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DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Cloud-based Application to Enable a Scalable Risk-informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy at Nuclear Power Plants

Light-water reactor operations and maintenance (O&M) costs are prohibitively high, thus contributing to the premature decommissioning of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is partly due to how the equipment is monitored. In recent years, cloud computing has emerged as a dominant technology by virtue of its low costs, computing and storage adaptability, and ability to host applications over numerous types of virtual infrastructures. Cloud computing can be a cost-effective alternative to onsite storage and diagnostics. This paper conducts a techno-economic assessment of a provisional cloud deployment architecture for a NPP predictive monitoring (PdM) system. The cloud-based monitoring system would enable maintenance and diagnostics (M&D) analysts and other authorized plant users to remotely monitor equipment functionality so as to enable PdM practices and early detection of faults. The Microsoft Azure cloud platform is included in the proposed cloud architecture to provide data processing and storage, sensor device networking, and database management; however, this analysis could be extended to other cloud computing service providers as well. For the techno-economic assessment, technical feasibility is measured in terms of network performance metrics such as response time, latency, and throughput, whereas economic feasibility is measured in terms of operational costs and capital expenditures. Finally, this report covers certain regulatory and security aspects that may concern licensees looking to implement cloud computing. The report focuses on the integration of sensor database storage, the application of cloud resources to PdM, and the identification of technological and economic hurdles associated with moving to a cloud-computing-based architecture.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

InSPIRE 2.0 (Final Technical Report)

Co-locating solar projects and agriculture can provide mutual benefits to local farmers (e.g., dual revenue streams, increased yields from pollinator services, irrigation reductions) and to the solar projects (e.g., reduced timeline/costs for installation and O&M, expanded market, increased PV efficiency from a cooler, vegetated microclimate). While prior work sought to demonstrate the feasibility of agricultural co-location (or "agrivoltaic") opportunities, there is a fundamental gap in data available to developers, landowners, and state agencies that prevents widespread deployment of these mutually beneficial practices. This project addressed this gap by (1) establishing a stakeholder research working group composed of multi-sector industry leaders and academics to provide guidance and assist with outreach; (2) undertaking targeted field-based research projects evaluating solar and agriculture co-location tradeoffs; (3) conducting analysis and modeling studies that complement the field-based research; and (4) developing a data portal to consolidate all data on this topic in one location.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process

Due to the urgency around climate change and associated goals for clean energy transition, and Battelle Energy Alliance's (BEA) and Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) role as the nation's nuclear energy laboratory, numerous stakeholders have asked for BEA’s thoughts and recommendations to reduce the time and costs associated with licensing new reactors at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). As an M&O contractor for an FFRDC, BEA is a long-term partner with the Government in seeking to achieve clean energy goals, yet has a level of independence needed to appropriately evaluate this topic. The views herein are informed by extensive BEA experience supporting nuclear energy endeavors including ongoing discussions with current and former regulators, applicants, and licensees. With this background in mind, the United States benefits from having an agency such as the NRC, which is viewed internationally as the leader in nuclear safety licensing and regulation. Nonetheless, while acknowledging the important nuclear safety role satisfied by the NRC, it is apparent that one of the most significant time and resource intensive activities for new reactor developers is the NRC licensing process. The time and cost to obtain NRC licenses add significant financial stress for new reactor projects and may result in abandonment of projects or failure to even begin new projects. The challenge is particularly acute for advanced reactors which may raise unique or new regulatory questions and may be smaller in size, resulting in a much higher proportional impact from regulatory and cost challenges. This situation presents a particularly troublesome risk for the nation given the urgency in which utilities are working to transition to clean, non-carbon-emitting energy sources like nuclear energy. Reforms to the NRC licensing process have the potential to greatly increase certainty and support the successful progress of new reactors. The NRC can retain its world-class nuclear safety reputation while becoming a world leader for regulatory efficiency and a critical enabler to the clean energy transition. This report describes potential NRC reforms, focusing on those with a statutory connection. Recognizing the potential tradeoffs with any proposed changes, the report attempts to highlight those considerations in the analysis of the reforms. The recommendations are presented as a set of options for consideration. Unless noted, they are independent options, offering stakeholders the option to select a subset for further consideration. Although difficult to calculate precise time improvements for some of the changes, the reforms have the potential for substantial improvements, perhaps even by a factor of two.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conceptual Machine Learning Strategy for Maintenance of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.2 Define maintenance scenarios and benchmarks. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Sampling Plan for Pantex Plant

Leidos prepared this Preliminary Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Sampling Plan for the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) Pantex Plant Consolidated Nuclear Security, LLC (CNS) Pantex, the operations and maintenance (O&M) contractor of Pantex Plant commissioned the Preliminary PFAS Sampling Plan to evaluate the potential risks at the facility and collect preliminary groundwater data at areas within the Plant with the highest potential for PFAS. This plan presents findings from research conducted to assess past and current use of materials containing PFAS and identify areas where these materials were potentially stored, handled, used, or released at Pantex Plant. Pantex Plant is located in Carson County in the Texas Panhandle (Figure 1-1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Report in Response to ARPA-E Contract Award Number DE-AR0001157

Autonomous operations and maintenance (O&M) by robots has been identified as a key technology to facilitate both the safe operation, and reduced operational costs associated with future nuclear reactors. Radiation and thermal environments, particularly associated with molten salt reactor designs, excludes the use of human proximity and so there is a need to train robots for tasks that have not yet been fully identified, or for accidents that may occur in the future. This program sought to develop a generic methodology that could be applied to train ‘any’ robot, to perform ‘any’ task, through the use of machine learning (ML) training performed in a virtual reality (VR) environment that simulates the physically perceived task(s). The VR environment allows us to construct ‘any’ future task and the ML approach, which included reinforcement learning (RL), allowed us to generate extensive data sets that can be used to establish control algorithms to thereby control the physical robot in the physical environment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hidden in Plain Sight: How Interior Furnishings Management Can Help Los Alamos National Laboratory Meet the United States Department of Energy's Sustainability Goals [Capstone Project]

In the last three years, LANL has purchased over $50 million in new interior products with a focus on sustainable building and high-quality interior furnishings, carpet, and paint. Purchasing interior products that focus on sustainable manufacturing, however, is only the beginning of properly operating and maintaining an interior space over its useable life. Sustainable commercial furniture, if well maintained and warrantied, can last well beyond the accounting depreciation of the asset, ultimately saving taxpayer dollars. Given DOE’s recently announced built environment sustainability goals, now is the time to look at interior products as an important part of the overall sustainability plan for LANL’s green building initiatives. The scope of this thesis provides an environmentally sustainable O&M process for the procurement, use, and proper decommissioning of interior products. The thesis also provides environmental and financial data to assist with LANL’s overall DOE Matrix milestones, currently due in 2030.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Durability of Piston Seals in Hydraulic Power Take-off Systems in Wave Energy Converters

Hydraulic cylinder seals are a critical component of hydraulic power take-off (PTO) systems in wave energy converters (WECs). Primary hydraulic piston seal wear is a major concern for the longevity of hydraulic PTOs, especially in the context of the effort and expense associated with seal replacement. Piston seals, made from polymeric elastomers, are used to contain and isolate high pressure fluids within PTO systems. A specific challenge for WEC designers is knowing, with confidence, the relative expected lifetimes of commercially available seals and seal materials for the unique long travel and continuous use case of WEC hydraulic systems. This information is critical to accurately determine operating expense (OPEX) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). If failures of seals occur earlier than their designed lifetime, the estimated operations, and maintenance (O&M) and LCOE costs may double based on estimation. Unfortunately, information from seal manufacturers on longevity in these applications is not generally available and quantitative performance comparison between different manufacturers is not available, creating significant uncertainty on use of hydraulic PTO system in wave power generation. In this project, PNNL, with advice from different WEC device and seal manufacturers, has created a framework to address the industry need for available, dependable and comparative data for seals and seals materials for WEC hydraulic applications including piston seals, glide rings, and shaft seals. Commonly used and candidate seal materials were identified and available information on the materials such as mechanical and fatigue performance, chemical (fluid) compatibility, and cost has been compiled. Hardware and strategy for bench scale measurement of key materials and seal performance and pathway for publicly available library of hydraulic seal materials, properties, suppliers, and options have also been identified for future implementation. The results of this project were presented at WPTO Seedling Symposium 2023 and OCEANS 2023. The results of the literature review including identified polymer seals and ideal operating conditions were summaried and compiled to a database WEC-SealsDB hosted locally at PNNL.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

International Applications for Floating Solar PV (FPV) [Slides]

Floating solar is a comparatively new concept. Floating solar is about to form a third pillar in the market for solar energy next to ground mounted and rooftop solar. The Asia-Pacific region already dominates the fast-emerging market in floating solar PV (FPV), and it looks set to build on that position as more nations get on board and costs fall. Asia-Pacific is set to increase its market share from 74% in 2020 to 87% in 2026 in terms of global installed FPV capacity. However, since floating solar systems are still a new application, there is a lack of information on its performance, cost, technical complexity, and operations and maintenance (O&M). This seminar series seeks to partially remedy that through presenting case studies that highlight the benefits, challenges, and applications of FPV in South and Southeast Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA)/Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) for Marine Energy (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The objective of the Advanced Laboratory and Field Arrays (ALFA) project was to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of Marine and Hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by leveraging research, development, and testing capabilities at Oregon State University, University of Washington, and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. ALFA is a project within the Pacific Marine Energy Center (PMEC; formerly NNMREC), a multi-institution entity with a diverse funding base that focuses on research and development for marine renewables. The ALFA project aimed to accelerate the development of next-generation arrays of wave energy conversion (WEC) and tidal energy conversion (TEC) devices through a suite of field-focused R&D activities spanning a broad range of strategic opportunity areas identified in the Funding Opportunity Announcement: • Device and/or array operation and maintenance (O&M) logistics development; • High-fidelity resource characterization and/or modeling technique development and validation; • Array-specific component technology development (e.g. moorings and foundations, transmission, and other offshore grid components); • Array performance testing and evaluation; and • Novel cost-effective environmental monitoring techniques and instrumentation testing and evaluation. The objective of the Lab Collaboration Project (LCP) was to accelerate the development of next-generation marine energy conversion systems. The LCP aimed to achieve these project objectives in collaboration with the national laboratories by: • Developing concept generation and assessment tools; • Improving access to existing testing resources; • Validating collision risk models between fish and turbines; and • Advancing analysis and simulation capabilities for wave-WEC interactions and PTO analysis in nonlinear ocean waves. The ALFA portion of the project was comprised of six overarching technical tasks: • Task 1: Debris Modeling, Detection and Mitigation; • Task 2: Autonomous Monitoring & Intervention; • Task 3: Resource Characterization for Extreme Conditions; • Task 4: Robust Models for Design of Offshore Anchoring and Mooring Systems; • Task 5: Performance Enhancement for Marine Energy Converter (MEC) Arrays; and • Task 6: Evaluating Sampling Techniques for MHK Biological Monitoring. The LCP was divided into four overarching technical tasks: • Task 7: Project Management and Reporting • Task 8: Novel Design and Assessment Methodologies for Wave Energy Converter Design (Wave- SPARC) • Task 9: Testing Access for Commercial Marine Renewable Energy Technology Developers • Task 10: Quantifying Collision Risk for Fish and Turbines • Task 11: Nonlinear Ocean Waves and PTO Control Strategy Each ALFA/LCP task listed above functioned as a separate and discreet project. A final Technical Report was written for each individual task and these reports were uploaded to OSTI, after receiving DOE approval. The following document is a compilation of each of these final, approved reports arranged as individual chapters.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

MW-Class SOFC Pilot System Development

The overall objective of this project is to develop a low-cost, efficient, and reliable MWe-class Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) power system towards commercial deployment in natural-gas fueled distributed generation applications. This report details the successful completion of all project objectives. The main goals of the project were to develop the conceptual design of a MWe-class SOFC power system, and to complete a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to determine system costs at low-volume production levels of >100MW per year. The combination of the BoP equipment cost and SOFC stack module factory cost provided the net fabrication cost of the selected 1MW SOFC system configuration. The results of the study showed that the cost target of less than $6000/kW is achievable for a FOAK 1MW SOFC system, exclusive of the first-time engineering cost. Also, the project included an exploratory analysis of the factory cost of next generation stack technology based on the Compact Solid-oxide Architecture (CSA) design at a high annual manufacturing rate of one-GW produced in a giga-factory. The BoP capital cost for one giga-watt power production was estimated using learning-curve analysis based on the historical manufacturing cost data related to similar high temperature Molten Carbonate fuel cell systems built by FuelCell Energy (FCE). The giga-factory manufactured SOFC cost estimate combined with the BoP cost at high production rates led to the estimation of entire system capital cost. Ultimately, a Cost of Electricity (COE) analysis was performed including natural gas fuel prices, installation and O&M costs, and stack replacement cost. The results of the techno-economic analysis were summarized by parametric estimation of COE for 1MW SOFC NOAK (Nth-of-a-Kind) system with natural gas prices as a variable parameter.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examination of Factors Affecting the Cost and Performance of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Equipped with Carbon Dioxide Capture

The purpose of this Technical Note is to report the findings of an examination of the effect of plausible deviations in select study assumptions on the reported cost and performance estimates for a power plant case drawn from NETL’s “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity” (known as the Fossil Energy Baseline). An F-Class NGCC power plant equipped with state-of-the-art, solvent-based, post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO2) capture (95 percent carbon capture rate)—designated as Case B31B.95—was selected for this work. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the effects of parameter variations within and across selected categories—ambient conditions, construction cost, natural gas (NG) price, capacity factor, and finance—on the plant performance and capital and operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and the subsequent impact on common figures of merit.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Review and Integrated Approach to Modeling of Aging Utility Scale PV Systems

The growing deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the importance of techno-economic modeling operational photovoltaic (PV) systems for predicting energy yield, optimizing asset management, and informing financial decisions. Through a systematic review of literature and current industry practices, we review the different common modeling practices of a system's configuration and age, performance and degradation, operation and maintenance (O&M), while also focusing on specific considerations for repowering, revamping, and decommissioning. Building on the synthesis, we develop a structured framework for techno-economic modeling of operating PV systems that integrate performance and degradation analysis, a decommissioning and repowering cost model that estimates the system's end-of-life costs to reduce uncertainty quantifications and improve consistency across the sector. This research contributes to improved modeling methodologies and potentially to reduced financial performance requirements by providing practitioners with input resources and practical approaches to estimate performance, degradation, and costs associated with continued operation, revamping, repowering, or decommissioning decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilient Solar PV Structures a.k.a. the "Nuts and Bolts" of PV Resilience

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems can and has survived many extreme weather events. On occasion, however, solar PV systems have been damaged. This damage is related more to the features of individual PV systems rather than the magnitude of the weather events. Much of this damage can be avoided with relatively simple, cost-effective measures that include design, installation, inspection, and O&M best practices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

National Solar Thermal Test Facility: Operations & Maintenance Report

The NSTTF O&M Project continues the operation and maintenance activities of the existing critical capabilities and infrastructure at the NSTTF. This project is to support and assure the success of Solar Heat for Industrial Process in the United States and the larger global community by ensuring the NSTTF is a safe and operational facility. The primary goal of this project will be to maintain the solar tower and heliostat field while also allowing NSTTF staff to improve processes for operations and maintenance. This includes expanding our preventative maintenance program, inventory systems, and our data sharing capabilities. Additionally, this will support an outreach program with regular seminars, sharing of data, and the release of open-source software to support heliostat metrology

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗