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At least 271 records · Page 15

Synoptic Drivers of Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation Near Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) transport anomalous moisture from lower latitudes and can impact the AIS via extreme precipitation and increased downward longwave radiation. ARs contribute significantly to the interannual variability of precipitation over the AIS and thus are likely to play a key role in understanding future changes in the surface mass balance of the AIS. Dronning Maud Land (DML) is one of four maxima in AR frequency over coastal East Antarctica, with AR precipitation explaining 77% of the interannual variability in precipitation for this region. We employ a 16-node self-organizing map (SOM) trained with MERRA-2 sea-level pressure anomalies to identify synoptic-scale environments associated with landfalling ARs in and around DML. Node composites of atmospheric variables reveal common drivers of precipitation associated with ARs reaching DML including anomalous high-low surface pressure couplets, anomalously high integrated water vapor, and coastal barrier jets. Using a quasi-geostrophic framework, we find that upward vertical motion associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones dominates atmospheric lift in AR environments. We further identify mechanisms that explain the variability in AR precipitation intensity across nodes, such as the lift associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones and the spatial coincidence of ascent induced by the occlusion process and frontogenesis. Here, the latter suggests that ARs making landfall during the mature phase of cyclogenesis result in higher precipitation intensity compared to landfalling ARs that occur during the occluded phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to Northern Hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical forcing fields have enhanced temporal variability during the years 1997–2014 compared to earlier periods. Recent studies document that the corresponding inhomogeneous shortwave forcing over this period can cause changes in clouds, permafrost, and soil moisture, which contribute to a net terrestrial Northern Hemisphere warming relative to earlier periods. Here, we investigate the ocean response to the hemispherically asymmetric warming, using a 100-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble forced by two different BBA emissions (CMIP6 default and temporally smoothed over 1990–2020). Differences between the two subensemble means show that ocean temperature anomalies occur during periods of high BBA variability and subsequently persist over multiple decades. In the North Atlantic, surface warming is efficiently compensated for by decreased northward oceanic heat transport due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Pacific, surface warming is compensated for by an anomalous cross-equatorial cell (CEC) that reduces northward oceanic heat transport. The heat that converges in the South Pacific through the anomalous CEC is shunted into the subsurface and contributes to formation of long-lasting ocean temperature anomalies. The anomalous CEC is maintained through latitude-dependent contributions from narrow western boundary currents and basin-wide near-surface Ekman transport. Furthermore, these results indicate that interannual variability in forcing fields may significantly change the background climate state over long timescales, presenting a potential uncertainty in CMIP6-class climate projections forced without interannual variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Yang, Song↗

Rapid organic carbon spiraling in a headwater stream linked with streamflow, biogeochemistry, and canopy phenology

Headwater streams are abundant worldwide and important to global biogeochemical cycles, serving as critical processors and transporters of C. C spiraling is a useful way to understand the retention and mineralization of organic C (OC) in streams. However, analyses of seasonal and interannual variability in OC spiraling are currently limited. In this study, we aimed to understand the temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of OC spiraling, which will inform our understanding of future OC changes under climate change. We used 7 y of daily data in a small headwater stream (Walker Branch, Tennessee, USA) to assess seasonal and interannual variability in OC spiraling length (S OC ) and mineralization velocity (v fOC ), as well as their potential related variables. On average, S OC in Walker Branch was ~10× shorter than in previously studied small streams, indicating strong connections between the water column and the benthic environment where OC mineralization mostly takes place. OC spiraling was faster during the more biologically active periods of spring and autumn compared with more elongated OC spiraling in summer and winter, when OC retention was lower and downstream transport was higher. Gross primary production (GPP) was most strongly related to S OC and v fOC . Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and NO 3 − were also positively and negatively related to v fOC , respectively. Trends toward earlier and longer canopy cover and reduced GPP and PAR may result in longer S OC and slower v fOC , reducing localized instream processing of OC and potentially shunting more OC downstream. However, long-term observations indicate reduced NO 3 − at Walker Branch, suggesting opposing effects to those of GPP and PAR, leading to faster v fOC and greater OC retention. Time-series analyses of OC spiraling in streams can enhance our understanding of current and future responses of OC processing and downstream transport to climate change, as well as implications for downstream OC dynamics.

biological activity↗

Cloud Ozone Dust Imager (CODI): Investigation and Technical Plan - Volume 1

The Cloud Ozone Dust Imager (CODI) is proposed to investigate the current climatic balance of the Mars atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the important but poorly understood roles which dust and water ice aerosols play in this balance. The large atmospheric heating (20-50 K) resulting from global dust storms around Mars perihelion is well recognized. However, groundbased observations of Mars atmospheric temperatures, water vapor, and clouds since the Viking missions have identified a much colder, cloudier atmosphere around Mars aphelion that may prove as important as global dust storms in determining the interannual and long-term behavior of the Mars climate. The key climate issues CODI is designed to investigate are: 1) the degree to which non-linear interactions between atmospheric dust heating, water vapor saturation, and cloud nucleation influence the seasonal and interannual variability of the Mars atmosphere, and 2) whether the strong orbital forcing of atmospheric dust loading, temperatures and water vapor saturation determines the long-term balance of Mars water, as reflected in the north-south hemispheric asymmetries of atmospheric water vapor and polar water ice abundances. The CODI experiment will measure the daily, seasonal and (potentially) interannual variability of atmospheric dust and cloud opacities, and the key physical properties of these aerosols which determine their role in the climate cycles of Mars. CODI is a small (1.2 kg), fixed pointing camera, in which four wide-angle (+/- 70 deg) lenses illuminate fixed filters and CCD arrays. Simultaneous sky/surface imaging of Mars is obtained at an angular resolution of 0.28 deg/pixel for wavelengths of 255, 336, 502, and 673 nm (similar to Hubble Space Telescope filters). These wavelengths serve to measure atmospheric ozone (255 and 336 nm), discriminate ice and dust aerosols (336 and 673 nm), and construct color images (336, 502, and 673 nm). The CODI images are detected on four 512 x 512 pixel arrays, as partitioned on two 1024 x 1024 CCD's operated in frame transfer mode. The center of the CODI field-of-view is canted 40 deg from the zenith direction to obtain sky brightness measurements and a 20 deg surface field-of-view. Daily image observations will be conducted when the Sun is greater than or equal to 5 deg outside the edge of the CODI field-of-view, and twilight and nighttime imaging will obtained on a weekly basis. The 673 nm channel includes a polarizer wheel to obtain sky/surface polarimetry. A dust cover protects the entire lens assemblies of all four CODI channels. This opaque dust cover, which is normally opened for CODI imaging, includes a small fixed mirror and transparent window positioned above the 673 nm lens, to redirect the 673 nm field-of-view to the surface for descent imaging. Fixed pointing, internal data buffering, low operating power (2-4 W for less than or equal to 30 seconds), selective data transmission, and simple operational characteristics of the CODI experiment place minimum resource and operational demands on the Mars Surveyor 1998 lander. The CODI science goals are optimized for, but not restricted to, a low-latitude landing site (20 deg S-30 deg N). The primary CODI measurement objectives are the opacities, wave forms, particle properties (size, shape, and alignment), and heights of clouds; the opacities, particle properties, and vertical distribution of dust; and the opacity and vertical distribution of ozone. The variability of cloud, ozone, and dust opacities will be determined on diurnal, daily, and seasonal timescales. Wind velocities will be determined from cloud motions and wave characteristics; and the temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor, with limited altitude information, will be inferred from the CODI ozone observations. Secondary measurement objectives include limited descent imaging capability, surface uv-visible photometry and polarimetry, photochemistry, and meteorite infall rates.

Clancy, R. Todd↗

The Validation of Version 8 Ozone Profiles: Is SBUV Ready for Prime Time?

Ozone profile data are now available from a series of BUV instruments - SBUV on Nimbus 7 and SBW/2 instruments on NOAA 9, NOAA 11, and NOAA 16. The data have been processed through the new version 8 algorithm, which is designed to be more accurate and, more importantly, to reduce the influence of the a priori on ozone trends. As a part of the version 8 reprocessing we have attempted to apply a consistent calibration to the individual instruments so that their data records can be used together in a time series analysis. Validation consists of examining not only the mean difference from external datasets (i.e trends) but also consistency in the interannual variability of the data. Here we validate the v8 BUV data through comparison with ECC sondes, lidar and microwave measurements, and with SAGE II and HALOE satellite data records. We find that individual profiles generally agree with external data sets within +/-10% between 30 hPa and 1 hPa (approx. 24 - 50 km) and frequently agree within +/-5%. The interannual variability of the BUV ozone time series agrees well with that of SAGE II . On the average, different B W instruments usually agree within +/-5% with each other, though the relative error increases near the ends of the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 16 data records as a result of instrument problems. The combined v8 BUV data sets cover the 1979-2003 time period giving daily global coverage of the ozone vertical distribution to better accuracy than has ever been possible before.

McPeters, R. D.↗

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An observational study of the final warming in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

The final warming in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during the period September 1-November 30 for the years 1978-1983 is studied. The change in zonally averaged temperatures during that period is almost the same for each year. However, there is substantial interannual variability in the time evolution of the warming as events of enhanced wave, mean-flow interaction associated with bursts of upward propagating planetary waves develop at different times in different years. Polar temperatures in the middle stratosphere can increase as much as about 20 K in 4 days during these events. Such dynamical processes can play a significant role in the interannual variability of stratospheric ozone and other constituents.

Farrara, John D.↗

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Huff, J. Jacob A. (ORCID:0000000329143817)↗

FluxSat: Long-term Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) for Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) based on satellite data calibrated with eddy covariance data

Gross primary production (GPP), the amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) assimilated by plants through photosynthesis, is one of the most variable and uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Global GPP has been estimated with a number of process-based models, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), driven by observed environmental changes, are used for global carbon budget assessments and long-term (climate) prediction. Benchmarking these and other models globally with data-driven GPP estimates is critical for understanding the land sink and ensuring accurate forecasts of the carbon cycle. In addition, global data-driven GPP estimates are crucial for studies of interannual variability, including trends that are linked to mechanisms with large uncertainties, such as the indirect CO 2 fertilization effect related to greening. In response to a community need for a GPP data set that well captures spatio-temporal variability, we developed FluxSat, a data-driven approach that optimizes the use of satellite reflectance data from the NASA MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites, calibrated using ground-based eddy covariance (EC) data. We are enhancing (spatially, higher resolution) and extending FluxSat (in time, with additional sensors) to create a high quality long term GPP Earth System Data Record (ESDR) for use in model benchmarking, carbon cycle modeling, and studies of trends and interannual variability. Our team’s objectives are to: 1. Update and document the current MODIS FluxSat GPP (daily, 0.05o and 0.5o resolutions) products with latest available MODIS and EC data sets; 2. Extend FluxSat GPP record forward in time with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on operational weather satellites going forward; 3. Extend FluxSat GPP record backward in time using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on weather satellites dating back to 1981; 4. Provide higher spatial resolution MODIS and VIIRS GPP (0.0083o). 5. Thoroughly evaluate all FluxSat products with independent data; and 6. Create a homogenized long-term GPP record spanning 40+ years. We will discuss plans for this long-term data set that is supported through the NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program.

gross Primary Production↗

Streamflow Response to Glacier Mass Loss Varies With Basin Precipitation Across Alaska

Abstract Diminishing glaciers affect streamflow, and given the extent of glaciers in Alaska and adjacent Canada, continued glacier mass loss is likely to have profound effects on ecosystems sensitive to runoff. The effects of glacier mass loss on streamflow are likely to vary across the wide ranges of basin size, glacier cover, and precipitation in this region. In this study, we use U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data with satellite‐based glacier volume change estimates to quantify how glacier mass loss subsidized streamflow over the 2000–2019 period for 116 glacierized basins. We examine interannual variability in that subsidy at three USGS‐monitored glaciers to explore the ability of the subsidy to buffer streamflow derived solely from precipitation. We found the relative importance of percent glacier cover on streamflow magnitude increases in drier basins. In the driest basins, glaciers produced 40 times greater percent glacier mass loss subsidies to streamflow for the percent glacier cover compared to the wettest basins. While the subsidy from glacier mass loss buffers interannual variability in streamflow to varying degrees, it can also increase streamflow variability. Smaller amounts of percent glacier cover are needed to produce summer‐melt‐dominated seasonal flow regimes in drier basins than in wetter basins. Decreasing glacier cover will eventually decrease summer streamflow, increasing spring streamflow in drier basins, and attenuating seasonality with increasing spring and autumnal streamflow in wetter basins. Quantifying the downstream effects of continued glacier mass loss without the computational expense of a hydrological model is broadly applicable in this changing climate.

Curran, Janet H. [U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Sc↗

The Climate Signal in Regional Moisture Fluxes: A Comparison of Three Global Data Assimilation Products

This study assesses the quality of estimates of climate variability in moisture flux and convergence from three assimilated data sets: two are reanalysis products generated at the Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEPJNCAR), and the third consists of the operational analyses generated at the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). The regions under study (the United States Great Plains, the Indian monsoon region, and Argentina east of the Andes) are characterized by frequent low level jets (LLJs) and other interannual low level wind variations tied to the large-scale flow. While the emphasis is on the reanalysis products, the comparison with the operational product is provided to help assess the improvements gained from a fixed analysis system. All three analyses capture the main moisture flux anomalies associated with selected extreme climate (drought and flood) events during the period 1985-93. The correspondence is strongest over the Great Plains and weakest over the Indian monsoon region reflecting differences in the observational coverage. For the reanalysis products, the uncertainties in the lower tropospheric winds is by far the dominant source of the discrepancies in the moisture flux anomalies in the middle latitude regions. Only in the Indian Monsoon region, where interannual variability in the low level winds is comparatively small, does the moisture bias play a substantial role. In contrast, the comparisons with the operational product show differences in moisture which are comparable torhe differences in the wind in all three regions. Compared with the fluxes, the anomalous moisture convergences show substantially larger differences among the three products. The best agreement occurs over the Great Plains region where all three products show vertically-integrated moisture convergence during the floods and divergence during the drought with differences in magnitude of about 25%. The reanalysis products, in particular, show good agreement in depicting the different roles of the mean flow and transients during the flood and drought periods. Differences between the three products in the other two regions exceed 100% reflecting differences in the low level jets and the large scale circulation patterns. The operational product tends to have locally larger amplitude convergence fields which average out in area-mean budgets: this appears to be at least in part due to errors in the surface pressure fields and aliasing from the higher resolution of the original ECMWF fields. On average, the reanalysis products show higher coherence with each other than with the operational product in the estimates of interannual variability. This result is less clear in the Indian monsoon region where differences in the input observations appears to be an important factor. The agreement in the anomalous convergence patterns is, however, still rather poor even over relatively data dense regions such as the United States Great Plains. These differences are attributed to deficiencies in the assimilating GCM's representations of the planetary boundary layer and orography, and a global observing system incapable of resolving the highly confined low level winds associated with the climate anomalies.

Min, Wei↗

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summer Synoptic-Scale Waves over Tropical West Africa Observed by TRMM

A 5-year daily rainfall dataset (3B42) from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) is used to investigate the activity and properties of westward-propagating synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa. Evident wave signals appearing in wavenumber-frequency space show their modulations on the surface rainfall pattern during the boreal summer. Interannual variability exists in both their intensity and spectral properties, i. e., dominant frequency and wavenumber ranges. These variabilities can be partly ascribed to year-to-year variations of their embedded large-scale environment, especially the status of mid-tropospheric African easterly jet (AEJ). Generally, a stronger (weaker) AEJ indicates more (less) instability energy yielding a stronger (weaker) wave activity season. Seasonal mean rainfall has shown an impact on these waves in some years. However, the impact is not as clear and consistent as AEJ, implying the complexity of their relationship with large-scale environment. To fully understand interannual variability of synoptic-scale waves over tropical West Africa, including the variability in their preferred frequencies and wavenumbers, it is therefore necessary to examine possible intra-seasonal variations existing in both wave activity and large-scale fields, in addition to their structure, propagation, and associated convection.

Starr, David O.↗

Variability of particulate organic carbon concentration in the north polar Atlantic based on ocean color observations with Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS)

We use satellite data from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) to investigate distributions of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration in surface waters of the north polar Atlantic Ocean during the spring summer season (April through August) over a 6-year period from 1998 through 2003. By use of field data collected at sea, we developed regional relationships for the purpose of estimating POC from remote-sensing observations of ocean color. Analysis of several approaches used in the POC algorithm development and match-up analysis of coincident in situ derived and satellite-derived estimates of POC resulted in selection of an algorithm that is based on the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance R(sub rs) (or normalized water-leaving radiance L(sub wn)). The application of the selected algorithm to a 6-year record of SeaWiFS monthly composite data of L(sub wn) revealed patterns of seasonal and interannual variability of POC in the study region. For example, the results show a clear increase of POC throughout the season. The lowest values, generally less than 200 mg per cubic meters, and at some locations often less than 50 mg per cubic meters, were observed in April. In May and June, POC can exceed 300 or even 400 mg per cubic meters in some parts of the study region. Patterns of interannual variability are intricate, as they depend on the geographic location within the study region and particular time of year (month) considered. By comparing the results averaged over the entire study region and the entire season (April through August) for each year separately, we found that the lowest POC occurred in 2001 and the highest POC occurred in 2002 and 1999.

Stramska, Malgorzata↗