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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon Limitation Leads to Thermodynamic Regulation of Aerobic Metabolism

Organic matter (OM) metabolism in freshwater ecosystems is a critical source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical cycles, yet the processes regulating aerobic respiration in aquatic environments remain poorly understood. Aerobic respiration is typically predicted through kinetic controls such as organic carbon and oxygen concentrations, while assuming thermodynamic regulation has no influence. The role of OM thermodynamics has been mainly explored under anaerobic conditions; however, recent observations have suggested that thermodynamic properties of OM may influence aerobic respiration rates. Here, we explicitly test OM thermodynamics as a key regulator of aerobic respiration. We pair controlled microcosm experiments with ultrahigh-resolution OM characterization to show that aerobic respiration increases with OM thermodynamic favorability under carbon limitation. We also demonstrate a shift in the regulation of aerobic respiration from OM thermodynamics to nitrogen content when carbon is in excess, highlighting a central role for OM thermodynamics particularly in carbon-limited ecosystems. This illuminates a structural gap in aquatic biogeochemical models by demonstrating that both kinetic and thermodynamic constraints can modulate aerobic respiration. Our work therefore proposes a new conceptual model in which thermodynamic and nutrient limitations dually control aerobic respiration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using a Multi‐Institutional Ensemble of Watershed Models to Assess Agricultural Conservation Effectiveness in a Future Climate

This study investigates the combined impacts of climate change and agricultural conservation on the magnitude and uncertainty of nutrient loadings in the Maumee River Watershed, the second-largest watershed of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Two scenarios — baseline agricultural management and increased agricultural conservation — were assessed using an ensemble of five Soil and Water Assessment Tools driven by six climate models. The increased conservation scenario included raising conservation adoption rates from a baseline of existing conservation practices to feasible rates in the near future based on farmer surveys. This increased adoption of winter cover crops on 6%–10% to 60% of cultivated cropland; subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers on 35%–60% to 68% of cultivated cropland; and buffer strips intercepting runoff from 29%–34% to 50% of cultivated cropland. Increased conservation resulted in statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) reductions in annual loads of total phosphorus (41%), dissolved reactive phosphorus (18%), and total nitrogen (14%) under the highest emission climate scenario (RCP 8.5). While nutrient loads decreased with increased conservation relative to baseline management for all watershed models, different conclusions on the true effectiveness of conservation under climate change may be drawn if only one watershed model was used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

XANES spectroscopy of sulfides stable under reducing conditions

X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy is a powerful technique to quantitatively investigate sulfur speciation in geologically complex materials such as minerals, glasses, soils, organic compounds, industrial slags, and extraterrestrial materials. This technique allows non-destructive investigation of the coordination chemistry and oxidation state of sulfur species ranging from sulfide (2–oxidation state) to sulfate (6+ oxidation state). Each sulfur species has a unique spectral shape with a characteristic K-edge representing the s → p and d hybridization photoelectron transitions. As such, sulfur speciation is used to measure the oxidation state of samples by comparing the overall XANES spectra to that of reference compounds. Although many S XANES spectral standards exist for terrestrial applications under oxidized conditions, new sulfide standards are needed to investigate reduced (oxygen fugacity, f O 2 , below IW) silicate systems relevant for studies of extraterrestrial materials and systems. Sulfides found in certain meteorites (e.g., enstatite chondrites and aubrites) and predicted to exist on Mercury, such as CaS (oldhamite), MgS (niningerite), and FeCr 2 S 4 (daubréelite), are stable at f O 2 below IW-3 but rapidly oxidize to sulfate and/or produce sulfurous gases under terrestrial surface conditions. XANES spectra of these compounds collected to date have been of variable quality, possibly due to the unstable nature of certain sulfides under typical (e.g., oxidizing) laboratory conditions. A new set of compounds was prepared for this study and their XANES spectra are analyzed for comparison with potential extraterrestrial analogs. S K -edge XANES spectra were collected at Argonne National Lab for FeS (troilite), MnS (alabandite), CaS (oldhamite), MgS (niningerite), Ni 1–x S, NiS 2 , CaSO 4 (anhydrite), MgSO 4 , FeSO 4 , Fe 2 (SO 4 ) 3 , FeCr 2 S 4 (daubréelite), Na 2 S, Al 2 S 3 , Ni 7 S 6 , and Ni 3 S 2 ; the latter five were analyzed for the first time using XANES. These standards expand upon the existing S XANES end-member libraries at a higher spectral resolution (0.25 eV steps) near the S K -edge. Processed spectra, those that have been normalized and “flattened,” are compared to quantify uncertainties due to data processing methods. Future investigations that require well-characterized sulfide standards, such as the ones presented here, may have important implications for understanding sulfur speciation in reduced silicate glasses and minerals with applications for the early Earth, Moon, Mercury, and enstatite chondrites.

Anzures, Brendan A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of Groundwater Sampling Technologies, Including Passive Diffusion Sampling, for Radionuclide Contamination - 20205

Using traditional high-flow purge methods for long-term water quality monitoring of deep groundwater wells can be expensive, affect contaminant migration, and produce excessive volumes of discharge water that can be difficult to manage. The use of low-flow pumping methods and depth discrete bailers (DDBs) can reduce the cost of sampling deep groundwater wells. In general, using different pumping methods to obtain reproducible and representative groundwater can be challenging. Passive diffusion samplers (PDSs) have successfully been used in long-term monitoring for volatile organic compounds, major ions, and trace-elements, but application has been limited for stable and radioactive isotopes. Beginning in 2018, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted three sampling events to test the ability of PDSs and DDBs to obtain reproducible and representative groundwater samples. The sampled well is completed in a regional, permeable carbonate aquifer and is one in a set of wells that have historically been used for tritium tracer testing. All samples were obtained at 180 m (590 ft) below land surface (bls) in a 13.97 cm (5.5 inch) uncased well that has a total depth of 202 m (662 ft) bls. The first sampling event deployed a regenerated cellulose dialysis membrane (RCDM) PDS for 14 days with deionized water as the blank. The second sampling event deployed a RCDM for 27 days also with deionized water as the blank. The third sampling event deployed a Dual Membrane (DM) PDS for 65 days using a blank of tritium-dead carbonate water. The DM PDS was used to assess the effect of longer term deployment on tritium concentrations and address whether or not the PDSs reached equilibrium with ambient groundwater. The day after each of the three passive samplers were retrieved a DDB was used to obtain discrete non-integrated groundwater samples. For each DDB sampling day, the bailer was lowered into the well 10 consecutive times to determine if the water chemistry changed from the first to the last bailed sample. Quality assurance samples including blanks and duplicates were obtained during all three sampling events. All blank waters had tritium concentrations less than 21±33 pCi/L. Major ion (e.g. calcium, chloride, sodium, and sulfate) results were compared between all samples obtained with RCDM and DDB. Major ion concentrations showed a coefficient of variation of less than 6% between all RCDM and DDB samples; however, the coefficient of variation between the different deployment times and the two different methods for trace-element concentrations was much larger, particularly for manganese (82%), lead (41%), and zinc (33%). Stable isotope values were compared between the RCDM and DDB samples. The DDB sample results all fell within analytical uncertainty and were considered representative of the formation groundwater. The stable isotope values from the RCDM samples indicated that a longer deployment time was necessary to gain equilibrium and to obtain representative groundwater samples. Tritium results from groundwater samples obtained from the RCDM, DM, and DDB indicate that groundwaters obtained with PDSs produced tritium concentrations 2 to 3 times higher (between 1,426 and 3,060±87 pCi/L) than groundwaters obtained with a DDB (479 to 1,219±51 pCi/L). The longer the passive diffusion samplers were deployed, the higher the tritium concentration, suggesting that equilibrium with tritium was not reached within a 27-day deployment. DDB samples showed tritium results declining from the first to the last bailed sample for all three sampling events. This research suggests that tritium results from groundwater samples obtained from PDSs are more reproducible than samples obtained from DDBs. Also, PDSs likely do not accumulate isotopes of water but rather equilibrate with the ambient groundwater. On the other hand, both PDSs and DDBs were able to provide representative groundwater samples for major ions and have the potential to produce representative groundwater samples for stable isotopes of water (δD and δ{sup 18}O). Utilizing the most effective method for sampling groundwater is important for long-term groundwater monitoring. Quantifying the ability of passive diffusion groundwater samplers to obtain representative radioactive chemistry samples will help determine if these methods can be a useful alternative to pumping and purging wells for long-term monitoring. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of reservoir parameters and wellbore permeability uncertainties on CO 2 and brine leakage potential at the Shenhua CO 2 Storage Site, China

Here, this paper describes a system-level risk assessment for the Shenhua CO 2 storage site, China, using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). Here, we begin by determining the optimal number of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to achieve CO 2 and brine leakage result convergence. Then, we calculate mass CO 2 and brine leakage to the atmosphere and a hypothetical shallow aquifer. Finally, we assess the geochemical impacts in the event of leakage as if there were a shallow freshwater aquifer at the Shenhua site. Simulation results show that leakage results tend to stabilize after 300 Monte Carlo simulations. When the three wells on site are assigned a permeability of 10 -11 m 2 (representing significantly leaking wells), moderate CO 2 and brine leakages occur, and the percentage of CO 2 leakage exceeds the threshold value we set based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is, however, unlikely to be the case for the Shenhua site. For all the other scenarios, the CO 2 leakage is trivial although there is still the possibility of CO 2 leakage into the groundwater aquifer exceeding the 1% threshold over 1000 years, assuming constant legacy wellbore permeability. For the significantly leaking scenario, there is a 10% probability to have a moderate (2.7 × 10 7 m 3 ) leakage-affected volume in the shallow aquifer with the pH below 6.5, and a large (1.4 × 10 8 m 3 ) volume with the total dissolved solids (TDS) above 500 ppm, hence pH and TDS may be considered for site monitoring plans. Based on the simulation results, there is a very low probability of significant CO 2 /brine leakage through the existing wells at the Shenhua CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land Use Change Alters Soil Organic Carbon: Constrained Global Patterns and Predictors

Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha −1 ) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha −1 ), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha −1 ) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha −1 ), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha −1 ) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha −1 ) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reproducibility of Radiokrypton in Deep Desert Aquifers: Insights from a Decade of Research

Great technical advances have been achieved since the first atom-trap trace analysis (ATTA) -based radiokrypton application in Egypt, where 1 Myr old groundwater was discovered. Beyond advances in ATTA measurement capabilities, including reduction in sample size, analysis duration, and analytical uncertainty, major progress has been achieved over the past two decades in the sample collection and preparation techniques. These advances paved the expansion of ATTA-based noble gas applications to many other aquifers worldwide, illuminating the nature and flow pattern of deep groundwater systems. While the potential of this new analytical technique for old groundwater dating is well recognized, another important aspect yet to be examined is the reproducibility of radiokrypton in aquifers over time, i.e., how representative is a discrete groundwater sample, collected at a specific time and location, for the natural groundwater system? The likelihood of a negative answer is increased by flow-field disturbance in aquifers following massive groundwater abstraction. Here, in this work, we present repeated 81 Kr sampling and measurements in twenty-one sites over Israel, mostly of deep (up to 1 km) wells tapping confined aquifers in the arid to hyperarid Negev desert. The results demonstrate that radiokrypton measurements are indeed reproducible, even in cases where samples were collected as long as nine years apart and from highly productive (∼1 Mm 3 /yr order) pumping wells. Furthermore, many of the repeated measurements in this study (17 out of the 21 sites) were conducted with different ATTA Instruments in two different laboratories using slightly different sampling, preparation, and analysis techniques, yet with an overall good agreement. The consistency in the ATTA-based 81 Kr-dating results over time highlights the robustness of this state-of-the-art technique as a tool to unravel groundwater flow patterns and encourages further applications to many other yet-to-be-explored deep aquifers.

atom-trap trace analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nutrient Limitation Induces a Productivity Decline From Light‐Controlled Maximum

Abstract Nutrient impacts on productivity in stream ecosystems can be obscured by light limitation imposed by canopy cover and water turbidity, thereby creating uncertainties in linking nutrient and productivity regimes. Evaluations of nutrient limitations are often based on a response ratio (RR) quantifying productivity stimulation above ambient levels given augmented nutrient supply. This metric neglects the primacy of light effects on productivity. We propose an alternative approach to quantify nutrient limitations using a “decline ratio” (DR), which quantifies the productivity decline from the maximum established by light availability. The DR treats light as the first‐order control and nutrient depletion as a disturbance causing productivity decline, allowing separation of nutrient and light influences. We used DR to assess nutrient diffusing substrate (NDS) experiments with three nutrients (nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P], iron [Fe]) from five Greenland streams during summer, where light is not limited due to the lack of canopy and low turbidity. We tested two hypotheses: (a) productivity maximum (i.e., highest chlorophyll‐ a among NDS treatments) is controlled by light and (b) DR depends on both light and nutrients. The productivity maximum was strongly predicted by light ( R 2 = 0.60). The productivity decline induced by N limitation (i.e., DR N ) was best explained by light availability when parameterized with either dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration ( R 2 = 0.79) or N:Fe ratio ( R 2 = 0.87). These predictions outperformed predictions of RR for which light was not a significant factor. Reversing the perspective on nutrient limitation from “stimulation above ambient” to “decline below maximum” provides insights into both light and nutrient impacts on stream productivity.

Shin, Yuseung [School of Natural Resources and Env↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tower-Based Remote Sensing Reveals Mechanisms Behind a Two-phased Spring Transition in a Mixed-Species Boreal Forest

The boreal forest is a major contributor to the global climate system, therefore, reducing uncertainties in how the forest will respond to a changing climate is critical. One source of uncertainty is the timing and drivers of the spring transition. Remote sensing can provide important information on this transition, but persistent foliage greenness, seasonal snow cover, and a high prevalence of mixed forest stands (both deciduous and evergreen species) complicate interpretation of these signals. We collected tower-based remotely sensed data (reflectance-based vegetation indices and Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF]), stem radius measurements, gross primary productivity, and environmental conditions in a boreal mixed forest stand. Evaluation of this data set shows a two-phased spring transition. The first phase is the reactivation of photosynthesis and transpiration in evergreens, marked by an increase in relative SIF, and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperatures, and increased available soil moisture. The second phase is a reduction in bulk photoprotective pigments in evergreens, marked by an increase in the Chlorophyll-Carotenoid Index. Deciduous leaf-out occurs during this phase, marked by an increase in all remotely sensed metrics. The second phase is controlled by soil thaw. Our results demonstrate that remote sensing metrics can be used to detect specific physiological changes in boreal tree species during the spring transition. The two-phased transition explains inconsistencies in remote sensing estimates of the timing and drivers of spring recovery. Our results imply that satellite-based observations will improve by using a combination of vegetation indices and SIF, along with species distribution information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metabolic interactions underpinning high methane fluxes across terrestrial freshwater wetlands

Current estimates of wetland contributions to the global methane budget carry high uncertainty, particularly in accurately predicting emissions from high methane-emitting wetlands. Microorganisms drive methane cycling, but little is known about their conservation across wetlands. To address this, we integrate 16S rRNA amplicon datasets, metagenomes, metatranscriptomes, and annual methane flux data across 9 wetlands, creating the Multi-Omics for Understanding Climate Change (MUCC) v2.0.0 database. This resource is used to link microbiome composition to function and methane emissions, focusing on methane-cycling microbes and the networks driving carbon decomposition. We identify eight methane-cycling genera shared across wetlands and show wetland-specific metabolic interactions in marshes, revealing low connections between methanogens and methanotrophs in high-emitting wetlands. Methanoregula emerged as a hub methanogen across networks and is a strong predictor of methane flux. In these wetlands it also displays the functional potential for methylotrophic methanogenesis, highlighting the importance of this pathway in these ecosystems. Collectively, our findings illuminate trends between microbial decomposition networks and methane flux while providing an extensive publicly available database to advance future wetland research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall exclusion and fertilization effects on tropical dry forest tree plantations, a large-scale experiment

Abstract. Across tropical ecosystems, global environmental change is causing drier climatic conditions and increased nutrient deposition. Such changes represent large uncertainties due to unknown interactions between drought and nutrient availability in controlling ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP). Using a large-scale manipulative experiment, we studied for 4 years whether nutrient availability affects the individual and integrated responses of aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes to throughfall exclusion in 30-year-old mixed plantations of tropical dry forest tree species in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We used a factorial design with four treatments: control, fertilization (F), drought (D), and drought + fertilization (D + F). While we found that a 13 %–15 % reduction in soil moisture only led to weak effects in the studied ecosystem processes, NPP increased as a function of F and D + F. The relative contribution of each biomass flux to NPP varied depending on the treatment, with woody biomass being more important for F and root biomass for D + F and D. Moreover, the F treatment showed modest increases in maximum canopy cover. Plant functional type (i.e., N fixation or deciduousness) and not the experimental manipulations was the main source of variation in tree growth. Belowground processes also responded to experimental treatments, as we found a decrease in nodulation for F plots and an increase in microbial carbon use efficiency for F and D plots. Our results emphasize that nutrient availability, more so than modest reductions in soil moisture, limits ecosystem processes in tropical dry forests and that soil fertility interactions with other aspects of drought intensity (e.g., vapor pressure deficit) are yet to be explored.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for a Single Holocene Paleoseismic Event on the Pajarito Fault, Northern New Mexico

Low-slip rate fault systems tend to be less studied than their high-slip rate counterparts, and paleoseismic techniques used to study them may pose challenges in interpretation that differ from high-slip rate systems. A good example of this is the Pajarito fault system (PFS), a normal fault complex within the Rio Grande rift. Despite numerous previous paleoseismic trenching studies conducted on the PFS between 1990 and 2003, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its Holocene paleoseismic history, particularly for the primary Pajarito fault (PF). To further clarify the PF paleoseismic history, we present data from paleoseismic investigations of 6 trenches at 3 distinct locations along the PF. Though the totality of the age and structural data obtained in this study is complex and not entirely consistent with any one interpretation, a single Holocene paleoearthquake occurring younger than ∼1,600 to 2,300 kcal yr BP is the simplest interpretation. It is possible that the PF records two Holocene events, with a penultimate event 6.9–2.4 kcal yr BP event and the aforementioned most recent event (MRE) between 2.3 and 1.6 kcal yr BP. However, only a single wall of one trench, out of a total of 12 walls in our 6 trenches, provides evidence supporting that interpretation. This study finds evidence of a single late Holocene paleoseismic event on the PF and sparse evidence for 2 Holocene paleoseismic events on the PF and highlights the benefits of logging multiple trench walls to better understand the complexity that results from this low-slip rate, low-deposition-rate fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗