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Plan graphs are commonly used in planning to help compute heuristic "distance" estimates between states and goals. A few authors have also attempted to use plan graphs in probabilistic planning to compute estimates of the probability that propositions can be achieved and actions can be performed. This is done by propagating probability information forward through the plan graph from the initial conditions through each possible action to the action effects, and hence to the propositions at the next layer of the plan graph. The problem with these calculations is that they make very strong independence assumptions - in particular, they usually assume that the preconditions for each action are independent of each other. This can lead to gross overestimates in probability when the plans for those preconditions interfere with each other. It can also lead to gross underestimates of probability when there is synergy between the plans for two or more preconditions. In this paper we introduce a notion of the binary correlation between two propositions and actions within a plan graph, show how to propagate this information within a plan graph, and show how this improves probability estimates for planning. This notion of correlation can be thought of as a continuous generalization of the notion of mutual exclusion (mutex) often used in plan graphs. At one extreme (correlation=0) two propositions or actions are completely mutex. With correlation = 1, two propositions or actions are independent, and with correlation > 1, two propositions or actions are synergistic. Intermediate values can and do occur indicating different degrees to which propositions and action interfere or are synergistic. We compare this approach with another recent approach by Bryce that computes probability estimates using Monte Carlo simulation of possible worlds in plan graphs.
Abstract. This is a comment on the review by Korolev and Leisner (2020, hereafter KL2020). The only two laboratory/field studies ever to measure the breakup in ice–ice collisions for in-cloud conditions were negatively criticised by KL2020, as were our subsequent theoretical and modelling studies informed by both studies. First, hypothetically, even without any further laboratory experiments, such theoretical and modelling studies would continue to be possible, based on classical mechanics and statistical physics. They are not sensitive to the accuracy of lab data for typical situations, partly because the nonlinear explosive growth of ice concentrations continues until some maximum concentration is reached. To a degree, the same final concentration is expected regardless of the fragment number per collision. Second, there is no evidence that both lab/field observational studies characterising fragmentation in ice–ice collisions are either mutually conflicting or erroneous such that they cannot be used to represent this breakup in numerical models, contrary to the review. The fact that the ice spheres of one experiment were hail sized (2 cm) is not a problem if a universal theoretical formulation, such as ours, with fundamental dependencies, is informed by it. Although both lab/field studies involved head-on collisions, rotational kinetic energy for all collisions generally is only a small fraction of the initial collision kinetic energy (CKE) anyway. Although both lab/field experiments involved fixed targets, that is not a problem since the fixing of the target is represented via CKE in any energy-based formulation such as ours. Finally, scaling analysis suggests that the breakup of ice during sublimation can make a significant contribution to ice enhancement in clouds, again contrary to the impression given by the review.
In June of 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) announced the selection of its Collaboration-Based Siting (CBS) Consortia, a group of 12 awardees, including the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) (led by Vanderbilt University) to assist DOE-NE with the development of its process for siting a federal consolidated interim storage facility (FCISF) for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage. At this time, DOE NE is not soliciting interested host communities, rather the CBS Consortia are tasked with in-depth engagement, mutual learning, and capacity building to provide DOE NE with feedback on the CBS process. CRESP’s objective is to engage communities in two regions (the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast) with sites currently storing defense- and research-related SNF to foster learning concerning the best and worst practices in community participation in risk-informed decision making. This includes learning from existing structures for public input in radioactive waste management decision making [e.g. citizen advisory boards (CABs)] and other local parties about how to build and sustain trust among the parties. CRESP has been working to engage stakeholders and Tribes surrounding two DOE sites historically differing in receptiveness to engaging with DOE and trusting in DOE to accomplish its missions. CRESP’s approach to date has consisted of (1) engaging voluntarily members and former members of the DOE Office of Environmental Management’s CABs to develop a mutual understanding of their perspectives, values, and experiences related to risk and participatory decision making; (2) engaging members of those communities that would likely be part of any radioactive waste management discussions and who may provide valuable feedback for the development of the CBS process; and in the longer term, (3) engaging communities to foster knowledge sharing on understanding and definitions of risk and how risk is factored into community decision making. Our emphasis is to identify opportunities for improving risk communication frameworks, strategies, and decision making. The selection of a future FCISF site is likely to result in the creation of a structure similar to a CAB composed of members of the local community. We anticipate that these insights can help DOE NE learn from existing participatory risk communication structures in place at sites storing defenseor research-related SNF to understand best practices for fostering enduring and participatory relationships with future CABs. Within this paper, we (1) describe CRESP’s overall approach to assisting DOE NE with maturing the CBS process; (2) present a summary of preliminary phase 1 project results, including the development of a body of knowledge (describing available resources to support community engagement, risk communica tion, and participatory decision making) and community ecosystem information (leveraging demographic, social, economic, and environmental attribute mapping and advanced sentiment analysis of social media data); and (3) based on these results, provide observations for future research opportunities to support the development of CBS processes for radioactive waste management facilities, generally.
Oscillators designed to function at cryogenic temperatures play a critical role in superconducting electronics and quantum computing by providing stable, low-noise signals with minimal energy loss. Here, in this work, we present a comprehensive numerical study of injection locking and mutual coupling dynamics in superconducting nanowire (ScNW)-based cryogenic oscillators. Using the design space of a standalone ScNW-based oscillator, we investigate two critical mechanisms that govern frequency synchronization and signal coordination in cryogenic computing architectures: (1) injection locking induced by an external AC signal with a frequency near the oscillator's natural frequency, and (2) the mutual coupling dynamics between two ScNW oscillators under varying coupling strengths. We identify key design parameters—such as shunt resistance, nanowire inductance, and coupling strength—that govern the locking range. Additionally, we examine how the amplitude of the injected signal affects the amplitude of the locked oscillation, offering valuable insights for power-aware oscillator synchronization. Furthermore, we analyze mutual synchronization between coupled ScNW oscillators using capacitive and resistive coupling elements. Our results reveal that the phase difference between oscillators can be controlled by tuning the coupling strength, enabling programmable phase-encoded information processing. These findings could enable building ScNW-based oscillatory neural networks, synchronized cryogenic logic blocks, and on-chip cryogenic resonator arrays.
For every $1 billion invested in projects, $97 million is wasted due to poor project performance. That means 9.7% of money spent on projects is wasted due to poor risk and uncertainty management. High-risk projects, similar to those in waste remediation, have the most to lose. A solid quantitative risk management program is one of the keys to increasing the likelihood that a project will succeed. A quantitative risk program solves two major problems that challenge the effective management of risk and uncertainty: 1. Risks arise at all levels of an organization; however, not all organizational levels have an effective way to identify and resolve them. This can lead to risks that, even if identified, are not reported. 2. Decision-makers are often forced to operate solely on intuition when implementing mitigation strategies, not fully understanding the effects that certain decisions have on the program's cost and schedule. A quantitative risk program uses a risk register and builds it into the project/program integrated schedule to assess the impact of these risks, typically at the 80% confidence contingency level for specific milestones and/or project completion. Implementing a quantitative risk program drives a forward-thinking, proactive mentality to problem solving into all levels of the organization. A healthy risk program for regular reporting and communication ensures that all members of an organization are thinking about risks and using their communication channels to resolve them. It gives a method of communication and incentive for all levels in the organization and helps to ensure that risks will be reported and resolved. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed tools and methods that provide a level of realism for analyzing different scenarios and estimating contingency that does not exist in the standard industry risk tool kit. These tools and methods provide decision-makers with actionable, quantitatively based information to guide their decision making. The first tool is a probabilistic branching risk model for mitigation strategies. Current quantitative risk analysis tools in the industry simulate two cases: fully mitigated and un-mitigated. In the fully mitigated case, the user assumes that every planned mitigation activity is successful. In the un-mitigated case, the user assumes that none are successful. The truth lies between these two extremes. The PNNL team has developed a probabilistic risk model for mitigation scenarios that includes a probability that a mitigation activity will succeed and a probability that a mitigation action will be funded. These probabilities are elicited from subject matter experts and ensure that the contingency calculations at the specified confidence are approaching reality. The second tool developed at PNNL is the Risk Box, which is a tool that integrates with different scenarios in the risk register. For example, say the user is faced with two different and mutually exclusive mitigation actions to reduce a risk. The Risk Box methodology performs the contingency calculations and then displays them on a time-phased graph that shows how each scenario reduces the risk contingency needed on the project/program. This graph then provides quantitative information to show decision-makers which mitigation action provides the greatest reduction (cost and schedule) in risk contingency for the program. Implementing these and other tools within a structured risk program increases the likelihood that a project will come in on schedule and budget, ensures that all personnel are proactively thinking about problems and resolutions, creates communication channels for all members to submit and resolve potential problems, produces a prioritized list of risk rankings to focus leadership on issues that may cause the biggest problems, and implements processes that drive updates to the risk program as the risk profile changes. PNNL has been developing these methods and using them on projects for over 20 years. They have been successfully applied on waste management projects, high-tech research and development projects, and construction projects, and they continue to be used on a number of U.S. Department of Energy projects today. (authors)
Rapid emergence of multimodal imaging in scanning probe, electron, and optical microscopies has brought forth the challenge of understanding the information contained in these complex data sets, targeting the intrinsic correlations between different channels, and further exploring the underpinning causal physical mechanisms. Here, we develop such an analysis framework for Piezoresponse Force Microscopy. We argue that under certain conditions, we can bootstrap experimental observations with the prior knowledge of materials structure to get information on certain nonobserved properties, and demonstrate linear causal analysis for PFM observables. We further demonstrate that the strength of individual causal links between complex descriptors can be ascertained using the deep kernel learning (DKL) model. In this DKL analysis, we use the prior information on domain structure within the image to predict the physical properties. This analysis demonstrates the correlative relationships between morphology, piezoresponse, elastic property, etc., at nanoscale. The prediction of morphology and other physical parameters illustrates a mutual interaction between surface condition and physical properties in ferroelectric materials. Overall, this analysis is universal and can be extended to explore the correlative relationships of other multichannel data sets, and allow for high-fidelity reconstruction of underpinning functionalities and physical mechanisms.
Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
American Airlines and NASA Ames Research Center have a long-standing partnership to conduct human factors fatigue research in airline operations. Since 2016, using a mechanism known as a Space Act Agreement, NASA Ames’ Fatigue Countermeasures Laboratory has worked with the American’s Fatigue Risk Management team to gather sleep and alertness data from volunteer flight crew members. Operations studied include long-range transpacific flights, timing of inflight rest breaks during augmented flights, and rates of acclimation related to flights making theater changes. This mutually beneficial collaborative working arrangement allows American to conduct operations of specific interest under the FAA’s Alternative Means of Compliance process and provides NASA with a means to gather and analyze data that can be used to inform operational safety-related decisions. Earlier this year, results from the study of inflight rest breaks was published in the journal Aerospace Medicine and Human Performance. A total of 500 American pilots responded to a survey with landing crew reporting more and better-quality sleep during break 2 than break 3. Subsequent ratings of sleepiness and alertness at TOD were significantly better for crew who used break 2. Findings from this study were reported to the FAA leading to an inflight fatigue mitigation capability for many pilots in the industry. An upcoming study is to evaluate workload and alertness levels during Caribbean Turn (DFW-SJO-DFW) operations. For this study, the FRMS team and NASA will ask volunteers to collect data on sleep, workload, performance, and alertness using scientifically valid methods The information gained in this study will help inform how workload and fatigue interact with duty duration during short-haul, daytime operations.
Power-flow controls (PFCs) technologies provide a suite of alternatives to more-efficiently direct the flow of power on the grid, improving flexibility and enabling the grid to be more responsive and resilient. PFCs can be used in many cases to mitigate overloads and consequently defer the installation of grid-expansion projects. They can also be suitable options in situations where new transmission lines cannot be built because of environmental constraints, land use, or other types of restrictions. Other uses include mitigation of loop or unintended flows, forcing of contractual or scheduled flows, reduction of congestion, and mitigation solutions during large maintenance or construction projects. While many studies have demonstrated the potential economic benefits of PFC for different types of applications, the implementation implications of using multiple PFCs for system operation and reliability have not been analyzed in detail. The lack of information and practical experience on these aspects hinders adoption of this technology. One use case would be that multiple PFCs are required to coordinate congestion management. In such cases, multiple PFCs are deployed in a meshed power system to control power flows across a wide area. The challenges are associated with PFC interaction—namely, the self and mutual power-flow sensitivity of each PFC, which must be accounted for in the calculation of the respective operating setpoints. This report analyzes implementation and operation that must be considered in evaluating transmission solutions using PFCs. The report first analyzes attributes with which PFC-based solutions should comply, based on the objective and characteristics of each particular use case. It then describes different approaches for coordinated control of multiple PFC devices for different applications, including options to avoid adverse interactions and reduce risks due to inappropriate coordination. Control and operation are illustrated through case studies performed on both generic and actual power system models. This report provides insights for transmission planners and operation engineers about the implementation of PFC-based transmission solutions; consequently, it will help them make informed decisions about the adoption of the technology.
Electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) is a widely used imaging modality to image two-dimensional cross sections of multiphase flows. Recent developments in electrical capacitance volume tomography (ECVT) have made it possible to directly obtain volumetric images from measured data. An ECVT is instrumental for obtaining accurate phase hold up information and velocity information that are needed for the optimization of certain flow processes. However, compared to ECT, the high correlation between the measurements in ECVT exacerbates the ill-conditioning of the associated image reconstruction problem. Previous studies have suggested that neglecting mutual capacitance data between the ECVT electrodes located at cross-planes that are well separated along the sensor axis can be done without significantly affecting the reconstructed image. In addition, this may help constrain the ill-conditioning of the reconstruction problem. Here, we examine in detail and quantify the effect of reduced cross-plane acquisition strategies for optimizing the image reconstruction and constraining the ill-conditioning of typical ECVT settings.
Risk communication is often viewed as imparting information and perhaps as a two-way dialogue. Risk communication inadequacies on the part of both “communicator” and “community members” can lead to adverse consequences and amplify environmental justice disparities. The paper suggests a transformational approach where risk communicators must learn to trust community experts and their knowledge base (and act upon it), where risk information imparted by risk communicators addresses what communities are most concerned about (as well as risk from specific chemicals or radionuclides), and where risk information and assessments address underlying issues and disparities, as well as cultural traditions (among others). Providing risk probabilities is no longer sufficient; western science may not be enough, and community and native scientific knowledge is needed. Risk communication (or information transfer) for environmental risks that are ongoing usually applies to low-income, minority communities—people living in dense inner cities, rural communities, Native American communities—or to people living near a risky facility. Communication within this context requires mutual trust, listening and respect, as well as acceptance of indigenous and community knowledge as equally valuable. Examples are given to illustrate a community perspective.
The airspace near Goldstone is shared by many users in carrying out their respective missions. Coordination of Goldstone high power transmitter radiation activity with mutual airspace users near Goldstone is an effective method to prevent aircraft from being exposed to radiation levels greater than 10 mW/sq cm, to allow Goldstone to transmit high power levels for planetary radar experiments and to provide the necessary information to both civil and military aircraft users to enable them to perform their necessary activities.
For the past century, scientists have made quantitative measurements of lightning discharges. In the process, they refined the definition of a lightning unit, or basic quantum of lightning, in order to base it on observable parameters. Although many components of a lightning discharge have been identified, lightning usually occur in groups of discharges or pulses that, although complex, can be organized into units of flashes. This unit definition is based mainly on measurements of lightning from electric field, video, and ground flash lightning locating networks. More recent instrumentation with various combinations of high sensitivity, high temporal, or high spatial resolution often measure signals produced by lightning that do not cleanly divide into flashes. The data from these systems indicate the need or a more fundamental unit for lightning. Such a unit would be of benefit for both basic understanding of lightning and comparing lightning information between instruments. Without a common lightning unit definition, intercomparisons are difficult. For an example, the Lightning Detection And Ranging system (LDAR) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) have detected ,flash' rates as high as 600 per minute while analysis based on the Advanced Ground Based Field Mill network (AGBFM) detect only 33 "flashes" per minute in the same area and time periods. The satellite based Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) sometimes see single "flashes" that last longer than 10 seconds. Such long duration flashes are not found in electric field records or ground strike location system data sets. The unit of lightning should be based on the fundamental components of the lightning discharge. This should make the unit as generally applicable as possible. For example, studies of NO(x) production by lightning depend on parameters of the individual lightning channels and not the summary flash characteristics. For such studies, the best unit of lightning may be closer to the classical stroke in the electric field data sets, flash in the LDAR data sets, and group in the OTD/LIS data sets. For this type of study, however, more than just the stroke count information is needed. In this paper, we will outline the current definitions of the unit of lightning and propose new basic definitions for the unit of lightning. Since different instruments detect lightning in different ways and different studies may need almost mutually exclusive aspects of the lightning discharge, there may not be a single definition of the unit of lightning that can be applied to all systems and all studies. However, common components can be found since all instrumentation are detecting aspects of the same phenomenon.
The present investigation is concerned with the differing scientific user community requirements for cloud data and the nature of archived satellite data. It is concluded that information on cloud characteristics and cloud cover is of the utmost importance for at least three scientific research areas, viz. numerical weather forecasting, environmental remote sensing, and climatic monitoring and modelling. However, these three user groups require information at different levels of temporal and spatial resolution, and the nature of the comparison between surface and satellite assessment of cloud cover differs among the three groups. Taking into account the diverse requirements of the scientific community and difficulty of a mutually agreed definition of the cloud parameters, a number of recommendations are made. It is suggested that radiance data, not cloud data, should be archived directly from satellite observations, and that the highest spatial and temporal resolutions available should be retained in the archive.
Quantum energy teleportation (QET) is the phenomenon in which locally inaccessible energy is activated as extractable work through collaborative local operations and classical communication (LOCC) with an entangled partner. It closely resembles the more well-known quantum information teleportation (QIT) where quantum information can be sent through an entangled pair with LOCC. It is tempting to ask how QET is related to QIT. Here we report a first study of this connection. Despite the apparent similarity, we show that these two phenomena are not only distinct but moreover are mutually competitive. We show a perturbative trade-off relation between their performance in a thermal entangled chaotic many-body system, in which both QET and QIT are simultaneously implemented through a traversable wormhole in an emergent spacetime. Motivated by this example, we study a generic setup of two entangled qudits and prove a universal non-perturbative trade-off bound. It shows that for any teleportation protocol, the overall performance of QET and QIT together is constrained by the entanglement resource. We discuss some explanations of our results.
Research on humans conducted during spaceflight is fraught both with great opportunities and great obstacles. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the limitations to research in space in the United States with hope that an informed scientific community may lead to more rapid and efficient solution of these problems. Limitations arise because opportunities to study the same astronauts in well-controlled situations on repeated spaceflights are practically non-existent. Human research opportunities are further limited by the necessity of avoiding simultaneous mutually-interfering experiments. Environmental factors, including diet and other physiological perturbations concomitant with spaceflight, also complicate research design and interpretation. Technical limitations to research methods and opportunities further restrict the development of the knowledge base. Finally, Earth analogues of space travel all suffer from inadequacies. Though all of these obstacles will eventually be overcome, creativity, diligence, and persistence are required to further our knowledge of humans in space.
The NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) has been pursuing international partnerships since its inception as the NASA Lunar Science Institute (NLSI), in order to both leverage the science being done by its domestic member institutions as well as to help lunar science and exploration become a greater global endeavor. The international partners of the Institute have pursued a broad program of lunar science stimulated by scientific partnerships enabled by the SSERVI community. Furthermore, regional partnerships have been formed such as the new pan-European lunar science consortium, which promises both new scientific approaches and mission concepts. International partner membership requires long-term commitment from both the partner and SSERVI, together with tangible and specific plans for scientific interaction that will produce results of mutual benefit to both the institute's U.S. Teams and the international partner. International partners are invited to participate in all aspects of the Institute's activities and programs, on a basis of no exchange of funds. Through these activities, SSERVI researchers and international partners participate in sharing ideas, information, and data arising from their respective research efforts, and contribute to the training of young scientists. This talk will present an overview of the Institute and the international nodes. We will also discuss the various processes to become a SSERVI partner as well as the opportunities available for collaborations with the SSERVI national teams.