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At least 271 records · Page 15

Spatially Complete Surface Albedo Data Sets: Value-Added Products Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Spectral land surface albedo is an important parameter for describing the radiative properties of the Earth. Accordingly it reflects the consequences of natural and human interactions, such as anthropogenic, meteorological, and phenological effects, on global and local climatological trends. Consequently, albedos are integral parts in a variety of research areas, such as general circulation models (GCMs), energy balance studies, modeling of land use and land use change, and biophysical, oceanographic, and meteorological studies. The availability of global albedo data over a large range of spectral channels and at high spatial resolution has dramatically improved with the launch of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft in December 1999. However, lack of spatial and temporal coverage due to cloud and snow effects can preclude utilization of official products in production and research studies. We report on a technique used to fill incomplete MOD43 albedo data sets with the intention of providing complete value-added maps. The technique is influenced by the phenological concept that within a certain area, a pixel s ecosystem class should exhibit similar growth cycle events over the same time period. The shape of an area s phenological temporal curve can be imposed upon existing pixel-level data to fill missing temporal points. The methodology will be reviewed by showcasing 2001 global and regional results of complete albedo and NDVl data sets.

Moody, E. G.↗

Heart Rhythm Monitoring in the Constellation Lunar and Launch/Landing EVA Suit: Recommendations from an Expert Panel

Currently there are several physiological monitoring requirements for Extravehicular Activity (EVA) in the Human-Systems Interface Requirements (HSIR) document, including continuous heart rhythm monitoring. However, it is not known whether heart rhythm monitoring in the lunar surface space suit is a necessary capability for lunar surface operations or in launch/landing suit the event of a cabin depressurization enroute to or from the moon. Methods: Current US astronaut corps demographic information was provided to an expert panel of cardiovascular medicine experts, including specialists in electrophysiology, exercise physiology, interventional cardiology and arrhythmia. This information included averages for male/female age, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, cholesterol, inflammatory markers, echocardiogram, ranges for coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores for long duration astronauts, and ranges for heart rate (HR) and metabolic (MET) rates obtained during microgravity and lunar EVA. Results: The panel determined that no uncontrolled hazard was likely to occur in the suit during lunar surface or contingency microgravity ops that would require ECG monitoring in the highly screened US astronaut population. However having the capability for rhythm monitoring inside the vehicle (IVA) was considered critical to manage an astronaut in distress. Discussion: Heart rate (HR) monitoring alone allows effective monitoring of astronaut health and function. Consequently, electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring capability as a clinical tool is not essential in the lunar or launch/landing space suit. However, the panel considered that rhythm monitoring could be useful in certain clinical situations, it was not considered required for safe operations. Also, lunar vehicles should be required to have ECG monitoring capability with a minimum of 5-lead ECG (derived 12- lead) for IVA medical assessments.

Scheuring, Richard A.↗

Aerosol transport pathways and source attribution in China during the COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract. Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, human activities and industrial productions were strictly restricted during January–March 2020 in China. Despite the fact that anthropogenic aerosol emissions largely decreased, haze events still occurred. Characterization of aerosol transport pathways and attribution of aerosol sources from specific regions are beneficial to air quality and pandemic control strategies. This study establishes source–receptor relationships in various regions covering all of China during the COVID-19 outbreak based on the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). Our analysis shows that PM2.5 burden over the North China Plain between 30 January and 19 February is mostly contributed by local emissions (40 %–66 %). For other regions in China, PM2.5 burden is largely contributed from nonlocal sources. During the most polluted days of the COVID-19 outbreak, local emissions within the North China Plain and eastern China contributed 66 % and 87 % to the increase in surface PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. This is associated with the anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure at the location of the climatological East Asia trough and the consequently weakened winds in the lower troposphere, leading to the local aerosol accumulation. The emissions outside China, especially those from South Asia and Southeast Asia, contribute over 50 % to the increase in PM2.5 concentration in southwestern China through transboundary transport during the most polluted day. As the reduction in emissions in the near future is desirable, aerosols from long-range transport and unfavorable meteorological conditions are increasingly important to regional air quality and need to be taken into account in clean-air plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Blockchain based Communication Architectures with Applications to Private Security Networks

Existing communication protocols in high consequence security networks are highly centralized. While this naively makes the controls easier to physically secure, external actors require fewer resources to disrupt the system because there are fewer points in the system can be destroyed or interrupted without the entire system failing. We present a solution to this problem using a proof-of-work-based blockchain implementation built on MultiChain. We construct a test-bed network containing two types of data input: visual imagers and microwave sensor information. These data types are ubiquitous in perimeter intrusion detection security systems and allow a realistic representation of a real-world network architecture. The cameras in this system use an object detection algorithm to nd important targets in the scene. The raw data from the camera and the outputs from the detection algorithm are then placed in a transaction on the distributed ledger. Similarly, microwave data is used to detect relevant events and are placed in a transaction. These transactions are then bundled into blocks and broadcast to the rest of the network using the Bitcoin-based MultiChain protocol. We develop five tests to examine the security metrics of our network. We performed the five security metric test using different sized networks from 7 to 39 nodes to determine how the metrics scale with respect to size. We nd that when compared to a centralized architecture our implementation provides a resiliency increase that is expected from a blockchain-based protocol without slowing the system so much that a human operator would notice. Furthermore, our approach is able to detect tampering in real time. Based on these results, we theorize that security networks in general could use a blockchain-based approach in a meaningful way.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pilot interaction with cockpit automation 2: An experimental study of pilots' model and awareness of the Flight Management System

Technological developments have made it possible to automate more and more functions on the commercial aviation flight deck and in other dynamic high-consequence domains. This increase in the degrees of freedom in design has shifted questions away from narrow technological feasibility. Many concerned groups, from designers and operators to regulators and researchers, have begun to ask questions about how we should use the possibilities afforded by technology skillfully to support and expand human performance. In this article, we report on an experimental study that addressed these questions by examining pilot interaction with the current generation of flight deck automation. Previous results on pilot-automation interaction derived from pilot surveys, incident reports, and training observations have produced a corpus of features and contexts in which human-machine coordination is likely to break down (e.g., automation surprises). We used these data to design a simulated flight scenario that contained a variety of probes designed to reveal pilots' mental model of one major component of flight deck automation: the Flight Management System (FMS). The events within the scenario were also designed to probe pilots' ability to apply their knowledge and understanding in specific flight contexts and to examine their ability to track the status and behavior of the automated system (mode awareness). Although pilots were able to 'make the system work' in standard situations, the results reveal a variety of latent problems in pilot-FMS interaction that can affect pilot performance in nonnormal time critical situations.

Sarter, Nadine B.↗

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 2.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

asteroids↗

A MOOSE-Based Model for Fission Product Transport and Source Term Estimation for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

Thanks to fuel elements containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles combined with a low core power density and passive feedback mechanisms leading to modest temperature rises in the event of accidental events, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) offer a high degree of reliability in terms of fission product retention. While the anticipated source term for HTGRs is expected to be very low, it is important to provide a quantitative estimate of radiological releases during nominal and accidental conditions. Here, we propose a computationally efficient mechanistic source term methodology relying on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) for tracking fission product transport from TRISO particles up to the coolant pressure boundary, as well as modeling the transport and potential deposition of these nuclides inside the reactor coolant loop. The proposed computational scheme is applied to estimate source term inventories for a representative 10-MW(thermal) prismatic high-temperature microreactor and is qualitatively compared against known release fractions. In addition to providing an alternate analysis tool, this MOOSE model can help reactor designers quantify the influence of key design parameters relevant for studies of radiological dose consequences.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Giant Impact as the Likely Origin of Different Twins in the Kepler-107 Exoplanet System

Measures of exoplanet bulk densities indicate that small exoplanets with radius less than 3 Earth radii (R(sub ⊕)) range from low-density sub-Neptunes containing volatile elements to higher-density rocky planets with Earth-like or iron-rich (Mercury-like) compositions. Such astonishing diversity in observed small exoplanet compositions may be the product of different initial conditions of the planet-formation process or different evolutionary paths that altered the planetary properties after formation. Planet evolution may be especially affected by either photoevaporative mass loss induced by high stellar X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) flux or giant impacts. Although there is some evidence for the former, there are no unambiguous findings so far about the occurrence of giant impacts in an exoplanet system. Here, we characterize the two innermost planets of the compact and near-resonant system Kepler-107 (ref. 9). We show that they have nearly identical radii (about 1.5–1.6R(sub ⊕)), but the outer planet Kepler-107 c is more than twice as dense (about 12.6 g cm–3) as the innermost Kepler-107 b (about 5.3 g cm−3). In consequence, Kepler-107 c must have a larger iron core fraction than Kepler-107 b. This imbalance cannot be explained by the stellar XUV irradiation, which would conversely make the more-irradiated and less-massive planet Kepler-107 b denser than Kepler-107 c. Instead, the dissimilar densities are consistent with a giant impact event on Kepler-107 c that would have stripped off part of its silicate mantle. This hypothesis is supported by theoretical predictions from collisional mantle stripping, which match the mass and radius of Kepler-107 c.

Bonomo, Aldo S.↗

The Local Tissue Environment During the September 29, 1989 Solar Particle Event

The solar particle event (SPE) of September 29, 1989, produced an iron-rich spectrum with energies approaching 1 GeV/amu with an energy power index of 2.5. These high charge and energy (HZE) ions of the iron-rich SPEs challenge conventional methods of SPE shield design and assessment of astronaut risks. Shield and risk assessments are evaluated using the HZETRN code with computerized anatomical man (CAM) model for astronaut s body tissues. Since the HZE spectra decline rapidly with energy and HZE attenuation in materials is limited by their penetration power, details of the mass distributions about the sensitive tissues (shielding materials and the astronaut's body) are important determining factors of the exposure levels. Typical space suit and lightly shielded structures allow significant contributions from HZE components to some critical body tissues and have important implications on the models for risk assessment. Only a heavily shielded equipment room of a space vehicle or habitat provides sufficient shielding for the early response at sensitive organs from this event. The February 23, 1956 event of similar spectral characteristics and ten times this event may have important medical consequences without a well-shielded region.

Kim, M.-H. Y.↗

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗

Early-time γ -ray constraints on cosmic-ray acceleration in the core-collapse SN 2023ixf with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Context. While supernova remnants (SNRs) have been considered the most relevant Galactic cosmic ray (CR) accelerators for decades, core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) could accelerate particles during the earliest stages of their evolution and hence contribute to the CR energy budget in the Galaxy. Some SNRs have indeed been associated with TeV γ -rays, yet proton acceleration efficiency during the early stages of an SN expansion remains mostly unconstrained. Aims. The multi-wavelength observation of SN 2023ixf, a Type II supernova (SN) in the nearby galaxy M 101 (at a distance of 6.85 Mpc), opens the possibility to constrain CR acceleration within a few days after the collapse of the red super-giant stellar progenitor. With this work, we intend to provide a phenomenological, quasi-model-independent constraint on the CR acceleration efficiency during this event at photon energies above 100 MeV. Methods. We performed a maximum-likelihood analysis of γ -ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope up to one month after the SN explosion. We searched for high-energy, non-thermal emission from its expanding shock, and estimated the underlying hadronic CR energy reservoir assuming a power-law proton distribution consistent with standard diffusive shock acceleration. Results. We do not find significant γ -ray emission from SN 2023ixf. Nonetheless, our non-detection provides the first limit on the energy transferred to the population of hadronic CRs during the very early expansion of a CCSN. Conclusions. Under reasonable assumptions, our limits would imply a maximum efficiency on the CR acceleration of as low as 1%, which is inconsistent with the common estimate of 10% in generic SNe. However, this result is highly dependent on the assumed geometry of the circumstellar medium, and could be relaxed back to 10% by challenging spherical symmetry. Consequently, a more sophisticated, inhomogeneous characterisation of the shock and the progenitor’s environment is required before establishing whether or not Type II SNe are indeed efficient CR accelerators at early times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 16, No. 2, March-April 1975]

Nuclear Safety covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. The scope is limited to topics relevant to the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, safety considerations in regard to the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 127 Quality Assurance in the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants by Sidney A. Bernsen, 141 1974 ANS Topical Meeting on Fast Reactor Safety by M. H. Fontana; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 150 GBR-4 Protection Systems: Failures and Their Consequences by Peter Burgsmüller, J. J. Dekais, Albert Krähe, Raffaello Pignatelli, and Gottfried Vieider, 162 Standby Emergency Power Systems. Part 2—The Later Plants by E. W. Hagen; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 180 Radiotoxic Hazard Measure for Buried Solid Radioactive Waste by J. Hamstra, 190 The Thirteenth AEC Air-Cleaning Conference by D. W. Moeller, D. W. Underhill, and M. W. First, 203 Book Review: Nuclear Criticality Safety; CONSEQUENCES OF EFFLUENT RELEASE: 204 Environmental Radiation Effects of Nuclear Facilities in New York State by M. S. Terpilak and B. L. Jorgensen, 222 Book Review: Thermal Ecology; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 223 Set-Point Drift in Nuclear Power-Plant Safety-Related Instrumentation Adapted by the Nuclear Safety Staff, 224 Diesel-Generator Operating Experience at Nuclear Power Plants, 227 Summary of Operating U. S. Power Reactors as of Jan. 1, 1975, 232 Selected Safety-Related Occurrences Reported in November and December 1974 Compiled by William R. Casto, 235 Recent Occurrences at Nuclear Reactors and Their Causes Compiled by William R. Casto; CURRENT EVENTS: 243 General Administrative Activities Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 251 Action on Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 266 Action on Nonreactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B Cottrell, 268 Proposed Rule Changes as of Jan. 1, 1975; MISCELLANY: 149 Course in Italy on High-Energy Radiation Dosimetry and Protection (Announcement), 250 Course at Northwestern on Safety of Light-Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Plants (Announcement), 266 Symposium of the Combined Effects on the Environment of Radioactive, Chemical, and Thermal Releases from the Nuclear Industry (Announcement), 271 Short Course on Engineering for Extreme Winds and Tornadoes (Announcement), 272 Three 1-Week Courses at MIT on Nuclear Power-Reactor Safety (Announcement), 272 Harvard University Short Courses (Announcement).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION ON A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

The goal of this study is to address fundamental limitations to achieving diesel-like efficiencies in heavy duty on-highway natural gas (NG) engines. Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to higher efficiency engines. This study explores enabling technologies for development of high efficiency stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engines. These include design strategies for fast and stable combustion and higher dilution tolerance. Additionally, advanced control methodologies are implemented to maintain stable operation between knock and misfire limits. To implement controlled end- gas autoignition (C-EGAI) strategies a Combustion Intensity Metric (CIM) is used for ignition control with the use of a Woodward large engine control module (LECM). Tests were conducted using a single cylinder, variable compression ratio, cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine with baseline conditions of 900 RPM, engine load of 800 kPa indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), and stoichiometric air/fuel ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) tests were performed using a custom EGR system that simulates a high pressure EGR loop and can provide a range of EGR rates from 0 to 40%. The experimental measurements included the variance of EGR rate, compression ratio, engine speed, IMEP, and CIM. These five variables were optimized through a Modified Box- Benken design Surface Response Method (RSM), with brake efficiency as the merit function. A positive linear correlation between CIM and f-EGAI was identified. Consequently, CIM was used as the feedback control parameter for C-EGAI. As such, implementation of C-EGAI effectively allowed for the utilization of high EGR rates and CRs, controlling combustion between a narrower gap between knock and lean limits. The change from fixed to parametric ignition timing with CIM targeted select values of f-EGAI with an average coefficient of variance (COV) of peak pressure of 5.4. The RSM efficiency optimization concluded with operational conditions of 1080 RPM, 1150 kPa IMEP, 10.55:1 compression ratio, and 17.8% EGR rate with a brake efficiency of 21.3%. At this optimized point of peak performance, a f-EGAI for C-EGAI was observed at 34.1% heat release due to auto ignition, a knock onset crank angle value of 10.3° aTDC and ignition timing of - 24.7° aTDC. This work has demonstrated that combustion at a fixed f-EGAI can be maintained through advanced ignition control of CIM without experiencing heavy knocking events.

Cooperative Fuel Research Engine, Auto Ignition, E↗

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

Orasanu, Judith↗

Assessment of Evolving TRMM-Based Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Methods and Their Impacts on Hydrologic Prediction in a High-Latitude Basin

The real-time availability of satellite-derived precipitation estimates provides hydrologists an opportunity to improve current hydrologic prediction capability for medium to large river basins. Due to the availability of new satellite data and upgrades to the precipitation algorithms, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis real-time estimates (TMPA-RT) have been undergoing several important revisions over the past ten years. In this study, the changes of the relative accuracy and hydrologic potential of TMPA-RT estimates over its three major evolving periods were evaluated and inter-compared at daily, monthly and seasonal scales in the high-latitude Laohahe basin in China. Assessment results show that the performance of TMPA-RT in terms of precipitation estimation and streamflow simulation was significantly improved after 3 February 2005. Overestimation during winter months was noteworthy and consistent, which is suggested to be a consequence from interference of snow cover to the passive microwave retrievals. Rainfall estimated by the new version 6 of TMPA-RT starting from 1 October 2008 to present has higher correlations with independent gauge observations and tends to perform better in detecting rain compared to the prior periods, although it suffers larger mean error and relative bias. After a simple bias correction, this latest dataset of TMPA-RT exhibited the best capability in capturing hydrologic response among the three tested periods. In summary, this study demonstrated that there is an increasing potential in the use of TMPA-RT in hydrologic streamflow simulations over its three algorithm upgrade periods, but still with significant challenges during the winter snowing events.

hydrologic prediction↗

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum-North Atlantic Area

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, in this work, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Doppler-radar observation of the evolution of downdrafts in convective clouds

A detailed analysis of the 20 July 1977 thunderstorm complex which formed and evolve over the South Park region in Central Colorado is presented. The storm was extensively analyzed using multiple Doppler radar and surface mesonet data, developed within an environment having very weak wind shear. The storm owed its intensification to the strength of the downdraft, which was nearly coincident with the region where the cloud had grown. The noteworthy features of this storm were its motion to the right of the cloud-level winds, its multicellular nature and discrete propagation, its north-south orientation, and its relatively large storm size and high reflectivity factor (55 dBZ). This scenario accounts for the observed mesoscale and cloud-scale event. A line of convergence was generated at the interface between the easterly upslope winds and westerly winds. During stage II, the convergence line subsequently propagated down the slopes of the Mosquito Range, and was the main forcing mechanism for the development of updraft on the west flank of the storm. The formation of downdraft on the eastern side of updraft blacked surface inflow, and created a detectable gust front. As the original downdraft intensified, the accumulation of evaporatively-chilled air caused the intensification of the mesohigh, which likely destroyed the earlier convergence line and created a stronger convergence line to the east, which forced up-lifting of the moist, westerly inflow and caused the formation of updraft to the east. An organized downdraft circulation, apparently maintained by precipitation drag and evaporational cooling, was responsible in sustaining a well-defined gust front. The storm attained its highest intensity as a consequence of merging with a neighboring cloud. The interaction of downdrafts or gust fronts from two intense cells appeared to be the primary mechanism of this merging process as suggested by Simpson et al. (1980). The merging process coincided with more rain than occurred in unmerged echoes.

Motallebi, N.↗