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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Top Loading Helium Cryostat Integrated with High-Pressure Cell with Fast Remote Pressure Control (Final Report for SBIR Phase 1)

A large number of physical phenomena, such as superconductivity and quantum critical phenomena, often appear only at very low temperatures below 5 K. There is an immense interest to investigate these phenomena at high pressure as a means of tuning interatomic distances, and thus the interaction parameters controlling these phenomena, in a continuous and controlled fashion. The current P-T condition for neutron scattering experiments are limited to either relatively low pressures of about 2 GPa at temperatures below 5 K, or to relatively high temperatures at pressures or tens of GPa. The purpose of this research is to develop neutron sample environment instrumentation for reaching 10-20 GPa at 1-2K with rapid and reliable online pressure and temperature control (i.e. without having to interrupt the experiment). The ultimate goal of the project is to design an integrated fast-cooling low-temperature sample environment cryogenic system compatible with state of the art neutron diamond anvil cells suitable for single-crystal neutron scattering experiments for temperatures down to 2K and pressures of several tens of GPa. The integrated system will consist of top-loading Helium flow cryostat with in-situ sample alignment mechanisms, large-volume diamond anvil cells (DAC) made from novel superalloy Pascalloy and optimized for fast cooling and heating, and a compact remote pressure control mechanism for the DAC based on a novel concept of inflatable bellows integrated with a lever-arm based force amplifier. In Phase I, we have designed, manufactured, and tested prototypes of the novel compact force-amplified pneumatic pressure control mechanism for Neutron Diamond Anvil Cell (nDAC), which allows to use pneumatic bellows system for smooth remote pressure control in the nDAC inside a top-loading cryostat with bore size of 70 mm or larger. This allows significant minimum temperature decrease in remotely controlled nDAC from 5-10 K down to 2 K. We also studied mechanical properties of a novel non-magnetic superalloy Pascalloy with different heat-treatment conditions and preliminary results indicate that up to date this is probably the strongest and most suitable material for making more compact and lightweight cryogenic nDACs for neuron scattering experiments at extreme conditions, allowing much faster cooling and heating. Potential applications: The new developments will allow to create a wide range of compact Diamond Anvil Cells for neutron diffraction which can reach several tens of GPA pressure at 2-4 K while preserving accurate remote pressure control capabilities. The new concepts can be used for developing sample environment instrumentation outside the neutron scattering field. The new development have very strong potential for expanding experimental capabilities in materials sciences and have high commercialization potential. The proposed new cryogenic high-pressure system or any of its individual components will be in high demand not only in neutron scattering facilities, but also at synchrotron beamlines and other high-pressure research facilities around the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Domain Extreme-Ultraviolet Diffuse Scattering Spectroscopy of Nanoscale Surface Phonons

Here, we report the observation of dynamic fringe patterns in the diffuse scattering of extreme ultraviolet light from surfaces, following femtosecond optical excitation. At each point on the detector, the diffuse scattering intensity exhibits oscillations at well-defined frequencies that correspond to surface phonons with wave vectors determined by the scattering geometry, indicating that the optical excitation generates coherent surface phonons propagating in all directions and spanning a wavelength range from 60 to 300 nm. This phenomenon is observed on a variety of samples, including single-layer and multilayer metal films, as well as bulk semiconductors. The measured surface phonon dispersions show good agreement with theoretical calculations. By comparing signal amplitudes from samples with different surface morphologies, we find that the excitation mechanism is linked to the natural surface roughness of the samples. However, the signal is still detectable on extremely smooth surfaces with subnanometer roughness. Our findings demonstrate a simple and effective method for optically exciting coherent surface phonons with nanoscale wavelengths on a wide range of solid samples and establish a foundation for surface phonon spectroscopy in a wave vector range well beyond the limit of conventional surface Brillouin scattering.

Capotondi, F. [Elettra-Sincrotrone Trieste (Italy)↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-faint Milky Way Satellites Discovered in Carina, Phoenix, and Telescopium with DELVE Data Release 3

We report the discovery of three Milky Way satellite candidates: Carina IV, Phoenix III, and DELVE 7, in the third data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE). The candidate systems were identified by cross-matching results from two independent search algorithms. All three are extremely faint systems composed of old, metal-poor stellar populations (τ ≳ 10 Gyr, [Fe/H] ≲−1.4). Carina IV (M V = −2.8; r 1/2 = 40 pc) and Phoenix III (M V = −1.2; r 1/2 = 19 pc) have half-light radii that are consistent with the known population of dwarf galaxies, while DELVE 7 (M V = 1.2; r 1/2 = 2 pc) is very compact and seems more likely to be a star cluster, though its nature remains ambiguous without spectroscopic follow-up. The Gaia proper motions of stars in Carina IV ($M_{\star} = 2250^{+1180}_{-830} M_⊙$) indicate that it is unlikely to be associated with the LMC, while DECam CaHK photometry confirms that its member stars are metal poor. Phoenix III ($M_{\star} = 520^{+660}_{-290} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite in the extreme outer stellar halo (D GC > 100 kpc), while DELVE 7 ($M_{\star} = 60^{+120}_{-40} M_⊙$) is the faintest known satellite with D GC > 20 kpc.

Tan, Chin Yi [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical lacustrine sediment microbial community response to an extreme El Niño event

Salinity can influence microbial communities and related functional groups in lacustrine sediments, but few studies have examined temporal variability in salinity and associated changes in lacustrine microbial communities and functional groups. To better understand how microbial communities and functional groups respond to salinity, we examined geochemistry and functional gene amplicon sequence data collected from 13 lakes located in Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2° N, 157° W) in July 2014 and June 2019, dates which bracket the very large El Niño event of 2015–2016 and a period of extremely high precipitation rates. Lake water salinity values in 2019 were significantly reduced and covaried with ecological distances between microbial samples. Specifically, phylum- and family-level results indicate that more halophilic microorganisms occurred in 2014 samples, whereas more mesohaline, marine, or halotolerant microorganisms were detected in 2019 samples. Functional Annotation of Prokaryotic Taxa (FAPROTAX) and functional gene results (nifH, nrfA, aprA) suggest that salinity influences the relative abundance of key functional groups (chemoheterotrophs, phototrophs, nitrogen fixers, denitrifiers, sulfate reducers), as well as the microbial diversity within functional groups. Accordingly, we conclude that microbial community and functional gene groups in the lacustrine sediments of Kiritimati show dynamic changes and adaptations to the fluctuations in salinity driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Potential Atmospheric Leakage Risks Associated With the Geologic Storage of CO 2 in Saline Aquifers for Use in Voluntary Carbon Market Buffer Account Determination

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. This paper presents the results of a detailed study into the potential atmospheric leakage risks associated with the geologic storage of CO 2 in saline aquifers. This study included a detailed literature review, a re-creation of existing CO 2 leakage models put forth by other authors and, lastly, the development of an enhanced model that can be utilized for assessing the potential losses to the atmosphere of stored CO 2 across a variety of potential project parameters. The results of this study indicate that, across broad ranges of input parameters for mechanisms that have the potential for CO 2 loss from the storage complex to the atmosphere, there is an extremely low risk of CO 2 leakage to the atmosphere, with the median leakage risk estimated to be 0.1% of total injected CO 2 . The risk of leakage from real-world storage projects is likely to be even lower than those estimated through this study.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

R -mode Stability of GW190814's Secondary Component as a Supermassive and Superfast Pulsar

The nature of GW190814's secondary component m 2 of mass (2.50–2.67)M ⊙ in the mass gap between the currently known maximum mass of neutron stars and the minimum mass of black holes is currently under hot debate. Among the many possibilities proposed in the literature, the m 2 was suggested as a superfast pulsar while its r-mode stability against the run-away gravitational radiation through the Chandrasekhar-Friedman-Schutz mechanism is still unknown. Previously, Fortin et al. constructed a sample of 33 unified equations of state using the same nuclear interactions from the crust to the core consistently; from that sample we use those equations that fulfill all currently known astrophysical and nuclear physics constraints to compare the minimum frequency required for m 2 to rotationally sustain a mass greater than 2.50 M ⊙ with the critical frequency above which the r-mode instability occurs. Here, we use two extreme damping models assuming that the crust is either perfectly rigid or elastic. Using the stability of 19 observed low-mass X-ray binaries as an indication that the rigid crust damping of the r-mode dominates within the models studied, we find that m 2 is r-mode-stable while rotating with a frequency higher than 870.2 Hz (0.744 times its Kepler frequency of 1169.6 Hz) as long as its temperature is lower than about 3.9 × 10 7 K, further supporting the proposal that GW190814's secondary component is a supermassive and superfast pulsar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geology and elevation shape bacterial assembly in Antarctic endolithic communities

Ice free areas of continental Antarctica are among the coldest and driest environments on Earth, and yet, they support surprisingly diverse and highly adapted microbial communities. Endolithic growth is one of the key adaptations to such extreme environments and often represents the dominant life-form. Despite growing scientific interest, little is known of the mechanisms that influence the assembly of endolithic microbiomes across these harsh environments. Here, we used metagenomics to examine the diversity and assembly of endolithic bacterial communities across Antarctica within different rock types and over a large elevation range. While granite supported richer and more heterogeneous communities than sandstone, elevation had no apparent effect on taxonomic richness, regardless of rock type. Conversely, elevation was clearly associated with turnover in community composition, with the deterministic process of variable selection driving microbial assembly along the elevation gradient. The turnover associated with elevation was modulated by geology, whereby for a given elevation difference, turnover was consistently larger between communities inhabiting different rock types. Overall, selection imposed by elevation and geology appeared stronger than turnover related to other spatially-structured environmental drivers. Our findings indicate that at the cold-arid limit of life on Earth, geology and elevation are key determinants of endolithic bacterial heterogeneity. This also suggests that warming temperatures may threaten the persistence of such extreme-adapted organisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly diverse and unknown viruses may enhance Antarctic endoliths’ adaptability

Abstract Background Rock-dwelling microorganisms are key players in ecosystem functioning of Antarctic ice free-areas. Yet, little is known about their diversity and ecology, and further still, viruses in these communities have been largely unexplored despite important roles related to host metabolism and nutrient cycling. To begin to address this, we present a large-scale viral catalog from Antarctic rock microbial communities. Results We performed metagenomic analyses on rocks from across Antarctica representing a broad range of environmental and spatial conditions, and which resulted in a predicted viral catalog comprising > 75,000 viral operational taxonomic units (vOTUS). We found largely undescribed, highly diverse and spatially structured virus communities which had predicted auxiliary metabolic genes (AMGs) with functions indicating that they may be potentially influencing bacterial adaptation and biogeochemistry. Conclusion This catalog lays the foundation for expanding knowledge of virosphere diversity, function, spatial ecology, and dynamics in extreme environments. This work serves as a step towards exploring adaptability of microbial communities in the face of a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Subgrouping of Multiple Stellar Populations in NGC 2808 Based on Low-resolution Spectroscopy

We performed low-resolution spectroscopy for the red giant branch stars in an intriguing globular cluster (GC) NGC 2808, which hosts subpopulations with extreme helium and light-element abundances. In order to trace N, C, and Ca abundance differences among subpopulations, we measured CN, CH, and Ca ii H&K spectral indices, respectively. We identified four subpopulations (G1, G2, G3, and G4) from CN and CH strength, with CN-weak/CH-strong G1, CN-intermediate/CH-strong G2, CN-strong/CH-intermediate G3, and CN-strong/CH-weak G4. Compared to [Na/O] from high-resolution spectroscopy, we show that CN index can more clearly separate G1 and G2. Since CN traces N abundance in a GC, it implies that G1 and G2 would show a larger difference in [N/Fe] compared to [Na/Fe], as predicted by chemical evolution models. Later generation stars G3 and G4, however, are better separated with high-resolution spectroscopy. We also found that G4 shows a stronger Ca ii H&K line strength compared to that of G1, but we suspect this to be a result of unusually strong He enhancement and/or Mg depletion in G4 of this GC. This work illustrates that combining low- and high-resolution spectroscopic studies can improve the separation of subpopulations in GCs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity in CMIP6 Models

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker-than-normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. Further, they are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north-shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗