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Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.
Carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC) composites processed by chemical vapor infiltration are candidate materials for aerospace thermal structures. Carbon fibers can retain properties at very high temperatures, but they are known to have poor oxidation resistance in adverse, high-temperature environments. Nevertheless, the combination of CVI-SiC matrix with higher stiffness and oxidation resistance, the interfacial coating, and additional surface-seal coating provides the necessary protection to the carbon fibers, and makes the material viable for high-temperature space applications operating under harsh environments. Furthermore, C/SiC composites, like other ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), exhibit graceful non-catastrophic failure because of various inherent energy dissipating mechanisms. The material exhibits nonlinearity in deformation even at very low stress levels. This is the result of the severe matrix microcracking present in the as processed composite because of large differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion of the fiber and the matrix. Utilization of these advanced composites in next generation space vehicles will require innovative structural configurations, updated materials, and refined analyses. Structural safety issues for these vehicles are in direct competition with performance and cost. One would have to quantify the uncertainties associated with the design using formal probabilistic methods. Specifically four fundamental aspects on which analyses are based-- (1) loading conditions, (2) material behavior, (3) geometrical configurations, and (4) structural connections between the composite components and baseline structure--are stochastic in nature. A direct way to formally account for uncertainties is to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods where all participating variables are described by appropriate probability density functions. The present work, however, focuses on analyzing the stochastic material behavior of these advanced composites using formal probabilistic analysis methods. Often, some of the desirable property characteristics that allow composites to offer advantages over conventional structural materials (like tailoring of composite properties) and the complexity are in fact responsible for their greater statistical variability and the requirements for more characterization tests. Composite properties are anisotropic as well, having different properties in different directions. This means that characterization of a property such as stiffness--which will vary greatly depending on the orientation of the fiber relative to the direction of the testing--must be repeated for several different directions and loading conditions. The fabrication process for composites also introduces statistical variations in properties and geometry. A composite part is produced in a number of steps, each of which introduces statistical variability. The matrix is usually produced from a combination of raw materials; and the fiber, which has its own set of properties, is often coated or surface treated, introducing yet another source of variability.
A compositional and petrographic characterization of 11 nonmare samples shows five to be pristine, and four probably pristine. Five of the 11 are unique anorthosites that considerably extend the diversity of lunar anorthosites. Alkali anorthosites are rich in incompatible elements. The nature of the correlations between longitude and such parameters as Eu and Sm concentrations, and Sc/Sm, Ti/Sm, and Ca/Na ratios, has been elucidated for the case of the pristine samples because five are fro a western site (Apollo 14). The ratios determined for the ferroan anorthosite 14312c are close to normal, but significantly displaced in the direction of the nonferroan, western pristine rocks. This suggests that the composition-longitude relationships are as old as the late stages of the crystallization of the putative magma ocean.
Results from direct numerical simulations of several homogeneous flows and fully developed turbulent channel flow indicate that the probability distribution function (pdf) of relative helicity density exhibits at most a 20 percent deviation from a flat distribution. Isotropic flows exhibit a slight helical nature but the presence of mean strain in homogeneous turbulence suppresses helical behavior. All the homogeneous turbulent flows studied show no correlation between relative helicity density and the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy. The channel flow simulations indicate that, except for low-dissipation regions near the outer edge of the buffer layer, there is no tendency for the flow to be helical. The strong peaks in the relative helicity density pdf and the association of these peaks with regions of low dissipation found in previous simulations by Pelz et al.(1985) are not observed.
Measurements are presented of a thin film of synthetic diamond at various wavelengths in the extreme ultraviolet. The synthetic diamond combines the transmission properties of carbon with the strength, density, and ruggedness of a natural diamond. The Extreme Ultraviolet Transmission (EUV) of a film of the synthetic diamond has shown the existence of a thin surface layer of silicon, probably in the form of silicon carbide, which is not a contaminant layer.
The nature, origin and evolution of the polar layered terrains are a major mystery of Martian climate. Almost every aspect of these enigmatic terrains surrounding, and probably underlying, the polar residual ice caps is in contention. Are the polar laminae forming today? Are they inactive or even eroding, being mere relics of the past? Are the north and south polar layered terrains fundamentally different in composition, age or process? Are they a physical record of past, possibly cyclic, climate change and, if so, can we learn to read that record? We know from past Mariner 9 and Viking orbital observations that there are layered terrains at high latitudes, defined by alternating bands of visually lighter and darker material appearing in stacks hundreds of meters thick with individual bands as thin as could then be resolved (tens of meters). In this talk, aspects of the polar layered terrains will be reviewed with emphasis on issues likely to be addressed with data from ongoing and near-term flight missions to Mars. Particular attention will be given to what might be learned from observing the present seasonal cycles of dust, water and carbon dioxide on Mars, in conjunction with in situ data from one site on the south polar layered terrain.
The low luminosity radio emission of the unusually faint GRB 031203 has been argued to support the idea of a class of intrinsically sub-energetic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), currently comprising two members. While low energy GRBs probably exist, we show that the collective prompt and multiwavelength observations of the afterglow of GRB 031203, do not necessarily require a sub-energetic nature for that event. In fact, the data are more consistent with a typical, powerful GRB seen at an angle of about twice the opening angle of the central jet. The (redshift corrected) peak energy, E(sub p), of GRB 031203 then becomes approximately 2 MeV, similar to many other GRBs.
This paper describes how the Abort Motor thrust profile has been tailored and how optimizing the Concept of Operations on the Launch Abort System (LAS) of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) aides in getting the crew safely away from a failed Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Unlike the passive nature of the Apollo system, the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle will be actively controlled, giving the program a more robust abort system with a higher probability of crew survival for an abort at all points throughout the CLV trajectory. By optimizing the concept of operations and thrust profile the Orion program will be able to take full advantage of the active Orion LAS. Discussion will involve an overview of the development of the abort motor thrust profile and the current abort concept of operations as well as their effects on the performance of LAS aborts. Pad Abort (for performance) and Maximum Drag (for separation from the Launch Vehicle) are the two points that dictate the required thrust and shape of the thrust profile. The results in this paper show that 95% success of all performance requirements is not currently met for Pad Abort. Future improvements to the current parachute sequence and other potential changes will mitigate the current problems, and meet abort performance requirements.
An all-composite driveshaft incorporating integral flexible diaphragms was developed for prime contractor testing. This new approach makes obsolete the split lines required to attach metallic flex elements and either metallic or composite spacing tubes in current solutions. Subcritical driveshaft weights can be achieved that are half that of incumbent technology for typical rotary wing shaft lengths. Spacing tubes compose an integral part of the initial tooling but remain part of the finished shaft and control natural frequencies and torsional stability. A concurrently engineered manufacturing process and design for performance competes with incumbent solutions at significantly lower weight and with the probability of improved damage tolerance and fatigue life.
Hamming or shortened Hamming codes are widely used for error detection in data communications. For example, the CCITT (International Telegraph and Telephone Consultative Committee) recommendation X.25 for packet-switched data networks adopts a distance-4 cyclic Hamming code with 16 parity-check bits for error detection. The natural length of this code is n = 2(15)-1 = 32,767. In practice the length of a data packet is no more than a few thousand bits which is much shorter than the natural length of the code. Consequently, a shortened version of thecode is used. Often the length of a data packet varies, say from a few hundred bits to a few thousand bits, hence the code must be shortened by various degrees. Shortening affects the performance of the code. The error-detection performance of shortened Hamming codes, particularly the codes obtained from the distance-4 Hamming codes adopted by CCITT recommendation X.25, is investigated. A method for computing the probability of an undetected error is presented.
The degree of diversity or similarity detected in comets depends primarily on the lifetimes of the individual cometary nuclei at the time of analysis. It is inherent in our understanding of cometary orbital dynamics and the seminal model of comet origins by Oort that cometary evolution is the natural order of events in our Solar System. Thus, predictions of cometary behaviour in terms of bulk physical, mineralogical or chemical parameters should contain an appreciation of temporal variation(s). Previously, Rietmeijer and Mackinnon developed mineralogical bases for the chemical evolution of cometary nuclei primarily with regard to the predominantly silicate fraction of comet nuclei. We suggested that alteration of solids in cometary nuclei should be expected and that indications of likely reactants and products can be derived from judicious comparison with terrestrial diagenetic environments which include hydrocryogenic and low-temperature aqueous alterations. In a further development of this concept, Rietmeijer provides indirect evidence for the formation of sulfides and oxides in comet nuclei. Furthermore, Rietmeijer noted that timescales for hydrocryogenic and low-temperature reactions involving liquid water are probably adequate for relatively mature comets, e.g. P/comet Halley. In this paper, we will address the evolution of comet nuclei physical parameters such as solid particle grain size, porosity and density. In natural environments, chemical evolution (e.g. mineral reactions) is often accompanied by changes in physical properties. These concurrent changes are well-documented in the terrestrial geological literature, especially in studies of sediment diagenesis and we suggest that similar basic principles apply within the upper few meters of active comet nuclei. The database for prediction of comet nuclei physical parameters is, in principle, the same as used for the proposition of chemical evolution. We use detailed mineralogical studies of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPS) as a guide to the likely constitution of mature comets traversing the inner Solar System. While there is, as yet, no direct proof that a specific sub-group or type of chondritic IDP is derived from a specific comet, it is clear that these particles are extraterrestrial in origin and that a certain portion of the interplanetary flux received by the Earth is cometary in origin. Two chondritic porous (CP) MPs, sample numbers W7010A2 and W7029Cl, from the Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Collection have been selected for this study of putative cometary physical parameters. This particular type of particle is considered a likely candidate for a cometary origin on the basis of mineralogy, bulk composition and morphology. While many IDPs have been subjected to intensive study over the past decade, we can develop a physical parameter model on only these two CP IDPs because few others have been studied in sufficient detail.
The degree of diversity or similarity detected in comets depends primarily on the lifetimes of the individual cometary nuclei at the time of analysis. It is inherent in our understanding of cometary orbital dynamics and the seminal model of comet origins that cometary evolution is the natural order of events in our Solar System. Thus, predictions of cometary behaviour in terms of bulk physical, mineralogical or chemical parameters should contain an appreciation of temporal variation(s). Previously, Rietmeijer and Mackinnon [1987] developed mineralogical bases for the chemical evolution of cometary nuclei primarily with regard to the predominantly silicate fraction of comet nuclei. We suggested that alteration of solids in cometary nuclei should be expected and that indications of likely reactants and products can be derived from judicious comparison with terrestrial diagenetic environments which include hydrocryogenic and low-temperature aqueous alterations. In a further development of this concept, Rietmeijer [1988] provides indirect evidence for the formation of sulfides and oxides in comet nuclei. Furthermore, Rietmeijer [1988] noted that timescales for hydrocryogenic and low-temperature reactions involving liquid water are probably adequate for relatively mature comets, e.g. P/comet Halley. In this paper, we will address the evolution of comet nuclei physical parameters such as solid particle grain size, porosity and density. In natural environments, chemical evolution (e.g. mineral reactions) is often accompanied by changes in physical properties. These concurrent changes are well-documented in the terrestrial geological literature, especially in studies of sediment diagenesis and we suggest that similar basic principles apply within the upper few meters of active comet nuclei. The database for prediction of comet nuclei physical parameters is, in principle, the same as used for the proposition of chemical evolution. We use detailed mineralogical studies of chondritic interplanetary dust particles (IDPS) as a guide to the likely constitution of mature comets traversing the inner Solar System. While there is, as yet, no direct proof that a specific sub-group or type of chondritic IDP is derived from a specific comet, it is clear that these particles are extraterrestrial in origin and that a certain portion of the interplanetary flux received by the Earth is cometary in origin. Two chondritic porous (CP) IDPS, sample numbers W701OA2 and W7029CI, from the Johnson Space Center Cosmic Dust Collection have been selected for this study of putative cometary physical parameters. This particular type of particle is considered a likely candidate for a cometary origin on the basis of mineralogy, bulk composition and morphology. While many IDPs have been subjected to intensive study over the past decade, we can develop a physical parameter model on only these two CP IDPs because few others have been studied in sufficient detail.
Impact phenomena shaped our solar system. As usual for most solar system processes, the scales are far different than we can address directly in the laboratory. Impact velocities are often much higher than we can achieve, sizes are often vastly larger, and most impacts take place in an environment where the only gravitational force is the mutual pull of the impactors. The Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique has been applied in the past to the simulations of giant impacts. In these simulations, the colliding objects were so massive (at least a sizeable fraction of the Earth's mass) that material strength was negligible compared to gravity. This assumption can no longer be made when the bodies are much smaller. To this end, we have developed a 3D SPH code that includes a strength model to which we have added a von Mises yielding relation for stresses beyond the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. At the lower stresses associated with brittle failure, we use a rate-dependent strength based on the nucleation of incipient flaws whose number density is given by a Weibull distribution. Following Grady and Kipp and Melosh et al., we introduce a state variable D ('damage'), 0 less than D less than 1, which expresses the local reduction in strength due to crack growth under tensile loading. Unfortunately for the hydrodynamics, Grady and Kipp's model predicts which fragments are the most probable ones and not the ones that are really formed. This means, for example, that if a given laboratory experiment is modeled, the fragment distribution obtained from the Grady-Kipp theory would be equivalent to a ensemble average over many realizations of the experiment. On the other hand, the hydrodynamics itself is explicit and evolves not an ensemble average but very specific fragments. Hence, there is a clear incompatibility with the deterministic nature of the hydrodynamics equations and the statistical approach of the Grady-Kipp dynamical fracture model. We remedy these shortcomings by making the incipient flaw distribution explicit, i.e., particles carry activation strains which are distributed at random with a probability of occurrence given by the Weibull distribution. If the local principal axis strain exceeds this limit, damage starts to grow. By growing explicit cracks together with statistical cracks (damage) at the sub-particle scale, we ensure that material strength and fragmentation is independent of model resolution. We tested our scheme by simulating laboratory impact experiments on basalt spheres.
It is shown that the global nature of trapped particle motion in phase space makes it entirely plausible that particles with pitch angles near 90 deg are trapped for extremely long times, probably indefinitely. The long observed lifetimes of trapped particles can immediately be accounted for by this former population. For particles with low pitch angles an 'overstability' develops which serves to produce rapid variations in pitch angle and, presumably, random walk into the loss cone.
We report here the discovery of a recent meteorite shower in Antarctica, the members of which have very high natural thermoluminescence levels. It is apparent from these data that the shower has been on Earth only a short time (approximately 1000 years) and the meteorite probably came to Earth through rapid (less than 10 exp 5 years) evolution from an orbit with perihelion greater than 1.1 AU, similar to Amor asteroids. Only a very small number of meteorites, including a few modern falls, appear to have had similar orbital histories.
Dust grains in planetary rings acquire stochastically fluctuating electric charges as they orbit through any corotating magnetospheric plasma. Here we investigate the nature of this stochastic charging and calculate its effect on the Lorentz resonance (LR). First we model grain charging as a Markov process, where the transition probabilities are identified as the ensemble-averaged charging fluxes due to plasma pickup and photoemission. We determine the distribution function P(t;N), giving the probability that a grain has N excess charges at time t. The autocorrelation function tau(sub q) for the strochastic charge process can be approximated by a Fokker-Planck treatment of the evolution equations for P(t; N). We calculate the mean square response to the stochastic fluctuations in the Lorentz force. We find that transport in phase space is very small compared to the resonant increase in amplitudes due to the mean charge, over the timescale that the oscillator is resonantly pumped up. Therefore the stochastic charge variations cannot break the resonant interaction; locally, the Lorentz resonance is a robust mechanism for the shaping of etheral dust ring systems. Slightly stronger bounds on plasma parameters are required when we consider the longer transit times between Lorentz resonances.
The optical spectra of rare earth ions in solids arise primarily from electric and magnetic dipole transitions between stark split multiplets of the 4f(sup N) electronic configuration. Electric dipole transitions are parity forbidden between levels of the 4f(sup N) configuration, while those of magnetic dipole origin are allowed. It is known from experiment, however, that the significant contributions to the intensities of most transitions are electric dipole in nature. Judd and Ofelt developed the theory of forced electric dipole transitions of rare-earth ions. This study is devoted to determining electric dipole transition probabilities and branching ratios for Tm(3+) and Ho(3+) ions in Yttrium Aluminum Garnet (YAG) and Yttrium Lithium Fluoride (YLF) using the theory of Judd and Ofelt. The radiative rates determined from the Judd-Ofelt analysis are used with measured lifetimes to find nonradiative rates of relaxation.
Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.