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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

CO2 lidar observations of Mount Pinatubo debris: FIRE 2 and longer-term measurements

The volcanic debris in the stratosphere from the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo first appeared over the NOAA Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) field site near Boulder, Colorado (40.15 N, 105.23 W), in July of 1991. The presence of the Pinatubo cloud has allowed us to characterize both the tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol backscatter using the NOAA/WPL CO2 Doppler lidar. The lidar has measured vertical backscatter profiles at lambda = 10.59 mu m for over a decade. Analysis of this dense set of profiles reveals the effects of atmospheric and microphysical processes during the buildup and decay of Mt. Pinatubo's clouds. Further information on the NOAA lidar, specifically calibrations using a hard target, can be found in Post and Cupp (1990). We present results of those measurements for June 15, 1991, through December 31, 1992. During that period of longer-term measurements, WPL took part in FIRE II (First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment II), from November 12 through December 8, 1991, measuring vertical backscatter profiles almost daily. One of the mechanisms for purging stratospheric aerosols is tropopause folding, which occurs in cold-core extratropical cyclones. Tropospheric mass loading occurs during folding events which can substantially increase the amount of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere, and may affect the formation of cirrus in that region. Spring and fall are prominent times for tropopause folding events because of the migration of the subtropical and polar jet streams during the transition seasons. Sassen has suggested that the volcanic aerosols from Pinatubo played a role in the formation of cirrus during FIRE II, particularly during a period of moist subtropical flow on December 5-6, 1991.

Levinson, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Intercomparison of Large-Eddy Simulations of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Importance of Ice Size Distribution Assumptions

Large-eddy simulations of mixed-phase Arctic clouds by 11 different models are analyzed with the goal of improving understanding and model representation of processes controlling the evolution of these clouds. In a case based on observations from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), it is found that ice number concentration, Ni, exerts significant influence on the cloud structure. Increasing Ni leads to a substantial reduction in liquid water path (LWP), in agreement with earlier studies. In contrast to previous intercomparison studies, all models here use the same ice particle properties (i.e., mass-size, mass-fall speed, and mass-capacitance relationships) and a common radiation parameterization. The constrained setup exposes the importance of ice particle size distributions (PSDs) in influencing cloud evolution. A clear separation in LWP and IWP predicted by models with bin and bulk microphysical treatments is documented and attributed primarily to the assumed shape of ice PSD used in bulk schemes. Compared to the bin schemes that explicitly predict the PSD, schemes assuming exponential ice PSD underestimate ice growth by vapor deposition and overestimate mass-weighted fall speed leading to an underprediction of IWP by a factor of two in the considered case. Sensitivity tests indicate LWP and IWP are much closer to the bin model simulations when a modified shape factor which is similar to that predicted by bin model simulation is used in bulk scheme. These results demonstrate the importance of representation of ice PSD in determining the partitioning of liquid and ice and the longevity of mixed-phase clouds.

clouds↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS1989

Solar activity, the QBO, and tropospheric responses

The suggestion that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as modulated by the solar wind are the carriers of the component of solar variability that affects weather and climate has been discussed in the literature for 30 years, and there is now a considerable body of evidence that supports it. Variations of GCR occur with the 11 year solar cycle, matching the time scale of recent results for atmospheric variations, as modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial stratospheric winds (the QBO). Variations in GCR occur on the time scale of centuries with a well defined peak in the coldest decade of the little ice age. New evidence is presented on the meteorological responses to GCR variations on the time scale of a few days. These responses include changes in the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the two days following solar flare related high speed plasma streams and associated GCR decreases, and in decreases in Vorticity Area Index (VAI) following Forbush decreases of GCR. The occurrence of correlations of GCR and meteorological responses on all three time scales strengthens the hypothesis of GCR as carriers of solar variability to the lower atmosphere. Both short and long term tropospheric responses are understandable as changes in the intensity of cyclonic storms initiated by mechanisms involving cloud microphysical and cloud electrification processes, due to changes in local ion production from changes in GCR fluxes and other high energy particles in the MeV to low GeV range. The nature of these mechanisms remains undetermined. Possible stratospheric wind (particularly QBO) effects on the transport of HNO3 and other constituents incorporated in cluster ions and possible condensation and freezing nuclei are considered as relevant to the long term variations.

Tinsley, Brian A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Simulated and Observed Intense Convective Cores for a Midlatitude Continental and Tropical Maritime Environment

This study contrasts midlatitude continental and tropical maritime deep convective cores using polarimetric radar observables and retrievals from selected deep convection episodes during the MC3E and TWPICE field campaigns. The continental convective cores produce stronger radar reflectivities throughout the profiles, while maritime convective cores produce more positive differential reflectivity Z dr and larger specific differential phase K dp above the melting level. Hydrometeor identification retrievals revealed the presence of large fractions of rimed ice particles (snow aggregates) in the continental (maritime) convective cores, consistent with the Z dr and K dp observations. The regional cloud-resolving model simulations with bulk and size-resolved bin microphysics are conducted for the selected cases, and the simulation outputs are converted into polarimetric radar signals and retrievals identical to the observational composites. Both the bulk and the bin microphysics reproduce realistic land and ocean (L-O) contrasts in reflectivity, polarimetric variables of rain drops, and hydrometeor profiles, but there are still large uncertainties in describing Z dr and K dp of ice crystals associated with the ice particle shapes/orientation assumptions. Sensitivity experiments are conducted by swapping background aerosols between the continental and maritime environments, revealing that background aerosols play a role in shaping the distinct L-O contrasts in radar reflectivity associated with raindrop sizes, in addition to the dominant role of background thermodynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Interior characteristics at mid-levels of thunderstorms in the southeastern United States

Data characterizing the vertical wind structure and hydrometeors within cumulonimbus clouds in the southeastern United States were collected by the armored T-28 aircraft during the 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX). Data analysis concentrated on the hydrometeor character and development, as well as the general microphysical and kinematic structure of the clouds penetrated. The high reflectivities which sometimes exceeded the usual 55 dBz limit set for the T-28, are not necessarily related to hail in the COHMEX storms. Instead, large numbers of millimeter-size particles were found, while the hail infrequently encountered was generally small. The fact that the larger hydrometeors were usually found in narrow and weak updrafts that appeared to be well mixed suggests that a coalescence mechanism was active in many of the storms. The depth of warm cloud (typically about 3.5 km) present in these storms apparently allows ample time for particles to reach the observed millimeter sizes. The presence of cloud droplets in the largest sizes measured supports this mechanism. Ice processes play a role in the precipitation, but hail was unable to grow very large in these storms probably because the high concentrations of observed growth centers suggest a natural beneficial competition process.

Musil, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Moist Convection in the Giant Planet Atmospheres

The outer planets of our Solar System display a myriad of interesting cloud features, of different colors and sizes. The differences between the types of observed clouds suggest a complex interplay between the dynamics and chemistry at play on these atmospheres. Particularly, the stark difference between the banded structures of Jupiter and Saturn, vs the sporadic clouds on the ice giants highlights the varieties in dynamic, chemical and thermal processes that shape these atmospheres. Since the early explorations of these planets by spacecrafts, such as Voyager and Voyager 2, there are many outstanding questions about the long term stability of the observed features. One hypothesis is that the internal heat generated during the formation of these planets is transported to the upper atmosphere through latent heat release from convecting clouds (i.e., moist convection). In this review, we present evidences of moist convective activity on the gas giant atmospheres of our Solar System from remote sensing data, both from ground- and space-based observations. We detail the processes that drive moist convective activity, both in terms of the dynamics as well as the microphysical processes that shape the resulting clouds. Finally, we also discuss the effects of moist convection on shaping the large scale dynamics (such as jet structures on these planets).

Planetary Science↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparison of Satellite and Aircraft Measurements of Cloud Microphysical Properties in Icing Conditions During ATREC/AIRS-II

Satellites are ideal for continuous monitoring of aircraft icing conditions in many situations over extensive areas. The satellite imager data are used to diagnose a number of cloud properties that can be used to develop icing intensity indices. Developing and validating these indices requires comparison with objective "cloud truth" data in addition to conventional pilot reports (PIREPS) of icing conditions. Minnis et al. examined the relationships between PIREPS icing and satellite-derived cloud properties. The Atlantic-THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATReC) and the second Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS-II) field programs were conducted over the northeastern USA and southeastern Canada during late 2003 and early 2004. The aircraft and surface measurements are concerned primarily with the icing characteristics of clouds and, thus, are ideal for providing some validation information for the satellite remote sensing product. This paper starts the process of comparing cloud properties and icing indices derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) with the aircraft in situ measurements of several cloud properties during campaigns and some of the The comparisons include cloud phase, particle size, icing intensity, base and top altitudes, temperatures, and liquid water path. The results of this study are crucial for developing a more reliable and objective icing product from satellite data. This icing product, currently being derived from GOES data over the USA, is an important complement to more conventional products based on forecasts, and PIREPS.

Nguyen, Louis↗
NASA NTRS2008

Characterization of MJO-Related Upper Tropospheric Hydrological Processes using MLS

This study quantifies Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)- related hydrological variability in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere (UT/LS) using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) cloud ice water content (IWC) and water vapor (H2O). In a composite of six boreal-winter MJO events, the UT/LS IWC anomaly is strongly positively correlated with the convection (TRMM rainfall) anomaly. IWC anomalies range from +/-2 mg/cu m at 215 hPa to +/-0.08 mg/cu m at 100 hPa. The UT/LS H2O anomaly has an eastward-tilting structure similar to the previous-documented temperature structure, but the H2O maximum lags the temperature maximum by about a week. The H2O anomaly is positively correlated with the convection anomaly in the UT (261 hPa) and LS (68 hPa) but negatively correlated with the convection anomaly near the tropopause (100 hPa). This analysis provides a multi-parameter construct useful in validating and improving the parameterization of convection, clouds and cloud microphysics in MJO modeling.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13393-DND

In the two plus decades since it became evident that polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a major role in the springtime depletion of polar ozone, the detailed composition and morphology of PSCs has been an area of interest. Although our PSC knowledge base is substantial, there is still considerable uncertainty in specific key areas related to their composition and formation. Probably the least well understood of these is the nucleation process responsible for the formation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles and the circumstances under which NAT formation and growth leads to stratospheric denitrification. CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization) is an excellent instrument for observing PSCs and has already produced an extensive set of PSC observations with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution covering five winters. These observations are providing new insight into the key remaining questions regarding PSC composition and formation mechanisms. In this paper, we examine the CALIOP PSC observations in combination with a microphysical model in attempt to better understand the underlying physical mechanisms for NAT nucleation. Of particular interest is the early phase of the 2009-2010 Arctic winter when CALIOP frequently observed extended regions of tenuous NAT clouds, clearly before ice was present in the polar vortex. This provides unprecedented large-scale evidence that ice particles are not the only nuclei on which NAT may form. Microphysical model calculations along backward trajectories from these CALIOP NAT cloud observations are used to investigate possible ice-independent, heterogeneous NAT nucleation mechanisms. These analyses will then be expanded to other winters to assess the overall significance of an ice-independent nucleation mechanism for NAT PSCs.

M C Pitts↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Dependence on Grid Resolution of Numerically Simulated Convective Cloud Systems Using Ice Microphysics

Mesoscale research and forecast models are increasingly being used at horizontal resolutions of 1-8 km to simulate a variety of precipitating systems. When the model is used to simulate convective systems, it is uncertain to what extent the dynamics and microphysics of convective updrafts can be resolved with grids larger than 1 km. In this study, two- and three-dimensional versions of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model are used to determine the impact of horizontal grid resolution on the behavior of the simulated storms and on the characteristics of the cloud microphysical fields. It will be shown that as resolution decreases from about 1 km to greater than 3 km, there is a fairly rapid degradation of the storm structure in the form of reduced convective mass fluxes, updraft tilts, and cloud microphysics. A high-resolution simulation of hurricane outer rainbands using the MM5 mesoscale model shows also that there can be a substantial modification of the key microphysical processes that contribute to rainfall as a result of reducing the horizontal resolution.

Braun, Scott A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microphysical properties of atmospheric soot and organic particles: measurements, modeling, and impacts

Atmospheric soot and organic particles from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning modify Earth’s climate through their interactions with solar radiation and through modifications of cloud properties by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. Recent advancements in understanding their individual properties and microscopic composition have led to heightened interest in their microphysical properties. This review article provides an overview of current advanced microscopic measurements and offers insights into future avenues for studying microphysical properties of these particles. To quantify soot morphology and ageing, fractal dimension ( D f ) is a commonly employed quantitative metric which allows to characterize morphologies of soot aggregates and their modifications in relation to ageing factors like internal mixing state, core-shell structures, phase, and composition heterogeneity. Models have been developed to incorporate D f and mixing diversity metrics of aged soot particles, enabling quantitative assessment of their optical absorption and radiative forcing effects. The microphysical properties of soot and organic particles are complex and they are influenced by particle sources, ageing process, and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, soluble organic particles exhibit diverse forms and can engage in liquid–liquid phase separation with sulfate and nitrate components. Primary carbonaceous particles such as tar balls and soot warrant further attention due to their strong light absorbing properties, presence of toxic organic constituents, and small size, which can impact human health. Future research needs include both atmospheric measurements and modeling approaches, focusing on changes in the mixing structures of soot and organic particle ensembles, their effects on climate dynamics and human health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Secondary Ice Production in Continental Clouds Based on AMF Synergistic Remote Sensing Observations

Ice crystals play an important role in radiation and precipitation formation. However, the prediction of ice number concentration has proven to be problematic, because the predicted concentration of ice nucleating particles is often smaller than the observed by several orders of magnitude. This difference between the observed and the predicted number concentration has been explained by so-called secondary ice production (SIP), which includes hypothesized mechanisms like rime splintering, shattering of large frozen drops, and ice-ice collision breakup. To better observe SIP and understand its frequency, production rate, and impact on cloud evolution, we developed a new method for retrieving microphysical properties of concurrent pristine ice and snow aggregates from X-band polarimetric radar observations. Compared to aircraft cloud probe measurements, our retrieved total number concentration and ice water content are overestimated by 98% and 44%, respectively, which outperforms other empirical relationships. The capability of quantifying pristine ice number concentration, which is the most essential observable in SIP studies, opens a new opportunity to build a long-term record of SIP from surface-based radar measurements. We have also conducted simulations using a cloud-resolving model to evaluate the representativeness of the parameterizations of three SIP mechanisms and for studying the impact of SIP on a frontal system. We found a surprisingly good agreement between the observed and retrieved pristine ice number concentrations. The good performance is attributed to the rime splintering process in the temperature zone between–3° and –8°C, and to the ice-ice collision breakup process at higher altitudes. The impact of the shattering of large frozen drops appears minimal. Apart from the enhancement of ice number concentration and increased horizontal coverage of pristine ice, the addition of three SIP processes does not change cloud evolutions dramatically in our simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients

Abstract Aircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Cloud Radar System

Improvement in our understanding of the radiative impact of clouds on the climate system requires a comprehensive view of clouds including their physical dimensions, dynamical generation processes, and detailed microphysical properties. To this end, millimeter vave radar is a powerful tool by which clouds can be remotely sensed. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has developed the Cloud Radar System (CRS). CRS is a highly sensitive 94 GHz (W-band) pulsed-Doppler polarimetric radar that is designed to fly on board the NASA high-altitude ER-2 aircraft. The instrument is currently the only millimeter wave radar capable of cloud and precipitation measurements from above most all clouds. Because it operates from high-altitude, the CRS provides a unique measurement perspective for cirrus cloud studies. The CRS emulates a satellite view of clouds and precipitation systems thus providing valuable measurements for the implementation and algorithm validation for the upcoming NASA CloudSat mission that is designed to measure ice cloud distributions on the global scale using a spaceborne 94 GHz radar. This paper describes the CRS instrument and preliminary data from the recent Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE). The radar design is discussed. Characteristics of the radar are given. A block diagram illustrating functional components of the radar is shown. The performance of the CRS during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign is discussed.

Racette, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2015

Formation of Cirrus Clouds near the Tropical Tropopause and Their Implications for Stratospheric Humidity, Radiation Budgets, and Climate

Optically-thin cirrus clouds are a nearly ubiquitous feature of the transition layer between the tropical troposphere and stratosphere (known as the Tropical Tropopause Layer). Given their high occurrence frequency, these clouds have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget, with a particularly strong influence on the outgoing longwave radiation. Further, ice crystal growth and sedimentation in these clouds dehydrates air in the cold TTL to very low water vapor mixing ratios. Since transport from the troposphere into the stratosphere occurs primarily through the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation transports air from the TTL throughout the stratosphere, cloud processes in the TTL cold trap essentially regulate the humidity of the entire stratosphere. It has been shown that even small changes in stratospheric humidity can have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget and climate, with magnitudes comparable to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases. The humidity of air crossing the TTL cold trap depends to first order on tropical tropopause temperatures, but also on deep convection reaching the TTL, large-scale transport (in balance with TTL radiative heating), atmospheric waves, and cloud microphysical processes. Gaps in our understanding of TTL transport and cloud processes motivated the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX). ATTREX used the long-range (16,000 km), high-altitude (20 km) Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system equipped with twelve instruments measuring clouds, water vapor, meteorological conditions, chemical tracers, chemical radicals, and radiation. I will discuss the physics of TTL cirrus formation and the impact of these clouds on water vapor and radiation budgets, including new results emerging from the ATTREX measurements.

Jensen, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2004

Near-Real Time Cloud Properties and Aircraft Icing Indices from GEO and LEO Satellites

Imagers on many of the current and future operational meteorological satellites in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) and lower Earth orbit (LEO) have enough spectral channels to derive cloud microphysical properties useful for a variety of applications. The products include cloud amount, phase, optical depth, temperature, height and pressure, thickness, effective particle size, and ice or liquid water path, shortwave albedo, and outgoing longwave radiation for each imager pixel. Because aircraft icing depends on cloud temperature, droplet size, and liquid water content as well as aircraft variables, it is possible to estimate the potential icing conditions from the cloud phase, temperature, effective droplet size, and liquid water path. A prototype icing index is currently being derived over the contiguous USA in near-real time from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-10 and 12) data on a half-hourly basis and from NOAA- 16 Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) data when available. Because the threshold-based algorithm is sensitive to small errors and differences in satellite imager and icing is complex process, a new probability based icing diagnosis technique is developed from a limited set of pilot reports. The algorithm produces reasonable patterns of icing probability and intensities when compared with independent model and pilot report data. Methods are discussed for improving the technique for incorporation into operational icing products.

Minnis, Patrick↗