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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Further understanding “severe” climate risk

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Energy behaviours of northern California Girl Scouts and their families

Climate change is likely the most critical societal challenge to the futures of today's children. Mitigation will require a concerted effort to change household energy behaviour electricity use, transportation and food consumption patterns. A first step to changing behaviour is to better understand current behaviour and its intrapersonal (knowledge and attitudes), interpersonal (norms, communication and behaviour) and contextual (demographics and geography) correlates. To date, our understanding of the energy behaviours of children is limited. To begin to fill this gap, we report the results of a survey on the electricity, transportation and food-related energy behaviours of 323 fourth- and fifth-grade girls and their parents in 31 Girl Scout troops in Northern California. Our findings show positive attitudes and perceived norms toward energy-saving behaviours among child and adult respondents, but low or moderate levels of knowledge, communication, and behaviour, particularly for behaviours that require adult assistance. Girls' choices about electricity behaviours appear to be governed by intrapersonal and interpersonal influences, while transportation behaviour is constrained by geographic context. Food-related behaviour, particularly meat consumption, was not readily modelled. Policy and education-related implications for future interventions aimed at enhancing children's energy-saving behaviours are discussed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Boudet, H↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating energy efficiency potential in low-income households: A flexible and granular approach

This study presents a new approach to evaluating energy efficiency potential that provides a more accurate, granular, and flexible estimate of the cost-effective energy efficiency potential in households of various income ranges. Results from this work estimate that in U.S. single-family households with income less than 200% of the federal poverty level, energy efficiency packages tailored to maximize net present value could result in an estimated $13 billion per year in energy cost savings, or $670 per year for an average household, corresponding to about 1 EJ (0.9 quads) of annual primary energy savings. These types of metrics can be estimated for other geographies (regions, states, and counties) and for other ranges of household income. These results can be used by policymakers and program designers to improve the cost-effectiveness of income-qualified programs and to improve the equity of non-income-qualified programs. The results can also be used to understand how energy efficiency opportunities differ between urban and rural areas, as well as how energy efficiency can spur economic development in areas that have had high poverty rates for decades.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Temporal trends in air pollution exposure inequality in Massachusetts

Highlights: • We characterized longitudinal PM{sub 2.5} and NO{sub 2} inequality trends across Massachusetts. • Exposure inequality increased in urban, but not rural areas. • NO{sub 2} exposure inequality was greater in magnitude than PM{sub 2.5} inequality. • Observed inequality trends likely driven by spatiotemporal pollution shifts. Mounting evidence over the past several decades has demonstrated inequitable distribution of pollutants of ambient origin between sociodemographic groups in the United States. Most environmental inequality studies to date are cross-sectional and used proximity-based methods rather than modeled air pollution concentrations, limiting the ability to examine trends over time or the factors that drive exposure inequalities. In this paper, we use 1 km{sup 2} modeled PM{sub 2.5} and NO{sub 2} concentrations in Massachusetts over an 8-year period and Census demographic data to quantify inequality between sociodemographic groups and to develop a more nuanced understanding of the drivers and trends in longitudinal air pollution inequality. Annual-average population-weighted PM{sub 2.5} and NO{sub 2} concentrations were highest for urban non-Hispanic black populations (11.8 µg/m{sup 3} in 2003 and 8.4 µg/m{sup 3} in 2010, vs. 11.3 µg/m{sup 3} and 8.1 µg/m{sup 3} for urban non-Hispanic whites) and urban Hispanic populations (15.9 ppb in 2005 and 13.0 ppb in 2010, vs. 13.0 ppb and 10.2 ppb for urban non-Hispanic whites), respectively. While population groups experienced similar absolute decreases in exposure over time, disparities in population-weighted concentrations increased over time when quantified by the Atkinson Index, a relative inequality measure. Exposure inequalities were approximately one order of magnitude greater for NO{sub 2} compared to PM{sub 2.5}, were more pronounced in urban compared to rural geographies, and between racial/ethnic groups compared to income and educational attainment groups. Our results also revealed similar longitudinal PM{sub 2.5} and NO{sub 2} inequality trends using Census 2000 and Census 2010 data, indicating that spatio-temporal shifts in air pollution may best explain observed trends in inequality. These findings enhance our understanding of factors that contribute to persistent inequalities and underscore the importance of targeted exposure reduction strategies aimed at vulnerable populations and neighborhoods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Staying Current: A Community Readiness Framework for Marine Energy Applied to River Current Energy in Alaska

Marine energy-including wave, tidal, and river current energy-can provide a local energy source for rural and remote communities. Marine energy has the potential to bolster self-sufficiency and create economic opportunities while preserving ecological integrity. Communities may be interested in deploying, testing, and advancing these early-stage technologies to meet their needs. However, limited capacity, workforce constraints, and other barriers can challenge development. To better understand a community's interest in and preparedness for marine energy, we developed a suite of 150 'metrics of readiness.' Organized across seven categories-technical, social, environmental, strategic, governance, economic, financial-and 29 subcategories, the metrics provide a holistic perspective beyond the technical aspects of an energy device. We conducted a desktop application of the metrics of readiness for Igiugig, Alaska. The metrics were applied retrospectively for two points in time: before (2009) and after (2018) in-stream testing of a river current energy device. By documenting changes among categories and subcategories of the metrics, our results show the evolving nature of community readiness for river current energy. They also illustrate how our interdisciplinary framework captures the investment in environmental effects research and commitment to strategic planning that occurred in Igiugig. In future applications, we envision the framework could be used to foster public engagement in marine energy, collaborate with communities in project development, shape capacity building activities, prioritize investments, and inform research needs. While our study focuses on enabling river current energy in Alaska, the metrics of readiness have the potential to inform implementation of other renewable technologies with communities in new geographies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

National forest timber bids and export price interlinkages in the USA: The bounds testing approach

We examine the interrelationships of national forest timber bid and log export prices for Douglas-fir (Region 6) in 2003–2021 and loblolly pine (Region 8) using time-series stationarity and bounds-testing approaches. The analysis shows the difference in time series properties across different geographies and time scales. Bid prices for these dominant species of timber in each of two Forest Service regions are found to be stationary, while log export prices for those same species appear to be non-stationary. Bounds testing conducted with autoregressive distributed lag modeling methods provides strong evidence for a cointegrating relationship between timber bid prices and log export prices in Forest Service Region 6. In Region 8, evidence for a cointegrating relationship was weak. Here, the share of salvage wood in national forest timber sales is a statistically significant control variable in all models estimated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resampling and data augmentation for short-term PV output prediction based on an imbalanced sky images dataset using convolutional neural networks

Integrating photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by potentially large fluctuations in power generation. In recent years, sky image-based PV output prediction using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has emerged as a promising approach to forecasting fluctuations. A key challenge is imbalanced sky image datasets: because of the geography of solar PV system installations, sky image datasets are often rich in sunny condition data but deficient in cloudy condition data. This imbalance contrasts with the fact that model errors are dominated by cloudy condition performance. In this study, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the enrichment and augmentation of an imbalanced sky images dataset for two PV output prediction tasks: nowcasting (predicting concurrent PV output) and forecasting (predicting 15-minute-ahead future PV output). We empirically examine the efficacy of using different resampling and data augmentation approaches to create a rebalanced dataset for model development. A three-stage greedy search is used to determine the optimal resampling approach, data augmentation techniques and over-sampling rate. The results show that for the nowcast problem, resampling and data augmentation can effectively enhance the model performance, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) by an average of 4%, or a 15 std. (standard deviation) of improvement compared to the variability of the baseline model. In contrast, the treatment RMSE for the forecast problem nearly always overlaps the baseline performance at the ± 2 std. level. The optimal resampling approach expands on the original dataset by over-sampling the minority cloudy data, with the best results from large over-sampling rate (e.g., 4 ~ 6 times over-sampling of cloudy images).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Redesigning large-scale multimodal transit networks with shared autonomous mobility services

Here, this study addresses a large-scale multimodal transit network design problem, with Shared Autonomous Mobility Services (SAMS) as both transit feeders and an origin-to-destination mode. The framework captures spatial demand and modal characteristics, considers intermodal transfers and express services, determines transit infrastructure investment and path flows, and generates transit routes. A system-optimal multimodal transit network is designed with minimum total door-to-door generalized costs of users and operators, satisfying transit origin-destination demand within a pre-set infrastructure budget. Firstly, the geography, demand, and modes in each zone are characterized with continuous approximation. The decisions of network link investment and multimodal path flows in zonal connection optimization are formulated as a minimum-cost multi-commodity network flow (MCNF) problem and solved efficiently with a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) solver. Subsequently, the route generation problem is solved by expanding the MCNF formulation to minimize intramodal transfers. The model is illustrated through a set of experiments with the Chicago network comprised of 50 zones and seven modes, under three scenarios. The computational results present savings in traveler journey time and operator cost demonstrating the potential benefits of collaboration between multimodal transit systems and SAMS.

Autonomous vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Load‐Balancing Intense Physics Calculations to Embed Regionalized High‐Resolution Cloud Resolving Models in the E3SM and CESM Climate Models

Abstract We design a new strategy to load‐balance high‐intensity sub‐grid atmospheric physics calculations restricted to a small fraction of a global climate simulation's domain. We show why the current parallel load balancing infrastructure of Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Energy Exascale Earth Model (E3SM) cannot efficiently handle this scenario at large core counts. As an example, we study an unusual configuration of the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) that embeds a binary mixture of two separate cloud‐resolving model grid structures that is attractive for low cloud feedback studies. Less than a third of the planet uses high‐resolution (MMF‐HR; sub‐km horizontal grid spacing) relative to standard low‐resolution (MMF‐LR) cloud superparameterization elsewhere. To enable MMF runs with Multi‐Domain cloud resolving models (CRMs), our load balancing theory predicts the most efficient computational scale as a function of the high‐intensity work's relative overhead and its fractional coverage. The scheme successfully maximizes model throughput and minimizes model cost relative to precursor infrastructure, effectively by devoting the vast majority of the processor pool to operate on the few high‐intensity (and rate‐limiting) high‐resolution (HR) grid columns. Two examples prove the concept, showing that minor artifacts can be introduced near the HR/low‐resolution CRM grid transition boundary on idealized aquaplanets, but are minimal in operationally relevant real‐geography settings. As intended, within the high (low) resolution area, our Multi‐Domain CRM simulations exhibit cloud fraction and shortwave reflection convergent to standard baseline tests that use globally homogenous MMF‐LR and MMF‐HR. We suggest this approach can open up a range of creative multi‐resolution climate experiments without requiring unduly large allocations of computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration

Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076 ) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on the US Puget Sound Regional Hydroclimate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two major modes of climate variability with global hydroclimate impacts. However, their impacts often depend on the local climate and geography, resulting in large regional differences. In this study, we examined the connection of ENSO and MJO to the hydroclimate conditions and extremes in the Puget Sound (PS) basin located in the US Pacific Northwest coast. The results indicate that ENSO significantly modulates the cold season temperature and temperature-mediated hydrologic processes. El Niño cold seasons feature less snow accumulation and intensified surface runoff, even if the precipitation amount is similar to La Niña cold seasons. Therefore, El Niño causes more snow drought (in the form of compound dry and warm snow drought) and shifts the surface runoff seasonality by reducing runoff in the subsequent warm season. MJO phases 6–7 trigger more extreme precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff in the PS region at 0–9–day lags, and such connections are robust regardless of how the ENSO signals are removed. Meanwhile, MJO modulates large-scale extreme weather systems (e.g., atmospheric rivers) with significant enhancement during phases 6–7. ENSO impacts have intensified in the 2001–2020 period, whereas MJO impacts showed some phase shift in this period. This study reveals ENSO and MJO phases 6–7 as useful predictors of the PS hydroclimate anomalies/extremes at seasonal and daily scales, respectively. Utilizing these findings holds the potential to improve regional water resources prediction and management.

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Crowdsourcing the Frontier: Advancing Hybrid Physics‐ML Climate Simulation via a $\$$50,000 Kaggle Competition

Subgrid machine-learning (machine learning [ML]) parameterizations have the potential to introduce a new generation of climate models that incorporate the effects of higher-resolution physics without incurring the prohibitive computational cost associated with more explicit physics-based simulations. However, important issues, ranging from online instability to inconsistent online performance, have limited their operational use for long-term climate projections. To more rapidly drive progress in solving these issues, domain scientists and ML researchers opened up the offline aspect of this problem to the broader ML and data science community with the release of ClimSim, a NeurIPS Data sets and Benchmarks publication, and an associated Kaggle competition. This paper reports on the downstream results of the Kaggle competition by coupling emulators inspired by the winning teams' architectures to an interactive climate model (including full cloud microphysics, a regime historically prone to online instability) and systematically evaluating their online performance. Our results demonstrate that online stability in the low-resolution real-geography setting is reproducible across multiple diverse architectures, which we consider a key milestone. All tested architectures exhibit strikingly similar offline and online biases, though their responses to architecture-agnostic design choices (e.g., expanding the list of input variables) can differ significantly. Multiple Kaggle-inspired architectures achieve state-of-the-art results on certain metrics such as zonal mean bias patterns and global Root Mean Squared Error, indicating that crowdsourcing the essence of the offline problem is one path to improving online performance in hybrid physics-AI climate simulation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Report-Back of Research Results Strategies for Personal Chemical Exposure Data

Background. Report-back of research results (RBRR) is ethically supported and highly requested by participants yet lacks broadly transferable guidelines for RBRR. Effective RBRR must be responsive to target audience needs and may not be addressed by a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Objective. Within a subset of our 19 studies on RBRR, we had the unique opportunity to carry out a comparative analysis of RBRR strategies across cohorts with similar development and evaluation methods, yet distinct in life stage, geography, number and type of chemicals assessed, and community contexts. Methods. We highlight key outcomes from three environmental health studies: an ongoing New York, NY cohort (Fair Start; n=486) and a Detroit, MI cohort (CLEAR; n=34) assessing exposure to ambient urban pollution during pregnancy, and a longitudinal cohort in Houston, TX (Houston-3H) following Hurricane Harvey (n=312). Focus group and survey data were analyzed to identify lessons learned and explore how RBRR supports understanding of environmental health. Results. Commonalities emerged in RBRR development, design, organization, and data visualization, as well as in how RBRR can contribute to an understanding of health-environment connections. Differences included preferences for individual versus community level findings, as well as distinguishable contextual considerations. For pregnancy cohorts, messaging was framed with cultural sensitivity, and to avoid unintended consequences of parental guilt due to prenatal exposures. In the post-disaster Houston-3H study, participants requested additional transparency regarding sampling design and study rationale. Significance. All RBRR case studies reported chemicals without known regulatory or health guidelines, so results were contextualized within the study population. Participants across cohorts requested multi-study comparisons to better understand their results beyond their communities. While foundational RBRR elements (e.g. plain language, graphic organizers) may supersede cohort-specific differences, RBRR should be personalized to encompass perceptions of health across different life-stage, cultural, and environmental contexts.

Vogel, Taylor J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗