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At least 271 records · Page 15

Resiliency of Degraded Built Infrastructure

Infrastructure resiliency depends on the ability of infrastructure systems to withstand, adapt, and recover from chronic and extreme stresses. In this white paper, we address the resiliency of infrastructure assets and discuss improving infrastructure stability through development of our understanding of cement and concrete degradation. The resiliency of infrastructure during extreme events relies on the condition, adaptability, and recoverability of built infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams), which serves as the backbone of existing infrastructure systems. Much of the built infrastructure in the US has consistently been rated D+ by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Aged infrastructure introduces risk to the system, since unreliable infrastructure increases the likelihood of failures under chronic and extreme stress and are particularly concerning when extreme events occur. To understand and account for this added risk from poor infrastructure quality, more research is needed on (i) how the changing environment alters the aging of new and existing built infrastructure and (ii) how degradation causes unique failure mechanisms. The aging of built infrastructure is based on degradation of the structural materials, such as concrete and steel supports, which causes failure. Current work in cement/concrete degradation is based on (i) the development of high strength and degradation resistance concrete mixtures, (ii) methods of assessing the age and reliability of existing structures, and (3) modeling of structural stability and the microstructural evolution of concrete/cement from degradation mechanisms (sulfide attack, carbonation, decalcification). Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has made several investments in studying the durability and degradation of cement based materials, including using SNL-developed codes and methodologies (peridynamics, PFLOTRAN) to focus on chemo-mechanical fracture of cement for energy applications. Additionally, a recent collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder has included fracture of concrete gravity dams, scaling the existing work to applications in full sized infrastructure problems. Ultimately, SNL has the experience in degradation of cementitious materials to extend the current research portfolio and answer concerns about the resilience of aging built infrastructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calibration of Al7075 with Plate-Puncture Predictions

The following details calibration of a material model for Al7075-T6511. This aluminum alloy is commonly used across a host of engineering applications. Owing to its widespread prevalence, there is great benefit in improving simulation predictions for this alloy. In the present effort, a calibration is performed of its elastic-plastic response accounting for both rate and temperature dependence. The calibration is informed by a series of tests that include specimens of different geometries tested at different rates and temperatures. All specimens are derived from the same barstock, 3.5 inches in diameter. The fitted model itself uses an anisotropic, Hill yield surface coupled with a Johnson-Cook hardening model. Failure predictions are had by means of a modified Wilkins failure criterion. Following calibration of the material model, a validation exercise is performed against platepuncture experiments. These experiments include multiple probe shapes, probe diameters, and plate thicknesses. The puncture experiments are replicated in simulation with mesh studies performed to assess uncertainty. Key quantities of interest, notably the absorbed energy up to failure, are compared between simulation and experiment providing a means to assess the suitability of the calibration in puncture simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A multiscale cohesive law for carbon fiber networks

Better predictive models of mechanical failure in low-weight heat shield composites would aid material certification for missions with aggressive atmospheric entry conditions. In this study, we develop such a model for the rapid engineering analysis of the failure limits of phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) - a leading heat shield material whose structural component is a carbon fiber network. We hypothesize inelastic deformation failure mechanisms and model their behavior using molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the binding energy. We then upscale this binding energy to the macroscale using a renormalization argument. The approach delivers insightful and reasonably accurate macroscale predictions that compare favorably to experiments. In application, the model is validated for a particular variety of PICA by comparison to experiment and would then be used to study design scenarios in different entry conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An outbreak of renal failure in asian dogs due to s-triazine adulteration of pet food raw material: Analysis of unique, green kidney stones formed as a result

Renoliths were removed at necropsy from dogs that had died from acute kidney injury in Asia in 2004 and submitted to our laboratories for analysis including elemental composition, mass spectrometry, and microprobe analysis. The presence of a mixed s-triazine matrix comprising melamine, cyanuric acid, and ammelide, but no detectable ammeline, was found in the stone samples we analyzed. The unusual and unique green coloration of these stones was determined to be due to the presence of biliverdin. The occurrence of these green stones distinguished the 2004 incident from another incident in 2007 in the USA and other reported cases. The presence of crystals was reported in renal tubules and collecting ducts in both outbreaks, but no stones were reported in the 2007 incident. Here, this difference suggested a variation in the disease process caused by mixed s- triazine ingestion. Careful monitoring of food additives is warranted to prevent future problems in animals and humans.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Synthesis and Morphological Characterization of Electroless-Deposited Ni-P Coatings on Diamond Abrasives

Deposition of a coating on rough surfaces faces unique challenges due to the complexity of substrate morphology. In the present research, electroless deposition of a Ni-P coating was successfully deposited on diamond particles. Microtomography was conducted to study the deposition mechanisms. It revealed that the coating coverage rate on diamond particles was affected by the synergistic action of the deposition time, substrate morphology, and hypophosphite concentration. The best coverage was achieved in a solution with 0.2 mol/L hypophosphite. Two major morphological features of the coating: nodular and smooth, were influenced by the deposition parameters, coating integrity, and substrate morphology. The failure was seen in fractured and peeled off coatings. It was due to residual stress produced by the coalescing of crystallites during the deposition. This failure mechanism explains the tendency of coating fracture at three morphological features of the substrate. This work is beneficial to semiconductor manufacturing where effective cutting in chip fabrication is essential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Gear Test Assembly - Experimental Testing and Analysis of Gears and Bearings - FY2026

The Gear Test Assembly (GTA) is an experimental test apparatus built and installed in the Mechanisms and Engineering Test Loop (METL) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). While designed to accommodate a variety of components intended for use in advanced compact in-vessel transfer machine, the focus of GTA been the testing of large radial spur gears. The performance of the components used in GTA motivates the choices made in the design, components, and material choices for the forthcoming METL test articles; the Gripper Test Assembly (GrTA), and the Bearing Test Assembly (BTA). To date, GTA has completed nine experimental testing campaigns and achieved over 21 million revolutions under prototypic sodium fast reactor loads and operating conditions. This report provides an overview and results for the two most recent experiments Campaign #8 and Campaign #9. `Campaign #8 was the first campaign to make use of a set of nickel alloy radial spur gears, made from Hastelloy C-22HS, and combined with heat-treated tapered roller bearings. The bearings and torque profile used allowed Campaign #8 to be directly compared with Campaign #1 where Inconel 718 gears were used instead. Campaign #8 attained 1,058,880 shaft revolutions within 23% of the 1,314,855 revolutions achieved in Campaign #1. These results demonstrate that the heat-treated tapered roller bearings show consistent increased lifetimes, approximately three times longer than for non heat-treated taper rollers, and that the particular material of the gear does not play a substantial role in performance. Similar to Campaign #7 where bearing failure resulted in fragmentation and transport of bearing material into the gear teeth led to tooth damage in the Inconel gears, a similar process led to the damage of the Hastelloy gears. Subsequent NDE analysis showed that the damage was only limited to the tooth surface and does not extend into the gear interiors. Based on the NDE reports, the Hastelloy gears can be reconditioned and put back into service for future campaigns as was done for the Inconel gears. Reconditioned Inconel 718 gears damaged in Campaign #7 were returned to service in Campaign #9 and paired with non heat-treated tapered roller bearings. In Campaign #9 a novel set of operating conditions were implemented whereby the gears and bearings were cycled between hot, submerged refueling conditions where fuel handling operations occurred and cold, dry, and inert conditions where the sodium was drained and the vessel was allowed to cool simulating long, ex-vessel storage of the fuel handling machine. A total of eight of these operating cycles were achieved before a bearing failure occurred after the accumulation of 475,692 shaft revolutions were achieved. During Campaign #9, one of the drive motors was damaged and over the course of a 240 day standby period, the entire GTA drive system was upgraded from a 480VAC system to a 240VAC system that provided the opportunity to consolidate wall-space in the METL facility and provide more space for additional test articles being installed in the coming year. The over 475,000 shaft revolutions achieved in Campaign #9 eclipses the previous record for lifetime of non heat-treated tapered roller bearings held by Campaign #3 of 392,000 shaft revolutions. Further analysis and future campaigns hope to shed light on the cause of this approximately 17% increase in lifetime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-material direct ink writing and co-sintering of gadolinium oxide – zirconium oxide components

Methods for fabrication of multi-material or functionally graded ceramic composite architectures are of interest for numerous applications. However, conventional co-sintering of multi-material ceramic parts is a challenge because differences in the sintering behavior of the two materials leads to interfacial strain and, ultimately, component failure. Direct ink writing (DIW) is an extrusion-based additive manufacturing process that excels at multi-material printing because multiple extrusion nozzles can be installed on the same gantry system. Furthermore, the use of DIW as a method to fabricate multi-material ceramic green bodies offers an additional variable for controlling and potentially matching sintering kinetics in the slurry formulation used for two dissimilar feedstocks. In the work documented in this manuscript, we explored two strategies to successfully co-sinter multi-material ceramic oxides: slurry optimization to match sintering kinetics and material gradients to step from one material to another. This manuscript also quantifies the allowable mismatch that avoids part cracking in solid solution forming multi-material systems and discusses best strategies to reduce mismatch during co-sintering. Inks composed of gadolinium oxide (Gd 2 O 3 ) and zirconium oxide (ZrO 2 ), a surrogate for uranium oxide (UO 2 ), were thermally matched, which resulted in a sintering mismatch reduction of over 10%. It was found that ~1% mismatch is tolerable during debind cycles and that ~5% mismatch is manageable during sintering cycles after slurry formulations are optimized to match the sintering behavior. Use of continuous gradients is shown to reduce sintering mismatch, although geometric resolution may be lost due to solid solution formation.

Snarr, Patrick L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Interface microstructure effects on dynamic failure behavior of layered Cu/Ta microstructures

Abstract Structural metallic materials with interfaces of immiscible materials provide opportunities to design and tailor the microstructures for desired mechanical behavior. Metallic microstructures with plasticity contributors of the FCC and BCC phases show significant promise for damage-tolerant applications due to their enhanced strengths and thermal stability. A fundamental understanding of the dynamic failure behavior is needed to design and tailor these microstructures with desired mechanical responses under extreme environments. This study uses molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to characterize plasticity contributors for various interface microstructures and the damage evolution behavior of FCC/BCC laminate microstructures. This study uses six model Cu/Ta interface systems with different orientation relationships that are as- created, and pre-deformed to understand the modifications in the plasticity contributions and the void nucleation/evolution behavior. The results suggest that pre-existing misfit dislocations and loading orientations (perpendicular to and parallel to the interface) affect the activation of primary and secondary slip systems. The dynamic strengths are observed to correlate with the energy of the interfaces, with the strengths being highest for low-energy interfaces and lowest for high-energy interfaces. However, the presence of pre-deformation of these interface microstructures affects not only the dynamic strength of the microstructures but also the correlation with interface energy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

mystic : software for autonomous discovery and design under uncertainty

Throughout the diverse range of science and engineering applications, there is a growing desire to develop computational methods that can reliably predict the behavior of complex systems. Specifically, there is a strategic need for tools that can robustly forecast the behavior of complex physical systems, where data may be high-dimensional, noisy, or sparse, and models of the system may be time-dependent or include uncertainty. We use mystic to build tools that leverage statistical learning, physics-informed learning, and active learning in the efficient generation of reliably predictive surrogates for complex physical systems. mystic is a robust, proven, open-source optimization and uncertainty quantification toolkit with over a decade of use in the design and optimization of neutron instrumentation, solar-powered drones, and gasguns, and in iterative tuning of models for Raman spectroscopy and elastoplastic materials strength. Recent developments have focused on automated learning of statistically robust surrogates under uncertainty, with applications in materials in extreme environments, nanostructures, materials simulations and strength models, and the failure of shielding under particle radiation. In 2020, McKerns demonstrated active learning of optimally robust surrogates with respect to new simulated data for molecular dynamics simulations of materials mixing in warm dense matter, and is currently applying active learning to the automated steering of particle accelerator beams and the optimal design and control of quantum optical sensor instrumentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High strain-rate compression behavior of polymeric rod and plate Kelvin lattice structures

The compressive high strain-rate behavior of polymeric Kelvin lattice structures with rod-based or plate-based unit cells was investigated through experimental techniques and finite element simulations. Polymeric lattice structures with 5x5x5 unit cell geometries were manufactured on the millimeter scale using vat polymerization additive manufacturing and tested at low (0.001/s) and high (1000/s) strain-rates. High strain-rate experiments were performed and validated for a viscoelastic split-Hopkinson (Kolsky) pressure bar system (SHPB) coupled with high-speed imaging and digital image correlation (DIC). Experimental results at both low and high strain-rates show the formation of a localized deformation band which was more prevalent in low relative density specimens and low strain-rate experiments. Strain-rate effects of lattice specimens strongly correlate with effects of the base polymer material; both bulk polymer and lattice specimen demonstrated strain-rate hardening, strain-rate stiffening, and decreased fracture strain under dynamic loading. Results show mechanical failure properties and energy absorption depended strongly on the relative density of the lattice specimen and exhibited distinct scaling between relative density and geometry type (rod, plate) and loading rate. High relative density plate-lattices demonstrated inferior mechanical properties to rod-lattices; however, there exists a critical relative density for a given mechanical property (17%- 28%) below which plate-lattices outperform rod-lattices of similar mass. As a result, high strain-rate explicit finite element simulations were performed and showed good agreement with the mechanical failure trends and deformation modes observed in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A cavitation and dynamic void growth model for a general class of strain-softening amorphous materials

In this work, we derive a homogenized framework for cavitation and dynamic void growth in a general class of strain-softening materials with particular emphasis on amorphous materials. Analytic solutions are derived by considering an assemblage of spherical shells subject to dynamic hydrostatic tensile pressure. The isochoric response of the matrix material is captured by a free volume theory based amorphous viscoplasticity model. The framework accounts for the coupled rate-dependent, strain-softening behavior typically exhibited in amorphous materials. Validation of the homogenized theory is carried out against numerous direct numerical simulations with excellent agreement. Furthermore, we find that a reduction in cavitation strength and significant acceleration of dynamic void growth rates is induced as a consequence of strain-softening in the amorphous matrix material. Lastly, the model is utilized to interpret some non-intuitive experimental observations of amorphous materials subject to shock compression and subsequent spall failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unraveling kinking: A plasticity enhancing failure mode in high strength nano metallic laminates

Kinking is an important and plasticity-enhancing deformation/failure mode in numerous mechanically anisotropic materials including high-strength nano metallic laminates (NMLs). However, our current limited understanding of the mechanics of kinking and its dependence on microstructural attributes is insufficient for thoroughly comprehending and eventually being able to control failure behaviors of materials. In this study, we investigate kinking dependencies on microstructural attributes in NMLs via in situ micropillar compression, multiscale microstructure characterization, dislocation dynamic simulations, and crystal plasticity modeling. Additionally, by examining several NML systems (Cu/Fe, Ag/Fe, Al-4Mg/Fe), we demonstrate that the development of internal stresses during loading activates local layer-parallel glide triggering kinking in NMLs. Furthermore, this work reveals the effect of key microstructural features including layer thickness, layer waviness, interface barrier strength, and work hardening capacity on kink band formation in NMLs. More broadly, our efforts represent a generically applicable approach for probing large-strain deformation behavior of complex materials via synergetic modeling and experimental efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Demonstration of an All-Refractory Corrosion-Resistant Molten Salt Pumping and Storage Infrastructure Up to 950 degrees C

Concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES) has an estimated cost similar to solar photovoltaics (PV) with lithium-ion batteries (LIB), but CSP + TES has the potential for significantly reduced cost by operating above 700 degrees C. However, this requires a TES medium and containment infrastructure which are chemically compatible and do not degrade above 700 degrees C. MgCl2-KCl-NaCl (MKN) salt is a promising medium, but when MKN salt has small amounts of water and oxygen dissolved in it, it excessively corrodes conventional commercial alloys. Here, we consider refractory materials including graphite, carbon-carbon composite (C/C), and molybdenum because they maintain high mechanical strength at elevated temperatures and are expected to resist corrosion by MKN salt. While selection of refractory materials is often constrained by the need to remain chemically stable in air, this work uses an enclosure filled with inert gas to allow the use of materials like graphite and molybdenum. Notably, graphite components can seal against liquids unlike many brittle refractory materials. We demonstrate a centrifugal pump and mechanical seals made of refractory materials in a laboratory-scale circulation loop, which successfully operated continuously for more than 49 h at temperatures ranging from 750 degrees C to 950 degrees C with no mechanical failures or chemical degradation of the refractory materials. To the best of our knowledge, this is the highest temperature molten salt circulation loop that has been successfully developed, and this refractory infrastructure allows for operation at even much higher temperatures (<1600 degrees C) if a storage medium with a lower vapor pressure is used. The principles of this architecture are relevant to other applications with high temperature flowing metals and salts including Generation IV nuclear fission reactors for power production and molten salt electrolysis reactors for metallurgical processing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials (Second Annual Progress Report)

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of nuclear reactor parts. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which can introduce internal material flaws, such as pores and anisotropy. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to exposure to high temperature, radiation and corrosive environment in a nuclear reactor. Thermal tomography (TT) provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. Thermal tomography is a computational method for heat diffusion-based imaging of solids, which provides 3D visualization of data from flash thermography measurements. We investigate thermal tomography imaging and nondestructive evaluation of stainless steel and nickel super alloy metallic structures produced with laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing (AM) process. Metallic structures produced with LPBF contain defects, and there are limited capabilities to evaluate these structures non-destructively. Thermal tomography reconstruction of 3D apparent spatial effusivity provides information about AM structure geometry and internal material flaws. We study performance of thermal tomography in imaging of metallic structures through COMSOL computer simulations of transient heat transfer, and through reconstruction of data obtained from experimental measurements. Reconstruction of internal defects is investigated using a stainless steel 316L specimen with flat bottom hole (FBH) indentations, and Inconel 718 plate produced with laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) method, which contains imprinted hemispherical shape low density regions containing non-sintered metallic powder. The FBH’s have the same sizes as the imprinted defects in the LPBF specimens, but offer better imaging contrast. Thermal tomography reconstructions provide visualizations of internal defects, and allow for estimation of their sizes and locations. Detection sensitivity of TT is limited by noises. We investigate separation of signal from noise in thermography images using several machine learning (ML) methods, including new spatio-temporal blind source separation (STBSS) and spatio-temporal sparse dictionary learning (STSDL) methods. Performance of the ML methods is benchmarked using thermography data obtained from imaging stainless steel 316L and Inconel 718 specimens produced LPBF method with imprinted calibrated porosity defects. The ML methods are ranked by F-score and execution runtime. Finally, we investigate TT of AM stainless steel 316L specimen with imprinted internal porosity defects using relatively low-cost, small form factor infrared (IR) camera based on uncooled micro bolometer detector. Sparse coding related K-means singular value decomposition (SVD) machine learning, image processing algorithms are developed to improve quality of TT images through removal of Additive white Gaussian noise without blurring the images. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a compact TT can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE). With capability to perform in-service NDE of the AM component lifecycle, TT data can be used for development of a component digital twin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Active doping controls the mode of failure in dense colloidal gels

Mechanical properties of disordered materials are governed by their underlying free energy landscape. In contrast to external fields, embedding a small fraction of active particles within a disordered material generates nonequilibrium internal fields, which can help to circumvent kinetic barriers and modulate the free energy landscape. In this work, we investigate through computer simulations how the activity of active particles alters the mechanical response of deeply annealed polydisperse colloidal gels. We show that the “swim force” generated by the embedded active particles is responsible for determining the mode of mechanical failure, i.e., brittle vs. ductile. We find, and theoretically justify, that at a critical swim force the mechanical properties of the gel decrease abruptly, signaling a change in the mode of mechanical failure. The weakening of the elastic modulus above the critical swim force results from the change in gel porosity and distribution of attractive forces among gel particles, while below the critical swim force, the ductility enhancement is caused by an increase of gel structural disorder. Above the critical swim force, the gel develops a pronounced heterogeneous structure characterized by multiple pore spaces, and the mechanical response is controlled by dynamical heterogeneities. We contrast these results with those of a simulated monodisperse gel that exhibits a nonmonotonic trend of ductility modulation with increasing swim force, revealing a complex interplay between the gel energy landscape and embedded activity.

Zhou, Tingtao (ORCID:000000021766719X)↗

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗