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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

We Can't Count on Repairing All Failures Going to Mars

Reliability analysis often assumes that a complex system can be kept operating indefinitely with scheduled maintenance and emergency repair using a stock of spare parts, as long as the spare parts are not depleted. This assumption seems justified for well-tested, widely used, long operational systems with a multigenerational history of failure, redesign, and reliability growth. It seems doubtful that newer, relatively untried, high technology space systems can always be repaired. We cannot assume space systems will have a low rate of random failures that can all be repaired with a few identical spares. New untried systems usually have a high initial failure rate, called infant mortality, due to errors in requirements, design, parts, materials, and operations planning. These problems can cause groups of related failures called Common Cause Failures (CCFs). The practical definition of a CCF is any failure mode that cannot be cured using identical redundant systems or spare parts. Systems with CCFs may fail repeatedly for the same reason. Can a life support system be kept operating on the way to Mars using only redundant systems and spare parts? The failure history of International Space Station (ISS) life support systems suggests that CCFs are likely to occur and will probably require design changes rather than being reparable with spare parts.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems: Gas Turbine Control Considerations for the Mitigation of Potential Failure Modes and Hazards

This paper provides a high-level review of the potential failure modes and hazards to which electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems are susceptible, along with potential gas turbine control-based strategies to assist in the mitigation of those failures. To introduce the types of failures that an EAP system may experience, a generic EAP system is considered, consisting of gas turbine engines, mechanical drives, electric machines, power electronics and distribution systems, energy storage devices, and motor driven propulsors. The functionality provided by each of these EAP subsystems is discussed, along with their potential failure modes, and possible strategies for mitigating those failures. To further illustrate the role of gas turbine controls in mitigating EAP failure modes, an example based on a simulated EAP concept aircraft proposed by NASA is given. The effects of failures are discussed, along with turbomachinery control strategies, including reversionary control modes, and control limit logic.

Donald L Simon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Stress Testing: Using Reinforcement Learning to Find Failures in Safety-Critical Systems

Emerging applications in artificial intelligence, such as driverless cars and autonomous aircraft promise to be more efficient, cheaper to operate, and always available. However, ensuring the safety of these systems remains a major challenge to their certification and adoption. These autonomous systems are expected to routinely make safety-critical decisions where failures can have serious consequences including loss of life and property. Testing and validation techniques aim to identify and diagnose potential failures before the system is deployed. However, finding failure scenarios in autonomous systems can be very challenging due to high-dimensional and continuous state spaces, interaction with large environments over many time steps, and the rarity of failures. This talk presents Adaptive Stress Testing (AST), a simulation-based testing framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event of a safety-critical system. The key idea of AST is that stress testing can be formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which enables reinforcement learning techniques to be used for finding failure events. Reinforcement learning algorithms can efficiently explore the search space and have been shown to scale to very large systems. We present applications of AST to find failures in various safety-critical systems including the aircraft collision avoidance systems, autonomous cars, and small unmanned aerial vehicles.

autonomous vehicles↗
NASA NTRS2021

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Systems: Gas Turbine Control Considerations for the Mitigation of Potential Failure Modes and Hazards

This paper provides a high-level review of the potential failure modes and hazards to which electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) systems are susceptible along with potential gas turbine control-based strategies to assist in the mitigation of those failures. To introduce the types of failures that an EAP system may experience, a generic EAP system is considered consisting of gas turbine engines, mechanical drives, electric machines, power electronics and distribution systems, energy storage devices, and motor driven propulsors. The functionality provided by each of these EAP subsystems is discussed along with their potential failure modes and possible strategies for mitigating those failures. To further illustrate the role of gas turbine controls in mitigating EAP failure modes, an example based on a simulated EAP concept aircraft proposed by NASA is given. The effects of failures are discussed, along with turbomachinery control strategies, including reversionary control modes, and control limit logic

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2018

High Resolution Computed Tomography Inspection of Components Uncovers Root Causes of Vexing Failure Mysteries

During testing of actuators for fight programs, failures have occurred that required closure with an understanding of the root cause of the failure. For some InSight project actuators, intermittent changes of the winding resistance of the motors during temperature changes was extremely baffling. It was critical to determine the cause of the intermittent characteristic because the actuators were stock from a previous program and the company that provided the motors was no longer in business. Using an X-Ray Computed-Tomography (CT) method, the exact source of the intermittent failure was determined and completely understood – at dimensions of less than 20 microns. In another case, after the completion of an actuator’s life-test-to-failure, inspection was required to determine the source of the failure. The size of the actuator (10 mm diameter) required destructive means to get to the interior of the actuator for inspection, risking the loss of the source of the failure. Using CT imaging, the exact source of the failure was determined.

Johnson, Michael R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Is the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is a continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a discussion of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). The paper demonstrated how the typical method of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the real world. Instead of relying on textbook methods, it is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This work uses a simulation to solve for the model of the world, and is compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes were removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing, and comparisons will be shown showing which method is more accurate and under what conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Integral Effect Test of ATLAS Facility on Multiple Failure in a Prolonged Station Blackout

Since the Fukushima accident, the design extension conditions (DECs) in a nuclear power plant (NPP) have attracted more importance with respect to nuclear reactor safety, and a consensus has been developed such that these high-risk multiple failure accidents should be revisited from the viewpoint of a reinforcement of the 'defense in depth' concept. In particular, a station blackout (SBO) is one of the most important DECs because a loss of the heat sink without an appropriate accident measure might lead to a core uncovery, core damage, and ultimately, a core meltdown under high pressure. SBO has been recognized to be one of the risk-contributing sequences when combined with additional failure of components such as a reactor coolant pump (RCP) seal leakage or a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). The RCP seal failure could occur due to a loss of continuous cooling through the seal during SBO. The SGTR during SBO can be a potentially important risk due to the release of the fission product with bypassing the containment boundary. The objective of this study is to experimentally simulate and analyze a prolonged SBO scenario in a thermal hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS. As test items in OECD-ATLAS project, two tests for the SBO condition were conducted with additional failures, that is, a RCP seal failure (A2.1 test) and a SGTR (A2.2 test). In those tests, both the effect of the additional failure on reactor safety and the natural circulation characteristics during prolonged SBO conditions could be investigated. The present test can provide physical insight into the system response during the prolonged SBO scenario combined with the multiple failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Best effort broadcast under cascading failures in interdependent critical infrastructure networks

Here, we present a novel study of reliable broadcast in interdependent networks, in which the failures in one network may cascade to another network. In particular, we focus on the interdependency between a communication network and a power grid network, where the power grid depends on the communication network for control and the communication network depends on the grid for power. In this paper, we propose a best effort broadcast algorithm to handle crash failures in the communication network that may cause cascading failures. We guarantee that all the correct nodes, which operate correctly according to the protocol and do not experience any software or hardware or network failures, eventually deliver the message if the sender is correct. We provide a centralized algorithm and a fully distributed algorithm for nodes to analyze and handle cascading failures. At the core of our work is the fully distributed algorithm which enjoys great performance and scalability. Our evaluation results show that the algorithm handles cascading failures with low overhead.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Failure Criterion of SiC/SiC Composites Under Multiaxial Loading

Owing to its excellent mechanical properties and stability under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions, SiC/SiC composites have emerged as a promising material for light water reactors (LWRs) in the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) systems. Structural integrity and retention of hermeticity are two crucial requirements for SiC/SiC claddings during normal operations, and both of them are closely related to the proportional limit stress (PLS) of the material. Understanding the behavior of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial stress states and developing a probabilistic approach for evaluating the structural vulnerability are of paramount importance for reliability-based analysis and design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. So far, there has been very limited effort towards experimental and analytical investigations of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC claddings. This critical knowledge gap motivates this research. A probabilistic failure criterion for SiC/SiC composites under multi-axial loading is developed, and this criterion is incorporated into reliability analysis of the structural integrity of SiC/SiC fuel cladding. The research consists of two parts: 1) experimental investigation of multiaxial failure behavior of SiC/SiC composites, and 2) theoretical modeling of time-dependent probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC cladding. In the experimental investigation, the PLS is determined through the examination of stress-strain response, the acoustic emission measurement, as well as the X-ray computed tomography. The theoretical framework is derived by combin- ing the finite weakest-link statistical model and the subcritical damage growth model. This theoretical model captures the time-dependent failure mechanism of the material, which has a major consequence for predicting the lifetime distribution of the cladding. Meanwhile, the model also predicts that the failure statistics of the cladding depends strongly on the cladding length. The results of the multiaxial experiments reveal the level of statistical variation of the PLS of SiC/SiC materials under different stress states. The theoretical model provides a robust analytical tool for extrapolation of small-scale laboratory test results to the behavior of full-scale claddings. These findings establish a scientific foundation for the development of reliability-based design of SiC/SiC fuel claddings, which will play an essential role in improving the structural safety and integrity of LWRs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Hardware and Software Common Cause Failures in Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems using Dual Error Propagation Method

This paper develops a methodology for quantifying software common cause failures (CCFs) in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems of nuclear power plants. To support the transition of analog I&C systems to digital in nuclear power plants, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are used. The hardware components of the I&C systems have reliability databases that can be used in the PRA studies. However, the failure data for redundant software components of the systems is sparse. Failure of components constitutes a CCF, wherein two or more components or systems fail due to a single shared cause and coupling mechanism. This paper proposes a quantification approach that can simultaneously model hardware and software components, incorporate the CCFs of software systems in the models, and bridge the gap between the failure quantification of models and the development of CCF parametric databases. We demonstrate the dual error propagation method (DEPM) by developing I&C systems failure models for a representative digital reactor trip system. The DEPM models are built to simulate the control and data flows within the systems and can accommodate failure states. By expanding DEPM to software CCFs, we generated alpha factor parameter estimates for each of the modeled error propagation mechanisms.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Failure analysis of field-failed bypass diodes

Defective bypass diodes are often found as the largest factor leading to power loss in solar modules. Here, we report on failure mechanisms by investigating shunted bypass diodes from a rooftop installation, using a combination of multiple characterizations including current–voltage analysis, thermal-runaway testing, X-ray computed tomography, lock-in thermography, focused ion-beam cross-section imaging, chemical decapsulation, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Differing from static discharge typically associated with lightning strikes on modules, we found diode failure by the mechanism of thermal damage under continuous, long-term overstress in forward bias. Our conclusion is based on evidence of energy dissipated—the small to medium extent of melt-through on the Schottky diode face. The diode failure shows distortions or roughening of the Schottky diode metal-semiconductor interface with the die attach, and some failures are accompanied by die-attach solder melting. We propose that nonuniform irradiance on the modules caused diode shunting due to extended periods of heat dissipation in the modules, because modules in this string were placed in two different orientations. In contrast, a second parallel module string of the same module type on the same rooftop with a unique plane of array did not show any diode failures. The thermal damage failure of melt-through was caused by the long-term current generated by overstressing of diodes that may have had crystalline and impurity defects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Current Role of the Total Artificial Heart in the Management of Advanced Heart Failure

The total artificial heart (TAH) is a form of mechanical circulatory support that involves resection of the native ventricles followed by placement of a device that can restore total pulmonary and systemic flow. Given the increasing burden of congestive heart failure and cardiovascular disease, the number of people in need of cardiac replacement therapy will continue to grow. Despite aggressive efforts to expand the donor pool, the number of heart transplants in the United States (US) has plateaued at less than 3000 per year. In addition, there is increasing recognition of the long-term complications of current generation left ventricular assist devices such as progressive aortic insufficiency, complications related to blood trauma, and both early and delayed right ventricular failure. These factors may serve to expand the role of the TAH in the treatment of patients with end-stage heart failure particularly if new generation devices are developed that are durable, have an improved safety profile, and are totally implantable. Purpose of Review: To review the role and current evidence of the use of the TAH in the management of advanced heart failure and discuss development of recent TAHs that may have an impact on the field in the near future. Recent Findings: Many patients that receive a heart transplant are bridged with a mechanical support device, most commonly a left ventricular assist device (LVAD). However, there is a small subset of patients with profound biventricular (BV) failure or structural abnormalities that preclude LVAD placement, who will require support with a biventricular assist device (BiVAD) or TAH. There are numerous studies showing the efficacy of the TAH in bridging to transplantation. Also, recent studies have shown equal rates of bridging to transplantation between patients receiving a TAH compared to a BiVAD. However, BiVAD support has a higher incidence of stroke in addition to complications related to the native heart such as arrhythmias and valve dysfunction. Currently, there are multiple new generation artificial hearts in both preclinical development and in clinical trials for both bridge to transplant and destination therapy. Summary: TAH have been shown to be effective for circulatory support in select patients with end-stage heart failure. Current LVADs are associated with significant long-term complications related to retention of the native heart and pump design. Many of these complications may be addressed by the increased use of cardiac replacement therapy, i.e., total artificial hearts. Multiple generations of both pulsatile and advanced design continuous flow TAH are under development which have the potential to expand the role of TAHs.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational micromechanics model based failure criteria for chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound composites

Chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound has a great potential in lightweight automotive, marine, and aerospace applications. One of the most challenging tasks is to predict the failure strength of the material due to its anisotropy and heterogeneity, as well as complex stress states in real-world working conditions. In this work, a novel constitutive model of carbon fiber chip is proposed to capture the pre- and post-failure behaviors under different loading modes. On this basis, we propose a new computational micromechanics model, which is calibrated and validated by uniaxial tensile, compressive, and in-plane shear experiments. Furthermore, a set of microstructures representative volume element (RVE) models under complex loading conditions are reconstructed to understand the relationship between the microstructure characteristics and the failure envelopes. Finally, several modified versions of classical failure criteria are proposed for anisotropic materials with consideration of the fiber orientation tensor. The modified Tsai-Wu failure criterion, which shows the best accuracy among all failure criteria, is highlighted in the comparative study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating commutation failures in HVDC systems with SFCL deployment

Commutation failures represent a prevalent issue encountered in line-commutated-converter high voltage direct current (LCC-HVDC) systems. As the widespread deployment of HVDC systems continues, the risk associated with commutation failures increases, posing a growing threat to power grids due to their potential to trigger severe consequences, including cascading failures and widespread blackouts. This research paper aims to address the significant issue of commutation failure within direct current (DC) systems through advocating for the use of resistive-type Superconducting Fault Current Limiters (R-SFCLs). To substantiate the efficacy of this proposed strategy, an array of simulations are executed using the PSCAD/EMTDC software. This comprehensive study investigates the performance characteristics of R-SFCLs configured with varying resistance values, scrutinizing their response under diverse fault resistance scenarios and distinct fault initiation times within the LCC-HVDC system. The outcomes of these simulations are that SFCLs confer significant advantages for mitigating commutation failures, surpassing traditional mitigation methods in terms of effectiveness. Consequently, SFCLs emerge as an optimal solution to prevent commutation failures in the HVDC systems.

Commutation failure↗
DOE OSTI2019

Type IV failure in weldment of creep resistant ferritic alloys: II. Creep fracture and lifetime prediction

The creep rupture behavior (Type IV failure) for weldments of creep strength enhanced ferritic steel is numerically analyzed, using an integrated microstructure- and micromechanics-based finite element model. To account for the large microstructure gradients across weldments, a two-dimensional digital microstructure is constructed based on the actual observed microstructure of ferritic steel weldment by using the Voronoi-tessellation method. According to the fracture mechanism studies and literature experimental observations, the Type IV failure is identified as an intergranular creep fracture in the fine-grained or intercritical heated affected zone (FGHAZ or ICHAZ). In the present study, the following micromechanics model is employed to determine the micromechanical and microstructural origins for the failure process above, accounting for the underlying physical fracture mechanisms at different length scales, including nucleation of grain boundary cavities, their growth by competition of grain boundary diffusion and grain interior creep, viscous grain boundary sliding, and the emergence of microcracks by coalescence and their evolution to the ultimate failure. The methodology demonstrates the capabilities in modeling the Type IV failure and providing quantitative creep rupture lifetime prediction which shows an excellent agreement with long-term creep experimental data for creep strength enhanced ferritic steels and their weldments. In particular, the drop-off in time to rupture at high temperatures and low stress levels in the creep rupture curves is quantitatively predicted, and the transition of failure mechanisms from creep-controlled to diffusion-controlled creep fracture mechanism is illustrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗