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At least 271 records · Page 15

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DOE OSTI2021

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the Path to Decarbonized Building Thermal Systems: Strategies for Designers and Contractors: Preprint

The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to decarbonized thermal systems that maintain human comfort while reducing building emissions. Through the U.S. Department of Energy Better Buildings initiative's Design and Construction Allies, a cohort of leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms have identified top ranked barriers that designers and contractors face when implementing solutions for building owners. These barriers to decarbonizing thermal - especially heating - systems include equipment availability; electrical capacity constraints; space allocations; complex system configurations; and lack of experience in designing, installing, and maintaining heat pumps. These impediments significantly amplify the risk and financial burden associated with the adoption of decarbonized solutions. The barriers also decrease the likelihood that designers, contractors, and owners will adopt decarbonization strategies without clear plans and guidance on how to implement these solutions, mitigate risk, and overcome the identified barriers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the Design and Construction Allies, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers have developed "how to" thermal decarbonization guidance based on best practices. The subjects covered range from the role of energy efficiency in facilitating decarbonized heating solutions to strategies for decarbonizing new and existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems. The focus is on overcoming barriers so that energy-efficient, electrified buildings - both new and retrofit - become the industry standard. This paper outlines 1) the method used to collect and organize this guidance, 2) industry barriers to decarbonization, and 3) decarbonization techniques that have broad market applicability.

building heating↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the role of judgement and shared situation awareness when working with AI recommender systems

Abstract AI-advised Decision Making is a form of human-autonomy teaming in which an AI recommender system suggests a solution to a human operator, who is responsible for the final decision. This work seeks to examine the importance of judgement and shared situation awareness between humans and automated agents when interacting together in the form of a recommender systems. We propose manipulating both human judgement and shared situation awareness by providing the human decision maker with relevant information that the automated agent (AI), in the form of a recommender system, uses to generate possible courses of action. This paper presents the results of a two-phase between-subjects study in which participants and a recommender system jointly make a high-stakes decision. We varied the amount of relevant information the participant had, the assessment technique of the proposed solution, and the reliability of the recommender system. Findings indicate that this technique of supporting the human’s judgement and establishing a shared situation awareness is effective in (1) boosting the human decision maker’s situation awareness and task performance, (2) calibrating their trust in AI teammates, and (3) reducing overreliance on an AI partner. Additionally, participants were able to pinpoint the limitations and boundaries of the AI partner’s capabilities. They were able to discern situations where the AI’s recommendations could be trusted versus instances when they should not rely on the AI’s advice. This work proposes and validates a way to provide model-agnostic transparency into recommender systems that can support the human decision maker and lead to improved team performance.

Srivastava, Divya↗

DOE OSTI2022

Successional adaptive strategies revealed by correlating arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal abundance with host plant gene expression

The shifts in adaptive strategies revealed by ecological succession and the mechanisms that facilitate these shifts are fundamental to ecology. These adaptive strategies could be particularly important in communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) mutualistic with sorghum, where strong AMF succession replaces initially ruderal species with competitive ones and where the strongest plant response to drought is to manage these AMF. Although most studies of agriculturally important fungi focus on parasites, the mutualistic symbionts, AMF, constitute a research system of human-associated fungi whose relative simplicity and synchrony are conducive to experimental ecology. First, we hypothesize that, when irrigation is stopped to mimic drought, competitive AMF species should be replaced by AMF species tolerant to drought stress. We then, for the first time, correlate AMF abundance and host plant transcription to test two novel hypotheses about the mechanisms behind the shift from ruderal to competitive AMF. Surprisingly, despite imposing drought stress, we found no stress-tolerant AMF, probably due to our agricultural system having been irrigated for nearly six decades. Remarkably, we found strong and differential correlation between the successional shift from ruderal to competitive AMF and sorghum genes whose products (i) produce and release strigolactone signals, (ii) perceive mycorrhizal-lipochitinoligosaccharide (Myc-LCO) signals, (iii) provide plant lipid and sugar to AMF, and (iv) import minerals and water provided by AMF. These novel insights frame new hypotheses about AMF adaptive evolution and suggest a rationale for selecting AMF to reduce inputs and maximize yields in commercial agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inertial confinement fusion system which decouples life-limited component from plant availability

An architecture for an inertial confinement fusion system is disclosed. The system includes a fusion chamber for producing neutrons from a fusion reaction, and a laser system in which lasers are arranged about a vacuum chamber to provide energy to the fusion chamber to initiate the fusion reaction. The beam paths between the lasers and the fusion chamber are configured to prevent neutrons from the fusion chamber from reaching the laser system at a level that would preclude human access to the laser system.

Moses, Edward I.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process↗

DOE OSTI2023

Magnetostrictive materials for enhanced sensors and electronic components

Magnetostriction is a property of magnetic materials that causes them to change their shape or dimensions proportional to their magnetization. Low-cost, mechanically robust magnetostrictive sensors would be valuable for a wide range of applications across the DOE and national security mission space, such as monitoring the internal conditions of pipelines, rapidly detecting high-impedance faults in power lines (e.g. trees touching power lines), or enhancing implantable systems for the human body. Dilute doping (<1 at.%) of rare earth elements (REE) has been shown to amplify the magnetostriction. Furthermore, alloy processing by rapid cooling from high temperature tends to result in texturing and therefore greater magnetostriction values, which bodes well for developing advanced manufacturing approaches significantly less expensive than single crystal growth. The goal of this effort was to develop robust, low-cost magnetostrictive materials compatible with advanced manufacturing techniques to exploit the rapid cooling of these approaches while retaining the ability to produce fully dense structures. To be useful as a sensor or actuator the coercivity of the material needs to be minimized so that there is minimal magnetic hysteresis. Employing a small scale laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) system, specimens of Fe-Ga-Ce were built from alloy powder which had a magnetostriction of 289 ppm along the build direction and 197 ppm perpendicular to the build direction. These values are not far from the 310-350 ppm observed in single crystals of Fe-Ga. The results of the series of samples run suggest this is a very promising route for REE doping to higher levels, especially if the powders can be produced using far from equilibrium approaches such as ultrasonic atomization. The promising results from applying additive manufacturing techniques to these materials, particularly the inexpensive Fe-Al system, has potential for inexpensive high-performing magnetostrictive parts producible at large scales for low-cost sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biphasic response of human iPSC-derived neural network activity following exposure to a sarin-surrogate nerve agent

Organophosphorus nerve agents (OPNA) are hazardous environmental exposures to the civilian population and have been historically weaponized as chemical warfare agents (CWA). OPNA exposure can lead to several neurological, sensory, and motor symptoms that can manifest into chronic neurological illnesses later in life. There is still a large need for technological advancement to better understand changes in brain function following OPNA exposure. The human-relevant in vitro multi-electrode array (MEA) system, which combines the MEA technology with human stem cell technology, has the potential to monitor the acute, sub-chronic, and chronic consequences of OPNA exposure on brain activity. However, the application of this system to assess OPNA hazards and risks to human brain function remains to be investigated. In a concentration-response study, we have employed a human-relevant MEA system to monitor and detect changes in the electrical activity of engineered neural networks to increasing concentrations of the sarin surrogate 4-nitrophenyl isopropyl methylphosphonate (NIMP). We report a biphasic response in the spiking (but not bursting) activity of neurons exposed to low (i.e., 0.4 and 4 μM) versus high concentrations (i.e., 40 and 100 μM) of NIMP, which was monitored during the exposure period and up to 6 days post-exposure. Regardless of the NIMP concentration, at a network level, communication or coordination of neuronal activity decreased as early as 60 min and persisted at 24 h of NIMP exposure. Once NIMP was removed, coordinated activity was no different than control (0 μM of NIMP). Interestingly, only in the high concentration of NIMP did coordination of activity at a network level begin to decrease again at 2 days post-exposure and persisted on day 6 post-exposure. Notably, cell viability was not affected during or after NIMP exposure. Also, while the catalytic activity of AChE decreased during NIMP exposure, its activity recovered once NIMP was removed. Gene expression analysis suggests that human iPSC-derived neurons and primary human astrocytes resulted in altered genes related to the cell’s interaction with the extracellular environment, its intracellular calcium signaling pathways, and inflammation, which could have contributed to how neurons communicated at a network level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Micro–Global Positioning Systems for Identifying Nightly Opportunities for Marburg Virus Spillover to Humans by Egyptian Rousette Bats

Marburg virus disease, caused by Marburg and Ravn orthomarburgviruses, emerges sporadically in sub-Saharan Africa and is often fatal in humans. The natural reservoir is the Egyptian rousette bat (ERB), which sheds virus in saliva, urine, and feces. Frugivorous ERBs discard test-bitten and partially eaten fruit, potentially leaving infectious virus behind that could be consumed by other susceptible animals or humans. Historically, 8 of 17 known Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been linked to human encroachment on ERB habitats, but no linkage exists for the other 9 outbreaks, raising the question of how bats and humans might intersect, leading to virus spillover. We used micro–global positioning systems to identify nightly ERB foraging locations. ERBs from a known Marburg virus–infected population traveled long distances to feed in cultivated fruit trees near homes. Our results show that ERB foraging behavior represents a Marburg virus spillover risk to humans and plausibly explains the origins of some past outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

C3F: Collaborative Container-based Model Coupling Framework

Solving complex real-world grand challenge problems requires in-depth collaboration of researchers from multiple disciplines. Such collaboration often involves harnessing multiscale and multi-dimensional data and combining models from different fields to simulate systems. However, the progress on this front has been limited mainly due to significant gaps in domain knowledge and tools that are typically employed in silos of the domains. Researchers from different fields face considerable barriers to understanding and reusing each other’s data/models in order to collaborate effectively. For example, in solving the global sustainability problems, researchers from hydrology, climate science, agriculture, and economics need to run their respective models to study different components of the global and local food, energy and water systems while, at the same time, need to interact with other researchers and integrate the results of one model with another. Developing this kind of model coupling workflow calls for (1) a large amount of data being processed and exchanged across domains and organizations, (2) identifying and processing the output of one model to make it ready for integration into another model, (3) controlling the workflow dynamically so that it runs until a certain convergence condition or other criteria is met, and (4) close collaboration among the modelers to explore, tune, and test the configuration and data transformation needed to link the models. We have developed C3F, a flexible collaborative model coupling framework to help researchers accelerate their model integration and linking efforts by leveraging advanced cyberinfrastructure such as high-performance computing and virtual containers. In this paper, we describe our experience and lessons learned in developing this cyberinfrastructure solution to support the linking of Water Balance Model (WBM) and SIMPLE-G agricultural economic model in an NSF funded INFEWS project and a DOE-funded Program on Coupled Human and Earth Systems (PCHES) to study the implications of groundwater scarcity for food-energy-water systems. The C3F model coupling framework can be extended to facilitate other model linkages as well.

containerization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Precise Motion Control of Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA)

Off-highway heavy-duty vehicles have been long-standing users of hydraulic systems for power transmission and control. However, traditional hydraulic systems suffer from significant energy losses which lead to increased operating costs and a larger carbon footprint due to higher CO2 emissions. Improving the efficiency of these mobile machines is crucial not only for reducing their environmental impact but also for saving billions of dollars in operating costs. Currently, the state-of-the-art Load Sensing Architecture uses throttling valves for control, which significantly reduces its efficiency and does not recuperate energy from over-running loads. Researchers have developed several architectures such as Common Pressure Rail systems, Displacement Control, STEAM, and Electrohydraulic Architecture to improve the efficiency of off-road mobile machines. However, each of these architectures has its drawbacks. To increase system efficiency and take advantage of electrification benefits, our research group has developed a novel Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA). The HHEA can significantly improve efficiency, decrease the size of electrical components, and maintain control performance. This new architecture has the potential to revolutionize the off-highway mobile machine industry and lead to a more sustainable future. The HHEA uses a set of common pressure rails to provide the majority of power to the actuators via power-dense hydraulics and uses electric motors for precise control and power modulation. In the context of off-road mobile machines, energy savings are undoubtedly important but it is equally important to consider the machines’ ability to perform tasks with precision and accuracy according to given commands. Therefore, precise motion control is of utmost importance to maintain the utility of Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA). The HHEA presents a unique challenge to motion control due to the discrete pressure changes that occur when the system switches between selected pressure rails. These changes are made to minimize system inefficiencies or to keep the system within the torque capability of the electric motor. Hence, it is important to solve the motion control challenges for HHEA. This thesis aims at developing an effective motion control strategy for HHEA. The dissertation presents a two-tiered control strategy for HHEA, comprising a high-level and a low-level controller. The primary responsibility of the high- level controller is to optimize energy efficiency by making informed pressure rail selections. On the other hand, the low-level controller is focused on achieving precise motion control of the HHEA, which is crucial for realizing the desired reference trajectories. To achieve this, the low-level controller utilizes a passivity-based backstepping integral controller as the nominal control, which handles the motion control between two pressure rail switches. Additionally, a separate least norm controller is utilized as a transition controller to manage motion control during pressure rail transitions. The effectiveness of the combined control strategy is demonstrated through experiments conducted on two hardware-in-the-loop testbeds. Furthermore, the HHEA is installed on the boom and stick actuators of a backhoe arm to build a Human-in-the-Loop system that a human operator can control. A real-time rail switching algorithm is developed to determine pressure rail switching based on present duty cycle information from the operator. Modifications have been made to the human-machine interface to achieve more intuitive control. Modifications include performing control in the task-oriented coordinates, incorporating pressure feedback to enhance control with physical interaction, and using velocity field control to simplify multi-degree-of-freedom tasks and to enable novice operators to perform them with reduced risk, improved efficiency, and productivity. The research in this dissertation makes significant contributions to the field of off-road mobile machine control, providing a novel and effective control strategy for the HHEA, and demonstrating the potential for simplified machine operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Striatal dopamine synthesis and cognitive flexibility differ between hormonal contraceptive users and nonusers

In rodents and nonhuman primates, sex hormones are powerful modulators of dopamine (DA) neurotransmission. Yet less is known about hormonal regulation of the DA system in the human brain. Using positron emission tomography (PET), we address this gap by comparing hormonal contraceptive users and nonusers across multiple aspects of DA function: DA synthesis capacity via the PET radioligand 6-[ 18 F]fluoro-m-tyrosine ([ 18 F]FMT), baseline D2/3 receptor binding potential using [ 11 C]raclopride, and DA release using methylphenidate-paired [ 11 C]raclopride. Participants consisted of 36 healthy women (n = 15 hormonal contraceptive users; n = 21 naturally cycling/non users of hormonal contraception), and men (n = 20) as a comparison group. A behavioral index of cognitive flexibility was assessed prior to PET imaging. Hormonal contraceptive users exhibited greater DA synthesis capacity than NC participants, particularly in dorsal caudate, and greater cognitive flexibility. Furthermore, across individuals, the magnitude of striatal DA synthesis capacity was associated with cognitive flexibility. No group differences were observed in D2/3 receptor binding or DA release. Analyses by sex alone may obscure underlying differences in DA synthesis tied to women’s hormone status. Hormonal contraception (in the form of pill, shot, implant, ring, or intrauterine device) is used by ~400 million women worldwide, yet few studies have examined whether chronic hormonal manipulations impact basic properties of the DA system. Findings from this study begin to address this critical gap in women’s health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Artificial Intelligence in Detection and Mitigation of Human Factor Errors in Nuclear Power Plants: A Review

Human factors and ergonomics have played an essential role in increasing the safety and performance of operators in the nuclear energy industry. In this critical review, we examine how artificial intelligence (AI) technologies can be leveraged to mitigate human errors, thereby improving the safety and performance of operators in nuclear power plants (NPPs). First, we discuss the various causes of human errors in NPPs. Next, we examine the ways in which AI has been introduced to and incorporated into different types of operator support systems to mitigate these human errors. We specifically examine (1) operator support systems, including decision support systems, (2) sensor fault detection systems, (3) operation validation systems, (4) operator monitoring systems, (5) autonomous control systems, (6) predictive maintenance systems, (7) automated text analysis systems, and (8) safety assessment systems. Finally, we provide some of the shortcomings of the existing AI technologies and discuss the challenges still ahead for their further adoption and implementation to provide future research directions.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increasing risk of cascading hazards in the central Himalayas

Cascading hazards are becoming more prevalent in the central Himalayas. Primary hazards (e.g., earthquakes, avalanches, and landslides) often trigger secondary hazards (e.g., landslide dam, debris flow, and flooding), compounding the risks to human settlements, infrastructures, and ecosystems. Risk management strategies are commonly tailored to a single hazard, leaving human and natural systems vulnerable to cascading hazards. In this commentary, we characterize diverse natural hazards in the central Himalayas, including their cascading mechanisms and potential impacts. A scientifically sound understanding of the cascading hazards, underlying mechanisms, and appropriate tools to account for the compounding risks are crucial to informing the design of risk management strategies. Here, we also discuss the need for an integrated modeling framework, reliable prediction and early warning system, and sustainable disaster mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗