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At least 271 records · Page 15

Description and Evaluation of Brown Carbon Representation in GISS ModelE

Brown carbon (BrC) is an absorbing organic aerosol primarily emitted by the combustion of biomass and biofuel. While field and laboratory studies have shown that BrC exhibits light absorption unique from black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, the radiative forcing of BrC is still highly uncertain. We present the implementation of BrC in the One-Moment Aerosol (OMA) module of the GISS ModelE ESM. Primary BrC is emitted from biomass burning with a range of optical properties and is processed through a unique chemical aging scheme. Brown secondary organic aerosols (SOA), formed from several biogenic and anthropogenic precursors, are also represented. Several simulations–with varied emissions, optical properties, and chemistry–have been run to assess the sensitivity of this BrC implementation within ModelE. Initial results show a peak in BrC concentrations near the tropopause, around 200 mb. As BC aerosols do not reach this height in ModelE, this suggests a new source of absorption in the upper troposphere. Organic aerosol representation can be further evaluated through comparison to AERONET retrieval data of BrC mass and optical depth, and total aerosol optical depth.

Brown carbon↗

Optimizing flow condensation models for next-generation refrigerants in axial micro-fin aluminum tubes

To support the transition to next-generation refrigerants, accurate modelling of heat transfer and pressure drop is essential for designing efficient heat exchangers. Current models, largely based on traditional refrigerants and unexpanded micro-fin tubes, may not reliably predict performance for new refrigerants and expanded micro-fin geometries. This study evaluates four condensation models using experimental data for six A2L refrigerants: R-32, R-454B, R-454C, R-455A, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E). For heat transfer models, the Han and Lee (2005) model initially yields the best accuracy (mean absolute Deviation, MAD = 22.1%). To further improve predictions, a correction factor reduces the Cavallini et al. (2009) model’s MAD from 68.2% to 15.4%, while optimization of the Kedzierski and Goncalves (1997) model achieves a MAD of 13.1%. For pressure drop, the Cavallini et al. (1997) model proves most accurate (MAD = 6.4%), with the simpler Haraguchi et al. (1993) model also effective (MAD = 9.4%). Keywords: Flow condensation models, heat transfer coefficient, frictional pressure drop, next-generation refrigerants, aluminum micro-fin tubes

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

Modeling of Damage Initiation and Progression in a SiC/SiC Woven Ceramic Matrix Composite

The goal of an ongoing project at NASA Glenn is to investigate the effects of the complex microstructure of a woven ceramic matrix composite and its variability on the effective properties and the durability of the material. Detailed analysis of these complex microstructures may provide clues for the material scientists who `design the material? or to structural analysts and designers who `design with the material? regarding damage initiation and damage propagation. A model material system, specifically a five-harness satin weave architecture CVI SiC/SiC composite composed of Sylramic-iBN fibers and a SiC matrix, has been analyzed. Specimens of the material were serially sectioned and polished to capture the detailed images of fiber tows, matrix and porosity. Open source analysis tools were used to isolate various constituents and finite elements models were then generated from simplified models of those images. Detailed finite element analyses were performed that examine how the variability in the local microstructure affected the macroscopic behavior as well as the local damage initiation and progression. Results indicate that the locations where damage initiated and propagated is linked to specific microstructural features.

Mital, Subodh K.↗

The collapse and three-dimensional explosion of three-dimensional massive-star supernova progenitor models

ABSTRACT The explosion outcome and diagnostics of core-collapse supernovae depend sensitively on the nature of the stellar progenitor, but most studies to date have focused exclusively on one-dimensional, spherically symmetric massive star progenitors. We present some of the first core-collapse supernovae simulations of three-dimensional massive star supernovae progenitors, a 12.5- and a 15-M⊙ model, evolved in three dimensions from collapse to bounce through explosion with the radiation-hydrodynamic code fornax. We compare the results using those starting from three-dimensional progenitors to three-dimensional simulations of spherically symmetric, one-dimensional progenitors of the same mass. We find that the models evolved in three dimensions during the final stages of massive star evolution are more prone to explosion. The turbulence arising in these multidimensional initial models serves as seed turbulence that promotes shock revival. Detection of gravitational waves and neutrinos signals could reveal signatures of pre-bounce turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Random forest prediction of crystal structure from electron diffraction patterns incorporating multiple scattering

Diffraction is the most common method to solve for unknown or partially known crystal structures. However, it remains a challenge to determine the crystal structure of a new material that may have nanoscale size or heterogeneities. Here, in this study, we train an architecture of hierarchical random forest models capable of predicting the crystal system, space group, and lattice parameters from one or more unknown two-dimensional electron diffraction patterns. Our initial model correctly identifies the crystal system of a simulated electron diffraction pattern from a 20-nm-thick specimen of arbitrary orientation 67% of the time. We achieve a topline accuracy of 79% when aggregating predictions from ten patterns of the same material but different zone axes. The space group and lattice predictions range from 70% to 90% accuracy and median errors of 0.01-0.5Å, respectively, for cubic, hexagonal, trigonal, and tetragonal crystal systems while being less reliable on orthorhombic and monoclinic systems. We apply this architecture to a four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy scan of gold nanoparticles, where it accurately predicts the crystal structure and lattice constants. These random forest models can be used to significantly accelerate the analysis of electron diffraction patterns, particularly in the case of unknown crystal structures. Additionally, due to the speed of inference, these models could be integrated into live transmission electron microscopy experiments, allowing real-Time labeling of a specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

On the stability of Schwarzschild's triaxial galaxy model

The numerical model for a triaxial galaxy constructed by Schwartzschild (1979) has been tested by means of fully self-consistent three-dimensional n-body numerical experiments that use a representation of this model to start the integration. The integration, study models, initial load, and correcting potential of the experiment are detailed. Preliminary checks included density values, potential values, and integration in potential of an ideal model. The results showed some particle loss and no significant shape change. The model is rugged and robust, and no growing disturbances with growth rate in excess of 0.5 per crossing time could be detected. Runs were done at 50 percent excess halo and with tube orbits reversed.

Smith, B. F.↗

A comparison of observed and forecast energetics over North America

The observed kinetic energy balance is calculated over North America and compared with that computed from forecast fields for the 13-15 January 1979 cyclone. The FGGE upper-air rawinsonde network serves as the observational database while the forecast energetics are derived from a numerical integration with the GLAS fourth-order general circulation model initialized at 00 GMT 13 January. Maps of the observed and predicted kinetic energy and eddy conversion are in good qualitative agreement, although the model eddy conversion tends to be 2 to 3 times stronger than the observed values. Both the forecast and observations exhibit the lower and upper tropospheric maxima in vertical profiles of kinetic energy generation and dissipation typically found in cyclonic disturbances. An interesting time lag is noted in the observational analysis with the maximum observed kinetic energy occurring 12 h later than the maximum eddy conversion over the same region.

Baker, W. E.↗

Fuel Performance Modeling Plan to Support the Advance Gas Reactor Program

This report documents the current status of the fuel performance modeling initiative to support the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program in the development of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles. A brief summary of the modeling codes that have been developed to support TRISO modeling is included along with a summary of the behavior of fuel particles during irradiation and the modeling used to capture these effects. In addition, this report identifies further modeling and material property needs that have been identified for further development based on experience from previously performed AGR experiments. In general, the remaining activities to support fuel performance modeling for the AGR program include continued AGR experiment support for AGR-3/4 and AGR-5/6/7 as well as modeling improvements identified throughout the course of the program. These modeling improvements can be summarized as the following: Fission product transport Thermomechanical particle behavior Additional modeling needs may be identified during the processing the data collected during the AGR post-irradiation examination (PIE) campaign and may lead to further modeling improvements that are not included in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. Each has benefited from 3-dimensional analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive and complete understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Recent efforts have been undertaken to update the LDIS through the formal tasking process of NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit. The goals include upgrading LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporating new sources of observational data, and making adjustments to shell scripts written to govern the system. A series of scripts run a complete modeling system consisting of the preprocessing step, the main model integration, and the post-processing step. The preprocessing step prepares the terrain, surface characteristics data sets, and the objective analysis for model initialization. Data ingested through ADAS include (but are not limited to) Level II Weather Surveillance Radar- 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from six Florida radars, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) visible and infrared satellite imagery, surface and upper air observations throughout Florida from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division/Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS), as well as the Kennedy Space Center ICape Canaveral Air Force Station wind tower network. The scripts provide NWS MLB and SMG with several options for setting a desirable runtime configuration of the LDIS to account for adjustments in grid spacing, domain location, choice of observational data sources, and selection of background model fields, among others. The utility of an improved LDIS will be demonstrated through postanalysis warm and cool season case studies that compare high-resolution model output with and without the ADAS analyses. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Gluonic hot spot initial conditions in heavy-ion collisions

The initial conditions in heavy-ion collisions are calculated in many different frameworks. The importance of nucleon position fluctuations within the nucleus and subnucleon structure has been established when modeling initial conditions for input to hydrodynamic calculations. However, there remain outstanding puzzles regarding these initial conditions, including the measurement of the near equivalence of the elliptical v 2 and triangular v 3 flow coefficients in ultracentral 0–1% Pb + Pb collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Recently a calculation termed magma incorporating gluonic hot spots via two-point correlators in the color glass condensate framework, and no nucleons, provided a simultaneous match to these flow coefficients measured by the ATLAS experiment, including in ultracentral 0–1% collisions. Our calculations reveal that the magma initial conditions do not describe the experimental data when run through full hydrodynamic sonic simulations or when the hot spots from one nucleus resolve hot spots from the other nucleus, as predicted in the color glass condensate framework. Finally, we also explore alternative initial condition calculations and discuss their implications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Does provable absence of barren plateaus imply classical simulability?

A large amount of effort has recently been put into understanding the barren plateau phenomenon. In this perspective article, we face the increasingly loud elephant in the room and ask a question that has been hinted at by many but not explicitly addressed: Can the structure that allows one to avoid barren plateaus also be leveraged to efficiently simulate the loss classically? We collect evidence-on a case-by-case basis-that many commonly used models whose loss landscapes avoid barren plateaus can also admit classical simulation, provided that one can collect some classical data from quantum devices during an initial data acquisition phase. This follows from the observation that barren plateaus result from a curse of dimensionality, and that current approaches for solving them end up encoding the problem into some small, classically simulable, subspaces. Thus, while stressing that quantum computers can be essential for collecting data, our analysis sheds doubt on the information processing capabilities of many parametrized quantum circuits with provably barren plateau-free landscapes. We end by discussing the (many) caveats in our arguments including the limitations of average case arguments, the role of smart initializations, models that fall outside our assumptions, the potential for provably superpolynomial advantages and the possibility that, once larger devices become available, parametrized quantum circuits could heuristically outperform our analytic expectations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dimorphos’s Material Properties and Estimates of Crater Size from the DART Impact

On 2022 September 26, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft intentionally collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the binary asteroid system 65803 Didymos. This collision provided the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor for planetary defense. Images from DART’s DRACO camera revealed Dimorphos to be an oblate spheroid covered in boulders of varying sizes and shapes. Very little was known about Dimorphos prior to DART’s impact, including its shape, structure, and material properties. Approach observations and those following the DART impact have provided crucial knowledge that narrows the parameter space relevant to modeling the impact into Dimorphos. Here we present the results of a suite of hydrocode simulations of the DART impact on Dimorphos. Despite remaining uncertainties, initial models of DART’s kinetic impact provide important information about the results of DART (e.g., potential crater size and morphology, ejecta mass) and the properties of Dimorphos. Simulations here suggest that Dimorphos has near-surface strength ranging from a few Pascals to tens of kPa, which corresponds to crater sizes of ~40–60 m. Simulated crater sizes provide a crucial comparison metric for the European Space Agency Hera mission when it arrives at the Didymos system. Hera’s measurement of crater size in combination with measurement of Dimorphos’s mass will allow us to assess our simulations and provide the information needed to make the DART impact experiment both the first test of a planetary defense mitigation mission and the first full-scale planetary defense simulation validation exercise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of UTLS Carbon Monoxide Simulations in GMI and GEOS-Chem Chemical Transport Models using Aura MLS Observations

This study evaluates the distribution and variation of carbon monoxide (CO) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during 2004-2012 as simulated by two chemical transport models, using the latest version of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations. The simulated spatial distributions, temporal variations and vertical transport of CO in the UTLS region are compared with those observed by MLS. We also investigate the impact of surface emissions and deep convection on CO concentrations in the UTLS over different regions, using both model simulations and MLS observations. Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and GEOS-Chem simulations of UTLS CO both show similar spatial distributions to observations. The global mean CO values simulated by both models agree with MLS observations at 215 and 147 hPa, but are significantly underestimated by more than 40% at 100 hPa. In addition, the models underestimate the peak CO values by up to 70% at 100 hPa, 60% at 147 hPa and 40% at 215 hPa, with GEOS-Chem generally simulating more CO at 100 hPa and less CO at 215 hPa than GMI. The seasonal distributions of CO simulated by both models are in better agreement with MLS in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with disagreements between model and observations over enhanced CO regions such as southern Africa. The simulated vertical transport of CO shows better agreement with MLS in the tropics and the SH subtropics than the NH subtropics. We also examine regional variations in the relationships among surface CO emission, convection and UTLS CO concentrations. The two models exhibit emission-convection- CO relationships similar to those observed by MLS over the tropics and some regions with enhanced UTLS CO.

spatial distribution↗

Enhancing Automotive Intrusion Detection Through Multi-Modal Fusion: A CAN FD-LiDAR Approach

As vehicles become smarter and more autonomous, they increasingly depend on advanced sensors and communication technologies to operate securely. However, such growing dependence on technology—whether it’s CAN (Controller Area Network) for internal communication or LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for sensing the world around them—also expands the attack surface for the types of cyber attacks. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) typically monitor these systems in isolation, limiting their ability to detect sophisticated, crosssystem attacks. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion approach that combines real-world CAN FD signals (from the HCRL dataset) with LiDAR features (from the nuScenes dataset) to enhance attack detection. Our method employs a twostage ensemble approach. Calibrated XGBoost and LightGBM models initially process CAN FD (Fuzzing Data) and LiDAR data independently, detecting timing anomalies and space abnormalities. They are subsequently logarithmically combined with a logistic regression meta-model along with 17 engineered features capturing cross-modal behavior, prediction conflicts, and nonlinear interactions. This approach achieves an AUC of 0.87 and an F1-score of 0.82, surpassing single-modality baselines and early fusion methods, at merely 2 ms inference latency. Compared with deep learning competitors, it is 3 times more efficient, providing a lightweight, interpretable, and real time solution to automotive cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data

In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

Temperature Dependent Modal Test/Analysis Correlation of X-34 Fastrac Composite Rocket Nozzle

A unique high temperature modal test and model correlation/update program has been performed on the composite nozzle of the FASTRAC engine for the NASA X-34 Reusable Launch Vehicle. The program was required to provide an accurate high temperature model of the nozzle for incorporation into the engine system structural dynamics model for loads calculation; this model is significantly different from the ambient case due to the large decrease in composite stiffness properties due to heating. The high-temperature modal test was performed during a hot-fire test of the nozzle. Previously, a series of high fidelity modal tests and finite element model correlation of the nozzle in a free-free configuration had been performed. This model was then attached to a modal-test verified model of the engine hot-fire test stand and the ambient system mode shapes were identified. A reduced set of accelerometers was then attached to the nozzle, the engine fired full-duration, and the frequency peaks corresponding to the ambient nozzle modes individually isolated and tracked as they decreased during the test. To update the finite-element model of the nozzle to these frequency curves, the percentage differences of the anisotropic composite moduli due to temperature variation from ambient, which had been used in the initial modeling and which were obtained by small sample coupon testing, were multiplied by an iteratively determined constant factor. These new properties were used to create high-temperature nozzle models corresponding to 10 second engine operation increments and tied into the engine system model for loads determination.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗