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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

US FDA Postmarketing Requirements and Commitments: A Systematic Assessment of Clinical Pharmacology Studies and Their Impact on US FDA Prescribing Information

Abstract Many of the conditions for the safe and effective use of new molecular entities (NMEs) are understood at the time of initial drug approval. However, some remaining knowledge gaps can be addressed after drug approval through postmarketing requirements (PMRs) or commitments (PMCs) established by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Our objective was to conduct an assessment of clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs established at the time of approval and evaluate the impact of fulfilled PMRs and PMCs on prescription information (PI). This analysis included clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs established for NMEs approved between 2009 and 2020. Of the 1171 PMRs and PMCs, over one‐third were clinical pharmacology–related. Of these, 46% were to evaluate drug interactions, 16% were to evaluate drug dosing in patients with hepatic impairment, and 10% were related to dose. The majority (57%) of PMRs and PMCs were fulfilled at the time of analysis, with a median time to fulfillment of approximately 2.3 years. The majority (94%) of the fulfilled PMRs and PMCs, either with or without a PI revision, resulted in new or modified instructions for use or supported existing instructions for use. This is the first time that clinical pharmacology–related PMRs and PMCs have been catalogued and analyzed to understand their impact on PI. An understanding of the knowledge gaps that exist at the time of drug approval could inform the most effective and efficient methods for evidence generation prior to and after new drug approval.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Definitive Assessment of the Accuracy, Variationality, and Convergence of Relativistic Coupled Cluster and Density Matrix Renormalization Group in 100-Orbital Space

Accuracy, variationality, and convergence underpin the reliability of modern electronic structure methods, yet definitive benchmarks in the relativistic regime remain elusive due to the absence of numerically exact full configuration interaction (CI) references. Recent algorithmic advances in the CI framework, enabled by the small-tensor-product (STP) decomposition approach, have dramatically extended the tractable size of the configuration space, making numerically exact CI calculations feasible in large active spaces previously beyond reach. In this paper, we employ the recently developed STP-CI framework to perform large-scale numerically exact CI calculations and directly benchmark relativistic coupled cluster and density matrix renormalization group methods. Definitive benchmarking of approximate relativistic electronic structure methods is ensured through the application of the gap theorem, which provides rigorous error bounds on the CI reference and establishes a controlled standard for assessing accuracy, variationality, and convergence.

Chemical calculations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An energetics assessment of benzo[ a ]tetracene and benzo[ a ]pyrene as triplet–triplet annihilation emitters

Optical upconversion (UC) of low energy photons into high energy photons enables solar cells to harvest photons with energies below the band gap of the absorber, reducing the transmission loss. UC based on triplet–triplet annihilation (TTA) in organic chromophores can upconvert photons from sunlight, albeit with low conversion efficiency. We utilize three energy-based criteria to assess the UC potential of TTA emitters in terms of the quantum yield (QY) and the anti-Stokes shift. The energy loss in the singlet pathway of an emitter encounter complex, where a high energy photon is emitted, determines whether a chromophore may undergo TTA. The energy loss in the triplet pathway, which is the main competing process, impacts the TTA QY. The energy difference between the lowest singlet and triplet excitation states in TTA emitters sets an upper bound for the anti-Stokes shift of TTA-UC. Using the energetic criteria evaluated by time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations, we find that benzo[a]tetracene, benzo[a]pyrene, and their derivatives are promising TTA emitters. The energetics assessment and computer simulations could be used to efficiently discover and design more candidate high-performance TTA emitters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the thermal oxidation of nuclear graphite relevant to high-temperature gas cooled reactors

Thermal oxidation of nuclear graphite components is highly undesirable because it can cause structural and property degradation that negatively affect a reactor's intended operation. In this work, the body of knowledge of nuclear graphite oxidation is highlighted, including when O 2 , H 2 O, and/or CO 2 are the oxidant. Oxidation conditions relevant to high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (i.e., when oxidation could occur either as an acute or chronic phenomenon) are emphasized. Here, the objective is to summarize graphite oxidation data in a practical and accessible way to inform future research and regulatory requirements. Although each grade of nuclear graphite is different, the oxidation mechanism has underlying commonalities. Although oxidation behavior is grade dependent, the general temperature dependence is well described by a sequence of elementary steps which become rate limiting. Because the regime transition temperature depends on sample microstructure, size, and oxidant supply rate, extrapolating results beyond the experimental range should be done cautiously. Gravimetric oxidation rate measurements generally replicate well. However, caution must be exercised when rates are estimated by other methods or for samples that deviate significantly in size. Air oxidation data for IG-110, NBG-18, and PCEA graphite is critically reviewed to emphasize this point. Despite the amount of experimental data, gaps remain. Sample size and shape effects are not fully explained. Data on the oxidant penetration depth are insufficient. Analytical assessments demonstrate that lower temperature oxidation does not necessarily imply that oxidation is uniform throughout the bulk. Oxidation occurs faster at higher temperature but is more localized to the exposed surface. Paradoxically, at equal mass loss percentage, low temperature oxidation leads to greater property degradation than at high temperature. The isolated effect of oxidation is important; however, a gap remains in the systematic understanding of any potential effect of neutron irradiation on graphite structure and reactivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

One hundred priority questions for advancing seagrass conservation in Europe

Societal Impact Statement Seagrass ecosystems are of fundamental importance to our planet and wellbeing. Seagrasses are marine flowering plants, which engineer ecosystems that provide a multitude of ecosystem services, for example, blue foods and carbon sequestration. Seagrass ecosystems have largely been degraded across much of their global range. There is now increasing interest in the conservation and restoration of these systems, particularly in the context of the climate emergency and the biodiversity crisis. The collation of 100 questions from experts across Europe could, if answered, improve our ability to conserve and restore these systems by facilitating a fundamental shift in the success of such work. Summary Seagrass meadows provide numerous ecosystem services including biodiversity, coastal protection, and carbon sequestration. In Europe, seagrasses can be found in shallow sheltered waters along coastlines, in estuaries & lagoons, and around islands, but their distribution has declined. Factors such as poor water quality, coastal modification, mechanical damage, overfishing, land‐sea interactions, climate change and disease have reduced the coverage of Europe’s seagrasses necessitating their recovery. Research, monitoring and conservation efforts on seagrass ecosystems in Europe are mostly uncoordinated and biased towards certain species and regions, resulting in inadequate delivery of critical information for their management. Here, we aim to identify the 100 priority questions, that if addressed would strongly advance seagrass monitoring, research and conservation in Europe. Using a Delphi method, researchers, practitioners, and policymakers with seagrass experience from across Europe and with diverse seagrass expertise participated in the process that involved the formulation of research questions, a voting process and an online workshop to identify the final list of the 100 questions. The final list of questions covers areas across nine themes: Biodiversity & Ecology; Ecosystem services; Blue carbon; Fishery support; Drivers, Threats, Resilience & Response; Monitoring & Assessment; Conservation & Restoration; Governance, Policy & Management; and Communication. Answering these questions will fill current knowledge gaps and place European seagrass onto a positive trajectory of recovery.

Nordlund, Lina Mtwana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental and socio-economic Pareto-front trade-off analysis of U.S. PET packaging material in a circular economy

Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for ultrasonic nondestructive examination of welding defects: A systematic review

Recent years have seen a substantial increase in the application of machine learning (ML) for automated analysis of nondestructive examination (NDE) data. One of the applications of interest is the use of ML for the analysis of data from in-service inspection of welds in nuclear power and other industries. These types of inspections are performed in accordance with criteria described in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code and require the use of reliable NDE techniques. The rapid growth in ML methods and the diversity of possible approaches indicate a need to assess the current capabilities of ML and automated data analysis for NDE and identify any gaps or shortcomings in current ML technologies as applied to the automated analysis of NDE data. In particular, there is a need to determine the impact of ML on the NDE reliability. This paper discusses the findings from a literature survey on the current state of ML for the automated analysis of data from ultrasonic NDE of weld flaws. It discusses an overview of ultrasonic NDE as used for weld inspections in nuclear power and other industries. Herein, data sets and ML models used in the literature are summarized, along with a generally applicable workflow for ML. Findings on the capabilities, limitations and potential gaps in feature selection, data selection, and ML model optimization are discussed. The paper identified several needs for quantifying and validating the performance of ML methods for ultrasonic NDE, including the need for common data sets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Promises and technological prospects of two-dimensional Rashba materials

The Rashba spin–orbit coupling effect, primarily arising from structural-inversion asymmetry in periodic crystals, has garnered considerable attention due to its tunability and potential applications in spintronics. Its capability to manipulate electron spin without an external magnetic field opens new avenues for spintronic device design, particularly in semiconductor technology. Within this framework, 2D Rashba materials hold special interest due to their inherent characteristics, which facilitate miniaturization and engineering capabilities. In this Perspective article, we provide an overview of recent advancements in the research of 2D Rashba materials, aiming to offer a comprehensive understanding of the diverse manifestations and multifaceted implications of the Rashba effect in material science. Rather than merely presenting a list of materials, our approach involves synthesizing various viewpoints, assessing current trends, and addressing challenges within the field. Our objective is to bridge the gap between fundamental research and practical applications by correlating each material with the necessary advancements required to translate theoretical concepts into tangible technologies. Furthermore, we highlight promising avenues for future research and development, drawing from insights gleaned from the current state of the field.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single-shot ultrafast dynamics of nanosecond pulsed plasmas: Transition from ps–ns nonequilibrium to near-full ionization

The ultrafast multi-stage evolution of state-defining properties in atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas is quantified using single-discharge, jitter-free, continuous streak-sweep spectroscopy of N 2 (C → B) molecular and N + /O + ionic species with a single-shot time resolution as short as ∼160 ps. An early period of extreme nonequilibrium is observed with vibrational temperatures [T V (C)] dropping from ∼8000 K at <200 ps after plasma breakdown to <4000 K within ∼1 ns, with near-ambient rotational temperatures [T R (C)] ∼ 300 K due to limited collisional energy transfer. This early-time T V (C) trend is representative of a direct and unquenched look into the high-energy tail of the electron energy distribution function; thus, it tracks real-time changes in the mean electron energy via the N2(C) emission signatures. This is followed by the rapid onset of N + /O + ionic emission after a distinct time delay of ∼14.9 ns due to multistep chemical kinetics. The ionic emission enables determination of electron densities (n e ) >2 × 10 19 cm −3 and electron temperatures (T e ) >36 000 K, indicating the transition to a nearly fully ionized regime. The ps–ns temporal dynamics are also compared between air and N 2 plasmas to assess the influence of collisional partners, as well as across the anode, cathode, and central gap regions to identify spatial variations in plasma behavior. Finally, this work demonstrates versatile continuously probing approach capable of spectro-temporal and spatially resolved single-shot measurements of key state variables in the ps–ns evolution of atmospheric-pressure nanosecond pulsed plasmas.

Electric discharges↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change alters slug abundance but not herbivory in a temperate grassland

Climate change will significantly impact the world’s ecosystems, in part by altering species interactions and ecological processes, such as herbivory and plant community dynamics, which may impact forage quality and ecosystem production. Yet relatively few field experimental manipulations assessing all of these parameters have been performed to date. To help fill this knowledge gap, we evaluated the effects of increased temperature (+3°C day and night, year-round) and precipitation (+30% of mean annual rainfall) on slug herbivory and abundance and plant community dynamics biweekly in a pasture located in central Kentucky, U.S.A. Warming increased slug abundance once during the winter, likely due to improving conditions for foraging, whereas warming reduced slug abundance at times in late spring, mid-summer, and early fall (from 62–95% reduction depending on month). We found that warming and increased precipitation did not significantly modify slug herbivory at our site, despite altering slug abundance and affecting plant community composition and forage quality. Climate change will alter seasonal patterns of slug abundance through both direct effects on slug biology and indirect effects mediated by changes in the plant community, suggesting that pasture management practices may have to adapt.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Integration and Mapping of an Open-Source National Well Resource to Inform Geologic Carbon Storage Site Selection and Risk Prevention: The CO2-Locate Database

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) offers a way to capture and permanently store CO₂ from fossil fuel operations in underground geologic structures, aiding in the transition to a carbon-neutral energy economy. However, CO₂ injection sites can experience gas leakage through existing wells that penetrate storage reservoirs, making knowledge of well locations and characteristics crucial for permitting, infrastructure reusability, and risk assessment in GCS. Currently, public wellbore data from state, federal, and tribal entities are inconsistent and fragmented, with gaps and redundancies. To address this, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) developed CO2-Locate, an open-source, geospatial database and online application. CO2-Locate integrates over 50 data sources from federal, state, and tribal entities, creating a standardized national well database. Funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the database is publicly available through the Energy Data eXchange (EDX) and viewable via the CO2-Locate web mapping application. This tool allows users to query, filter, and visualize well data to support GCS planning, permitting, and risk assessments. This presentation covers the methods used to create CO2-Locate, including data acquisition, processing, attribute mapping, and integration, much of which is automated for future updates. The web mapping application and its role in GCS site selection will also be discussed.

Tetteh, Daniel A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coupling Remote Sensing and Sonar Measurements to Estimate Availability of Suitable Backwater Nursery Habitat for Colorado Pikeminnow

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sandbars and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. Recent knowledge about backwater characteristics and dynamics was summarized in a synthesis report (Grippo et al. 2015) that was based on detailed annual survey data collected from a relatively small sample of backwaters between 2003 to 2014 and reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area based on manual interpretation of aerial and satellite imagery. Methods that bridge the gap between the detailed surveys from a small number of backwaters and reach-wide assessments of their surface area would enable an improved assessment of the availability of backwater habitats that provide suitable depths for young-of-the-year (YOY) Colorado pikeminnow.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of the FaMUS Methodology to the NSUF Research Outputs Through End of 2019

The Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) is one of a diverse group of DOE user facilities. It is focused on advancing the understanding of radiation effects in nuclear fuels and materials in support of nuclear energy applications. The NSUF has been operating since 2007 and has developed a significant portfolio of supported research. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider its achievements and to determine its successes and shortfalls. As part of this analysis of the NSUF research program, the NSUF has developed a novel and elegant formalism for assessing the current level of understanding of nuclear fuels and materials for use in nuclear environments: the NSUF Fuels and Materials Understanding Scale (FaMUS). The FaMUS methodology is being applied to the NSUF portfolio on an ongoing basis to quantify the progress made. This report summarizes the status of the assessment exercise and highlights general lessons learned. This examination will facilitate capability balancing of future research by identifying gaps in knowledge, understanding, testing, and demonstration allowing the NSUF program office in conjunction with DOE-NE to direct resources to important aspects of the DOE-NE mission using “emphasize & enhance”, “maintain”, and “encourage excellence” classifications as well as providing increased transparency to researchers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Invertible Temper Modeling using Normalizing Flows and the Effects of Structure Preserving Loss

Advanced manufacturing research and development is typically small-scale, owing to costly experiments associated with these novel processes. Deep learning techniques could help accelerate this development cycle but frequently struggle in small-data regimes like the advanced manufacturing space. While prior work has applied deep learning to modeling visually plausible advanced manufacturing microstructures, little work has been done on data-driven modeling of how microstructures are affected by heat treatment, or assessing the degree to which synthetic microstructures are able to support existing workflows. We propose to address this gap by using invertible neural networks (normalizing flows) to model the effects of heat treatment, e.g., tempering. The model is developed using scanning electron microscope imagery from samples produced using shear-assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPE) manufacturing. This approach not only produces visually and topologically plausible samples, but also captures information related to a sample’s material properties or experimental process parameters. We also demonstrate that topological data analysis, used in prior work to characterize microstructures, can also be used to stabilize model training, preserve structure, and improve downstream results. We assess directions for future work and identify our approach as an important step towards end-to-end deep learning system for accelerating advanced manufacturing research and development.

Howland, Sylvia↗
DOE OSTI2024

The power reliability event simulator tool (PRESTO): A novel approach to distribution system reliability analysis and applications

The growing interest in onsite solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems is partially motivated by customer concerns regarding grid reliability. However, accurately assessing the effectiveness of PVESS in mitigating these interruptions requires a comprehensive understanding of location-specific outage patterns and the ability to simulate realistic scenarios. To address the gap, we introduce the Power Reliability Event Simulation TOol (PRESTO), the first publicly available tool that simulates location-specific power interruptions at the county level. PRESTO allows for a more realistic assessment of system reliability by considering the unpredictability and location-specific patterns of power interruptions. We applied PRESTO in a case study of a single-family home across three U.S. counties, examining the performance of a solar photovoltaic system with 10kWh of battery storage during short-duration power interruptions. Our findings show that this system reliably met 93% of energy demand for essential non-heating and cooling loads, fully serving these loads in 84% of events, despite the constraints of daily time-of-use bill management which limits the battery's state-of-charge reserve. However, when heating and cooling loads were included, system performance decreased significantly, with only 70% of demand met and full service in 43% of events. These results highlight the challenges of using solar photovoltaic and energy storage systems for short-duration outages, emphasizing the need to consider factors like battery size and grid charging strategies to improve reliability. Our study demonstrates the practical applications of PRESTO, providing valuable insights into potential mitigation strategies including grid charging and optimizing battery size.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗