Results for “METEOR SHOWER” — Page 15

NASA NTRS1998

Estimates of Leonid Storm Probabilities and Fluxes from Historical Information

We have analyzed accounts of Leonid storms and showers occurring near the 33 year resonance to derive probabilities of the occurrence of Leonid storms as a function of time since comet nodal passage and distance to the orbit of the particle stream. Based on this analysis, we have obtained the following storm probabilities for the coming apparition: 1997 - 33%, 1998 - 60%, 1999 - 100%, and 2000 - 25%. 95% confidence bands are also computed for these years. An expression for the Leonid storm flux is derived using a simple velocity-corrected ZHR scaling to the sporadic flux, which is then compared to that obtained from observations of the 1966 Leonid storm. The two results agree to within a factor of five, provided the Kessler meteor mass-magnitude relation is used. If the Jenniskens mass-magnitude relation is adopted, then the results are more disparate, disagreeing by a full order of magnitude. From the standpoint of spacecraft risk, it would make sense to choose the more conservative of the two relations, so the expression for the Leonid storm flux is F(sub storm) = 3x 10(exp 19) ZHR m(exp -1.3), where m, the meteoroid mass, is in grams, and the flux is in units of # /m2s. Based on the historical record, we are expecting Leonid ZHR's somewhere between 1000 and 5000 in 1998 and 1999.

Cooke, William J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Dust Trails of SP/Tuttle and the Unusual Outbursts of the Ursid Shower

Halley-type comets tend to have a series of dust trails that remain spatially correlated for extended periods of time, each dating from a specific return of the comet. Encounters with 1 - 9 revolution old individual dust trails of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle have led to well recognized Leonid shower maxim, the peak time of which was well predicted by recent models. Now. we used the same model to calculate the position of dust trails of comet Shuttle, a Halley-type comet in an (approximately) 13.6 year orbit passing just outside of Earth's orbit. We discovered that the meteoroids tend to be trapped in the 14:12 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, while the comet librates in a slightly shorter period orbit around the 13:15 resonance. It takes six centuries to change the orbit enough to intersect Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by six years. thus explaining the unusual aphelion occurrences of Ursid outbursts. The resonances also prevent dispersion, so that the dust trail encounters (specifically, from dust trails of AD 1378 - 1405) occur only in one year in each orbit. We predicted enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7:29 and 8:35 UT (universal time) from dust trails dating to the 1405 and 1392 return, respectively. This event was observed from California using video and photographic techniques. At the same time, five Global-MS-Net stations in Finland, Japan and Belgium counted meteors using forward meteor scatter. The outburst peaked at 8:06:07 UT, December 22, at Zenith Hourly Rate (approx.) 90 per hour. The Ursid rates were above half peak intensity during 4.2 hours. This is only the second Halley type comet for which a meteor outburst can be dated to a specific return of the parent comet, and traces their presence back form 9 to at least 45 revolutions of the comet. New orbital elements of Ursid meteoroids are presented. We find that most orbits do scatter around the anticipated positions, confirming the link with comet Shuttle and the epoch of ejection. The 1405 and.1392 dust trails appear to have contributed similar amounts to the activity profile. Some orbits provide a hint of much older debris being present as well. Some of the dispersion in the radiant position may reflect a true variation in inclinations, with two groupings at low and high values, which is not understood at present.

Jenniskens, Peter↗