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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Using Synchronization as an Indicator of Controllability in a Fleet of Water Heaters

Peak reduction is an important concern that can help reduce the growing stress on distribution grid and allow to defer investments in new capacity. However, the growing concern for customer privacy and comfort may impact the performance of load control for residential devices. Water heaters represent a convenient way of reducing peak due to their ability to store thermal energy for future use. In this paper, we developed a methodology to help utilities gain more insight with respect to the impact of load control efforts for shaving peak with no necessary information about the water heaters except the device status (on/off). To this end, we use a fleet of water heaters in a controlled residential neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our findings show that convergence in device status can serve as a proxy for peak shifting during hours of the evening peak.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Phase-Change Materials and Operating Periods on Load Shifting for Thermal Storage Heat Pumps in European Climate Zones

As the reliance on heat pumps (HPs) for space conditioning increases worldwide, ex-tensive grid strains during utility peak hours are expected. Significant research efforts focus on investigating the use of integrated thermal energy storage (TES) systems to reduce peak energy demands. Conventionally, TES systems are often integrated to store and provide either cooling or heating, but not both. In this work, a single room-temperature phase-change material (PCM)-TES was integrated for dual-mode opera-tion with an R290 air-to-water 10.5 kW (3-Ton) HP. Two PCM melting temperatures (17°C, 22°C) were assessed to investigate their impact on system performance and cost reductions for Milan, Italy (4A); Barcelona, Spain (3A); and Oslo, Norway (6A). HP and HP-TES performance maps were generated using Modelica-based transient models and co-simulated with a prototype residential building using the Spawn of En-ergyPlusTM with simple rule-based controls. Our simulations indicate that PCM-17°C provided annual cost savings at higher peak-to-off-peak cost ratios, as the demand re-duction dominated the savings potential. The recharge energy costs and requirements became more dominant at lower cost ratios, making PCM-22°C more beneficial at lower cost ratios. Finally, despite Oslo's heating-dominated climate, the utility peak hours favor cooling demand reductions, making PCM-17°C more appealing. In all cases, the cost savings potential stabilized between 4 – 10% regardless of cost ratio, suggesting that system-level component and operation control optimization is required to maximize cost savings further.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience: A Case Study

As renewable energy technologies are increasingly adopted, they pose an opportunity to improve the sustainability and resilience of distributed grids, especially when their design and operation is coordinated as a hybrid power plant. When included in hybrid power plants, distributed wind turbines in particular have the potential to enhance the resilience of distributed grids in areas with good wind resource, due to their ability to provide more consistent generation and ancillary services as compared to photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels. Despite this benefit, U.S. distributed wind adoption is lower than other comparable renewable energy technologies. In this study, we seek to demonstrate how hybrid power plants that include distributed wind turbines can contribute to distribution grid resilience by meeting loads (especially critical loads) more consistently, increasing reserve capacity, and providing value to customers during outages. To demonstrate these contributions, we integrate three separate frameworks and apply them to a case study in a rural electric cooperative in Iowa. Through this case study, we simulate and compare hybrid power plant design and operation during two hazard events: a tornado that causes a 48-hour distribution outage and a winter weather event that causes a 6-hour generation outage. The inclusion of a hybrid power plant that leverages 1) increased battery duration and 2) advanced forecasting and dispatch strategies that reserve capacity leading up to a hazard event best reduce lost loads as well as diesel consumption that would otherwise be used to meet those loads during short- and long-duration hazard events. Depending on the hybrid power plant capacity and operation, we find that the outage mitigation value of a hybrid power plant (measured in value to customers to avoid an outage and avoided lost revenues for the utility) is significant in both hazard events; adding wind, solar, and battery assets to the existing system adds about $50-$100M in avoided lost load and at least $4-$8k in utility value in the tornado hazard event, and $570k-$2.2M in avoided lost load and at least $220-$650 in utility value in the winter hazard scenario. In both the tornado and winter hazard scenarios, optimizing the operation of the hybrid system for resilience can lend similar value as increasing battery duration by 5 MWh for the lower capacity systems considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Power Market: 2023 Data

Voluntary green power, for this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the U.S. voluntary green power market. In 2023, about 9.7 million retail electricity customers procured about 319 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing a 17% increase over sales in 2022. Estimated voluntary green power market sales represented about 44% of non-hydropower renewable energy sales and about 8% of all U.S. retail electricity sales in 2023. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement. The U.S. voluntary green power market is undergoing a clear shift toward long-term contracts, driven primarily by increasingly ambitious corporate renewable energy procurement targets.

2023↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic scheduling for commercial building cooling systems: considering uncertainty in zone temperature prediction

Here, this paper presents the first attempt to address the uncertainty in zone temperature prediction with stochastic optimization. The uncertain zone temperature is a process uncertainty and has not been considered in the existing stochastic optimization for building control. To fill this gap, we proposed a novel formulation of stochastic optimization to handle process uncertainty in building control. Specifically, we first examined the accuracy of a typical linear model for predicting zone temperature. We then formulated the scheduling of the building cooling system as a stochastic optimization problem over a 24-hour look-ahead period to minimize the electricity cost of the studied building cooling system. After that, we applied the proposed stochastic load scheduling (SLS) to a direct expansion (DX) cooling system that serves a medium office building. Through simulation with a detailed building energy simulation software, EnergyPlus, we evaluated the operational cost and the thermal comfort compared with a deterministic load scheduling. The operation cost of scheduling was found to vary with the level of zone temperature prediction uncertainty. The proposed SLS can mitigate the impacts of uncertain zone temperature predictions on both operational cost and thermal comfort. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed SLS works better when the uncertainty level is more significant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Switch Opening and Exchange Method for Stochastic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

The purpose of distribution network reconfiguration (DNR) is to determine the optimal topology of an electricity distribution network, which is an efficient measure to reduce network power losses. Electricity load demand and photovoltaic (PV) output are uncertain and vary with time of day, and will affect the optimal network topology. Single-hour deterministic DNR is incapable of handling this uncertainty and variability. Therefore, this paper proposes to solve a multi-hour stochastic DNR (SDNR). Existing solution methods for DNR are either inaccurate or excessively time-consuming, and are therefore incapable of solving multi-hour SDNRs for large distribution networks. In this regard, a switch opening and exchange (SOE) method is proposed. Starting from a looped network with all switches closed, the SOE consists of three steps. The first step is to sequentially open the switches until all of the loops are opened. The second and third steps modify the status of branches obtained in the first step to obtain better radial topologies. Five test systems are used to validate the accuracy and fast solution speed of the SOE and the superiority of multi-hour SDNR over single-hour deterministic DNR.

distribution network reconfiguration↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine Learning-Assisted Framework to Control Thermally Anisotropic Building Envelopes in Residential Buildings

To curb the energy consumption of buildings and their related CO2 emissions, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) —a multi-layer design comprising insulation materials and metal foils connected to thermal loops. In this study, a machine learning-assisted framework was developed to control the TABE in residential buildings to reduce the computation load for future optimal rule-based control and application. First, a 2D finite element model was established in COMSOL to calculate the hourly heat flux through exterior walls installed with the TABE. Then, TABE wall heat fluxes were simulated for various given indoor and outdoor boundary conditions, as well as thermal loops fluid temperatures and flow rates. Since the finite element simulations are computationally expensive, an artificial neural network (ANN) was then trained to use as a proxy of the finite element (COMSOL) modeling. Finally, the trained ANN model was coupled with the EnergyPlus model to predict the energy consumption of a US Department of Energy prototype single-family house installed with the TABE. An optimal simple rule-based control was determined from predefined rules for a case study. The results demonstrate that the developed machine learning–assisted framework can reduce 99.9% of the computation time while efficiently managing residential building energy for installed TABE walls.

Shen, Zhenglai↗
DOE OSTI2020

FY20 Status Report on Creep Rupture Testing to Support the Development of Alloy 709 Code Case

This report provides an update on the status of the creep rupture testing on the first commercial heat of Alloy 709 in support of the Alloy 709 Code Case development. A creep test laboratory has been set up at ANL that comprises of 15 indirectly loaded test frames capable of testing ASTM-size specimens of the commercial heat of Alloy 709. The systems are equipped with high temperature furnaces capable of operation up to 1000°C in an air environment. During FY18, uniaxial ASTM-sized creep specimens were fabricated from 9 Alloy 709 plates that were processed by AOD, ESR, and ESR-homogenized routes and subsequently solution annealed at 1050, 1100, and 1150°C, and creep-rupture tests were performed at 330MPa and 600°C. The test results led to the down selection of the ESR-1100°C condition to support the code case. In FY19, 15 creep-rupture tests of the ESR-1100°C material, requiring the use of Type K thermocouples, were initiated to support the 100,000-hour Code Case. 8 tests were completed in FY19. In FY20, 6 tests were completed at the time of writing this report. In addition, 1 more test were loaded in FY20, using Type S thermocouples, and was completed. This report presents the data from the completed tests in FY20 and also the microstructural characterization of the fractured specimens. The creep data enabled the preliminary analysis of the creep behavior of this material. The characterization showed that in brittle fractures, the pores were narrow and thin, and elongated in the direction perpendicular to the loading direction, while in ductile fractures, the pores were much rounder. Dense precipitates were observed in all the samples, the size of which grew with test temperature. Some of the precipitates could be identified to be M23C6 based on their cuboid shape.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Grid Resilience through Smart Charge Management: Findings from Maryland’s Pilot

This report presents research findings from a four-year Smart Charge Management (SCM) pilot program conducted by Maryland’s largest electric utilities—Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE), Potomac Electric Power Company (Pepco), and Delmarva Power & Light (DPL)—to evaluate strategies for optimizing electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and enhancing grid stability. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory collaborated with all project partners and examined the effectiveness of Time-of-Use (TOU) and Load Balancing (LB) strategies in managing peak demand, deferring costly infrastructure upgrades, and reducing grid constraints at the feeder level. Using charging data from over 4,600 EV drivers, the study analyzed SCM’s impact on the distribution systems of BGE and Pepco, which consists of over 2000 feeders. Unlike prior research that focused on system-wide trends or synthetic feeders, this analysis offers granular, feeder-level insights based on real-world operational data. It highlights how transformer density, load profiles, and infrastructure constraints influence smart charging performance. Results show feeder-level conditions play a crucial role in SCM effectiveness, with most feeders benefiting more from LB, while TOU-based SCM may be sufficient for others. By 2035, LB reduced peak charging loads by 27% on average, compared to 23% under TOU-based SCM, though some feeders saw reductions exceeding 35%, while others experienced minimal impact. Feeders with higher transformer utilization and limited capacity benefited more from LB, which more effectively distributed charging demand during off-peak hours. Beyond reducing grid constraints, SCM offers long-term operational and financial benefits. By shifting EV charging demand strategically, utilities can optimize asset utilization, delay infrastructure investments, and enhance grid performance. In terms of infrastructure upgrade deferrals, at the feeder level, LB consistently reduced peak charging loads and resulting infrastructure upgrade costs, particularly in high EV enrollment areas, decreasing the number of overloaded transformers by up to 35%, while TOU-based SCM achieved 20-30% reductions depending on feeder characteristics. At the system level, LB has the potential to defer total upgrade costs by $\$$186 million for BGE, compared to $\$$159 million under TOU-based SCM. For Pepco, TOU-based SCM performed slightly better, deferring upgrade costs by $\$$30 million, compared to $\$$29 million under LB. Section 4.5 reviews some of the system differences between BGE and Pepco. However, as EV adoption scales, TOU-based SCM will introduce secondary peak charging loads, reinforcing the need for more advanced, adaptive SCM approaches to prevent new grid challenges. As EV adoption continues to grow, feeder-level managed charging strategies will be essential for mitigating grid stress, improving infrastructure efficiency, and maintaining energy affordability for consumers. This report provides critical insights for utilities, Public Utility Commissions (PUCs), and state agencies on the role of feeder-specific smart charging in infrastructure planning, policy development, and grid modernization. The findings underscore the importance of tailored, data-driven SCM solutions that align with local grid conditions, ensuring a resilient, cost-effective transition to increasing EV adoption while safeguarding distribution system performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Heat Treatment on Microstructure and Mechanical Property of 316L Stainless Steel Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The advanced non-light water reactor designs (Gen IV reactors), including molten salt/ very high temperature/ sodium-cooled and lead-cooled fast reactors, typically operate at higher temperatures and more extreme radiation conditions than light water reactors. An intrinsic part of the deployment and progress of Gen IV reactor designs is selecting the most suitable structural material for a specific application. Additive manufacturing (AM), a fairly new process of making physical, three-dimensional objects from a computer design file, is going to completely change the way of design, build and certify nuclear systems. It offers a range of opportunities to produce complex geometries from existing materials, offers new routes for processing of previously difficult to process materials, allows for design of new high-performance materials, and finally facilitates hybridization of dissimilar materials. This emerging technology has successfully produced cars, wind turbine blade molds and even live cells. It could also open up big opportunities for the nuclear industry to quickly deploy technologies at a fraction of the cost. So far, AM techniques have been preliminarily applied in the field of nuclear reactors, including the classical parts such as the pressure vessel of a small reactor with 508-III steel, the bottom nozzle of a fuel assembly with 304L steel, the fuel cladding with zirconium alloy and the integrated impeller of a pump and the multi-channel valve body with 316L steel [6,7]. The AM applications for operating nuclear reactors started in auxiliary plant components and have slowly migrated to metallic reactors and core components, but many of these are not safety critical components. Although many parts used for nuclear reactors have been fabricated by AM techniques, practical applications in engineering are still a long way off due to the uncertainty factors focused on the processing, material properties, analysis methods and application standards, which feeds the safety and life-cycle of the nuclear reactor. Due to rapid, repeated heating and cooling during production, a high dislocation density was present in the AM material. This microstructure feature is unstable at elevated temperature while high temperature is one of the typical operation environments for nuclear reactors. Thus, it is important to understand the thermal effect on the microstructure of AM material. The objectives of this study are to investigate the effect of heat treatment on the microstructure and mechanical properties of 316L stainless steel produced by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing, and to determine an appropriate heat treatment practice that will be applied to the lightweight AM lattice-structured material with the same chemistry. The heat treatment study consisted of annealing the samples at a temperature range of 800 to 1200 oC with a 50 oC increment for different times (1-24 hours), followed by vacuum or air cooling. Microstructural characterization was carried out by Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Grain size and crystallographic orientation were investigated by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD). Vickers hardness tests with a 0.5 kg load were employed to determine the hardness of samples after different heat treatments. After heat treatment, the random crystallographic orientation was preserved, and the volume fraction of high-angle grain boundaries (grain boundary misorientation =15 oC) remained the same. The dislocation density decreased with annealing temperature due to recovery. The fine subgrain structures in the as-printed specimen were quite stable up to 1200 oC. Minimal recrystallization was observed up to 1200 oC. Recrystallization initiated only after 8.5 hours at 1200 oC. The SEM images did not show obvious dependence of microstructure on cooling rate. The hardness of the specimens decreased with increasing annealing temperature as a result of the decrease in dislocation density. It is interesting to note that the AM material showed very similar hardness to the wrought material when annealing at similar temperature, although the microstructures are very different. Annealing at 1050 oC for 1 hour followed by air cooling was selected as the heat treatment procedure for the lattice designed lightweight AM 316L material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Guide for Improved Resource Adequacy Assessments in Evolving Power Systems: Institutional and Technical Dimensions

This paper identifies and evaluates issues in traditional resource adequacy (RA) assessment practices, and how adjusting these practices may affect and depend on existing institutional arrangements for planning and procurement. The paper proposes a technical-institutional roadmap that would allow regulators in vertically-integrated jurisdictions and system planners and operators in restructured jurisdictions to revise RA practices across a range of components. First, we compile a critical review of current RA assessment practices based on (1) interviews with RA practitioners and (2) a review of recent technical literature. We find that (i) RA may need to expand beyond capacity adequacy to ensure energy adequacy – relevant for energy-limited resources such as storage – and potentially some form of ancillary service adequacy (e.g. enough ramping-up and ramping-down capability in the system); (ii) chronological hourly simulations for all hours in the year are the current best practice; (iii) metrics and models used do not reflect economic criteria in system operation and loss of load; and (iv) there is a need to improve representation of weather dependencies and weather data. Second, we review planning and RA reports for several private and public entities that plan generation and/or transmission infrastructure in the continental U.S. to look for existing practices involving resilience assessments. We find no systematic treatment of the costs of extreme weather and other hazards, the benefits of resilience, and resilience metrics in planning analyses and no systematic treatment of resilience metrics, methods, and outcomes for resource adequacy purposes. Third, we create a technical framework for probabilistic RA assessment and use it to study how key choices about how to model power system operations affect the values that are obtained for RA metrics. We find that (i) non-economic dispatch schemes that ignore economic objectives can lead to accurate RA assessments when coordinated with detailed operational strategies; (ii) multi-year data is critical to capture a wide variety of system conditions; (iii) not incorporating transmission limits into RA assessment could lead to substantial underestimation of traditional “expected value” RA metrics; and (iv) new RA metrics that capture event-specific shortfall characteristics should be used as supplements to traditional metrics. Finally, we examine RA assessments and use this information to propose a guide of evolving industry standards for resource adequacy assessments in resource planning and transmission planning. We report minimum, best, and frontier practices for temporal resolution of assessments, metrics and targets, weather data, load forecasting, characterization of variable renewable resources, characterization of transmission and market transactions, RA modeling and integration with planning processes, and capacity accreditation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

The effect of price-based demand response on carbon emissions in European electricity markets: The importance of adequate carbon prices

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors (MEFs), which compared to grid mix emission factors (XEFs), are cumbersome to calculate due to the complex characteristics of national electricity markets. This study, therefore, proposes two merit order-based methods to approximate hourly MEFs and applies them to readily available datasets from 20 European countries for the years 2017–2019. Based on the calculated electricity prices, standardized daily load shifts were simulated which indicated that carbon emissions increased for 8 of the 20 countries and by 2.1% on average. Thus, under specific circumstances, PBDR leads to carbon emissions increases, mainly due to the economic advantage fuel sources such as lignite and coal have in the merit order. MEF-based load shifts reduced the mean resulting carbon emissions by 35%, albeit with 56% lower monetary cost savings compared to price-based load shifts. Finally, by repeating the load shift simulations for different carbon price levels, the impact of the carbon price on the resulting carbon emissions was analyzed. The Spearman correlation coefficient between carbon intensity and marginal cost along the German merit order substantially increased with increasing carbon price. The coefficients were -0.13 for the 2019 carbon price of 24.9 €/t, 0 for 42.6 €/t, and 0.4 for 100.0 €/t. Therefore, with adequate carbon prices, PBDR can be an effective tool for both economical and environmental improvement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Evidence on Latency in a Fleet of Controllable Water Heaters

Demand response is an important emerging part of smart grids with wide coverage in theoretical and modeling research. However, experimental evidence on the real-life behavior of controllable loads is still limited. We present observations regarding latency and communication aspects of the operation on a fleet of residential water heaters in a smart neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our analysis shows that latency in water heaters is not constant and does not follow a Gaussian distribution. We also find that there is a systematic relationship between latency and hour of the day. Latency was found to increase during morning and evening hours compared to the afternoon. These findings could help better plan deployment of control for demand response programs. Understanding delays associated with controlling smart devices is crucial for proper design and algorithm development for optimization, frequency of dispatch, and override detection.

communication delay↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗