach to kinetic modeling of a discontinuous precipitation reaction

Micrograph quantification is an essential component of several materials science studies. Machine learning methods, in particular convolutional neural networks, have previously demonstrated performance in image recognition tasks across several disciplines (e.g. materials science, medical imaging, facial recognition). Here, we apply these well-established methods to develop an approach to microstructure quantification for kinetic modeling of a discontinuous precipitation reaction in a case study on the uranium-molybdenum system. Prediction of material processing history based on image data (classification), calculation of area fraction of phases present in the micrographs (segmentation), and kinetic modeling from segmentation results were performed. Results indicate that convolutional neural networks represent microstructure image data well, and segmentation using the k-means clustering algorithm yields results that agree well with manually annotated images. Classification accuracies of original and segmented images are both 94% for a 5-class classification problem. Kinetic modeling results agree well with previously reported data using manual thresholding. The image quantification and kinetic modeling approach developed and presented here aims to reduce researcher bias introduced into the characterization process, and allows for leveraging information in limited image data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Disentangling error structures of precipitation datasets using decision trees

Characterizing error structures in precipitation products not only facilitates their proper applications for scientific and practical purposes but also helps improve their retrieval algorithms and processing methods. Despite the fact that multiple precipitation products have been assessed in the literature, factors that affect their error structures remain inadequately addressed. By interpreting 60 binary decision trees, this study disentangles the error characteristics of precipitation products in terms of their spatiotemporal patterns and geographical factors. Three independent precipitation products - two satellite-based and one reanalysis datasets: the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) late run (IMERG-L), Soil Moisture to Rain-Advanced SCATterometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 uncorrected precipitation output (MERRA2-UC), are evaluated across the contiguous United States from 2010 to 2019. Here, the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. Results indicate that the MERRA2-UC outperforms the IMERG-L and SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the analysis period. Decision trees cross-assess three spatiotemporal factors and find that the underestimation of MERRA2-UC occurs in the east of the Rocky Mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine different geographical characteristics, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover type, topography position index, and aspect are three relatively weak factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of twin growth mechanisms in precipitate hardened AZ91

Here, in this work, an elasto-viscoplastic fast-Fourier-transform (EVP-FFT) model with a dislocation-density (DD) based hardening law is employed to study the growth of a {10$\bar{1}$2} tensile twin that is blocked by basal-precipitates in precipitate-hardened AZ91 magnesium alloy. It is frequently reported that twin growth is hindered in precipitate-hardened Mg alloys; however, thick twin domains are often observed experimentally in these material systems. Detailed numerical investigation of deformation twinning starting from an early propagation stage, before twin growth, reveals that the stress fields that result from two sequentially propagated twins co-impinging on a precipitate relaxes the twin back stress locally and promotes twin growth at the twin-precipitate junction. Based on these findings, a two-step growth mechanism is proposed for twins arrested by precipitates. In the first step, the interaction of a twin tip with a precipitate develops a stress concentration on the other side of the precipitate, prompting the formation of a second twin. Subsequently, the back stresses associated with the first twin are relaxed by the formation of the second twin, allowing the first twin to grow at the twin-precipitate junction and eventually engulf the precipitate. This mechanism suggests that twin growth can be achieved locally with minimal additional external forces, explaining how relatively large twin domains can develop even in the presence of arrays of precipitates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction

Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of welding and post-weld heat treatments on nanoscale precipitation and mechanical properties of an ultra-high strength steel hardened by NiAl and Cu nanoparticles

The effects of welding and post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) on nanoscale co-precipitation, grain structure, and mechanical properties of an ultra-high strength steel were studied through a combination of atom probe tomography (APT) and mechanical tests. Our results indicate that the welding process dissolves all pre-existing nanoparticles and causes grain coarsening in the fusion zone, resulting in a soft and ductile weld without any cracks in the as-welded condition. A 550 °C PWHT induces fine-scale re-precipitation of NiAl and Cu co-precipitates with high number densities and ultra-fine sizes, leading to a large recovery of strength but a loss of ductility with intergranular failure, whereas a 600 °C PWHT gives rise to coarse-scale re-precipitation of nanoparticles together with the formation of a small amount of reverted austenite, resulting in a great recovery in both strength and ductility. Our analysis indicates that the degree of strength recovery is dependent mainly upon the re-precipitation microstructure of nanoparticles, together with grain size and reversion of austenite, while the ductility recovery is sensitive to the grain-boundary structure. In conclusion, APT reveals that the grain-boundary segregation of Mn and P may be the main reason for the 550 °C embrittlement, and the enhanced ductility at 600 °C is ascribed to a possible reduction of the segregation and reversion of austenite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of a Simple Convective Organization Scheme in a Two‐Plume GCM

Abstract A set of experiments is described with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) using a two‐plume convection scheme. To represent the differences of organized convection from General Circulation Model (GCM) assumptions of isolated plumes in uniform environments, a dimensionless prognostic “organization” tracer Ω is invoked to lend the second plume a buoyancy advantage relative to the first, as described in Mapes and Neale (2016). When low‐entrainment plumes are unconditionally available (Ω = 1 everywhere), deep convection occurs too easily, with consequences including premature (upstream) rainfall in inflows to the deep tropics, excessive convective versus large‐scale rainfall, poor relationships to the vapor field, stable bias in the mean state, weak and poor tropical variability, and midday peak in diurnal rainfall over land. Some of these are shown to also be characteristic of CAM4 with its separated deep and shallow convection schemes. When low‐entrainment plumes are forbidden by setting Ω = 0 everywhere, some opposite problems can be discerned. In between those extreme cases, an interactive Ω driven by the evaporation of precipitation acts as a local positive feedback loop, concentrating deep convection: In areas of little recent rain, only highly entraining plumes can occur, unfavorable for rain production. This tunable mechanism steadily increases precipitation variance in both space and time, as illustrated here with maps, time‐longitude series, and spectra, while avoiding some mean state biases as illustrated with process‐oriented diagnostics such as conserved variable profiles and vapor‐binned precipitation curves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dual-Polarization Radar Fingerprints of Precipitation Physics: A Review

This article reviews how precipitation microphysics processes are observed in dual-polarization radar observations. These so-called “fingerprints” of precipitation processes are observed as vertical gradients in radar observables. Fingerprints of rain processes are first reviewed, followed by processes involving snow and ice. Then, emerging research is introduced, which includes more quantitative analysis of these dual-polarization radar fingerprints to obtain microphysics model parameters and microphysical process rates. New results based on a detailed rain shaft bin microphysical model are presented, and we conclude with an outlook of potentially fruitful future research directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrological Controls on Residual Contaminants Under Sustainable Remediation - 19287

This paper investigates the impact of natural aquifer's recharge shifts induced by precipitation changes on residual contaminants located in soil and groundwater, subject to sustainable remediation techniques. We illustrate five climate change scenarios which mimic shifts in the natural recharge regime. We evaluate the impact on different performance metrics that include contaminant concentrations at observation wells and contaminant export to a creek. The approach is demonstrated by simulating the tritium plume migration within a U.S. Department of Energy's nuclear reservations: the Savannah River Site F-Area. Results show that increasing the aquifers' recharge initially causes a decrease in the well concentrations due to dilution, and subsequently an increase due to the mobilization of contaminants from the vadose zone. As the recharge shift increases, the peak concentration is higher and may occur at an earlier stage. The mobilized contaminants reach the wells or control planes several years or decades later than the precipitation events thus monitoring near the source zone is important for early detecting mobilized contaminants. Moreover, we observe that, even when the well concentrations are significantly affected, the export at the control planes may not be affected by shifts in the natural recharge regime therefore the risk of downgradient population may be under control even under significant hydrological changes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Improving Global Precipitation Product Access at the GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been actively and continually engaged in improving the access to and use of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM), and other precipitation data, including the following new services and Ongoing development activities: Updates on GPM products and data services, New features in Giovanni, Ongoing development activities; and Precipitation product and service outreach activities.

satellites↗

Improving Global Precipitation Product Access at the GES DISC

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has been actively and continually engaged in improving the access to and use of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM), and other precipitation data, including the following new services and ongoing development activities: Updates on GPM products and data services; New features in Giovanni; Ongoing development activities; Precipitation product and service outreach activities.

Ostrenga, D.↗