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At least 271 records · Page 15

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2016

Safety envelope for load tolerance of structural element design based on multi-stage testing

Structural elements, such as stiffened panels and lap joints, are basic components of aircraft structures. For aircraft structural design, designers select predesigned elements satisfying the design load requirement based on their load-carrying capabilities. Therefore, estimation of safety envelope of structural elements for load tolerances would be a good investment for design purpose. In this article, a method of estimating safety envelope is presented using probabilistic classification, which can estimate a specific level of failure probability under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An important contribution of this article is that the calculation uncertainty is reflected in building a safety envelope using Gaussian process, and the effect of element test data on reducing the calculation uncertainty is incorporated by updating the Gaussian process model with the element test data. It is shown that even one element test can significantly reduce the calculation uncertainty due to lacking knowledge of actual physics, so that conservativeness in a safety envelope is significantly reduced. The proposed approach was demonstrated with a cantilever beam example, which represents a structural element. The example shows that calculation uncertainty provides about 93% conservativeness against the uncertainty due to a few element tests. As a result, it is shown that even a single element test can increase the load tolerance modeled with the safety envelope by 20%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Probabilistic and deterministic aspects of linear estimation in geodesy

Recent advances in observational techniques related to geodetic work (VLBI, laser ranging) make it imperative that more consideration should be given to modeling problems. Uncertainties in the effect of atmospheric refraction, polar motion and precession-nutation parameters, cannot be dispensed with in the context of centimeter level geodesy. Even physical processes that have generally been previously altogether neglected (station motions) must now be taken into consideration. The problem of modeling functions of time or space, or at least their values at observation points (epochs) is explored. When the nature of the function to be modeled is unknown. The need to include a limited number of terms and to a priori decide upon a specific form may result in a representation which fails to sufficiently approximate the unknown function. An alternative approach of increasing application is the modeling of unknown functions as stochastic processes.

Dermanis, A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation of Nuclear Structures in Terms of Reduced Risk and Cost

Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been implemented in many civil structures, including buildings, bridges, liquid natural gas tanks, and off shore oil platforms, both in the United States and other countries, to mitigate the damaging effects of earthquakes. Seismic isolation has also been used in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, but not yet in the United States: neither in the Department of Energy facilities nor in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is primarily due to a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction specific to seismically isolated nuclear structures. However, seismic isolation of nuclear structures has seen increased research interest in the recent years and the recently published national consensus standard, America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4-16 'Seismic analysis of safety related nuclear structures', now incorporates language and commentary (Chapter 12) for seismically isolating surface or near-surface-mounted nuclear facilities, including NPPs. Seismic isolation substantially reduces horizontal seismic loads (demands) on structures, systems, and components. Reduction in demand results in four potential benefits: (1) economic: reduction in capital cost, (2) increased safety: reduction in the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance, (3) insurance: protection against increases in the known seismic hazard after construction by minimizing the effort to re-qualify and re-certify structures, systems and components, and (4) recertification: the opportunity to certify an existing NPP design for a region of higher seismic hazard. Item (2) above, an increase in safety (reduction of seismic risk), was explored in Huang et al., wherein it was demonstrated that the implementation of seismic isolation reduced seismic risk in nuclear power plant structures. Studies that assess item (1) have not been performed although the use of isolation may lead to large reductions in the capital cost of safety-related nuclear facilities. Funding provided by Nuclear Safety Research and Development in the Department of Energy (DOE) allowed the authors to develop a framework for assessing the economic benefits and reductions in seismic risk afforded by the use of seismic (base) isolation. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimation of overnight capital costs (OCC's) of a sample generic DOE nuclear facility (GDNF). The project is documented in detail in Bolisetti et al. and Yu et al., and key results are presented here. The GDNF considered in this study is based on a facility constructed at the Idaho National Laboratory. The GDNF is a two-story reinforced concrete building with an embedded basemat and is founded on soft rock at the boundary of Site Class B and Site Class C (B/C boundary) as characterized by ASCE/SEI Standard 7. The GDNF is assumed to handle radiological materials, and its structure, systems and components (SSC's) are designed to effectively confine these materials in the event of an internal failure. The GDNF is populated with components that are generic to safety-related nuclear structures. A single system, which is intended to confine a loss of materials-at-risk (MAR) to the interior of the structure, is chosen for this study. Accordingly, a hypothetical event tree and fault tree are assumed for risk assessment. The isolation system for the GDNF is designed per Chapter 12 of ASCE/SEI 4-16 but is not optimized. The isolation system consists of 38 lead rubber bearings installed in one horizontal plane below the basemat. Details of the GDNF, including the SSC's, event tree and fault tree, and isolation system, are presented in the project report and Yu et al.. This study includes seismic risk assessment and cost estimation for four cases: (1) the GDNF is located at a site of low to moderate seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional (non-isolated) foundation; (2) the GDNF is located at the same site as case 1, but is seismically isolated; (3) the GDNF is located at a site of high seismic hazard and is constructed on a conventional foundation; and (4) the GDNF is located at the same site of high seismic hazard as case 3, but is seismically isolated. In this study, the DOE site at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is chosen as the low to moderate seismic hazard site for cases 1 and 2, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is chosen as the high seismic hazard site for cases 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Analysis of Long-Term Degradation of Microwave Cavity Flow Sensor

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Final Report on Development of Microwave Resonant Cavity Transducer for Fluid Flow Sensing: Development of Microwave Cavity Flow Meter for Advanced Reactor High Temperature Fluids

We are investigating a microwave resonant cavity transducer for flow sensing in the vessel of a high temperature fluid advanced reactor (AR), such as a molten salt cooled reactor (MSCR) or a sodium fast reactor (SFR). This transducer is a hollow metallic cylindrical cavity, with one of the flat walls of the cylinder flexible enough to undergo microscopic deflection due to dynamic fluid pressure. Membrane deflection leads to a shift in the microwave resonant frequency, which can be detected with a spectrum analyzer. We have developed a continuum electromechanics model of the microwave resonant cavity transducer performance. The deflection of the membrane is calculated using equations from the theory of plates and shells for deflection of radially constrained thin circular disk under uniform load. The microwave frequency shift is calculated using the equations from the microwave cavity perturbation theory. The transducer model was validated with proof-of-concept experimental data of water flow sensing with a Brass 360 right circular cylinder with 22.2mm diameter and 203µm thick wall. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole in TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. Subsequently, we have performed a preliminary proof-of-principle test of flow sensing in high temperature liquid sodium in environment. For this test, we have developed a cylindrical resonator with the same dimensions as for the Brass 360 cavity. The resonator for high temperature liquid sodium test was machined from stainless steel 316 and electroplated with silver on the interior surfaces. We have also developed and insertion probe consisting of a 50cm WR-42 brass waveguide enclosed in a protective SS316 tube. The cavity was excited through a subwavelength hole on the side of the wall of the cylinder in the TE 011 mode with resonant frequency f ≈ 17.8GHz. The liquid sodium setup consists of a cylindrical vessel with a center feed line, where a transducer inserted through the top cap of the vessel measures velocity of the impinging liquid jet. The sodium flow sensing study was performed in a liquid sodium vessel at 340°C temperature and ambient pressure. The flow rate was changed by varying sodium pump power, and a frequency shift of several hundred kHz was observed. The transducer was removed after 70 days of testing. No visual damage was observed, and the electromagnetic response remained the same. As a calibration experiment, we have assembled a water vessel with a center feed, and with dimensions similar to those of the liquid sodium setup. Water flow sensing was performed before and after liquid sodium test. The responses in both cases are similar and agree with COMSOL computer simulations. Because long-term (multi-year) experimental tests of transducer resilience to harsh environment are not practical, we have developed a probabilistic model of creep to estimate transducer resilience to the harsh environment. The probabilistic model considers diffusion creep under the condition of high temperature and low stress, where the stress and temperature are allowed to be random variables with Gaussian distributions. Using the probabilistic model, we estimate inelastic membrane deflections due to creep for several temperature ranges. We conclude that for temperatures less than 650°C, creep has negligible long-term effect on the transducer performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

DOE OSTI2017

Integration and assessment of component health prognostics in supervisory control systems - 291

Enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in advanced reactor concepts use predictive estimates of component failure to update, in real time, predictive safety and economic risk metrics. These metrics have been shown to be capable of use in optimizing maintenance scheduling and managing plant maintenance costs. Integrating this information with plant supervisory control systems increases the potential for making control decisions that utilize realtime information on component conditions. Such decision making would limit the possibility of plant operations that increase the likelihood of degrading the functionality of one or more components while maintaining the overall functionality of the plant. ERM uses sensor data for providing real-time information about equipment condition for deriving risk monitors. This information is used to estimate the remaining useful life and probability of failure of these components. By combining this information with plant probabilistic risk assessment models, predictive estimates of risk posed by continued plant operation in the presence of detected degradation may be estimated. In this paper, we describe this methodology in greater detail, and discuss its integration with a prototypic software-based plant supervisory control platform. In order to integrate these two technologies and evaluate the integrated system, software to simulate the sensor data was developed, prognostic models for feedwater valves were developed, and several use cases defined. The full paper will describe these use cases, and the results of the initial evaluation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures: A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making

This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2021

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗

DOE OSTI2022

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2016

TIME-OF-ARRIVAL ESTIMATION FOR SATURATED OPTICAL TRANSIENTS USING CENSORED PROBABILISTIC MODELS.

Abstract not provided.

Kagie, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Convex Optimization of Integrated Power-Gas Energy Flow Model With Applications to Probabilistic Energy Flow

Energy flow calculation is a fundamental problem of the integrated power and gas system (IPGS) operation and planning. However, the nonlinear gas flow model introduces major challenges to the energy flow calculation. In this paper, we propose a tractably convex optimization model to solve the energy flow problem in IPGSs. It is demonstrated that the proposed optimization model has the same optimal solution as the original nonlinear steady energy flow model. Also, piecewise linearization is adopted to tightly linearize the nonlinear objective function of the model, which transforms the formulated convex optimization into a linear program one. Thus, the computation complexity of the proposed energy flow model is significantly reduced as compared with the existing methods. In addition, the proposed model can be extended to probabilistic energy flow estimation. Extensive case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed energy flow model using three IPGSs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Prenatal exposure estimation of BPA and DEHP using integrated external and internal dosimetry: A case study

Prenatal exposure to Endocrine disruptors (EDs), such as Bisphenol A (BPA) and di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), has been associated with obesity and diabetes diseases in childhood, as well as reproductive, behavioral and neurodevelopment problems. The aim of this study was to estimate the prenatal exposure to BPA and DEHP through food consumption for pregnant women living in Tarragona County (Spain). Probabilistic calculations of prenatal exposure were estimated by integrated external and internal dosimetry modelling, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, using a Monte-Carlo simulation. Physical characteristic data from the cohort, along with food intake information from the questionnaires (concentrations of BPA and DEHP in different food categories and the range of the different food ratios), were used to estimate the value of the total dietary intake for the Tarragona pregnancy cohort. The major contributors to the total dietary intake of BPA were canned fruits and vegetables, followed by canned meat and meat products. In turn, milk and dairy products, followed by ready to eat food (including canned dinners), were the most important contributors to the total dietary intake of DEHP. Despite the dietary variations among the participants, the intakes of both chemicals were considerably lower than their respective current tolerable daily intake (TDI) values established by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Internal dosimetry estimates suggest that the plasma concentrations of free BPA and the most important DEHP metabolite, mono (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), in pregnant women were characterized by transient peaks (associated with meals) and short half-lives (< 2 h). In contrast, fetal exposure was characterized by a low and sustained basal BPA and MEHP concentration due to a lack of metabolic activity in the fetus. Therefore, EDs may have a greater effect on developing organs in young children or in the unborn child. - Highlights: • Prenatal exposure to EDs using total diet study for the Tarragona cohort presented. • Contribution of food categories to the total dietary intake of BPA and DEHP investigated. • Application of PBPK models to predict the fetus’ toxicokinetic profiles. • Free BPA and MEHP plasma concentrations in women characterized by transient peaks. • Fetus shows high sustained basal concentration of BPA and DEHP due to low or no metabolic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Defect Distributions on the Reliability of Structural Materials

The purpose of this study is to develop a probabilistic model to estimate the fatigue life of gas turbine disks made of powder superalloy metals. Such metals are known to have high strength and ductility under extremely high temperatures and known to have high fatigue lives. However, despite the high quality controls instituted during metal processing, sufficiently high numbers of ceramic inclusions materialize within the metal matrix creating weak links that lead to reduced fatigue lives. To study the effect of such ceramic inclusions on the fatigue life of gas turbine disks, an experimental program has been initiated at the NASA Glenn Research. In this phase of the study, a statistical analysis of the test results is undertaken which served as the basis of the probabilistic simulation model. The study is a part of the Crack Resistant Disk Materials task within the Ultra Safe Propulsion Project.

Ghosn, Michel J.↗

DOE OSTI2018

K2-231 b: A Sub-Neptune Exoplanet Transiting a Solar Twin in Ruprecht 147

We identify a sub-Neptune exoplanet (R {sub p} = 2.5 ± 0.2 R{sub ⊕}) transiting a solar twin in the Ruprecht 147 star cluster (3 Gyr, 300 pc, [Fe/H] = +0.1 dex). The ∼81 day light curve for EPIC 219800881 (V = 12.71) from K2 Campaign 7 shows six transits with a period of 13.84 days, a depth of ∼0.06%, and a duration of ∼4 hr. Based on our analysis of high-resolution MIKE spectra, broadband optical and NIR photometry, the cluster parallax and interstellar reddening, and isochrone models from PARSEC, Dartmouth, and MIST, we estimate the following properties for the host star: M {sub ⋆} = 1.01 ± 0.03 M{sub ⊙}, R {sub ⋆} = 0.95 ± 0.03 R{sub ⊙}, and T{sub eff} = 5695 ± 50 K. This star appears to be single based on our modeling of the photometry, the low radial velocity (RV) variability measured over nearly 10 yr, and Keck/NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging and aperture-masking interferometry. Applying a probabilistic mass–radius relation, we estimate that the mass of this planet is M {sub p} = 7 + 5 – 3 M{sub ⊕}, which would cause an RV semi-amplitude of K = 2 ± 1 m s{sup −1} that may be measurable with existing precise RV facilities. After statistically validating this planet with BLENDER, we now designate it K2-231b, making it the second substellar object to be discovered in Ruprecht 147 and the first planet; it joins the small but growing ranks of 22 other planets and three candidates found in open clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗