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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Optical calibration of the SNO+ detector in the water phase with deployed sources

SNO+ is a large-scale liquid scintillator experiment with the primary goal of searching for neutrinoless double beta decay, and is located approximately 2 km underground in SNOLAB, Sudbury, Canada. The detector acquired data for two years as a pure water Cherenkov detector, starting in May 2017. During this period, the optical properties of the detector were measured in situ using a deployed light diffusing sphere, with the goal of improving the detector model and the energy response systematic uncertainties. The measured parameters included the water attenuation coefficients, effective attenuation coefficients for the acrylic vessel, and the angular response of the photomultiplier tubes and their surrounding light concentrators, all across different wavelengths. Finally, the calibrated detector model was validated using a deployed tagged gamma source, which showed a 0.6% variation in energy scale across the primary target volume.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the Λ hyperon lifetime

A new, more precise measurement of the Λ hyperon lifetime is performed using a large data sample of Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$=5.02 TeV with ALICE. The Λ and $\bar{Λ}$ hyperons are reconstructed at midrapidity using their two-body weak decay channel Λ→p+π - and $\bar{Λ}$→$\bar{p}$+π + . The measured value of the Λ lifetime is τ Λ =[261.07±0.37(stat.)±0.72(syst.)] ps. The relative difference between the lifetime of Λ and $\bar{Λ}$, which represents an important test of CPT invariance in the strangeness sector, is also measured. The obtained value (τ Λ -τ $\bar{Λ}$ )/τ Λ =0.0013±0.0028(stat.)±0.0021(syst.) is consistent with zero within the uncertainties. Both measurements of the Λ hyperon lifetime and of the relative difference between τ Λ and τ $\bar{Λ}$ are in agreement with the corresponding world averages of the Particle Data Group and about a factor of three more precise.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian optimal experimental design for constitutive model calibration

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high/consequence engineering decisions, which necessitates a high confidence in the calibration of and predictions from complex material models. However, the calibration and validation of material models is often a discrete, multi-stage process that is decoupled from material characterization activities, which means the data collected does not always align with the data that is needed. To address this issue, an integrated workflow for delivering an enhanced characterization and calibration procedure—Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC)—is introduced and demonstrated. Further, this framework leverages Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED), which creates a line of communication between model calibration needs and data collection capabilities in order to optimize the information content gathered from the experiments for model calibration. Eventually, the ICC framework will be used in quasi real-time to actively control experiments of complex specimens for the calibration of a high-fidelity material model. This work presents the critical first piece of algorithm development and a demonstration in determining the optimal load path of a cruciform specimen with simulated data. Calibration results, obtained via Bayesian inference, from the integrated ICC approach are compared to calibrations performed by choosing the load path a priori based on human intuition, as is traditionally done. The calibration results are communicated through parameter uncertainties which are propagated to the model output space (i.e. stress–strain). In these exemplar problems, data generated within the ICC framework resulted in calibrated model parameters with reduced measures of uncertainty compared to the traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effect of relative humidity on eddy covariance latent heat flux measurements and its implication for partitioning into transpiration and evaporation

While the eddy covariance (EC) technique is a well-established method for measuring water fluxes (i.e., evaporation or 'evapotranspiration’, ET), the measurement is susceptible to many uncertainties. One such issue is the potential underestimation of ET when relative humidity (RH) is high (> 70%), due to low-pass filtering with some EC systems. Yet, this underestimation for different types of EC systems (e.g. open-path or closed-path sensors) has not been characterized for synthesis datasets such as the widely used FLUXNET2015 dataset. Here, we assess the RH-associated underestimation of latent heat fluxes (LE, or ET) from different EC systems for 163 sites in the FLUXNET2015 dataset. We found that the LE underestimation is most apparent during hours when RH is higher than 70%, predominantly observed at sites using closed-path EC systems, but the extent of the LE underestimation is highly site-specific. We then propose a machine learning based method to correct for this underestimation, and compare it to two energy balance closure based LE correction approaches (Bowen ratio correction, BRC, and attributing all errors to LE). Our correction increases LE by 189% for closed-path sites at high RH (> 90%), while BRC increases LE by around 30% for all RH conditions. Additionally, we assess the influence of these corrections on ET-based transpiration (T) estimates using two different ET partitioning methods. Results show opposite responses (increasing vs. slightly decreasing T-to-ET ratios, T/ET) between the two methods when comparing T based on corrected and uncorrected LE. Overall, our results demonstrate the existence of a high RH bias in water fluxes in the FLUXNET2015 dataset and suggest that this bias is a pronounced source of uncertainty in ET measurements to be considered when estimating ecosystem T/ET and WUE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 and 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 (4338) 0 in ϒ(1𝑆,2𝑆) Inclusive Decays at Belle

Using data samples of 102 million ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) events and 158 million ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆) events collected by the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy 𝑒+⁢𝑒− collider, we search for [𝑢⁢𝑑⁢𝑠⁢𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$ ] pentaquark states decaying to 𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ. Using the first observations of ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆,2⁢𝑆) inclusive decays to 𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ, we find evidence of the 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 state with a local significance of 3.3 standard deviations, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We measure the mass and width of the 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 to be (4471.7±4.8±0.6) MeV/𝑐 2 and (22 ±13 ±3) MeV, respectively. The branching fractions for 𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 production are measured to be ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆)→𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459)0/ $\overline{𝑃}$ 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 +anything]=(3.5±2.0±0.2)×10 −6 and ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆)→𝑃 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 /$\overline{𝑃}$ 𝑐$\overline{𝑐}$𝑠 ⁢(4459) 0 +anything]=(2.9±1.7±0.4)×10 −6 . The inclusive branching fractions of ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆,2⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ are measured to be ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(1⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ +anything] =(36.9 ±5.3 ±2.4) ×10 −6 and ℬ⁡[ϒ⁡(2⁢𝑆) →𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/$\overline{Λ}$ +anything] =(22.3 ±5.7 ±3.1) ×10 −6 . We measure the visible cross section 𝜎⁡(𝑒+⁢𝑒−→𝐽/𝜓⁢Λ/ $\overline{Λ}$ +anything)=(90±14±6) fb for the continuum production at √𝑠 =10.52 GeV. In all cases, the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creating high-precision reference gas standards of 85Kr for groundwater age-dating

Absolute gas counting (AGC) was applied to two gas blends of 85Kr in argon-methane (P10) counting gas to establish a high-precision specific activity (Bq/cm3) reference value for characterizing 85Kr detection efficiency for groundwater age dating measurements. The AGC or length-compensated technique has been utilized by the metrology community for decades and is an accepted method for developing radioactive gas standards. The AGC capability at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) uses a set of nine unequal-length proportional counters with precisely-measured internal volumes, and a gas loading system with high-precision pressure and temperature sensors. A series of AGC measurements were collected at multiple pressures to determine the inverse pressure relationship (1/P) for 85Kr and define a wall-effect correction that accounts for events decaying into the detector wall and not depositing sufficient energy in the gas to be detected. In addition to the wall-effect, two additional corrections were evaluated and are discussed in detail. Specifically, the threshold effect which accounts for events deposited below the analysis threshold and a detection efficiency as a function of detector volume effect that was observed during analysis. A robust uncertainty model was developed using the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM) approach. The combination of carefully scrutinized correction factors, precise measurements of pressure, temperature and detector volume, and robust counting statistics resulted in the determination of high-precision specific activity values with 0.50% or less total combined uncertainty for two Kr-in-P10 reference gas standards (KP10) that will enable new groundwater age-dating measurements at PNNL.

Kr-85↗
DOE OSTI2024

Slitless spectrophotometry with forward modelling: Principles and application to measuring atmospheric transmission

Context.In the next decade, many optical surveys will aim to answer the question of the nature of dark energy by measuring its equation-of-state parameter at the per mill level. This requires trusting the photometric calibration of the survey with a precision never reached so far on many sources of systematic uncertainties. The measurement of the on-site atmospheric transmission for each exposure, or for each season or for the full survey on average, can help reach the per mill precision for the magnitudes. Aims.This work aims at proving the ability to use slitless spectroscopy for standard-star spectrophotometry and its use to monitor on-site atmospheric transmission as needed, for example, by theVera C. RubinObservatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time supernova cosmology program. We fully deal with the case of a disperser in the filter wheel, which is the configuration chosen in theRubinAuxiliary Telescope. Methods.The theoretical basis of slitless spectrophotometry is at the heart of our forward-model approach to extract spectroscopic information from slitless data. We developed a publicly available software calledSpectractor, which implements each ingredient of the model and finally performs a fit of a spectrogram model directly on image data to obtain the spectrum. Results.We show through simulations that our model allows us to understand the structure of spectrophotometric exposures. We also demonstrate its use on real data by solving specific issues and illustrating that our procedure allows the improvement of the model describing the data. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be used to directly extract atmospheric transmission parameters from the data and thus provide the base for on-site atmosphere monitoring. We show the efficiency of the procedure in simulations and test it on the limited available data set.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing the matter-dominated expansion with multi-redshift Lyman-$α$ BAO from DESI DR2

We present a multi-redshift Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) analysis of the DESI Data Release 2 (DR2) Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest, splitting the forest auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasars into three redshift bins. We obtain BAO measurements at effective redshifts $z_{\rm eff} = 2.13$, $2.40$, and $2.81$ with $\sim2.0$--$2.5\%$ precision per bin in the radial and transverse directions, corresponding to $\sim1.1$--$1.2\%$ precision for the isotropic BAO measurement. Using the same data products and modeling framework as the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ BAO analysis, we validate the pipeline on $400$ synthetic datasets and find unbiased BAO recovery with well-calibrated uncertainties. The measurements show an increase in the isotropic dilation parameter $D_V/r_d$ from $30.26\pm0.39$ to $32.22\pm0.47$ and in the Alcock-Paczyński parameter $D_M/D_H$ from $3.96\pm0.15$ to $5.63^{+0.22}_{-0.24}$. The Hubble distance $D_H/r_d$ decreases from $9.40\pm0.20$ to $7.22\pm0.17$, providing a direct measurement of the expansion history consistent with $Λ$CDM and the expected matter-dominated scaling, with $H(z)\propto(1+z)^n$ giving $n=1.34\pm0.16$. The redshift split also provides a self-consistent measurement of clustering evolution: the Ly$α$ forest bias evolves as $(1+z)^γ$ with $γ_α=3.05\pm0.16$, the RSD parameter has a redshift evolution described by $γ_β=-0.97\pm0.26$, and the quasar bias evolves with $γ_Q=1.56\pm0.23$, consistent with independent quasar clustering measurements. Combining these three-bin BAO measurements with DESI DR2 galaxy and quasar BAO measurements yields cosmological constraints consistent with the single-bin Ly$α$ BAO analysis in flat $Λ$CDM and $w_0w_a$CDM and improves curvature constraints by $\sim12\%$ in $Λ$CDM$+Ω_\mathrm{K}$.

Herrera-Alcantar, Hiram K. [Paris, Inst. Astrophys↗
DOE OSTI2024

Melting point of iron at high pressure: An assessment of uncertainties and effect of electronic temperature

An accurate calculation of the melting point of iron at various pressures in the Earth's core is important for understanding the core structure, geodynamo, and the Earth's history. Previous studies have assessed the melt line of iron at these extreme conditions using various experimental measurement techniques as well as both ab initio and classic molecular dynamics simulations. However, experimental measurements have uncertainties up to several hundred Kelvin, and inconsistencies remain among simulation results. Here in this work, we propose an iterative framework that couples density functional theory (DFT) calculations and molecular dynamics simulations performed using an ensemble of interatomic potentials to assess the effect of electronic temperature on the melting point. We systematically validate the potentials by comparing lattice constants and phonon dispersion curves at 0 K and enthalpy differences between liquid and HCP, FCC, BCC phases of iron close to the melt line at 300 GPa with DFT. Our results show that HCP iron melts at 6144 K (at 300 GPa), BCC phase is thermodynamically unstable, and FCC is metastable at this temperature. The melting points of FCC and BCC phases at 300 GPa are 5858 and 5647 K, respectively.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the Electromagnetic Response of the NOvA Detectors

The NOvA Test Beam Program was commissioned to complement the full-scale NOvA experiment in its goal of measuring neutrino oscillations. The NOvA Experiment consists of a 300-ton Near Detector and a 14-kton Far Detector, both exposed to the same beam, which can be operated in neutrino or antineutrino mode from Fermilab at an off-axis angle of 14.6~mrad. These detectors can discriminate between $\nu_\mu$-CC and $\nu_e$-CC neutrino (or corresponding antineutrino) events, enabling appearance and disappearance measurements of these flavors across the \SI{810}{\kilo\meter} near-to-far detector baseline. From these measurements, the underlying parameters of the three-flavor PMNS oscillations framework are measured. The NOvA Test Beam uses identical technology to the full-scale detectors, but scaled down to 30~tons. It is exposed to a beam of charged particles closely matched to the daughter products of NOvA (anti)neutrino interactions in both energy and species. An instrumented beamline determines both particle momentum and species upstream of the NOvA detector, allowing for a crisp measurement of the NOvA detector response to these known inputs. This dissertation presents an analysis of the electromagnetic response of the NOvA hardware and establishes a framework for incorporating these results to enhance the physics reach of the experiment. Prior to this work, the electromagnetic energy response of the NOvA detector relied primarily on simulation-driven calibration together with a globally applied energy scale uncertainty. The measurements presented here provide direct test beam constraints on the detector response, enabling particle-dependent and potentially energy-dependent uncertainty models derived from controlled electromagnetic inputs.

Myers, Dalton Grant [U. Texas, Austin (main)] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary IHLW Formulation Algorithm Description

This report documents the initial algorithm that could be used by the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) in batching high-level waste (HLW) and glass-forming chemicals (GFCs) in the HLW melter feed preparation vessel (MFPV) (HFP-VSL-00001 and -00005). Not all Hanford tank waste can be accommodated by the models developed for this report and significant expansion of the model boundaries could be achievable to reduce the WTP mission life and total canister production count. The immobilized HLW (IHLW) must meet a series of constraints to be acceptable for disposal in the Monitored Geologic Repository, which are contained in the Specification 1 of the Contract (DOE 2000), the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications (WAPS, DOE 1996), and the Waste Acceptance System Requirements Document (WASRD, DOE 2007). The IHLW Waste Form Compliance Plan (WCP, 24590-HLW-PL-RT-07-0001, Rev 3) specifies that the formulation algorithm will be developed and used to comply with the constraints associated with glass composition and properties. This report is not an engineering calculation, does not provide design input, and is not an engineering study. Algorithm inputs include the chemical analyses of the blended HLW in the HLW blend vessel (HBV) (HLP-VSL-00028, the volume and composition of the MFPV heel, the volume and composition of the MFPV after waste addition, the volume and composition of MFPV batch after GFC addition, the compositions of individual GFCs, and the mass of glass in each canister. In addition to these inputs, uncertainties in the HLW composition and processing parameters are included in the algorithm. Using the above inputs, the algorithm calculates the following outputs: 1) the volume of HLW to be transferred from the HBV to the MFPV, 2) the mass of each GFC for addition to the MFPV, 3) the composition of the glass that will be produced along with uncertainties, and 4) the predicted properties, with associated uncertainties, of the resulting IHLW. The algorithm uses the property-composition models to calculate properties with associated uncertainties and compares them with various constraints to ensure that a processable feed is formulated and a compliant IHLW is produced. The GFC additions are determined using an optimization approach to provide high confidence that the HLW glass will meet all product quality requirements and key processing constraints. For most HLW batches there are many possible glass compositions that meet all constraints. In these cases, the glass composition is optimized for a series of target component concentrations and target property values. The algorithm also incorporates process measurement and product quality uncertainties, based on the work of Piepel et al. (2005). Estimates of the various process and measurement uncertainties that affect glass compositions and predicted glass properties have been previously reported (Piepel et al. 2005, 2006) and the impacts of these estimated uncertainties on the IHLW composition envelope that meets product quality and processing-related properties with sufficient confidence were evaluated. The details of work performed to date to develop this initial GFC addition and batching algorithm are summarized in Sections 4 and 5. An example data set is used to illustrate the calculations of the algorithm summarized in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, there is a statement of the required work to achieve a final operational IHLW formulation control algorithm. This report is not an engineering calculation, does not provide design input, and is not an engineering study.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Coefficients Calculated for the Prompt Neutron Decay Constant at or Near Delayed Critical [Abstract]

Experimenters at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) measure the prompt neutron decay constant for many experiments at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) to infer reactivity and the effective neutron multiplication factor. These quantities are very important for nuclear criticality safety and validating nuclear data. Uncertainty in measures of criticality of an experimental configuration can be determined prior to physically performing the experiment by applying first order perturbation theory to Monte Carlo codes, such as MCNP®. The first order perturbation theory produces first derivatives of some nuclear parameter to nuclear data (e.g., cross section data). This first derivative is commonly referred to as a sensitivity coefficient. Currently, the MCNP® software has the capability of computing effective neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficients to cross section data. This work builds off of this MCNP® capability and the first order perturbation theory to provide a method of calculating sensitivity coefficients for the prompt neutron decay constant at or near delayed critical to cross section data. The prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient calculated in this work does not depend on any modification of the MCNP® source code. Prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficient calculations can be used to infer reactivity and effective neutron multiplication factor sensitivity coefficient values as well. By investigating the trends of prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients for nuclide-reaction pairs across energy spectra, experiments can be designed to maximize or minimize the uncertainty in the prompt neutron decay constant in a particular energy region, which can lead to further optimization studies. Prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients will be calculated for the Jezebel benchmark. Subsequently, these sensitivity coefficients will be used in a data assimilation process to determine if there is or are optimal experiments that can be performed to provide insight into adjustments of uncertain/inaccurate cross section data. Specifically, the effect of the prompt neutron decay constant sensitivity coefficients on the nuclear data-induced uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor will be examined

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flow Enhanced Electrochemical Sensor Performance in Complex Salt Systems

To advance MSR MC&A practices, Argonne National Laboratory developed and optimized robust flow enhanced electrochemical sensors (FEES) and multielectrode array voltammetry sensors (MAVS) which provide accurate near-real time measurements of actinides in molten salts. Flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors are installed directly into MSR flow conduits for inline salt chemistry measurement, while MAVS are deployed in quiescent salt conditions enabling online species concentration determination in stationary salt vessels. This report summarizes efforts to improve electrochemical sensor technological readiness through (1) sensor testing in complex, high concentration molten salt systems to demonstrate low uncertainty actinide measurements in MSR-representative solutions and (2) demonstrations of sensor performance in challenging real-world conditions in collaboration with partner MSR institutions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The inclusion of uncertainty in circularity transition modeling: A case study on wind turbine blade end-of-life management

The transition to a more circular economy (CE) is complex and hard to predict, including in sustainable energy technologies. Many sources of uncertainty make it challenging to model CE scenarios and their potential benefits. As an example, the high variability in costs and revenues of different recycling options makes future wind turbine blade recycling highly uncertain. To better understand this challenge, the circular economy, life cycle assessment and visualization (CELAVI) framework - a discrete event simulation and life cycle assessment framework - is modified to incorporate uncertainty analysis capabilities. Moreover, a 3-step procedure that covers different aspects of uncertainty in CE studies and includes a Monte-Carlo analysis is proposed. The procedure is tested in a case study on wind turbine blade recycling using CELAVI. Results highlight that grinding and landfilling costs are the most influential parameters for wind power circularity. The model's output coefficients of variation (when input parameter uncertainties are propagated) are between 92% and 384% depending on the indicator. The approach developed in this study may help researchers and decision-makers who study circularity prioritize their data collection effort. Finally, our method contributes to a mounting yet critical body of research: the measurement of uncertainty in circularity transitions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Computer Models

Efficient analysis of computer models is essential for the validation and uncertainty quantification of those models. Surrogate models, and Gaussian processes in particular, are a common and powerful approach to analyzing computer models that treat computer models as a black-box function. Gaussian processes form a Bayesian model over a space of functions that gives a measure of uncertainty about the computer model output at unobserved locations and a framework for sequential sampling. This tutorial will show how to fit Gaussian processes on a series of test functions and apply sequential design techniques to estimate extrema, level sets, and reliabilities of those test functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise Measurement of the Neutron Magnetic Form Factor Using Super-BigBite Spectrometer at Jefferson Lab

The GMn experiment (E12-09-019) was conducted at Jefferson Laboratory from late 2021 into early 2022. The goal was to make high-precision measurement of the neutron’s magnetic form factor (GMn) at multiple kinematic points, including Q2 = 3.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10, 12, 13.5, 16, and 18 (GeV/c)2. Limited data exist for GMn in the region up to about Q2 = 10 (GeV/c)2, with existing data having large systematic uncertainty. In this experiment, the ratio method was employed to reduce systematic uncertainty by measuring the ratio of neutron and proton yields. The experiment took place at Jefferson Laboratory in Hall A, where the BigBite spectrometer was used to detect the scattered electrons, while the HCal in the SuperBigbite spectrometer was used to detect both neutrons and protons. The protons were deflected slightly upwards with the use of a large-aperture dipole magnet named BigBen, allowing for enhanced particle identification. Extraction of GMn requires taking the ratio of proton and neutron yields. Analysis efforts are still currently underway to refine corrections to the data, including detector efficiencies, radiative corrections, neutron and proton mass identification, and charge exchange.

Lashley-Colthirst, Nathaniel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗