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NASA NTRS1993

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Starlinger, Alois↗

NASA NTRS1995

Discovery of candidate cataclysmic variables in the post-core-collapse globular cluster NGC 6397

A photometric search for objects with H alpha emission in the globular cluster NGC 6397 has been carried out with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Planetary Camera. Images were obtained through the F675W (similar to Johnson R) and F656N (H alpha) filters, and photometry carried out on approximately 900 stars detected in the central approximately 38 x 35 arcseconds of the cluster. Limiting magnitudes of R approximately 21 and 19.5 were reached in the F675W and F656N images, respectively. Three H alpha-bright stars are found which have apparent magnitudes in the range R = 17.8-19.5. The corresponding absolute magnitudes (M(sub R) = 5.6-7.3) and inferred H alpha emission-line strengths (EW(H alpha) greater than or approximately equal to 15-26 A) make these objects good candidates to be cataclysmic variables (CVs) in this nearby, post-collapse cluster. All three H alpha-bright objects are found to be UV-bright in a photometric comparison of the F675W images with archival HST Faint Object Camera (FOC) images of the cluster center through the F220W and F346M filters. Such UV excesses further support the identification of these objects as candidates to be CVs in the cluster. The H alpha-bright stars are within the error circles of three X-ray sources previously found with the ROSAT High Resoltion Imager (HRI) and are likley to be the dominant source of the X-ray emission. The implied X-Ray to optical flux ratios (f(sub x)/f(sub v) approximately 0.8-4.2) are consistent with CVs known elsewhere in the Galaxy. Two additional stars with possible H alpha emission are also discussed, along the stars identified on the basis of UV emisssion. Preliminary completeness estimates suggest that these observations should be sensitive to approximately one-third to two-thirds of most varieties of CVs in the cluster, and that therefore greater than or approximately 5-10 CVs are likely to be present in the observed section of NGC 6397. Scaling these numbers to the cluster as a whole would increase these numbers by up to a factor of 2. A total CV population on the order of 5-20 is in reasonable with previous estimates made on the basis of X-ray observations, and with theoretical predictions scaled to this cluster.

Cool, Adrienne M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-term Climate Change Through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM < or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

air quality↗

NASA NTRS2004

An Admittance Survey of Large Volcanoes on Venus: Implications for Volcano Growth

Estimates of the thickness of the venusian crust and elastic lithosphere are important in determining the rheological and thermal properties of Venus. These estimates offer insights into what conditions are needed for certain features, such as large volcanoes and coronae, to form. Lithospheric properties for much of the large volcano population on Venus are not well known. Previous studies of elastic thickness (Te) have concentrated on individual or small groups of edifices, or have used volcano models and fixed values of Te to match with observations of volcano morphologies. In addition, previous studies use different methods to estimate lithospheric parameters meaning it is difficult to compare their results. Following recent global studies of the admittance signatures exhibited by the venusian corona population, we performed a similar survey into large volcanoes in an effort to determine the range of lithospheric parameters shown by these features. This survey of the entire large volcano population used the same method throughout so that all estimates could be directly compared. By analysing a large number of edifices and comparing our results to observations of their morphology and models of volcano formation, we can help determine the controlling parameters that govern volcano growth on Venus.

Brian, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using a Cloud-Mesoscale Model and TRMM Satellite

The urban heat island (UHI) has become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomena because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). The UHI has been documented in the literature to affect local and regional temperature distributions, wind patterns and air quality. The UHI can also impact the development of clouds and precipitation in and around cities. This paper will focus primarily on the UHI's impact on precipitation. In the past 30 years, several observational and climatological studies have theorized that the UHI can have a significant influence on mesoscale circulations and resulting precipitation (see Shepherd et al. 2002 for a thorough review). More recent studies have continued to validate and extend the findings from pre and post-METROMEX investigations. Shepherd et al. (2002) was one of the first (and possibly the first) attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Using a 15-month (spanning three years) analysis of mean rainfall rates, the cities of Atlanta, Montgomery, Dallas, Waco, and San Antonio were examined. Shepherd et al. (2002) found that the average percentage increase in mean rainfall rate in a hypothesized "downwind maximum impact area" over an "upwind control area" was 28.4% with a range of 14.6 to 51%. The typical distance of the downwind rainfall rate anomaly from the urban center was 30-60 km, consistent with earlier studies. This fact provides confidence that UHI-rainfall effects are real and detectable by TRMM satellite estimates.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the populating mechanisms of the autoionising states of Al III ions produced in a Penning ionisation discharge

Spectra emitted by Al II and Al III in the 100-1900-A range from a Penning ionization discharge (PID) have been analyzed in order to study the populating mechanisms of the autoionizing levels of the Al III ion. Electron temperature and density estimates and Al III line intensities obtained using a collisional-radiative model are found to differ from those obtained experimentally, implying that the autoionizing levels of the Na I-like ion may be populated, in the PID plasma, by the inner-shell ionization of excited Mg I-like ions. It is suggested that such autoionizing lines could be used to search for populations inversions in the soft X-ray domain.

Finkenthal, M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

X-Ray Absorbed, Broad-Lined, Red AGN and the Cosmic X-Ray Background

We have obtained XMM spectra for five red, 2MASS AGN, selected from a sample observed by Chandra to be X-ray bright and to cover a range of hardness ratios. Our results confirm the presence of substantial absorbing material in three sources which have optical classifications ranging from Type 1 to Type 2, with an intrinsically flat (hard) power law continuum indicated in the other two. The presence of both X-ray absorption and broad optical emission lines with the usual strength suggests either a small (nuclear) absorber or a favored viewing angle so as to cover the X-ray source but not the broad emission line region (BELR). A soft excess is detected in all three Type 1 sources. We speculate that this soft X-ray emission may arise in an extended region of ionized gas, perhaps linked with the polarized (scattered) light which is a feature of these sources. The spectral complexity revealed by XMM emphasizes the limitations of the low S/N Chandra data. Overall, the new XMM results strengthen our conclusions (Wilkes et al. 2002) that the observed X-ray continua of red AGN are unusually hard at energies greater than 2 keV. Whether due to substantial line-of-sight absorption or to an intrinsically hard or reflection-dominated spectrum, these 'red' AGN have an observed spectral form consistent with contributing significantly to the missing had absorbed population of the Cosmic X-ray Background (CXRB). When absorption and or reflection is taken into account, all these AGN have power law slopes typical of broad-line (Type 1) AGN (Gamma approximately 1.9). This appears to resolve the spectral paradox which for so long has existed between the CXRB and the AGN thought to be the dominant contributors. It also suggests two scenarios whereby Type 1 AGN/QSOs may be responsible for a significant fraction of the CXRB at energies above 2 keV: 1) X-ray absorbed AGN/QSOs with visible broad emission lines; 2) AGN/QSOs with complex spectra whose hardness greater than 2 keV is not detectable in the typically low S/N data of X-ray surveys. Even if absorption is present in only half of the population, the large number of 'red' AGN suggests a development of unification models, where the continuum source is surrounded, over a substantial solid angle, by the wind or atmosphere of an accretion disk/torus. X-ray observations of such AGN not only provide a check on the presence of absorption, but also a unique probe of the absorbing material. Improved information on their space density, in particular as a function of redshift, will soon be provided by Spitzer-Chandra wide area surveys, allowing better estimates of both the importance of red AGN to the full AGN population and their contribution to the CXRB.

Mushotzky, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2020

REQUIEM-2D Methodology: Spatially Resolved Stellar Populations of Massive Lensed Quiescent Galaxies from Hubble Space Telescope 2D Grism Spectroscopy

We present a novel Bayesian methodology to jointly model photometry and deep Hubble Space Telescope 2D grism spectroscopy of high-redshift galaxies. Our requiem2d code measures both unresolved and resolved stellar populations, ages, and star formation histories (SFHs) for the ongoing REsolving QUIEscent Magnified (REQUIEM) Galaxies Survey, which targets strong gravitationally lensed quiescent galaxies at z ∼ 2. We test the accuracy of requiem2d using a simulated sample of massive galaxies at z ∼ 2 from the Illustris cosmological simulation and find that we recover the general trends in SFH and median stellar ages. We further present a pilot study for the REQUIEM Galaxies Survey: MRG-S0851, a quintuply imaged, massive (log M ⁎ / M ʘ = 11.02 ± 0.04) red galaxy at z = 1.883 ± 0.001. With an estimated gravitational magnification of µ = 5.7 - 0.2 + 0.4, we sample the stellar populations on 0.6 kpc physical size bins. The global mass-weighted median age is constrained to be 1.8 - 0.2 + 0.3 Gyr, and our spatially resolved analysis reveals that MRG-S0851 has a flat age gradient in the inner 3 kpc core after taking into account the subtle effects of dust and metallicity on age measurements, favoring an early formation scenario. The analysis for the full REQUIEM-2D sample will be presented in a forthcoming paper with a beta release of the requiem2d code.

Strong gravitational lensing↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicting Electron Population Characteristics in 2-D Using Multispectral Ground-Based Imaging

Ground-based imaging and in situ sounding rocket data are compared to electron transport modeling for an active inverted-V type auroral event. The Ground-to-Rocket Electrodynamics-Electrons Correlative Experiment (GREECE) mission successfully launched from Poker Flat, Alaska, on 3 March 2014 at 11:09:50 UT and reached an apogee of approximately 335 km over the aurora. Multiple ground-based electron-multiplying charge-coupled device (EMCCD) imagers were positioned at Venetie, Alaska, and aimed toward magnetic zenith. The imagers observed the intensity of different auroral emission lines (427.8, 557.7, and 844.6 nm) at the magnetic foot point of the rocket payload. Emission line intensity data are correlated with electron characteristics measured by the GREECE onboard electron spectrometer. A modified version of the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model is used to estimate precipitating electron characteristics based on optical emissions. GLOW predicted the electron population characteristics with 20% error given the observed spectral intensities within 10 deg of magnetic zenith. Predictions are within 30% of the actual values within 20 deg of magnetic zenith for inverted-V-type aurora. Therefore, it is argued that this technique can be used, at least in certain types of aurora, such as the inverted-V type presented here, to derive 2-D maps of electron characteristics. These can then be used to further derive 2-D maps of ionospheric parameters as a function of time, based solely on multispectral optical imaging data.

multispectral ground-based imaging↗

NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Land Surface Water Dynamics since the 1990s and Relation to Population Pressure

We developed a remote sensing approach based on multi-satellite observations, which provides an unprecedented estimate of monthly distribution and area of land-surface open water over the whole globe. Results for 1993 to 2007 exhibit a large seasonal and inter-annual variability of the inundation extent with an overall decline in global average maximum inundated area of 6% during the fifteen-year period, primarily in tropical and subtropical South America and South Asia. The largest declines of open water are found where large increases in population have occurred over the last two decades, suggesting a global scale effect of human activities on continental surface freshwater: denser population can impact local hydrology by reducing freshwater extent, by draining marshes and wetlands, and by increasing water withdrawals. Citation: Prigent, C., F. Papa, F. Aires, C. Jimenez, W. B. Rossow, and E. Matthews (2012), Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, in section 4, insisting on the potential applications of the wetland dataset.

Prigent, C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimating Ground-Level PM(sub 2.5) Concentrations in the Southeastern United States Using MAIAC AOD Retrievals and a Two-Stage Model

Previous studies showed that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with various health outcomes. Ground in situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5) concentrations are considered to be the gold standard, but are time-consuming and costly. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have the potential to supplement the ground monitoring networks to provide spatiotemporally-resolved PM(sub 2.5) exposure estimates. However, the coarse resolutions (e.g., 10 km) of the satellite AOD products used in previous studies make it very difficult to estimate urban-scale PM(sub 2.5) characteristics that are crucial to population-based PM(sub 2.5) health effects research. In this paper, a new aerosol product with 1 km spatial resolution derived by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was examined using a two-stage spatial statistical model with meteorological fields (e.g., wind speed) and land use parameters (e.g., forest cover, road length, elevation, and point emissions) as ancillary variables to estimate daily mean PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. The study area is the southeastern U.S., and data for 2003 were collected from various sources. A cross validation approach was implemented for model validation. We obtained R(sup 2) of 0.83, mean prediction error (MPE) of 1.89 micrograms/cu m, and square root of the mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) of 2.73 micrograms/cu m in model fitting, and R(sup 2) of 0.67, MPE of 2.54 micrograms/cu m, and RMSPE of 3.88 micrograms/cu m in cross validation. Both model fitting and cross validation indicate a good fit between the dependent variable and predictor variables. The results showed that 1 km spatial resolution MAIAC AOD can be used to estimate PM(sub 2.5) concentrations.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS2007

Solar Radiation Pressure Estimation and Analysis of a GEO Class of High Area-to-Mass Ratio Debris Objects

A population of deep space objects is thought to be high area-to-mass ratio (AMR) debris having origins from sources in the geosynchronous orbit (GEO) belt. The typical AMR values have been observed to range anywhere from 1's to 10's of m(sup 2)/kg, and hence, higher than average solar radiation pressure effects result in long-term migration of eccentricity (0.1-0.6) and inclination over time. However, the nature of the debris orientation-dependent dynamics also results time-varying solar radiation forces about the average which complicate the short-term orbit determination processing. The orbit determination results are presented for several of these debris objects, and highlight their unique and varied dynamic attributes. Estimation or the solar pressure dynamics over time scales suitable for resolving the shorter term dynamics improves the orbit estimation, and hence, the orbit predictions needed to conduct follow-up observations.

Kelecy, Tom↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale with electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles (EVs) over time. Under the worst-case assumption that each U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) can only access and utilize the electricity generated by power plants within its boundaries, it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the 25 most populous MSAs will decrease by about 61% from about 129,000 in the year 2021 to about 51,000 in the year 2050, due to the projected increase in ground EVs. Also, it is estimated that the number of these MSAs that may lack any available electrical grid power capacity for UAM operations will increase from zero MSAs in 2021 to eleven MSAs in 2050—including three MSAs that prospective UAM operators have announced as target markets (Los Angeles, Miami, and Orlando)—unless electricity demand for other purposes is reduced.

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Electrical Grid Capacity in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas for Urban Air Mobility

electrical grid↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sputtering by the Solar Wind: Effects of Variable Composition

It has long been recognized that solar wind bombardment onto exposed surfaces in the solar system will produce an energetic component to the exospheres about those bodies. Laboratory experiments have shown that there is no increase in the sputtering yield caused by highly charged heavy ions for metallic and for semiconducting surfaces, but the sputter yield can be noticeably increased in the case of a good insulating surface. Recently measurements of the solar wind composition have become available. It is now known that the solar wind composition is highly dependent on the origin of the particular plasma. Using the measured composition of the slow wind, fast wind, solar energetic particle (SEP) population, and coronal mass ejection (CME), broken down into its various components, we have estimated the total sputter yield for each type of solar wind. Whereas many previous calculations of sputtering were limited to the effects of proton bombardment. we show that the heavy ion component. especially the He++ component. can greatly enhance the total sputter yield during times when the heavy ion population is enhanced. We will discuss sputtering of both neutrals and ions.

Killen, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The origins of the plasma in the distant plasma sheet

It is pointed out that ion mass spectrometers operating in the keV range have recently begun to provide a new class of information on magnetospheric processes. One of the principal motivations for the development of energetic ion mass spectrometers has been to investigate the origins of the hot plasma populations of the magnetosphere. Peterson et al. (1981) were able to estimate the fractional ion density of ionospheric origin in five intervals by intercomparing the He(++) and H(+) spectra and assuming the excess low-energy H(+) ions were from the ionosphere. They obtained values in the range from 0.1 to 0.65. The present investigation is concerned with an expansion of the previous study. A substantially larger data base is utilized, and a different set of assumptions is considered to infer the relative fractions of solar and ionospheric H(+) and to look for systematic changes in the relative source strengths with magnetic activity.

Sharp, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

Duffy, Stephen F.↗