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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
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DOE OSTI2021

Co-Evolving Climate Models under Uncertainty to Improve Predictive Skill

Focal Area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models Science Challenge: Advances in modeling of climate and improved observational capabilities have led to great improvements in understanding large-scale historical climate effects. It however remains a challenge to reliably predict the risk of fine-scale regional climate events on human systems even as such risks are on the rise because warmer and wetter climates are more prone to hydrometeorological extremes,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Hydro-Biogeochemistry Processes

Focal Area(s): The white paper focuses on areas 2 and 3. The proposed deep learning modeling approach can provide forecasting capabilities and mechanism-based understanding of terrestrial and aquatic hydro- biogeochemical processes at watershed and river basin scales. Knowledge gleaned here can also provide insights for Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning techniques to disentangle water use efficiency, climate change, and carbon sequestration across ecosystem scales

Focal Areas: We plan to use machine learning (ML) to disentangle the impact of climate change on plant water use efficiency (WUE) across the leaf level, structured canopy, and community ecosystem scales. Due to the complex behavior of modeling plant WUE’s connection to carbon storage (and hidden co-varying interactions) we suggest that physics-based deep learning must be utilized. The second topic we propose is, based on a better understanding of WUE response to climate change, there is a need to predict how WUE will limit or enhance the recycling of water from transpiration by vegetation back to the land surface worldwide, and thus impact water storage capacity (i.e., natural and reservoirs), using machine learning optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

EAM-HLR: Enhancing the low-resolution E3SM Atmosphere Model with an ML model of high-low-resolution residual in convective processes

Focal Area(s). (2) Augment the low-resolution (LR) E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) with a machine learning (ML) column model of the residual in convective processes with respect to high-resolution (HR) and ultra-HR (UHR) simulation and observational data. Science Challenge. Substantially improve LR EAM climatology to increase multidecadal water cycle (WC) predictability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emergent Concepts from a Community Ideation on AI4ESP

This AI4ESP white paper is the outcome of an open ideation session led by PNNL that numerous institutions participated in. The leadership team included Amy Goldman, Huiying Ren, Tim Scheibe, and James Stegen. The white paper is broken into two sections: (1) A summary of the ideation session, and (2) a short summary of a ‘meta idea’ that emerged from combining multiple ideas spanning the three primary focal area themes articulated in BER’s AI4ESP guidance: A - Data Acquisition and Assimilation, B - Predictive Modeling, and C - Insight from Complex Data. The white paper, therefore, has two goals. The first section is meant to be a resource for innovating around how to pursue open, community-based ideation in virtual environments. The second section is meant as an example of the kinds of ‘meta ideas’ that can emerge from bringing diverse ideas together in a single shared space. We consider the second section to be a submission to BER’s request for white papers around AI4ESP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced prediction of terrestrial feedbacks to the coastal carbon cycle:using machine learning to improve sub-grid biogeochemical processes

Focal Areas: The paper aims to improve predictability of the coastal carbon cycle through improved model representation and quantification of the terrestrial feedbacks to aquatic ecosystems. The paper covers two focus areas, 1. Improved predictive modeling of terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry through ML-enabled surrogate models, and 2. Employing machine learning to integrate multimodal data sets collected across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems at high spatial and temporal resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-scale predictions of water and nitrogen exports in coastal watersheds

Focal Area(s): The purpose of this white paper is to call for the improvement of the predictability and explainability of the magnitude and timing of water and nutrient exports in coastal watersheds. In this regard, hybrid machine learning approaches and process-based numerical models provide new opportunities to maximize predictability, emulate process-based model components, and explicitly address model uncertainty associated with event-scale predictions in coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring variability in seasonal average and extreme precipitation using unsupervised machine learning.

Focal Area(s): We will use unsupervised machine learning methods to identify and quantify the influence of large scale natural modes of climate variability to gain insight into the observed and simulated seasonal average and extreme precipitation changes. Science Challenge: A recent paper, led by co-PI Mark Risser, finds that although much of the variability in seasonal average and extreme precipitation over CONUS is unforced, the effect of large-scale modes of circulation variability (such as ENSO, AMO, PNA, etc.) can be detected and attributed. However, it is unclear whether or not unsupervised learning methods can (a) replicate this finding or (b) yield insight into possible nonlinear behavior that was not captured in the initial statistical analysis. Further work would entail extending this framework to other global land areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FAIR data infrastructure and tools for AI-assisted streamflow prediction

Focal Area(s) Areas: We discuss how the integration of AI into Earth Science models can impact streamflow predictions at both the science and data levels. Doing so, we address cross-cutting needs related to the goal of making data FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Re-usable [1]) for seamless use with Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) in Earth System Science at DOE. A novel idea is that AI/ML itself can help with the FAIR data goal and address issues in targeted areas e.g. missing data, data quality and reduction. In addition, the interpretability of results obtained with new AI methods is poised to impact broader scientific challenges in hydrology..

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feature Detection

Focal Area(s): This proposal aims to develop and evaluate statistical models and machine learning algorithms for detecting and tracking features in spatiotemporal remotely sensed data with uncertainty quantification. We focus a particular application on the detection of sea ice leads and ridges in the Arctic and use these key sea ice features for model calibration and to gain insight into the physics of sea ice thermodynamics and deformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

GANpiler

Focal Area(s): Rather than augment or replace physical models with machine learning, we instead preserve the existing models and augment the underlying code with faster surrogate models created by generative adversarial networks (GAN). To leverage the performance optimization, we also propose a runtime system and user interfaces that allow prediction and tracking of accumulated error as well as dynamic, per-process decision making as to which model (if any) to use for each iteration. Science Challenge: This proposal sits at the nexus of two hard problems. First, climate models based on machine learning will be, by their nature, difficult to trust once their predictions begin diverging from the consensus. Second, compilers and hardware have been making only incremental performance gains for decades. GPGPUs have provided a welcome performance boost for codes that can take advantage of them, but there is no similar technology on the horizon to provide the next performance leap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Retrievals in an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Framework for Illuminating Processes Controlling Water Cycle

Focal Area(s): This white paper responds to Focal Area #3: Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses the water-cycle and data-model integration grand challenge. It leverages data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility, and Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE), and Science Focus Area (SFA). The white paper focuses on controlling cloud, precipitation, and radiative properties as observed and simulated by the Earth System Models (ESM). The described framework can be readily applied to any other ensemble of instruments, including satellites and other ground-based networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improve wildfire predictability driven by extreme water cycle with interpretable physically-guided ML/AI

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (Primary); insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics or knowledge-guided AI (Secondary). Science Challenge: Wildfires modify land surface characteristics, such as vegetation composition, soil and litter carbon stocks, and surface albedo, with significant consequences for the regional carbon cycle. For example, tropical regions (i.e., African and South America) are particularly vulnerable to wildfire, account for more than 80% of the global burned area, and emit ~1.4 PgC y -1 into the atmosphere together with other dust and aerosols that strongly affect regional climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Understanding of Coupled Water and Carbon Cycle Processes through Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area(s): This white paper addresses how explainable machine learning (ML) algorithms can improve insights gained from complex data (Focal Area 3). We will also address how ML approaches related to sensor compression and low energy AI hardware can be used for efficient data acquisition (Focal Area 1). Science Challenge: We will focus on the coupled water cycle and carbon cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Thus, our approaches will be centered around several data-model integration challenges indicated in EESD strategic plans for two science focus areas: Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Hydrobiogeochemistry. We can use AI to correct systematic model errors due to biases in either data or model structure/processes. Error patterns in model predictions usually vary by region, model, season etc. But there are systematic patterns in them. e.g., soil moisture tends to be overestimated in the arid western continental United States underestimated in wetter eastern USA; some land surface models tend to underestimate moisture in wet seasons and overestimate in dry seasons. Moreover, the consequences of extreme events (e.g., drought, extreme flooding, storm surges associated with tropical storms, hurricanes) on carbon cycle processes are not well represented in ecosystem and Earth system models. Redox-sensitive processes (e.g., rapid oxidation/reduction of iron and other redox-sensitive elements in soil microsites subjected to fluctuated hydrology) in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces further challenge model predictions of hot-spots (and hot-moments) due to poor understanding of underlying mechanisms. Thus, AI/ML approaches can be used to learn patterns in the data and model errors and use them to build model equations and correct process-based model errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗