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At least 271 records · Page 15

Accuracy and performance of LACIE yield estimates in major wheat producing regions of the world

The LACIE yield models developed, implemented, and tested during the three phases of the experiment represent the first generation of models designed for the large-scale prediction of wheat production. The models are capable of supporting the stated project goal of being within 10 percent of the actual wheat production 90 percent of the time. The limitations of the models are inherent in their nature. The temporal resolution limits their ability to handle the erratic weather occurring in critical situations. The relatively large spatial resolution of the individual models limits the capture of localized but important episodic events.

Phinney, D. E.↗

A new class of gradient estimators for queueing systems with real-time constraints

Queuing systems are considered where the waiting or sojourn times of customers are constrained by specified deadlines. A performance measure of interest in these systems is the probability that a customer exceeds its assigned deadline. A new class of gradient estimators is presented for such performance measures with respect to various system parameters. The approach is applicable to a general class of problems and is based on efficiently capturing sensitivity information for probabilities of event occurrences from observed sample paths.

Gong, Wei-Bo↗

Variability of Upper-Tropospheric Precipitable from Satellite and Model Reanalysis Datasets

Numerous datasets have been used to quantify water vapor and its variability in the upper-troposphere from satellite and model reanalysis data. These investigations have shown some usefulness in monitoring seasonal and inter-annual variations in moisture either globally, with polar orbiting satellite data or global model output analysis, or regionally, with the higher spatial and temporal resolution geostationary measurements. The datasets are not without limitations, however, due to coverage or limited temporal sampling, and may also contain bias in their representation of moisture processes. The research presented in this conference paper inter-compares the NVAP, NCEP/NCAR and DAO reanalysis models, and GOES satellite measurements of upper-tropospheric,precipitable water for the period from 1988-1994. This period captures several dramatic swings in climate events associated with ENSO events. The data are evaluated for temporal and spatial continuity, inter-compared to assess reliability and potential bias, and analyzed in light of expected trends due to changes in precipitation and synoptic-scale weather features. This work is the follow-on to previous research which evaluated total precipitable water over the same period. The relationship between total and upper-level precipitable water in the datasets will be discussed as well.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Archetypes for Organisational Safety

We propose a framework using system dynamics to model the dynamic behavior of organizations in accident analysis. Most current accident analysis techniques are event-based and do not adequately capture the dynamic complexity and non-linear interactions that characterize accidents in complex systems. In this paper we propose a set of system safety archetypes that model common safety culture flaws in organizations, i.e., the dynamic behaviour of organizations that often leads to accidents. As accident analysis and investigation tools, the archetypes can be used to develop dynamic models that describe the systemic and organizational factors contributing to the accident. The archetypes help clarify why safety-related decisions do not always result in the desired behavior, and how independent decisions in different parts of the organization can combine to impact safety.

Marais, Karen↗

Solving the Mystery of Short Gamma Ray Bursts

Gamma-ray bursts are among the most fascinating occurrences in the cosmos. Until this year, the origin of short gamma-ray bursts was a complete mystery. A new NASA satellite named Swift has now captured the first images of these events and found that they are caused by tremendous explosions in the distant universe.

Gehrels, Neil↗

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Nigro, Joseph↗

Dose-Response Data Collection Preparation for the NASA Quesst Mission With the X-59

Supersonic flight has the potential to cut travel times in half; however, community annoyance to sonic booms led to the ban on overland commercial supersonic flight by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1973. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is developing the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate quiet supersonic flight and collect dose-response data to inform regulators in their efforts to establish noise standards to replace the current supersonic speed limit. This talk presents an overview of the NASA Quesst mission and poses some challenges in collecting and analyzing X-59 dose-response data. For the upcoming community flight campaign, the noise dose is the loudness of a supersonic overflight of the X-59 and the perceptual response from participants is captured via surveys after the flyover events. Establishing a relationship between noise dose and perceptual response will be a key product of these efforts.

X-59↗

High Pressure Vent Line Mishap: Investigation Summary

During testing on the E-1 Test Stand, the High Pressure (HP) Liquid Hydrogen (LH) vent line was displaced off its supports, damaging the expansion joints (EJ), piping, and pipe supports of the line. The damage to the vent line is believed to have occurred during Cell 3 testing on Thursday, September 21, during the first test of the day. The fuel systems being used for Cell 3 testing are connected to the LP and HP LH Vent systems and are being used in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) service. The Cell 3 interface bleed valve that discharges to the HP LH Vent system was inadvertently left at 100% open during the chill-in process for longer than the typical amount of time. Since this valve is usually at a lower set point or intermittently closed during the chill-in process, more than the typical amount of LNG flowed into the vent line as pre-test procedures continued as normal. The open bleed valve was noticed before test preparations were completed and prior to refilling of the HP LH Tank before test. The test sequence was started, run, and shutdown normally. Video of the flare stack showed an atypical discharge of liquid at the flare stack exit. Pressure downstream of the Cell 3 interface bleed valve (a valve connected to the southernmost part of the vent system) spiked to a higher-than-normal level. No evidence of damage was captured at the time of the event. The system was used in a typical fashion after the event and for 4 subsequent tests on Thursday and Friday, before the damage was observed. A drive-by inspection of the flare stack was performed on Friday (September 22nd) morning before sunrise and before test activities began, but no damage of the vent line was observed at that time. No abnormal system behavior was observed during testing on Friday. The damage was discovered and reported to NASA Test Operations on Monday, initiating the Incident Response Team. The Mishap appointment letter was issued September 27th to formally initiate the Mishap Investigation.

LNG↗

Neutron tagging following atmospheric neutrino events in a water Cherenkov detector

We present the development of neutron-tagging techniques in Super-Kamiokande IV using a neural network analysis. The detection efficiency of neutron capture on hydrogen is estimated to be 26%, with a mis-tag rate of 0.016 per neutrino event. The uncertainty of the tagging efficiency is estimated to be 9.0%. Measurement of the tagging efficiency with data from an Americium-Beryllium calibration agrees with this value within 10%. The tagging procedure was performed on 3,244.4 days of SK-IV atmospheric neutrino data, identifying 18,091 neutrons in 26,473 neutrino events. The fitted neutron capture lifetime was measured as 218±9 μs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extrasolar Oort Clouds

With the strong Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory/Burst and Transient Source Experiment (CGRO/BATSE) evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approx. equals 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NSs penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequence stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on time scales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating, events. Comparing these estimates to the 3-4 soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NSs are inefficient at producing gamma rays; or (2) the gamma rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Clouds like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extra-solar Oort clouds

With the strong CGRO/BATSE evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approximately equals to 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NS's penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequences stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on timescales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating events. Comparing these estimates to the three to four soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NS's are inefficient at producing gamma-rays; or (2) the gamma-rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Cloud like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗

Event Cause Analysis in Distribution Networks using Synchro Waveform Measurements

This paper presents a machine learning method for event cause analysis to enhance situational awareness in distribution networks. The data streams are captured using time-synchronized high sampling rates synchro waveform measurement units (SWMU). The proposed method is formulated based on a machine learning method, the convolutional neural network (CNN). This method is capable of capturing the spatiotemporal feature of the measurements effectively and perform the event cause analysis. Several events are considered in this paper to encompass a range of possible events in real distribution networks, including capacitor bank switching, transformer energization, fault, and high impedance fault (HIF). The dataset for our study is generated using the real time digital simulator (RTDS) to simulate real-world events. The event cause analysis is performed using only one cycle of the voltage waveforms after the event is detected. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed machine learning-based method compared to the state-of-the-art classifiers.

Niazazari, Iman↗

High-Rate Data-Capture for an Airborne Lidar System

A high-rate data system was required to capture the data for an airborne lidar system. A data system was developed that achieved up to 22 million (64-bit) events per second sustained data rate (1408 million bits per second), as well as short bursts (less than 4 s) at higher rates. All hardware used for the system was off the shelf, but carefully selected to achieve these rates. The system was used to capture laser fire, single-photon detection, and GPS data for the Slope Imaging Multi-polarization Photo-counting Lidar (SIMPL). However, the system has applications for other laser altimeter systems (waveform-recording), mass spectroscopy, xray radiometry imaging, high-background- rate ranging lidar, and other similar areas where very high-speed data capture is needed. The data capture software was used for the SIMPL instrument that employs a micropulse, single-photon ranging measurement approach and has 16 data channels. The detected single photons are from two sources those reflected from the target and solar background photons. The instrument is non-gated, so background photons are acquired for a range window of 13 km and can comprise many times the number of target photons. The highest background rate occurs when the atmosphere is clear, the Sun is high, and the target is a highly reflective surface such as snow. Under these conditions, the total data rate for the 16 channels combined is expected to be approximately 22 million events per second. For each photon detection event, the data capture software reads the relative time of receipt, with respect to a one-per-second absolute time pulse from a GPS receiver, from an event timer card with 0.1-ns precision, and records that information to a RAID (Redundant Array of Independent Disks) storage device. The relative time of laser pulse firings must also be read and recorded with the same precision. Each of the four event timer cards handles the throughput from four of the channels. For each detection event, a flag is recorded that indicates the source channel. To accommodate the expected maximum count rate and also handle the other extreme of very low rates occurring during nighttime operations, the software requests a set amount of data from each of the event timer cards and buffers the data. The software notes if any of the cards did not return all the data requested and then accommodates that lower rate. The data is buffered to minimize the I/O overhead of writing the data to storage. Care was taken to optimize the reads from the cards, the speed of the I/O bus, and RAID configuration.

Valett, Susan↗

Velocity Independent Constraints on Spin-Dependent DM-Nucleon Interactions from IceCube and PICO

Adopting the Standard Halo Model (SHM) of an isotropic Maxwellian velocity distribution for dark matter (DM) particles in the Galaxy, the most stringent current constraints on their spin-dependent scattering cross-section with nucleons come from the IceCube neutrino observatory and the PICO-60 $\hbox {C}_3\hbox {F}_8$ superheated bubble chamber experiments. The former is sensitive to high energy neutrinos from the self-annihilation of DM particles captured in the Sun, while the latter looks for nuclear recoil events from DM scattering off nucleons. Although slower DM particles are more likely to be captured by the Sun, the faster ones are more likely to be detected by PICO. Recent N-body simulations suggest significant deviations from the SHM for the smooth halo component of the DM, while observations hint at a dominant fraction of the local DM being in substructures. We use the method of Ferrer et al. (JCAP 1509: 052, 2015) to exploit the complementarity between the two approaches and derive conservative constraints on DM-nucleon scattering. Our results constrain $\sigma _{\mathrm{SD}} \lesssim 3 \times 10^{-39} \mathrm {cm}^2$ ($6 \times 10^{-38} \mathrm {cm}^2$) at $\gtrsim 90\%$ C.L. for a DM particle of mass 1 TeV annihilating into $\tau ^+ \tau ^-$ ($b\bar{b}$) with a local density of $\rho _{\mathrm{DM}} = 0.3~\mathrm {GeV/cm}^3$. The constraints scale inversely with $\rho _{\mathrm{DM}}$ and are independent of the DM velocity distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

Vimont, Daniel J.↗

Analysis of Phase-Type Stochastic Petri Nets With Discrete and Continuous Timing

The Petri net formalism is useful in studying many discrete-state, discrete-event systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and other complex behavior. As a bipartite graph, the net can conveniently capture salient aspects of the system. As a mathematical tool, the net can specify an analyzable state space. Indeed, one can reason about certain qualitative properties (from state occupancies) and how they arise (the sequence of events leading there). By introducing deterministic or random delays, the model is forced to sojourn in states some amount of time, giving rise to an underlying stochastic process, one that can be specified in a compact way and capable of providing quantitative, probabilistic measures. We formalize a new non-Markovian extension to the Petri net that captures both discrete and continuous timing in the same model. The approach affords efficient, stationary analysis in most cases and efficient transient analysis under certain restrictions. Moreover, this new formalism has the added benefit in modeling fidelity stemming from the simultaneous capture of discrete- and continuous-time events (as opposed to capturing only one and approximating the other). We show how the underlying stochastic process, which is non-Markovian, can be resolved into simpler Markovian problems that enjoy efficient solutions. Solution algorithms are provided that can be easily programmed.

Jones, Robert L.↗

Astronaut Health Participant Summary Application

The Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health (LSAH) Participant Summary software captures data based on a custom information model designed to gather all relevant, discrete medical events for its study participants. This software provides a summarized view of the study participant s entire medical record. The manual collapsing of all the data in a participant s medical record into a summarized form eliminates redundancy, and allows for the capture of entire medical events. The coding tool could be incorporated into commercial electronic medical record software for use in areas like public health surveillance, hospital systems, clinics, and medical research programs.

Johnson, Kathy↗