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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD)

Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗
NASA NTRS2016

Defining Baconian Probability for Use in Assurance Argumentation

The use of assurance cases (e.g., safety cases) in certification raises questions about confidence in assurance argument claims. Some researchers propose to assess confidence in assurance cases using Baconian induction. That is, a writer or analyst (1) identifies defeaters that might rebut or undermine each proposition in the assurance argument and (2) determines whether each defeater can be dismissed or ignored and why. Some researchers also propose denoting confidence using the counts of defeaters identified and eliminated-which they call Baconian probability-and performing arithmetic on these measures. But Baconian probabilities were first defined as ordinal rankings which cannot be manipulated arithmetically. In this paper, we recount noteworthy definitions of Baconian induction, review proposals to assess confidence in assurance claims using Baconian probability, analyze how these comport with or diverge from the original definition, and make recommendations for future practice.

Graydon, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P_c) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P_c thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk Remediation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multistep Probability of Collision Computation Algorithm

The two-dimensional probability of collision calculation method is both widely used and computationally efficient. However, Monte Carlo simulations show that this method sometimes fails to provide sufficiently accurate estimates for Earthorbiting satellites. This study presents a multistep algorithm that calculates collision probabilities for all conjunctions, regardless if affected by curvilinear trajectory or time varying covariance dynamics. The algorithm sequentially applies increasingly accurate estimation methods, but only as required for efficiency. Evaluating usage violations for the two-dimensional probability of collision method represents one of the most important steps. Extensive testing demonstrates the efficiency and reliability of the multistep algorithm.

Doyle T. Hall↗
DOE OSTI2018

DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILISTIC FLOOD MAPS FOR PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD

The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. This includes probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) which are used as hydraulic design standards for critical infrastructures such as major hydropower reservoirs and nuclear power plants. To assess the potential flood hazards due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was utilized to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphical process unit accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information of conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. The proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization and hydro-meteorological factors allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 1: A Dynamic Formulation of SPAR-H

In almost all major nuclear power plants (NPP) events include a significant human error component. As an example, in Fukushima Daiichi (2011) nuclear meltdown, the human actions related to the high-pressure injection cooling strongly affected accident evolution. Furthermore, in the Three Mile Island accident (1979) (which was initiated by a stuck open valve and thus was triggered a loss of coolant accident) the unit operators made decisions based upon false assumptions that contributed negatively to the accident. Given these premises, the ability to accurately model human interactions with plant evolution and, in particular, dynamically calculate human error probability (HEP) plays a major role in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies and models the causes of human errors, and quantifies HEP by applying different methodologies. HRA methods identify errors and reflect on the understanding of error-prone people and systems. There are a number of HRA methods available that assist in identifying the vulnerabilities in the system and provide guidance in determining the HEP. HEP is the probability of a human failure event (HFE), and quantification of HEPs under various situations is utilized in PRA of large complex systems. One of the more prominent HRA methods is the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method that was developed to estimate HEPs for the use in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) PRA models employed in U.S. NPPs. SPAR-H is implemented in U.S. NPPs by regulators at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to determine the HEP based on expert estimation through the use of calculation worksheets. In SPAR-H, the nominal HEPs (NHEPs) are multiplied by performance shaping factors (PSF) multiplier values to obtain the overall error probability. PSFs encompass the human components, individual characteristics, their environment, and aspects of the task. With PSFs, the goal is to capture all factors that can affect human performance. In SPAR-H there are eight PSFs used, each having respective levels corresponding to multipliers: Available Time, Stress/Stressors, Complexity, Experience/Training, Procedures, Ergonomics/Human Machine Interface, Fitness for Duty, and Work Processes. The PSF multipliers indicate enhanced, nominal, or degraded human performance. The SPAR-H method estimates the HEP through multiplying a NHEP with PSFs. Hence, SPAR-H is a traditional HRA method that assesses human performance at a fixed, or static, point in time. In a dynamic HRA framework, human performance is assessed on a continuous time basis. SPAR-H can be used within a dynamic PRA framework through the use of simulation and stochastic models. The goal of dynamic HRA is to build a more realistic model of the human-system interaction to enhance calculation of reliability, risk and safety analysis. The progression of events in dynamic SPAR-H considers that some PSFs may experience gradual change, while other change can be sudden due to individualistic differences or rapid plant status changes. The PSF changes are caused by contextual changes in the scenario. For example, as more time passes, the realization that a task should be completed sooner may cause the operator more stress. In another example, a sudden relay of information about sickness of a family member may alter the operator's general stress level and fitness for duty. Each PSF has a different dynamic nature; PSFs like stress and complexity change more quickly over the course of a task than experience and training. While the experience of an operator changes over the course of attaining the objective, the amount that this added experience changes the HEP is very minimal. In contrast, the stress, complexity, and procedures PSFs may change quite a bit over the course of task completion.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 2: A Dynamic SPAR-H Example Application

Humans are an integral part of a nuclear power plant (NPP) from its construction, to its everyday maintenance and operation. In the nuclear industry there are many approaches to quantifying component reliability, which is called probability risk assessment (PRA). In PRA there are two considerations given to the quantification, static and dynamic. Static is quantified before or after an operation; and dynamic is time dependent, in that the probability changes as real time data are provided. In PRA, the importance of the components is calculated, but what of the importance of the human component? There are several methods for human reliability analysis (HRA), which include but are not limited to: THERP, ATHEANA, CREAM, SPAR-H, ASEP, and SLIM. Each of these methods aims to provide a more accurate and objective human error probability (HEP) quantification. Of the methods listed above, ASEP, THERP, and SPAR-H are all inextricably linked. The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method was generated to better generalize the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASEP). THERP is mapped to specific scenario templates, and ASEP is a simplified screening method, while SPAR-H employs generalizations to describe the spectrum of human behavior while maintaining the same theoretical underpinnings. SPAR-H is a well-known and accepted HRA method that uses performance shaping factors (PSFs) to classify inputs to the human component. PSFs capture a wide variety of input data, including plant status, crew dynamics, task description, and psychological aspects of the human operator. Current efforts have been focused to further generalize SPAR-H in to a dynamic framework. These methods can fit into dynamic NPP simulations such as RAVEN / RELAP-7. In order to do this, a dynamic methodology is applied to model the human as would be applied to the components. This method is applied in part one in the accompanying paper.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Estimating consistent biased source probabilities over arbitrary bins - 25621

This paper describes computational algorithms for estimating consistent biased source probabilities for the CADIS and FW-CADIS methods that are compatible with most of the general fixed-source capabilities of the MCNP continuous-energy transport code. The basic algorithm is a novel Monte Carlo sampling technique that enables the straightforward estimation of biased source probabilities over arbitrarily complex distribution trees. In recent work, a method has been developed for generating correct biased spatial source probabilities in the presence of rejection from an arbitrary number of geometry cells. Two numerical test problems that demonstrate the correctness of this new algorithm are presented, including a simplified model of a cooling water system with an N-17 neutron source. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of probability method to demonstrate unsafe configuration of dropped cans is not credible - 14268

An unanalyzed condition was identified for a transport cart that could result in multiple cans falling onto the ground. Calculations showed there were arrangements of four cans or five cans that could exceed the allowable k{sub eff} limit for a single upset. This was reported to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an unanalyzed condition. The cans would have to fall with very little spacing between them. The likelihood of this arrangement needed to be assessed. The probability of the unacceptable configuration was calculated based on a variation of Buffon's Clean Tile Problem. A series of conservative approximations were used including assuming that the rectangular cans are inscribed cylinders and the cylinders land on the base and do not tip over. Even with the conservative assumptions used, the calculated likelihood was less than 1 in 1,000,000 years. The notification was withdrawn based on this work since the event could be categorized as not credible. Additionally work was performed to account for the actual shape of the cans and rotation of the cans. The analysis was performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The average center-to-center spacing was used to establish a correlation with the system reactivity. The average center-to-center spacing also correlates with the probability of the configuration. With this the probability of having an unacceptable k{sub eff} was established. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Limit Shape of a Probability Measure on a Tensor Product of Modules of the B{sub n} Algebra

We study a probability measure on the integral dominant weights in the decomposition of the Nth tensor power of the spinor representation of the Lie algebra so(2n + 1). The probability of a dominant weight λ is defined as the dimension of the irreducible component of λ divided by the total dimension 2{sup nN} of the tensor power. We prove that as N →∞, the measure weakly converges to the radial part of the SO(2n+1)-invariant measure on so(2n+1) induced by the Killing form. Thus, we generalize Kerov’s theorem for su(n) to so(2n + 1).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Influences of the impurity and magnetic field on the probability density and the period of the asymmetric Gaussian potential qubit

The eigenenergies and eigenfunctions of the ground and first-excited states of an electron, which is coupled to an LO-phonon in a quantum dot with an asymmetric Gaussian (AG) potential, Coulomb bound potential and the magnetic field was studied by using Lee-Low-Pines transformation and Pekar variation method. A single qubit can be realized in this two-level quantum system. Numerical results show that the probability density of electrons in the qubit oscillates with changing the time, the well width and the well depth the AG potential. The probability density obviously fluctuates with changes in the magnetic-field cyclotron (MFC) frequency, the dielectric constant (DC) ratio and the electron–phonon coupling (EPC) strength, respectively, which is not conducive to constructing a suitable qubit. The oscillation period of the qubit decreases with increasing the DC ratio, EPC strength and the MFC frequency, respectively, which has an adverse effect on the survival time of qubit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities and line strengths of Ti{sup 11+}

Electric quadrupole transition probabilities and line strengths have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model for sodium-like titanium, considering many transition arrays. We employed numerical Coulomb approximation and non-relativistic Hartree–Fock wavefunctions for the expectation values of radii in determination of parameters of the model. The necessary energy values have been taken from experimental data in the literature. The calculated electric quadrupole line strengths have been compared with available data in the literature and good agreement has been obtained. Moreover, some electric quadrupole transition probability and line strength values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using this method.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗