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At least 271 records · Page 15

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1992

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

Currently, two main approaches exist for improving the human-machine interface component of a system in order to improve overall system performance - display enhancement and intelligent decision making. Discussed here are the characteristic issues of these two decision-making strategies. Differences in expert and novice decision making are described in order to help determine whether a particular strategy may be better for a particular type of user. Research is outlined to compare and contrast the two technologies, as well as to examine the interaction effects introduced by the different skill levels and the different methods for training operators.

Kirlik, Alex↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evolutionary Concepts for Decentralized Air Traffic Flow Management

Alternative concepts for modifying the policies and procedures under which the air traffic flow management system operates are described, and an approach to the evaluation of those concepts is discussed. Here, air traffic flow management includes all activities related to the management of the flow of aircraft and related system resources from 'block to block.' The alternative concepts represent stages in the evolution from the current system, in which air traffic management decision making is largely centralized within the FAA, to a more decentralized approach wherein the airlines and other airspace users collaborate in air traffic management decision making with the FAA. The emphasis in the discussion is on a viable medium-term partially decentralized scenario representing a phase of this evolution that is consistent with the decision-making approaches embodied in proposed Free Flight concepts for air traffic management. System-level metrics for analyzing and evaluating the various alternatives are defined, and a simulation testbed developed to generate values for those metrics is described. The fundamental issue of modeling airline behavior in decentralized environments is also raised, and an example of such a model, which deals with the preservation of flight bank integrity in hub airports, is presented.

Adams, Milton↗

NASA NTRS1999

Spares Management : Optimizing Hardware Usage for the Space Shuttle Main Engine

The complexity of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), combined with mounting requirements to reduce operations costs have increased demands for accurate tracking, maintenance, and projections of SSME assets. The SSME Logistics Team is developing an integrated asset management process. This PC-based tool provides a user-friendly asset database for daily decision making, plus a variable-input hardware usage simulation with complex logic yielding output that addresses essential asset management issues. Cycle times on critical tasks are significantly reduced. Associated costs have decreased as asset data quality and decision-making capability has increased.

Gulbrandsen, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A critical review of CMAT/PAT is undertaken. Directions for the improvement of this tool are provided. STDO and KSC intend to follow up on many, if not all, of the recommendations provided.

Joglekar, Prafulla↗

NASA NTRS1997

NASA Advanced Transportation Technologies Program

The primary objective of the NASA Advanced Air Transportation Technologies (AATT) program is to fully explore the possibilities of the "Free Flight" concept. AVIATION products will enable substantial increases in the effectiveness of national and global air transportation systems. These increases will be achieved by developing and testing automation aids that can assist in the decision-making process among pilots, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers. The AATT program is responsible for defining, exploring, and developing advanced air traffic system concepts to a level suitable for preproduction prototype assessment by the FAA which, if successful, will result in full-scale deployment. These decision support tools will allow all airspace users to choose the best flight path for their own purpose within the constraints of safety and the needs of other users. To do this, several goals must be met: allow users to minimize operating costs by making trade-offs between time and routing; improve the effectiveness of high-density operations on the ground and in the air, enable safe operation in a smooth and efficient manner across boundaries of free-flight and capacity-constrained flight regions; provide system improvements that are easily deployable anywhere in the world; and improve the ability to simulate advanced capabilities in the airspace system.

Dudley, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Geographic Freedom

Kennedy Space Center's need to conduct real-time monitoring of Space Shuttle operations led to the development of Netlander Inc.'s JTouch system. The technology behind JTouch allows engineers to view Space Shuttle and ground support data from any desktop computer using a web browser. Companies can make use of JTouch to better monitor locations scattered around the world, increasing decision-making speed and reducing travel costs for site visits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2004

Decision-Making in Flight with Different Convective Weather Information Sources: Preliminary Results

This paper reports preliminary and partial results of a flight experiment to address how General Aviation (GA) pilots use weather cues to make flight decisions. This research presents pilots with weather cue conditions typically available to GA pilots in visual meteorological conditions (VMC) and instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) today, as well as in IMC with a Graphical Weather Information System (GWIS). These preliminary data indicate that both VMC and GWIS-augmented IMC conditions result in better confidence, information sufficiency and perceived performance than the current IMC condition. For all these measures, the VMC and GWIS-augmented conditions seemed to provide similar pilot support. These preliminary results are interpreted for their implications on GWIS display design, training, and operational use guidelines. Final experimental results will compare these subjective data with objective data of situation awareness and decision quality.

Latorella, Kara A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS)

NASA is considering the development of a Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS), to examine and evaluate performance of the National Airspace System (NAS) as the aviation community moves toward free flight. CHATS will be specifically oriented toward simulating strategic decision-making by airspace users and by the service provider s traffic management personnel, within the context of different airspace and rules assumptions. It will use human teams to represent these interests and make decisions, and will rely on computer modeling and simulation to calculate the impacts of these decisions. The simulation objectives will be to examine: 1. evolution of airspace users and the service provider s strategies, through adaptation to new operational environments; 2. air carriers competitive and cooperative behavior; 3. expected benefits to airspace users and the service provider as compared to the current NAS; 4. operational limitations of free flight concepts due to congestion and safety concerns. This paper describes an operational concept for CHATS, and presents a high-level functional design which would utilize a combination of existing and new models and simulation capabilities.

Phillips, Charles T.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Trusted Autonomy for Space Flight Systems

NASA has long supported research on intelligent control technologies that could allow space systems to operate autonomously or with reduced human supervision. Proposed uses range from automated control of entire space vehicles to mobile robots that assist or substitute for astronauts to vehicle systems such as life support that interact with other systems in complex ways and require constant vigilance. The potential for pervasive use of such technology to extend the kinds of missions that are possible in practice is well understood, as is its potential to radically improve the robustness, safety and productivity of diverse mission systems. Despite its acknowledged potential, intelligent control capabilities are rarely used in space flight systems. Perhaps the most famous example of intelligent control on a spacecraft is the Remote Agent system flown on the Deep Space One mission (1998 - 2001). However, even in this case, the role of the intelligent control element, originally intended to have full control of the spacecraft for the duration of the mission, was reduced to having partial control for a two-week non-critical period. Even this level of mission acceptance was exceptional. In most cases, mission managers consider intelligent control systems an unacceptable source of risk and elect not to fly them. Overall, the technology is not trusted. From the standpoint of those who need to decide whether to incorporate this technology, lack of trust is easy to understand. Intelligent high-level control means allowing software io make decisions that are too complex for conventional software. The decision-making behavior of these systems is often hard to understand and inspect, and thus hard to evaluate. Moreover, such software is typically designed and implemented either as a research product or custom-built for a particular mission. In the former case, software quality is unlikely to be adequate for flight qualification and the functionality provided by the system is likely driven largely by the need to publish innovative work. In the latter case, the mission represents the first use of the system, a risky proposition even for relatively simple software.

Freed, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

Goodman, S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Method for Aircraft Concept Selection Using Multicriteria Interactive Genetic Algorithms

The problem of aircraft concept selection has become increasingly difficult in recent years as a result of a change from performance as the primary evaluation criteria of aircraft concepts to the current situation in which environmental effects, economics, and aesthetics must also be evaluated and considered in the earliest stages of the decision-making process. This has prompted a shift from design using historical data regression techniques for metric prediction to the use of physics-based analysis tools that are capable of analyzing designs outside of the historical database. The use of optimization methods with these physics-based tools, however, has proven difficult because of the tendency of optimizers to exploit assumptions present in the models and drive the design towards a solution which, while promising to the computer, may be infeasible due to factors not considered by the computer codes. In addition to this difficulty, the number of discrete options available at this stage may be unmanageable due to the combinatorial nature of the concept selection problem, leading the analyst to arbitrarily choose a sub-optimum baseline vehicle. These concept decisions such as the type of control surface scheme to use, though extremely important, are frequently made without sufficient understanding of their impact on the important system metrics because of a lack of computational resources or analysis tools. This paper describes a hybrid subjective/quantitative optimization method and its application to the concept selection of a Small Supersonic Transport. The method uses Genetic Algorithms to operate on a population of designs and promote improvement by varying more than sixty parameters governing the vehicle geometry, mission, and requirements. In addition to using computer codes for evaluation of quantitative criteria such as gross weight, expert input is also considered to account for criteria such as aeroelasticity or manufacturability which may be impossible or too computationally expensive to consider explicitly in the analysis. Results indicate that concepts resulting from the use of this method represent designs which are promising to both the computer and the analyst, and that a mapping between concepts and requirements that would not otherwise be apparent is revealed.

Buonanno, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2005

Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Lee, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2006

Integrated Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation, and Accreditation Strategy for Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations and provide critical information and data supporting key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision-making. Their usage requires the implementation of a rigorous approach to verification, validation and accreditation (W&A) and establishment of formal process and practices associated with their application. To ensure decision-making is suitably supported by information (data, models, test beds) from activities (studies, exercises) from M&S applications that are understood and characterized, ESMD is establishing formal, tailored W&A processes and practices. In addition, to ensure the successful application of M&S within ESMD, a formal process for the certification of analysts that use M&S is being implemented. This presentation will highlight NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management approach for M&S W&A to ensure decision-makers receive timely information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality.

Hale, Joseph P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Tool to Incorporate Non-Energy Impacts in Energy Efficiency Investment Decision Making for Firms

Energy efficiency is a key demand-side strategy for sustainability, recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. The increased focus on decarbonization and the requirement for efficiency to enable electrification, another decarbonization pillar, due to the spark spread between natural gas and electricity prices, make energy efficiency increasingly relevant. Still, industries face challenges in adopting energy efficiency measures. Researchers have long found a gap in adoption of even those measures with a profitable net present value, attributed to lack of strategic value among other barriers (see for rigorous exploration and taxonomy). One solution to facilitate energy efficiency projects is the inclusion of non-energy impacts, as this has been shown to double potential deployment of such projects at system level. Energy efficiency can provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, from decreased pollution to enhanced productivity. The inclusion of these benefits in decision making assessments faces hurdles due to inconsistency of ancillary benefits across projects, difficulties in quantifying impacts and the need for additional measurement to quantify them. The decision-making tools to support this have been designed primarily for the European context. We begin with a stakeholder engagement process to better characterize the U.S. decision making process surrounding adoption of energy efficiency investments. Characterization of non-energy impacts has developed substantially over recent decades. Cagno et al. provided a framework for studying the applicability of these impacts to energy efficiency projects, listing 120 key performance indicators focused mainly on reductions of costs/harms. Other researchers have included impacts on the strategic and revenue side that can be merged into this framework as well. We seek a tractable set of impacts that can be included in a decision-making tool in the US, and as such are well suited to US industry, management and decision making processes. We also seek to understand how to best quantify or characterize these impacts. This work will demonstrate the results of a survey conducted among US manufacturing industry decision makers to assess the decision making landscape of stakeholders as well as the most relevant performance indicators for energy efficiency projects.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising solution for next-generation nuclear energy, offering advantages in safety, fuel efficiency, and waste minimization. However, their liquid-fueled design presents unique challenges for spent fuel management, making post-shutdown waste characterization essential for developing effective strategies. Despite this need, there is a notable absence of visualization platforms specifically tailored to the unique characteristics and analytical requirements of MSR waste management. Existing tools in the nuclear industry are primarily designed for reactor operations or generic data exploration and lack both integration with MSR-specific multiphysics frameworks and the ability to simultaneously visualize time-dependent thermal fields, chemical composition evolution, and radiation distribution patterns. To address these limitations, this paper presents an immersive virtual reality (VR) visualization platform that processes and displays high-fidelity multiphysics simulation output from the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework in real-time, using Unity. The platform visualizes MSR waste characteristics such as nuclide decay, salt cooling, and corrosion by using Exodus II output data and running on a VR headset. It includes a user-friendly interface with features such as visibility toggling, cross-sectional slicing, and time-series animation for exploring simulation data. These capabilities support experimental design, stakeholder engagement, and public communication by making complex reactor behavior more accessible and understandable. By enhancing spatial reasoning and reducing cognitive load, this immersive environment fosters more effective communication and decision-making in MSR waste management.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗