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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating uncertainty: A Bayesian approach to modelling photosynthesis in C3 leaves

The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model is extensively used to model pho-tosynthesis from gas exchange measurements. Since its publication, many methods have been developed to measure, or more accurately estimate, parameters of this model. Here, we have created a tool that uses Bayesian statistics to fit photosyn-thetic parameters using concurrent gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence mea-surements whilst evaluating the reliability of the parameter estimation. We have tested this tool on synthetic data and experimental data from rice leaves. Our results indicate that reliable parameter estimation can be achieved whilst only keeping one parameter, Km, that is, Michaelis constant for CO2 by Rubisco, prefixed. Additionally, we show that including detailed low CO2 measurements at low light levels increases reliability and suggests this as a new standard measurement protocol. By providing an estimated distribution of parameter values, the tool can be used to evaluate the quality of data from gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurement proto-cols. Compared to earlier model fitting methods, the use of a Bayesian statistics-based tool minimizes human interaction during fitting, reducing the subjectivity which is essential to most existing tools. A user friendly, interactive Bayesian tool script is provided.

Bayesian statistics, leaf photosynthesis, mesophyl↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Joint Search for Muon Neutrino Disappearance with the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program Using the SPINE Deep Learning-Based Reconstruction Package

We present the status of a joint search for muon neutrino disappearance in the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab using the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program's two-detector configuration, SBND and ICARUS. Charged-current interactions consistent with muon neutrinos and containing only a muon and at least one proton in the final state are reconstructed and selected using the SPINE deep learning-based particle reconstruction package. To exploit proton multiplicity information and enhance sensitivity to modeling effects, the selected sample is partitioned into exclusive channels with exactly one reconstructed proton and with more than one reconstructed proton. Comprehensive systematic uncertainties from the neutrino flux, interaction, and detector response are incorporated into the analysis, and the coverage of these systematic uncertainty models is validated using data from both detectors, including checks of near-far consistency in key kinematic and topology-sensitive observables. This analysis is intended for inclusion in SBN's first oscillation result.

Mueller, Justin [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Control of Wave Energy Converters Using Unstructured Uncertainty

In the design of ocean wave energy converters, proper control design is essential to the maximization of the power generation performance for the device. However, in realistic applications, this control design must be undertaken in the presence of model uncertainty. This paper considers the use of robust control theory to optimize the nominal performance for a wave energy converter in stochastic waves, subject to the constraint that the controller be stability-robust to unstructured uncertainties. We formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the primary objective is the maximization of power generation for the nominal system, and the competing objective is the norm of the uncertainty input/output channel. This optimal control problem is nonconvex, and we therefore propose an iterative algorithm that can be used to arrive at a local optimal solution. This iterative approach employs the concept of Iterative Convex Overbounding, in the context of the classical Method of Centers. Here, the methodology is demonstrated on a model of a single, buoy- type wave energy converter.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evolve-Then-Correct Reduced Order Model for Hidden Fluid Dynamics

In this paper, we put forth an evolve-then-correct reduced order modeling approach that combines intrusive and nonintrusive models to take hidden physical processes into account. Specifically, we split the underlying dynamics into known and unknown components. In the known part, we first utilize an intrusive Galerkin method projected on a set of basis functions obtained by proper orthogonal decomposition. We then present two variants of correction formula based on the assumption that the observed data are a manifestation of all relevant processes. The first method uses a standard least-squares regression with a quadratic approximation and requires solving a rank-deficient linear system, while the second approach employs a recurrent neural network emulator to account for the correction term. We further enhance our approach by using an orthonormality conforming basis interpolation approach on a Grassmannian manifold to address off-design conditions. The proposed framework is illustrated here with the application of two-dimensional co-rotating vortex simulations under modeling uncertainty. The results demonstrate highly accurate predictions underlining the effectiveness of the evolve-then-correct approach toward real-time simulations, where the full process model is not known a priori.

long short-term memory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2026

An adaptive model-free robotic force control strategy for hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) - a cyber-physical testing approach - promises to enhance the simulation fidelity of the model-scale experiments used to prototype floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). In hydrodynamic RTHS (hydro-RTHS), actuators emulate aerodynamic forces on model-scale FOWT specimens subjected to physical waves in a hydrodynamic laboratory. Robotic arms are promising candidates for actuation in hydro-RTHS due to their compact multi-degree-of-freedom (DOF) capabilities. Unlike classical RTHS for seismic applications, which typically relies on displacement control, hydro-RTHS requires 6-DOF force control on newly designed floating prototypes in a model-scale setting, which presents significant challenges, including modeling uncertainties, directional asymmetry, configuration drift, bandwidth limitations, and time-varying delays. To mitigate these constraints without extensive pre-test calibration, this study proposes an adaptive model-free robotic force control strategy that combines task-space explicit force control with a secondary joint-space pose-keeping task. The Adaptive Feedforward Compensator (AFC) is integrated into the force control loop to compensate for time-varying delay. Experimental testing was conducted using a Franka Emika Panda robotic arm with a 1:50 scale FOWT specimen under operational wind and wave conditions. Results demonstrate stable and consistent 6-DOF force tracking. Effective delay compensation was observed, with low-frequency delay reductions ranging from 71.4% to 91.8% and improvements in low-frequency surge force tracking of 25.0% to 52.1%. This study enhances robotic actuation performance in hydro-RTHS and introduces a force control strategy that supports reliable robotic operation in uncertain floating environments. Future work will explore disturbance-observer mechanisms to further enhance wave rejection capabilities under extreme wind and wave conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model

In spite of the importance of land ecosystems in offsetting carbon dioxide emissions released by anthropogenic activities into the atmosphere, the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon fluxes remain largely uncertain at regional to global scales. Over the past decade, data assimilation (DA) techniques have grown in importance for improving these fluxes simulated by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), by optimizing model parameter values while also pinpointing possible parameterization deficiencies. Although the joint assimilation of multiple data streams is expected to constrain a wider range of model processes, their actual benefits in terms of reduction in model uncertainty are still under-researched, also given the technical challenges. In this study, we investigated with a consistent DA framework and the ORCHIDEE-LMDz TBM–atmosphere model how the assimilation of different combinations of data streams may result in different regional to global carbon budgets. To do so, we performed comprehensive DA experiments where three datasets (in situ measurements of net carbon exchange and latent heat fluxes, spaceborne estimates of the normalized difference vegetation index, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration data measured at stations) were assimilated alone or simultaneously. We thus evaluated their complementarity and usefulness to constrain net and gross C land fluxes. We found that a major challenge in improving the spatial distribution of the land C sinks and sources with atmospheric CO 2 data relates to the correction of the soil carbon imbalance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding carbon sourcing and transport originating from the helicon antenna surfaces during high-power helicon discharge in DIII-D Tokamak

The high-power helicon wave system in the DIII-D tokamak could potentially introduce new plasma–material interaction (PMI) challenges owing to rectified RF sheath potentials that develop near the antenna and surrounding plasma-facing components. We present the first application of the STRIPE (Simulated Transport of RF Impurity Production and Emission) framework to helicon-induced PMIs, extending previous STRIPE studies of ICRH antennas by incorporating net erosion, local re-deposition, and three-dimensional global impurity transport. The integrated workflow couples SOLPS, COMSOL, RustBCA, GITR, and GITRm to simulate carbon erosion, re-deposition, and impurity transport for two experimentally constrained DIII-D H-mode helicon operating scenarios with different antenna–plasma gaps, coupled RF powers, and edge plasma conditions. COMSOL predicts rectified RF sheath potentials of 1–5 kV localized near the lower portion of the antenna, where the magnetic field intersects the surface at grazing incidence. Carbon self-sputtering dominates the erosion source, whereas RF-accelerated D + ions contribute approximately 1% of the total gross erosion. The smaller-gap operating scenario exhibits substantially stronger gross erosion, enhanced local re-deposition (∼12%), and a larger confined carbon inventory owing to increased plasma accessibility and broader RF sheath coverage. Comparison with available DIII-D measurements shows no distinct change in the global carbon signal that correlates with the helicon RF pulse, consistent with the simulations indicating that the helicon-generated carbon source remains small compared with the existing background carbon inventory under the present graphite-wall operating conditions. These results demonstrate the capability of STRIPE to integrate RF sheath modeling, plasma transport, surface interaction physics, and three-dimensional impurity transport for the interpretation of helicon-induced PMIs. The study further identifies the principal sources of modeling uncertainty, including grazing-angle RF sheath physics, slow-wave resolution, plasma-background extrapolation, and trace-impurity transport assumptions, providing a framework for future validation and model development.

Kumar, Atul [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiresolution GPC-Structured Control of a Single-Loop Cold-Flow Chemical Looping Testbed

Chemical looping is a near-zero emission process for generating power from coal. It is based on a multi-phase gas-solid flow and has extremely challenging nonlinear, multi-scale dynamics with jumps, producing large dynamic model uncertainty, which renders traditional robust control techniques, such as linear parameter varying H ∞ design, largely inapplicable. This process complexity is addressed in the present work through the temporal and the spatiotemporal multiresolution modeling along with the corresponding model-based control laws. Namely, the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input model structure, nonlinear in the wavelet basis, but linear in parameters, is used to identify the dominant temporal chemical looping process dynamics. The control inputs and the wavelet model parameters are calculated by optimizing a quadratic cost function using a gradient descent method. The respective identification and tracking error convergence of the proposed self-tuning identification and control schemes, the latter using the unconstrained generalized predictive control structure, is separately ascertained through the Lyapunov stability theorem. The rate constraint on the control signal in the temporal control law is then imposed and the control topology is augmented by an additional control loop with self-tuning deadbeat controller which uses the spatiotemporal wavelet riser dynamics representation. The novelty of this work is three-fold: (1) developing the self-tuning controller design methodology that consists in embedding the real-time tunable temporal highly nonlinear, but linearly parametrizable, multiresolution system representations into the classical rate-constrained generalized predictive quadratic optimal control structure, (2) augmenting the temporal multiresolution loop by a more complex spatiotemporal multiresolution self-tuning deadbeat control loop, and (3) demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in producing fast recursive real-time algorithms for controlling highly uncertain nonlinear multiscale processes. The latter is shown through the data from the implemented temporal and augmented spatiotemporal solutions of a difficult chemical looping cold flow tracking control problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experiments and simulations of isochorically heated warm dense carbon foam at the Texas Petawatt Laser

An experimental and simulation study of warm dense carbon foams at ambient density (n e ~10 21 cm –3 ) is presented. This study of isochorically heated foams is motivated by their potential application in carbon-atmosphere white-dwarf envelopes, where there are modeling uncertainties due to the equation of state. The foams are heated on an approximately picosecond time scale with a laser-accelerated proton beam. The cooling and expansion of the heated foams can be modeled with appropriately initialized radiation-hydrodynamics codes; xRAGE code is used in this work. The primary experimental diagnostic is the streaked optical pyrometer, which images a narrow band of radiation from the rear surface of the heated material. Presented are xRAGE modeling results for both solid aluminum targets and carbonized resorcinol-formaldehyde foam targets, showing that the foam appears to cool slowly on the pyrometer because of partial transparency. So that simulations of cooling foam are processed properly, it is necessary to account for finite optical depth in the photosphere calculation, and the methods for performing that calculation are presented in depth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twin Enabling Technologies for Online Condition Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plant Components

Online condition monitoring is an area of active research that may enable improved scheduling, maintenance, and safety of nuclear power plant components, reducing unnecessary derate while simultaneously improving operational capacity. Digital twins are one avenue to conduct online condition monitoring and are currently being explored by national laboratories and universities alike. Digital twins for online condition monitoring are, in essence, state concurrent models that emulate a physical process which predicts a parameter and compares it against a measured value. However, digital twins may also provide additional insights by combining and interpreting various sources of information. These insights may be used for preventative maintenance scheduling optimization or early fault detection and are projected to be valuable for meeting requirements under 10 CFR 50.55a. However, digital twin technologies are still under significant development; quantifying model uncertainties, improving unique fault identification, and multimodal sensor fusion are some areas under investigation. Therefore, in this work, we discuss and review the various enabling technologies, in the form of advanced sensors, instrumentation, and modelling methods, that may be used to implement and enhance digital twins for online condition monitoring. A potential use case for pump-motors is presented to demonstrate how these various pieces of enabling digital twin technologies may integrated together for online condition monitoring. Challenges and opportunities associated with the pump-motor digital twin enabling technologies are also identified and discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗