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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding amyloids to prevent biofilm formation in space

There is a pressing need to search for novel approaches to combat biofilm formation, both in space and in medical applications. Many proteins have the ability to form ordered aggregates called amyloids. Amyloids are known to be an important part of biofilms. The use of anti-amyloid drugs is a novel venue for the development of antimicrobial agents. The ultrastructure of the amyloid aggregate shows a high packing of proteins, the second-order structure of which is dominated by β-sheets. The ability to form an amyloid aggregate is especially typical for proteins containing domains (protein fragments) with sufficient lability to arrange themselves in a tight β-sheet structure. Bioinformatics tools allow the prediction of such behavior of proteins in genomic data. We use GeneLab data of microbial populations identified aboard the International Space Station and other spacecraft to look for bacterial species that utilize amyloid aggregation in biofilm formation. We use a combined bioinformatic approach with a relatively high throughput molecular biology assay and biophysical assays to evaluate the anti-amyloid anti-biofilm approach. The significance of the research extends from understanding basic microbial community responses to spaceflight, to biofouling of the built environments in space as well as the long-term health of astronauts. Bioinformatics shows that onboard the ISS, bacterial species produce far more amyloid and prion proteins than are currently verified, hence their role in bacterial ecosystems is largely unknown. As we propose there is a link between amyloid formation in space and biofilm production, this research should lead to new paths for biofilm remediation in space.

Tomasz Zajkowski↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-resolution leaf area index maps generated from unoccupied aerial system, Teller Mile 27, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Leaf area index (LAI), a measure of the amount of one-side leaf area per ground unit, is an important indicator of plant carbon, energy, and water cycle. In the heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, it has been challenging to accurately measure LAI across species and space needed for Earth system model validation. Here, we use multispectral unoccupied aerial systems (UASs) to scale up and map leaf area index (LAI) , in a low-Arctic tundra landscape on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We linked previous published LAI measurements with high-resolution, UAS-collected multispectral data collected over the region of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Maker 27 site in 2022 to develop random forest (RF) machine learning models to predict and map LAI. 100 RF models were developed to account for uncertainties in ground LAI plot measurements and process scaling. This dataset includes a raster (*.tif) map of the mean LAI value of the 100 RF models, a raster (*.tif) map of the standard deviation of the RF-modeled LAI data, and a user guide (*.pdf).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Atmospheres of Directly Imaged Planets: Where Has All the Methane Gone?

Methane and ammonia both first appear at lower effective temperatures in brown dwarf atmospheres than equilibrium chemistry models would suggest. This has traditionally been understood as a consequence of vertical mixing timescales being shorter than chemical equilibration timescales in brown dwarf photospheres. Indeed the eddy diffusivity, a variable accounting for the vigor of vertical mixing, has become a standard part of the description of brown dwarf atmosphere models, along with Teff and log g. While some models have suggested that methane is less favored at lower gravity, the almost complete absence of methane in the atmospheres of directly imaged planets, such as those orbiting HR 8799, even at effective temperatures where methane is readily apparent in brown dwarf spectra, has been puzzling. To better understand the paucity of methane in low gravity atmospheres we have revisited the problem of methane chemistry and mixing. We employed a 1-D atmospheric chemistry code augmented with an updated and complete network of the chemical reactions that link CO to CH4. We find the methane abundance at altitudes at or above the effective photosphere is a strong function of surface gravity because higher g shifts the p-T structure to higher pressures (i.e., a given optical depth is proportional to p/g, a relation mitigated somewhat by pressure broadening). Thus quenching in more massive brown dwarfs occurs at a lower temperature and higher pressure, both favoring CH4. We predict that in the lowest mass young giant planets, methane will appear very late, at effective temperatures as low as 600 K rather than the 1200 K seen among field brown dwarfs. This methane deficiency has important implications for the interpretation of spectra as well as methane-based planetary companion searches, such as the NICI survey. The GPI and SPHERE surveys will test these ideas and probe atmospheric chemistry and composition in an entire new range of parameter space. A caveat is that these calculations presume that the C to O ratio is comfortably less than one; the behavior is quite different if C and O are equally abundant, and of course CH4 is always present if C exceeds O.

young giant planets↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast Machine Learning Lidar Surrogate Simulator: Pristine Clear Sky

The simulations of lidar signals and retrievals rely on a range of optic-physical models, such as radiative transfer models, particle scattering and absorption models, along with the output data from atmospheric physical models. Integrating these different models to represent signals of a lidar system is computationally expensive, and performing backward retrievals can be complex and ambiguous. However, with the advantages of Machine Learning, there is a new potential for building effective lidar signal database linked to corresponding atmospheric profiles. For this project, we are developing a fast pre-trained neural network as the lidar surrogate simulator using simulated data for a CALIPSO-like lidar (355 nm, 532nm, and 1064nm), and a CO2 differential absorption lidar (DIAL) near 1571nm. Specifically, we utilize a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to map the relationships between atmospheric profiles (pressure, temperature, air density and CO2 mixing ratio) and lidar signals. This approach allows us to build machine learning based simulators that can reconstruct lidar signals at specific bands from MERRA reanalysis data, and perform retrievals of atmospheric profiles using lidar signals at various wavelengths. As a first step, the results show the potential of this method to establish a foundational model for sensor signals. This model offers the promise of enabling both accurate predictions and rapid retrievals, providing a more efficient approach to signal processing and analysis.

Shan Zeng↗
DOE OSTI2022

VWC-BERT: Scaling Vulnerability–Weakness–Exploit Mapping on Modern AI Accelerators

Defending cybersystems needs accurate mapping of software and hardware vulnerabilities to generalized descriptions of weaknesses, and weaknesses to exploits. These mappings enable cyber defenders to build plans for effective defense and assessment of potential risks to a cybersystem. With close to 170k vulnerabilities, manual mapping is not a feasible option. However, automated mapping is challenging due to limited training data, computational intractability, and limitations in computational natural language processing. Tools based on breakthroughs in Transformer-based language models have been demonstrated to classify vulnerabilities with high accuracy. We make three key contributions in this paper: (1) We present a new framework, \VWCBERT, that augments the Transformer-based hierarchical multi-class classification framework of Das et al. (\textsc{V2W-BERT}) with the ability to map weaknesses to exploits. (2) We implement \VWCBERT~ on modern AI accelerator platforms using two data parallel techniques for the pre-training phase and demonstrate nearly linear speedups across NVIDIA and Graphcore accelerator platforms. We observe nearly linear speedups for up to 16 V100 and 8 A100 GPUs, and about 3.4$\times$ speedup for A100 relative to V100 GPUs. We also observe excellent speedups on Graphcore, with $5.7\times$ speedup on 128 IPUs relative to 16 IPUs. Enabled by scaling, we also demonstrate higher accuracy using a larger language model, RoBERTa-Large. We show up to 87\% accuracy for strict and up to 98\% accuracy for relaxed classification. (3) We develop a novel parallel link manager for the link prediction phase and demonstrate up to 21$\times$ speedup with 16 V100 GPUs relative to one V100 GPU, and thus reducing the runtime from 2.5 hours to 10 minutes. We believe that generalizability and scalability of \VWCBERT~ will benefit both the theoretical development and practical deployment of novel cyberdefense solutions and vulnerability classification.

Das, Siddhartha Shankar↗
NASA NTRS2005

Communications Blackout Predictions for Atmospheric Entry of Mars Science Laboratory

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is expected to be a long-range, long-duration science laboratory rover on the Martian surface. MSL will provide a significant milestone that paves the way for future landed missions to Mars. NASA is studying options to launch MSL as early as 2009. There are three elements to the spacecraft; carrier (cruise stage), entry vehicle, and rover. The rover will have a UHF proximity link as the primary path for EDL communications and may have an X-band direct-to-Earth link as a back-up. Given the importance of collecting critical event telemetry data during atmospheric entry, it is important to understand the ability of a signal link to be maintained, especially during the period near peak convective heating. The received telemetry during entry (or played back later) will allow for the performance of the Entry-Descent-Landing technologies to be assessed. These technologies include guided entry for precision landing, a new sky-crane landing system and powered descent. MSL will undergo an entry profile that may result in a potential communications blackout caused by ionized particles for short periods near peak heating. The vehicle will use UHF and possibly X-band during the entry phase. The purpose of this rep0rt is to quantify or bound the likelihood of any such blackout at UHF frequencies (401 MHz) and X-band frequencies (8.4 GHz). Two entry trajectory scenarios were evaluated: a stressful entry trajectory to quantify an upper-bound for any possible blackout period, and a nominal trajectory to quantify likelihood of blackout for such cases.

communications↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protection and Restoration Solutions to Reliable and Resilient Integration of Grid-connected PV Installations and Distributed Energy Resources: Design, Testbed, Proof of Work and Impact Studies (Final Report)

To gain a better understanding of the complex transients in a utility grid with a large number of solar PV installations coupled by PWM inverters during the protection and restoration period of the power grid, in this project a kW-level experimental system with dominating inverter-based resources and a hardware-in-loop simulation system with transmission and distribution models, as well as several SEL protective relays have been built and used. The major research findings of the project are summarized below in two perspectives: Experimental research: A self-organized ultra-high frequency solitary waveform is discovered and demonstrated in the hardware experimental system. Despite the familiarities, such a solitary waveform is distinct from any harmonics, transient, or resonance waves in that, it is 1) non-dispersive over time and space, 2) not associated with any active source or the linear superposition of sources, 3) half-cycle asymmetric, 4) not responding to filters or change of system characteristic resonance frequency, 5) ubiquitous as it occurs simultaneously everywhere in the system from DC supply, power lines, and the utility grid, and 6) explosive through tripping the protection or damaging susceptible devices or circuits. Analytical study: The nature of such a new waveform and an analytical explanation of its formation are studied based on related physics and non-linear science principles, with the following highlights: 1) such a new waveform follows the solutions to the Non-linear Schrödinger equation, so the classic linear perturbation theory is unable to explain or predict such a unique waveform as confirmed with the research team of RTDS; 2) the critical condition of occurrence of such a waveform is derived, which indicates that the breakings of solitary wave is a system synchronous issue between the utility grid in the 60Hz phasor domain and duty-ratio modulation of DC sources in the inverter switching frequency domain; 3) such a waveform carries energy mass so it could be detrimental; 4) such a waveform is deceiving as it is not readily detectable in the energy propagation direction by the primary protection equipment, while it is detrimental in the perpendicular direction of energy propagation, i.e. voltage direction. Thus, it has more likely challenges to the second primary equipment and devices, particularly at the weakest link and point such as aging insulation and inappropriate setting of susceptible devices. Therefore, such a waveform can be easily ignored in the aftermath investigation. The intellectual merits: The experimental discovery reveals certain unfamiliar transient phenomena that could challenge the integration of large-scale grid-connected solar PV installation during the group ride-through period of solar PV installations, commissioning of large-solar farms, or dramatic change of solar radiation conditions. Particularly, the research findings suggest that the occurrence of the unfamiliar transient phenomena is uniquely associated with the inverter-based solar PV installation, which is less likely to happen for rotary energy systems. The physics and non-linear science-based research work laid down an analytical path to the challenging transient stability problems including those that have been observed currently and future calls. Both experimental and analytical research results explain the limitation of many current research effects including some DoE research undertakings as well as possible solutions. The broader impacts: The research outcome of the project advances the understanding of the possible transient problems for the integration of inverter-based solar PV installation. It also highlights the theoretical and technical barriers for applying the conventional theory and technology to design and implement countermeasures against their adverse impacts of the large-scale solar PV installation and operation on grid reliability and security. More broadly, the research outcomes have shed some light on the open, fundamental challenges in the integration of large-scale solar photovoltaic energy into current and next-generation power grids across the country, and worldwide. The advanced physics and non-linear science-based analysis open up a path to harmonization of the renewables for societal energy needs via building a resilient and sustainable electric power infrastructure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of In-Situ AM Process Monitoring Techniques and Potential for Detecting Process Anomalies and Undesirable Microstructures

The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program is pursuing rapid qualification of new materials for fabrication of nuclear relevant components using advanced manufacturing techniques. Particular interest is placed on code-qualifying stainless steel (SS) 316H processed by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing. A paradigm that incorporates data from in-situ sensing during the printing, ex-situ characterization, and advanced artificial intelligence–based models was established under the Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) program to develop a pedigree for each fabricated component that could be tracked from the feedstock to the component’s release for application. Under the TCR program, the Peregrine software was developed as a tool for incorporating the vast amounts of in-situ and ex-situ characterization data collected; all data stored on a rapidly growing digital platform. The digital platform allows for users to link site-specific process anomalies to the macro- and microstructure. The platform will eventually be able to predict component performance, which will be crucial to qualifying materials and components in risk-averse industries such as those supporting and building nuclear reactors. Current in-situ process monitoring techniques that are already integrated with software like Peregrine are advantageous for identifying process anomalies including powder spatter, component edge swelling, recoating-build interactions, and so on. However, additional data are required to fully predict the resulting microstructures needed for identifying relationships to component performance. The rapid cooling rates observed in LPBF are some of the highest of any bulk manufacturing process, resulting in heterogenous microstructures and typically causing anisotropy in mechanical properties. Moreover, evolved residual thermal stresses are high, which can cause severe defects such as delamination or cracking. Therefore, other in-situ monitoring methods are warranted for exploration to measure and map the thermal history, and potentially the stress state, of each build. This report summarizes different in-situ monitoring strategies proposed for LPBF with a focus on the more developed sensor systems. Novel capabilities for measuring melt pool temperatures are also addressed to better inform modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dust Trails of SP/Tuttle and the Unusual Outbursts of the Ursid Shower

Halley-type comets tend to have a series of dust trails that remain spatially correlated for extended periods of time, each dating from a specific return of the comet. Encounters with 1 - 9 revolution old individual dust trails of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle have led to well recognized Leonid shower maxim, the peak time of which was well predicted by recent models. Now. we used the same model to calculate the position of dust trails of comet Shuttle, a Halley-type comet in an (approximately) 13.6 year orbit passing just outside of Earth's orbit. We discovered that the meteoroids tend to be trapped in the 14:12 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, while the comet librates in a slightly shorter period orbit around the 13:15 resonance. It takes six centuries to change the orbit enough to intersect Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by six years. thus explaining the unusual aphelion occurrences of Ursid outbursts. The resonances also prevent dispersion, so that the dust trail encounters (specifically, from dust trails of AD 1378 - 1405) occur only in one year in each orbit. We predicted enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7:29 and 8:35 UT (universal time) from dust trails dating to the 1405 and 1392 return, respectively. This event was observed from California using video and photographic techniques. At the same time, five Global-MS-Net stations in Finland, Japan and Belgium counted meteors using forward meteor scatter. The outburst peaked at 8:06:07 UT, December 22, at Zenith Hourly Rate (approx.) 90 per hour. The Ursid rates were above half peak intensity during 4.2 hours. This is only the second Halley type comet for which a meteor outburst can be dated to a specific return of the parent comet, and traces their presence back form 9 to at least 45 revolutions of the comet. New orbital elements of Ursid meteoroids are presented. We find that most orbits do scatter around the anticipated positions, confirming the link with comet Shuttle and the epoch of ejection. The 1405 and.1392 dust trails appear to have contributed similar amounts to the activity profile. Some orbits provide a hint of much older debris being present as well. Some of the dispersion in the radiant position may reflect a true variation in inclinations, with two groupings at low and high values, which is not understood at present.

Jenniskens, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbonfluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle,we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global VegetationModels (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduceseasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to bothtotal productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models representphenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in drylandecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in bothmoisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure ofexisting phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) andgross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized modelparameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, wemodified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation ofgrass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance wereassociated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to bettercapture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R2=0.75) and gross primary productivity (R2=0.84), thoughits ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new modelalso resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findingsdemonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecastclimate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model Phenology Parameter optimization E↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Elastic Constants of Refractory Complex Concentrated Alloys Using Machine Learning Approach

Refractory complex concentrated alloys (RCCAs) have drawn increasing attention recently owing to their balanced mechanical properties, including excellent creep resistance, ductility, and oxidation resistance. The mechanical and thermal properties of RCCAs are directly linked with the elastic constants. However, it is time consuming and expensive to obtain the elastic constants of RCCAs with conventional trial-and-error experiments. The elastic constants of RCCAs are predicted using a combination of density functional theory simulation data and machine learning (ML) algorithms in this study. The elastic constants of several RCCAs are predicted using the random forest regressor, gradient boosting regressor (GBR), and XGBoost regression models. Based on performance metrics R-squared, mean average error and root mean square error, the GBR model was found to be most promising in predicting the elastic constant of RCCAs among the three ML models. Additionally, GBR model accuracy was verified using the other four RHEAs dataset which was never seen by the GBR model, and reasonable agreements between ML prediction and available results were found. The present findings show that the GBR model can be used to predict the elastic constant of new RHEAs more accurately without performing any expensive computational and experimental work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coarse grained simulation of convectively driven turbulent mixing, transition, and turbulence decay

Accurate predictions with quantifiable uncertainties are essential to many practical turbulent flow applications exhibiting extreme geometrical complexity and broad ranges of length and time scales. Under-resolved computer simulations are typically unavoidable in such applications, and implicit large-eddy simulation (ILES) often becomes the effective strategy. In this work, we focus on assessing ILES initialized with well-characterized 25 6 3 homogeneous isotropic turbulence datasets generated with direct numerical simulation (DNS). ILES solutions based on the LANL xRAGE code are studied as function of resolution for 6 4 3 , 12 8 3 , 25 6 3 , and 51 2 3 grids. ILES performance of new directionally-unsplit high-order numerical hydrodynamics algorithms in xRAGE is examined in this context. Compared to the initial 25 6 3 DNS, we find longer inertial subranges and higher turbulence Reynolds number (Re) for 25 6 3 and 51 2 3 xRAGE — attributed to having linked DNS (Navier–Stokes based) solutions to nominally inviscid (higher Re) Euler based ILES solutions. For fixed 25 6 3 resolution, we find that significantly larger simulated turbulence Re can be achieved with the higher-order unsplit (vs. split) discretizations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2002

A New Look Into the Treatment of Large Drops in Radiative Transfer

One of the weakest links in conventional cloud radiation models is the way a size distribution of cloud particles is mathematically handled: one averages measured drop concentrations over space, evaluates the extinction and scattering cross sections using the mean drop size distribution function and solves the radiative transfer equation with average characteristics. This technique assumes that all drop sizes are well represented in ary given interval along the direction of photon travel. But the concentration of large drops can be so law that this assumption is significantly violated. This is clearly seen if one examines of how the appearance of drops changes with the scale. In the poster we demonstrate the results of our analysis of FSSP data acquired during FIRE'87 and both FSSP and DC1 data from cloud IOP in Spring 2000. The analysis shows that, in general, the average number of drops observed in an interval along the direction of photon travel is proportional to the interval's length (or scale) powered to a drop scaling exponent. For small droplets the scaling exponent is equal to 1, as predicted by a conventional radiative transfer model. However, for large drops, the scaling exponent can fall distinctly below 1. Since the solution of radiative transfer equation depends on the drop scaling exponent, its deviation from unity can lead to a systematic bias in estimation of cloud radiative properties. We discuss the importance of the scaling exponent for the characteristics of the small-scale drop size variability for large and small droplets. Most of the existing cloud radiation models, however, are insensitive to this parameter.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗
NASA NTRS1998

An Operational Concept for Flying FMS Trajectories in Center and TRACON Airspace

Current Flight Management Systems (FMS) do a good job of constructing and flying an optimal trajectory for a single aircraft. Unfortunately, flight crews are often unable to fly these FMS routes during arrivals at busy airports. The Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) has been designed to aid Center and TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control) controllers in assigning runways, sequencing and vectoring all classes of aircraft. CTAS bases its advisories on trajectory predictions for arriving aircraft using algorithms very similar to those in airborne FMS systems. This paper presents near and far term operational concepts for how a ground ATM (air traffic management) automation system like CTAS could work more effectively with the airborne automation in FMS equipped aircraft. The concepts for a more compatible air-ground system include: 1) a common route databases for both CTAS and FMS; 2) datalink to downlink information on aircraft weight, final approach speed and trajectory intent and to uplink wind information; 3) new FMS functions to allow flight crews to easily update their FMS trajectory to match the trajectory suggested by the ground automation with voice clearances, and 4) in the far term, datalink to downlink user preferred trajectories and to uplink trajectory clearances in the terminal area. The paper analyses some of the human factors issues that may result in allowing aircraft to fly FMS routes during enroute descent and in the terminal area. A series of linked human in the loop flight deck and air traffic control simulations and a field test with the NASA 757 are being conducted at NASA's Ames and Langley Research Centers to address these issues and to evaluate the operational feasibility of these approaches to more efficient flight and increased airport throughput.

Palmer, Everett↗