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At least 271 records · Page 15

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active control of a flexible beam

Because of inherent low damping and high flexibility, large space structures may require some form of active control of their dynamics. Because of the apparent inability to accurately model the dynamics of these structures, methods for parameter adaptive control are now being developed at Langley. This approach uses a digital computer to process discrete sensor data, identify modal parameters, calculate modal control gains, and then convert the modal forces to real forces. Some of the problems considered are: (1) the possibility that there may be modes to control with limited amounts of hardware, and (2) the required accuracy of identified structural parameters.

Williams, J. P.↗

A processing diagram for high-density Ti-6Al-4V by selective laser melting

Density optimization is the first critical step in building additively manufactured parts with highquality and good mechanical properties. In earlier work, we developed an approach that combines simulations and experiments to identify processing parameters for high-density parts. Here we present the results for Ti-6Al-4V using the laser powder-bed-fusion technique. We show how simple, but approximate, simulations are used to design parameters for a limited set of single track experiments. The resulting melt-pool characteristics are then used to identify processing parameters for high-density pillars. From these experimental data, a processing diagram based on the normalized energy density concept is constructed, illustrating an optimized processing window for high- or low-density samples. Excellent mechanical properties are obtained for Ti-6Al-4V samples built from the optimized window. We discuss the limitations and implications of the processing diagram on the microstructure and mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task D Final Report

Task D of DECOVALEX-2023 is focused on the simulation of the coupled thermal hydraulic-mechanical (THM) behaviour in the full-scale engineered barrier system (EBS). The Horonobe EBS experiment is the demonstration of the full-scale EBS in the underground research laboratory (URL) (performed by JAEA in the Horonobe URL in Japan). Task D consisted of the three steps, a preliminary step (Step 0), simulation of the laboratory tests (Step 1) and simulation of the in-situ full-scale EBS experiment (Step 2). Since the Horonobe EBS experiment demonstrates the vertical emplacement option of the EBS, the experiment gallery is also backfilled with the backfill material. Therefore, interaction between the EBS and the backfill material can also be demonstrated, such as deformation (change of density) of the buffer material. The underground water in the Horonobe URL is saline. This fact adds chemical processes to THM behaviour. For example, mechanical properties (such as swelling pressure of the buffer material and backfill material) and hydraulic properties (such as permeability of the buffer material and backfill material) change depending on the water chemistry. Task D was therefore a challenging Task focused on not only the relatively simple THM behaviour but also complex THM behaviour including chemical processes. Six research teams (BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI, SNL and Taipower) participated the Task D. BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI and Taipower research teams selected a THM approach, while the SNL research team selected a TH approach. Step 1 involved the simulation of laboratory test results and was important to check the numerical codes developed by the research teams. Step 1 was divided into four sub steps. The simulation results through the Step 1 identified the parameters for simulation of the Step 2. Basic parameters of the materials (buffer material, backfill material, rock mass, concrete, sand) were provided by JAEA. Special parameters which research team needed were identified by back analysis of Step 1. Most notably the mechanical behaviour of swelling and displacement depended on the applied model (elastic model or elastoplastic model). Parameters such as Young’s modulus were found to need smaller values than characterised in the fundamental laboratory test results (Step 1-1, 1-2) for the elastic model. Although laboratory experiments are usually simple, test results contained some error. For example, if the saturation level is 100 % or higher, it should be considered an error. This situation was presented in the Step 1-3. A possible reason is that the buffer material is a mixture of bentonite and silica sand. When a specimen is cut to measure volume or weight, sand grains will affect the measurement data. In Step 2, boundary conditions such as temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack, heater power of the electrical heaters installed in the simulated overpack, injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water, were applied. The outer boundary conditions can be selected using measured data (injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water that is controlled by the injection systems installed in the sand layer around the buffer material and in the boundary between backfill material and concrete support). Since such measured data has some noise, research teams developed their own simplified boundary conditions. Inner boundary conditions can be selected using measured data as heater power and temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack. These data also contain some noise, so research teams developed their own simplified developed boundary conditions. Task D validated various approaches thorough the simulation of the in-situ full scale EBS system including backfill of the gallery: variations in the coupling processes (THM or THC), analysis codes, and boundary conditions. Temperature distribution in the buffer material was simulated well by all research teams. This means thermal behaviour is not sensitive to the simulation approaches. Although the water content distribution on the outside of the buffer material was well simulated by all research teams, the simulation results differ from the measured values inside the buffer material (at the centre and inside, near the simulated overpack). The buffer material is made from tap water, but in the in-situ experiment, saline groundwater infiltrates the buffer material. Therefore, the selection of the hydraulic parameters of the buffer material greatly affects the simulation results of the re saturation behaviour of the buffer material. In the Horonobe EBS experiment, measured values suitable for validating the simulation results were not obtained near the simulated overpack. When simulating the pressure and deformation of the buffer material, the measurement data is easily affected by the installation conditions of the measurement sensors, so verifying the measurement data itself remains an issue. Mechanical simulation results differ depending on whether they are considered as elastic or elastoplastic phenomena. The accuracy of measured in-situ data can be assessed by detailed analysis comparing sampling specimen analysis and measured data. The Horonobe EBS experiment is scheduled to be dismantled in the future (FY2026 and 2027). This detailed dismantling investigation will finally confirm the measured data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis of Deploying Flexible Space Booms

A fundamental investigation of the planar deployment and lock-up of two flexible boom type appendages which have attached tip masses and are connected to a central rigid body through a rotational spring is presented. Nondimensional parameters are identified and it is shown that, in general, the solution depends only on two mass ratios and one nondimensional stiffness parameter. Results are presented for boom tip deflections, deployment time and root moments at lock-up. A threshold value of the nondimensional stiffness parameter is identified beyond which boom deflections become large. Also, a thorough examination of the effect of nonlinear terms in the equations governing the deployment phase is performed. Nonlinear terms in the deployment equations due to kinematics and structural deformation are required to predict more accurately boom deflections, but retention of an inconsistent set of nonlinear terms leads to erroneous results. In particular, retaining nonlinear kinematic terms while neglecting nonlinear structural terms can produce inaccurate results even below the threshold stiffness value.

Mcgowan, P. E.↗

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗

VALIDATION AND DETERMINATION OF SIGNIFICANT SIMULATION PARAMETERS USING THE SMOOTHED PARTICLE HYDRODYNAMIC CODE NEUTRINO

In recent years there has been an increase in flooding concern to nuclear power plants; thus, tools to reduce the cost of mitigation efforts are valuable to industry. Simulating flooding events is achieved through different methods and at varied levels of detail. However, these simulations must be able to match application conditions, which requires code validation as well as knowledge of which parameters affect the accuracy of the simulation. To validate and determine the significant parameters for these tools, a sloshing experiment was conducted at the George Washington University and then simulated with the smoothed particle hydrodynamic code Neutrino. The simulation setup was constructed to match the experiment as closely as possible, and the end-wall pressure results were analysed. The 90% and 50% end-wall pressure bounds were compared along with the pressure impulse. The simulation bounds fell mostly within the experimental bounds, with exceptions in insignificant low-pressure areas, such as at the beginning (~40% difference) and the end of the cycle (~40% difference). Another exception was seen at a point in the peak pressure (~75% difference). The simulated pressure impulse matched the experiments well and was within 10%. Additionally, seven parameters were qualitatively assessed and then investigated to determine their significance. The parameters’ significance was determined by sampling five values across the parameters’ range using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment, then comparing the average pressure for each run. All seven parameters were identified as having some significance. However, the particle size, interaction-radius to particle-size ratio, and fluid settling seem to have a greater effect due to the larger fluctuation of the results. Now that the significant parameters are identified, further research is being done to quantify the significance of each parameter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistically Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification for Physical Parameter Model Calibration with Functional Output

In experiments conducted on the Z-machine at Sandia National Laboratories, dynamic material properties cannot be analyzed using traditional analytic methods, necessitating solving an inverse problem. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework for solving an inverse problem to estimate parameters input into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Disentangling input parameter uncertainty and model misspecification is often poorly identified problem. When using computational models for physical parameter estimation, the issue of parameter identifiability must be carefully considered to obtain accurate and precise estimates of physical parameters. Additionally, in dynamic material properties applications, the experimental output is a function, velocity over time. While we can sample an arbitrarily large number of points from the measured velocity, these curves only contain a finite amount of information about the calibration parameters. In this report, we propose modifications to the Bayesian model calibration framework to simplify and improve the estimation of physical parameters with functional outputs. Specifically, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an effective sample size rather than modeling the discrepancy function; and modularizing input nuisance parameters with weakly identified parameters. We evaluate the performance of these proposed methods using a statistical simulation study and then apply these methods to estimate parameters of the tantalum equation of state. We conclude that these proposed methods can provide simple, fast, and statistically valid alternatives to the full Bayesian model calibration procedure; and that these methods can be used to estimate parameters of the equation of state for tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performance evaluation of a hybrid-passive landfill leachate treatment system using multivariate statistical techniques

Highlights: • Performance of a hybrid passive landfill leachate treatment system was evaluated. • 33 Water chemistry parameters were sampled for 21 months and statistically analyzed. • Parameters were strongly linked and explained most (>40%) of the variation in data. • Alkalinity, ammonia, COD, heavy metals, and iron were criteria for performance. • Eight other parameters were key in modeling system dynamics and criteria. - Abstract: A pilot-scale hybrid-passive treatment system operated at the Merrick Landfill in North Bay, Ontario, Canada, treats municipal landfill leachate and provides for subsequent natural attenuation. Collected leachate is directed to a hybrid-passive treatment system, followed by controlled release to a natural attenuation zone before entering the nearby Little Sturgeon River. The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the system using multivariate statistical techniques to determine the interactions between parameters, major pollutants in the leachate, and the biological and chemical processes occurring in the system. Five parameters (ammonia, alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), “heavy” metals of interest, with atomic weights above calcium, and iron) were set as criteria for the evaluation of system performance based on their toxicity to aquatic ecosystems and importance in treatment with respect to discharge regulations. System data for a full range of water quality parameters over a 21-month period were analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA), as well as principal components (PC) and partial least squares (PLS) regressions. PCA indicated a high degree of association for most parameters with the first PC, which explained a high percentage (>40%) of the variation in the data, suggesting strong statistical relationships among most of the parameters in the system. Regression analyses identified 8 parameters (set as independent variables) that were most frequently retained for modeling the five criteria parameters (set as dependent variables), on a statistically significant level: conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrite (NO{sub 2}{sup −}), organic nitrogen (N), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), pH, sulfate and total volatile solids (TVS). The criteria parameters and the significant explanatory parameters were most important in modeling the dynamics of the passive treatment system during the study period. Such techniques and procedures were found to be highly valuable and could be applied to other sites to determine parameters of interest in similar naturalized engineered systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Integrated Techno-economic Modeling Tool for sCO 2 Brayton Cycles

The supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) Brayton Economics Tool (sBET) was developed to evaluate and perform sensitivity studies on recompression closed Brayton cycles (RCBCs). This integrated techno-economic tool calculates key system performance and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) based on user-defined input on key variables such as system size, recuperator effectiveness, turbine inlet temperature, etc. The goal of this integrated tool is to allow system designers to understand the tradeoffs associated with various key design decisions, such as recuperator effectiveness and overall system cost. This work includes a description of LCOE calculation methodology, component system cost models for turbomachinery and heat exchangers based on vendor quotes and published literature, and the results of several parameter studies to identify desirable system parameters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Demeter calibration and uncertainty analysis

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)

Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Space Shuttle Orbiter entry guidance and control system sensitivity analysis

An approach has been developed to determine the guidance and control system sensitivity to off-nominal aerodynamics for the Space Shuttle Orbiter during entry. This approach, which uses a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom interactive, digital simulation, has been applied to both the longitudinal and lateral-directional axes for a portion of the orbiter entry. Boundary values for each of the aerodynamic parameters have been identified, the key parameters have been determined, and system modifications that will increase system tolerance to off-nominal aerodynamics have been recommended. The simulations were judged by specified criteria and the performance was evaluated by use of key dependent variables. The analysis is now being expanded to include the latest shuttle guidance and control systems throughout the entry speed range.

Stone, H. W.↗

The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Educational Experiences of Embry-Riddle Students through NASA Research Collaboration

NASA's educational programs benefit students while increasing the overall productivity of the organization. The NASA Graduate Student Research Program (GSRP) awards fellowships for graduate study leading to both masters and doctoral degrees in several technical fields, while the Cooperative Education program allows undergraduate and graduate students the chance to gain work experience in the field. The Mission Analysis Branch of the Expendable Launch Vehicles Division at NASA Kennedy Space Center has utilized these two programs with students from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University to conduct research in modeling and developing a parameter estimation method for spacecraft fuel slosh using simple pendulum analogs. Simple pendulum models are used to understand complicated spacecraft fuel slosh behavior. A robust parameter estimation process will help to identiFy the parameters that will predict the response fairly accurately during the initial stages of design. NASA's Cooperative Education Program trains the next wave of new hires while allowing graduate and undergraduate college students to gain valuable "real-world" work experience. It gives NASA a no risk capability to evaluate the true performance of a prospective new hire without relying solely on a paper resume, while providing the students with a greater hiring potential upon graduation, at NASA or elsewhere. In addition, graduate students serve as mentors for undergrad students and provide a unique learning environment. Providing students with a unique opportunity to work on "real-world" aerospace problems ultimately reinforces their problem solving abilities and their communication skills (in terms of interviewing, resume writing, technical writing, presentation, and peer review) that are vital for the workforce to succeed.

Schlee, Keith↗

Scaling for Nuclear Reactor System: Overview

A scaling analysis is essential for predicting the behavior of a reactor system under various operating conditions, as well as for ensuring safe and reliable experimentation and adequate dataset generation for supporting the system code model development and assessment in accordance with USNRC guidelines 1.203. Testing and modeling can be carried out at various scales, from small test units to full-scale reactors, to validate the predictions produced by the analysis. However, due to the cost and challenges associated with full-scale testing, the nuclear industry uses scaled test facilities—integral effect test (IET) and separate effect test (SET)—to identify potential design issues and optimize the design to ensure regulatory compliance for safer operation and anticipated accident management. In general, IET facilities are non-nuclear thermal hydraulics test facilities. In contrast, SET facilities can be non-nuclear testing (e.g., steam generator, containment, pump system SETs) and nuclear testing (mostly fuel-material irradiation testing). IETs are used to study the system-level thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor coolant system (RCS) under different anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) and design basis accidents (DBAs) such as loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) and loss-of-power (i.e., station blackout) and loss-of-flow (i.e., failure of RCS pump). Several LOCA scenarios could happen in reactor DBAs, such as main steam line break (MSLB), SG tube rapture (SGTR), break in direct vessel injection (DVI), and other small breaks LOCA. Scaling analysis determines the appropriate size and operating conditions for the test facility. This involves analyzing the system's thermal-hydraulic behavior at different scales and identifying the key parameters that affect the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor. These key parameters can be identified so that the scaled facility can replicate the expected conditions in a prototypical setting. The scaled facility can simulate the same flow rates, pressure gradients, heat transfer coefficients, and fluid properties as the prototype. Scaling analysis is used to ensure that the results from these tests can be scaled up to predict the behavior of a full-scale prototype with an acceptable range of scaling distortions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Recursive identification and tracking of parameters for linear and nonlinear multivariable systems

The problem of identifying constant and variable parameters in multi-input, multi-output, linear and nonlinear systems is considered, using the maximum likelihood approach. An iterative algorithm, leading to recursive identification and tracking of the unknown parameters and the noise covariance matrix, is developed. Agile tracking, and accurate and unbiased identified parameters are obtained. Necessary conditions for a globally, asymptotically stable identification process are provided; the conditions proved to be useful and efficient. Among different cases studied, the stability derivatives of an aircraft were identified and some of the results are shown as examples.

Sidar, M.↗

An adaptive learning control system for large flexible structures

The objective of the research has been to study the design of adaptive/learning control systems for the control of large flexible structures. In the first activity an adaptive/learning control methodology for flexible space structures was investigated. The approach was based on using a modal model of the flexible structure dynamics and an output-error identification scheme to identify modal parameters. In the second activity, a least-squares identification scheme was proposed for estimating both modal parameters and modal-to-actuator and modal-to-sensor shape functions. The technique was applied to experimental data obtained from the NASA Langley beam experiment. In the third activity, a separable nonlinear least-squares approach was developed for estimating the number of excited modes, shape functions, modal parameters, and modal amplitude and velocity time functions for a flexible structure. In the final research activity, a dual-adaptive control strategy was developed for regulating the modal dynamics and identifying modal parameters of a flexible structure. A min-max approach was used for finding an input to provide modal parameter identification while not exceeding reasonable bounds on modal displacement.

Thau, F. E.↗