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At least 271 records · Page 15

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of a CFD Commercial Package to the Modeling of Acoustic Wave Propagation in Bubbly-Liquid Column

This document reports on the considerations and development of an initial computational model based on the first principles for predicting acoustic propagation in a wellbore based on a logging-while-drilling (LWD) tool. This tool could be used to create a large database of simulated signals mimicking gas-influx-while-drilling events (so-called “kicks”). While other logging techniques, such as electrical resistivity and bulk density, are available in LWD tools, the acoustic logging method was identified in a complementary experimental endeavor as the most appropriate for early kick detection due to its high sensitivity to the presence of gas in liquids.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A multifidelity Bayesian optimization method for inertial confinement fusion design

Due to their cost, experiments for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) heavily rely on numerical simulations to guide design. As simulation technology progresses, so too can the fidelity of models used to plan for new experiments. However, these high-fidelity models are by themselves insufficient for optimal experimental design, because their computational cost remains too high to efficiently and effectively explore the numerous parameters required to describe a typical experiment. Therefore, traditionally, ICF design has relied on low-fidelity modeling to initially identify potentially interesting design regions, which are then subsequently explored via selected high-fidelity modeling. In this paper, we demonstrate that this two-step approach can be insufficient: even for simple design problems, a two-step optimization strategy can lead high-fidelity searching toward incorrect regions and consequently waste computational resources on parameter regimes far away from the true optimal solution. We reveal that a primary cause of this behavior in ICF design problems is the presence of low-fidelity optima in different regions of the parameter space far away from high-fidelity optima. To address this issue, we propose an iterative multifidelity Bayesian optimization method based on Gaussian Process Regression that leverages both low- and high-fidelity models simultaneously. We demonstrate, using both two- and eight-dimensional ICF test problems, that our algorithm can effectively utilize both low-fidelity and high-fidelity models to refine the designs. This approach proves to be more efficient than relying solely on high-fidelity modeling for optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Initial Evaluation of Nek-2P for Modeling of Liquid Metal Heat Pipes

A heat pipe is two-phase heat transfer device which relies on surface tension and capillary pressure to provide a very efficient heat transfer mechanism. Currently, there is interest in designing micro nuclear power reactors using high temperature heat pipes to provide totally passive cooling. To support this, heat pipe simulation capabilities must be developed. The spectral element multiphase CFD code, Nek-2P is being considered for use in providing high-fidelity results which will drive the development of reduced order models. This work is focused on an initial evaluation of the capabilities of Nek-2P to meet this goal. The two-fluid model is used in Nek-2P along with a set of closure models formulated for simulating heat pipes. Specifically, an interfacial force modeling the surface tension effect in the pores of the wick is included. Initial simulations using this model have been performed for conditions approaching nominal values for a sodium heat pipe. Nek-2P is able to qualitatively reproduce the expected results for the volume fraction, velocity, and pressure distributions with reasonable results for the phasic temperatures. This indicates the viability of using Nek-2P to perform more in-depth investigations. However, significant quantitative differences are noted between results and conditions typical of a sodium heat pipe. These differences in results are expected to diminish as the differences between the simulated conditions and the target conditions decreases. Additionally, challenges in simulating heat pipes with Nek-2P have been identified. Future work will focus on addressing these challenges and performing investigations of the operational limits of sodium heat pipes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effects of local order parameter dependent transport coefficient in diblock copolymers under applied electric fields

In this work, we present an approach for constructing thermodynamically consistent time-dependent models relevant to thin films of diblock copolymers in applied electric fields. The approach is based on the principles of linear irreversible thermodynamics, and, in this work, it is applied to study the effects of electric fields on thin films of incompressible diblock copolymers. Enforcement of local incompressibility constraint at all times leads to a local order parameter dependent transport coefficient in the model for the diblock copolymers. The dependence of the transport coefficient on the local order parameter is used to relate it with the diffusion constant of Rouse chains and leads to sensitivity of the model to initial conditions. In addition, transient behavior is found to be affected when compared with an ad hoc model assuming a constant transport coefficient. Numerical results such as electric field induced alignment of lamellae domains due to the field are found to be in qualitative agreement with experiments. This approach opens up a systematic way of developing kinetic models for simulating effects of electrolytes added to thin films containing diblock copolymers in the presence of applied electric fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Host-Pathogen Interactions in the Context of the Microenvironment: Three-Dimensional Cell Culture Comes of Age

Tissues and organs provide the structural and biochemical landscapes upon which microbial pathogens and commensals function to regulate health and disease. While flat two-dimensional (2-D) monolayers composed of a single cell type have provided important insight into understanding host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease mechanisms, these reductionist models lack many essential features present in the native host microenvironment that are known to regulate infection, including three-dimensional (3-D) architecture, multicellular complexity, commensal microbiota, gas exchange and nutrient gradients, and physiologically relevant biomechanical forces (e.g., fluid shear, stretch, compression). Here, a major challenge in tissue engineering for infectious disease research is recreating this dynamic 3-D microenvironment (biological, chemical, and physical/mechanical) to more accurately model the initiation and progression of host-pathogen interactions in the laboratory. Here we review selected 3-D models of human intestinal mucosa, which represent a major portal of entry for infectious pathogens and an important niche for commensal microbiota. We highlight seminal studies that have used these models to interrogate host-pathogen interactions and infectious disease mechanisms, and we present this literature in the appropriate historical context. Models discussed include 3-D organotypic cultures engineered in the rotating wall vessel (RWV) bioreactor, extracellular matrix (ECM)-embedded/organoid models, and organ-on-a-chip (OAC) models. Collectively, these technologies provide a more physiologically relevant and predictive framework for investigating infectious disease mechanisms and antimicrobial therapies at the intersection of the host, microbe, and their local microenvironments.

3-D↗

Finite deformation implementation of a mixed-mode single-integral type cohesive zone with reorienting surfaces of separation

To model material ductile failure and crack propagation, cohesive zone elements can be embedded along potential fracture paths in a finite element simulation. When damage criteria are met, elements in the mesh decohere, simulating the formation and propagation of a crack. In this paper, we present a novel computational algorithm based on finite deformation theory, essential to modeling crack initiation and growth in solids undergoing large deformations. This new algorithm was formulated within a Lagrangian frame of reference to extend previous cohesive zone algorithms to include modeling crack growth in finite deformation contexts. The local coordinate system, necessary for defining an embedded cohesive zone, is constructed based upon the current configuration and is updated within the nonlinear iteration process, thereby resulting in the convergence of the solution for a growing crack in a large deformation quasi-static setting. The model’s accuracy was demonstrated by comparing finite element model simulation results with the analytic case of a constant surface separation, as shown in the verification examples. The power and efficacy of the algorithm to capture large deformations during crack growth were then demonstrated with a double cantilever beam example case. It indicates that the model can be applied to a variety of physical circumstances for predicting crack initiation and growth with delamination and fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modification of the MTS model for high strain-rate behavior of TI-6AL-4V

The Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) model provides excellent predictive capabilities for the material constitutive response for a wide range of temperatures and strain rates. However, the MTS model fails to capture the rapidly increasing yield stress at high strain rate behavior as the deformation controlling mechanism transitions from thermal activation to drag mechanisms, only capturing the linear behavior. Further, the model typically over predicts the flow stress behavior at yield and post yield due to its use of a constant work hardening rate parameter derived from the stress–strain response at constant saturation stress. An alternative approach to fitting portions of the MTS model is investigated and mathematical models are developed to address these issues. The results show that with appropriate experimental data, the mechanical threshold stress and work hardening rate parameters within the MTS model can quite easily and accurately be modified to extend applicability to high strain rate behavior and more accurately model the initial flow stress behavior at early work hardening rates without modification of the functions core to the MTS model itself.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Field Aging Testbed for Behind-the-Meter PV + Energy Storage

Small DC-coupled battery test systems are deployed at NREL to evaluate capacity fade models and report on performance parameters such as round-trip efficiency under indoor and outdoor deployment scenarios. Initial commercial battery products include LG Chem RESU Lithium-ion and Avalon vanadium-redox flow batteries. Adapting indoor lab-scale test methods to outdoor systems has challenges, including maintaining constant temperature and fully controlling batteries through standard discharge curves. Initial measurements show the Lithium Ion battery systems performing within expectation, near 85% round-trip efficiency. Initial lifetime modeling and measurements indicate battery capacity may degrade by 20%-35% over 10 years.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Determining the impacts of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on cerebral oxygenation using a one-dimensional blood flow simulator

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a mechanical system that provides rapid and short-term support for patients with cardiac failure. In many patients, pulmonary function is also impaired, resulting in poorly-oxygenated cardiac outflow competing against well-oxygenated VA-ECMO outflow, a condition known as North-South syndrome. North-South syndrome is a primary concern because of its potential to cause cerebral hypoxia, which has a critical influence on neurological complications often seen in this patient population. In order to reduce ischemic neurological complications, it is important to understand how clinical decisions regarding VA-ECMO parameters influence blood oxygenation. In our work, we studied the impacts of flow rate and cannulation site on oxygenation using a one-dimensional (1D) model to simulate blood flow. Our model was initially tested by comparing blood flow results to those observed from experimental work in VA-ECMO patients. The 1D model was combined with a two-phase flow model to simulate oxygenation. Additionally, the influence of various other clinician-tunable parameters on oxygenation in the common carotid arteries (CCAs) were tested, including, blood viscosity, cannula position within the insertion artery, heart rate, and systemic vascular resistance (SVR), as well as geometrical changes such as arterial radius and length. Our results indicated that blood oxygenation to the brain strongly depended on the cannula insertion site and the VA-ECMO flow rate with a weaker but potentially significant dependence on arterial radius. During femoral cannulation, VA-ECMO flow rates greater than ~4.9 L/min were needed to perfuse the CCAs. However, axillary and central cannulation began to perfuse the CCAs at significantly lower flow (~1 L/min). These results may help explain the incidence of cerebral hypoxia in this patient population and the common need to change cannulation strategies during treatment to address this clinical problem. While this work describes patient-averaged results, determining these relationships between VA-ECMO parameters and cerebral hypoxia is an important step towards future work to develop patient-specific models that clinicians can use to improve outcomes.

1D blood flow↗

Finite element analyses of single particle crushing tests incorporating computed tomography imaging and damage mechanics

Fracture of individual grains within a granular assembly affect the strength and deformation behavior of granular materials under large stress states. Interparticle forces, leading to contact stresses and ultimately fracture initiation, are influenced by particle morphology. A numerical method that incorporates both particle fracture and morphology can provide a more accurate model of a granular material’s macro-scale response. This research investigates an approach to modeling fracture initiation and propagation within individual grains, utilizing high resolution X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging to consider grain morphology and an explicit finite element code optimized for high performance computing which incorporates damage mechanics. Using precisely measured force-displacement curves from single particle crushing tests of manufactured quartz spheres, the method is validated, and the effects of fracture properties on grain fragmentation are determined. This approach is then used to simulate single particle crushing of Ottawa sand, with grain morphology incorporated through discretized CT images. Here the effect of grain orientation on the force and applied displacement at catastrophic splitting is also explored. The proposed discrete particle based finite element framework can be applied to modeling granular assemblies, considering the effect of individual particle shape and fracture on the assembly’s deformation response through well calibrated numerical simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Downstream Separation of Formic Acid with Anion-Exchange Resin from Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Conversion: Adsorption, Kinetics, and Equilibrium Modeling

The electrocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) that produces liquid formic acid (FA) is one potential route to minimize the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere by utilizing CO 2 as a feedstock. However, one of the main disadvantages of this route is the high energy demand required for purification through conventional distillation. This method of purification has been shown to result in a large carbon footprint in life-cycle analysis (LCA). Therefore, finding an alternative purification technique that can integrate with an electrochemical CO 2 RR process with the potential to lower the carbon footprint would be of great interest. Under the experimental conditions of the CO 2 RR, FA remains in its basic form as the formate anion in the catholyte. Anion exchange resins with their basic properties can separate the formate anion from the catholyte mixture as an alternative to energy intensive distillation. In this work, three anion exchange resins with increasing basicity order: Amberlite IRA-96 < Amberlite IRA-910 < Ambersep 900 are tested to separate FA in the presence of aqueous solution of potassium bicarbonate catholyte with varying levels of resin and FA. Kinetics and equilibrium studies data for the FA adsorption are interpreted using several kinetics and isotherm models. The kinetics data fit well with a pseudo-first-order model at high initial FA concentrations and a pseudo-second-order model at low initial FA concentrations. The experimental data can be best explained with the Freundlich isotherm model. The fitted results show that strongly basic Ambersep 900 is more effective at separating FA, with a maximum adsorption capacity of 336.7 mg/g compared to Amberlite IRA-96 (275.2 mg/g) and Amberlite IRA-910 (209.2 mg/g) in neutral water. However, weakly basic Amberlite IRA-96 (110.8 mg/g) can separate FA more efficiently from potassium bicarbonate catholyte than Amberlite IRA-910 (99.9 mg/g) and Ambersep 900 (40.0 mg/g). As a result, competitive adsorption occurs in the presence of potassium bicarbonate catholyte, but the formic acid adsorption capacity is still sufficient for adequate separation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Development of Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS): Surrogate Plant-level Modeling and Control Algorithms Integration

This report discusses progress on the modeling and integration task as part of the development of Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS). What follows is a discussion of the software tools used to develop a surrogate microreactor plant-level model, MACS module development, and a summary of the findings from integration with a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setup at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Oak Ridge National Laboratory worked with INL to understand available hardware at INL (such as existing control platforms). With this information and using a preliminary framework for MACS with software interfaces defined, surrogate models and initial automated control algorithms were created for integration into the hardware to provide a HIL demonstration platform for MACS. Available reduced order reactor models that leverage existing microreactor neutronics and thermal hydraulics models have been integrated in the surrogate plant-level model. The surrogate model has been evaluated for sensitivity of all parameters and the MACS software modules (including the surrogate model) have been demonstrated to interact with the hardware. The integration, however, pointed to the need for further improvements to the framework—and specifically improvements to the interfaces to ensure that the HIL simulator is capable of longer-term stable operation with MACS in the loop. These improvements will be the focus of future research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift

Since near-term predictions of present-day climate are controlled by both initial condition predictability and boundary condition predictability, initialized prediction experiments aim to augment the external-forcing-related predictability realized in uninitialized projections with initial-condition-related predictability by appropriate observation-based initialization. However, and notwithstanding the considerable effort expended in finding such “good” initial states, a striking feature of current, state-of-the-art, initialized decadal hindcasts is their tendency to quickly drift away from the initialized state, with attendant loss of skill. We derive a dynamical model for such drift, and after validating it we show that including a recalibrated version of the model in a postprocessing framework is able to significantly augment the skill of initialized predictions beyond that achieved by a use of current techniques of postprocessing alone. We also show that the new methodology provides further crucial insights into issues related to initialized predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multiphysics Proxy Modeling for CCS [Slides]

In a presentation for the GEM Lab Research Group Meeting, the motivation, goals, methods, and results of the study were described. The study's overall goal is to develop an initial proxy model for the leakage of CO 2 from a deep saline aquifer through a fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗