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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Eccentric preformative molt in the spotted Towhee

Examination of wing-feather molt often provides information essential for aging birds in the hand (Mulvihill 1993, pyle 1997b, 2008). Correctly aging birds is important for understanding the causal relationships between age-class survival rates and population changes (DeSante et al. 2005). For example, correctly aging birds facilitates understanding of climate effects on reproduction better than merely moni- toring population numbers because reproduction varies widely with annual weather patterns (DeSante and O’grady 2000). Age-class information can also provide a clear measure of habitat quality without confounding effects such as population sources and sinks (Van horne 1983) or misleading habitat-quality information based on relative abundance or population size (pulliam 1988). Changes in bird populations often lag changes in the survival rate of an age class, while environmental changes often affect one age class immediately or after a short lag (Temple and Wiens 1989)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Long‐term variation in environmental conditions influences host–parasite fitness

Abstract Long‐term data on host and parasite fitness are important for predicting how host–parasite interactions will be altered in an era of global change. Here, we use data collected from 1997 to 2013 to explore effects of changing environmental conditions on bird–blowfly interactions in northern New Mexico. The objectives of this study were to examine what climate variables influence blowfly prevalence and intensity and to determine whether blowflies and climate variables affect bird fledging success. We examined how temperature, precipitation, and drought affect two parasitic blowflies and their hosts, Western Bluebirds ( Sialia mexicana ) and Ash‐throated Flycatchers ( Myiarchus cinerascens ). We found that blowfly prevalence did not change over time. Blowfly intensity increased over time in bluebird nests, but not in flycatcher nests. More blowflies result in slightly higher fledging success in bluebirds, but not flycatchers. There was a significant interaction between blowflies and precipitation on bluebird fledging success. For flycatchers, there was a significant interaction between blowflies and temperature and between blowflies and drought severity on fledging success. Given that the southwest is projected to be hotter and have more frequent and prolonged droughts, we predict that flycatchers may be negatively impacted by blowflies if these trends continue. Future work should focus on investigating the role of both blowflies and climate on fledging success. Climate patterns may negatively impact host fitness through altered parasite pressure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delay China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated gridded (1 spatial resolution) runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), seven reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of these 14 estimates with stream gauge data, both as depleted flow and corrected for net withdrawals (2005 only), at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71 to 356 mm yr(-1)) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 or 280 mm yr(-1) when corrected for net withdrawals). Across all 14 products 8 exhibit Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8 and three are within 10% of the observed value. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions although two products are systematically biased across all regions and largely scales with water use. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities, individual product values are highly variable. At the coarse scales used here we find that progress in better constraining simulated runoff requires standardized forcing data and the explicit incorporation of human effects (e.g., water withdrawals by source, fire, and land use change). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Report for Wetlands as a Source of Atmospheric Methane: A Multiscale and Multidisciplinary Approach

Boreal peatlands contain large amounts of old carbon, protected by anaerobic and cold conditions. Climate change could result in favorable conditions for the microbial decomposition and release of this old peat carbon as CO2 or CH4 back into the atmosphere. Our goal was to test the potential for this positive biological feedback to climate change at SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Response Under Climatic and Environmental Change), a manipulation experiment funded by DOE and occurring in a forested bog in Minnesota. Taking advantage of LLNL’s capabilities and expertise in chemical and isotopic signatures we found that carbon emissions from peat were dominated by recently fixed photosynthates, even after short-term experimental warming. We also found that subsurface hydrologic transport was surprisingly rapid at SPRUCE, supplying microbes with young dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We also identified which microbes oxidize CH4 to CO2 at SPRUCE and found that the most active of these also fix N2 (which means they can utilize atmospheric N, making it accessible for other microbes and plants). These results reflect important interactions between hydrology, carbon cycling, and nitrogen cycling present at the bog and relevant to interpreting experimental results and modeling the wetland response to experimental treatments. LLNL involvement at SPRUCE continues through collaborations and a small contract with ORNL, the lead lab for the SPRUCE experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) Update and Meeting Objectives

Land Use/Cover Change (LU/CC) is one of the most important types of environmental change in South and Southeast Asian countries. Several studies suggest that LU/CC in these countries is in large part driven by population growth and economic development. In the region, changes that are most common include urban expansion, agricultural land loss, land abandonment, deforestation, logging, reforestation, etc. To address the research needs and priorities in the region, a regional initiative entitled South Southeast Asia Regional Initiative (SARI) has been developed involving US and regional scientists. The initiative is funded by NASA Land Cover, Land Use Change program. The goal of SARI is to integrate state-of-the-art remote sensing, natural sciences, engineering and social sciences to enrich LU/CC science in South Southeast Asian countries. In the presentation, LU/CC change research in SARI countries will be highlighted including the drivers of change. For example, in South Asia, forest cover has been increasing in countries like India, Nepal and Bhutan due to sustainable afforestation measures; whereas, large-scale deforestation in Southeast Asian countries is still continuing, due to oil palm plantation expansion driven by the international market demand in Malaysia and Indonesia. With respect to urbanization, South and Southeast Asian countries contain 23 megacities, each with more than 10 million people. Rapid urbanization is driving agricultural land loss and agricultural intensification has been increasing due to less availability of land for growing food crops such as in India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The drivers of LUCC vary widely in the region and include such factors as land tenure, local economic development, government policies, inappropriate land management, land speculation, improved road networks, etc. In addition, variability in the weather, climate, and socioeconomic factors also drive LU/CC resulting in disruptions of biogeochemical cycles, radiation and the surface energy balance of the atmosphere. The presentation will also highlight SARI collaborative activities with space agencies, universities and non-government organizations including data sharing mechanisms in the region.

Research↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗
DOE OSTI2014

Heterogeneous seeding of HET-s(218–289) and the mutability of prion structures

One fundamental property of prions is the formation of strains—prions that have distinct biological effects, despite a common amino acid sequence. The strain phenomenon is thought to be caused by the formation of different molecular structures, each encoding for a particular biological activity. While the precise mechanism of the formation of strains is unknown, they tend to arise following environmental changes, such as passage between different species. One possible mechanism discussed here is heterogeneous seeding; the formation of a prion nucleated by a different molecular structure. While heterogeneous seeding is not the only mechanism of prion mutation, it is consistent with some observations on species adaptation and drug resistance. Heterogeneous seeding provides a useful framework to understand how prions can adapt to new environmental conditions and change biological phenotypes.

Wan, William↗
DOE OSTI2012

Common garden experiments reveal uncommon responses across temperatures, locations, and species of ants

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding of the causes of compositional and spatial variation in responses to warming. Such experiments are useful for determining if geographically separated populations and co-occurring species respond differently to warming, and they provide the opportunity to compare effects of warming on fitness (survivorship and reproduction). We exposed colonies of two common ant species in the eastern United States, Aphaenogaster rudis and Temnothorax curvispinosus, collected along a latitudinal gradient from Massachusetts to North Carolina, to growth chamber treatments that simulated current and projected temperatures in central Massachusetts and central North Carolina within the next century. Regardless of source location, colonies of A. rudis, a keystone seed disperser, experienced high mortality and low brood production in the warmest temperature treatment. Colonies of T. curvispinosus from cooler locations experienced increased mortality in the warmest rearing temperatures, but colonies from the warmest locales did not. Our results suggest that populations of some common species may exhibit uniform declines in response to warming across their geographic ranges, whereas other species will respond differently to warming in different parts of their geographic ranges. Our results suggest that differential responses of populations and species must be incorporated into projections of range shifts in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Coupling Spatiotemporal Community Assembly Processes to Changes in Microbial Metabolism

Community assembly processes govern shifts in species abundances in response to environmental change, yet our understanding of assembly remains largely decoupled from ecosystem function. Here, we test hypotheses regarding assembly and function across space and time using hyporheic microbial communities as a model system. We pair sampling of two habitat types through hydrologic fluctuation with null modeling and multivariate statistics. We demonstrate that dual selective pressures assimilate to generate compositional changes at distinct timescales among habitat types, resulting in contrasting associations of Betaproteobacteria and Thaumarchaeota with selection and with seasonal changes in aerobic metabolism. Our results culminate in a conceptual model in which selection from contrasting environments regulates taxon abundance and ecosystem function through time, with increases in function when oscillating selection opposes stable selective pressures. Our model is applicable within both macrobial and microbial ecology and presents an avenue for assimilating community assembly processes into predictions of ecosystem function.

aerobic respiration↗
DOE OSTI2015

Fungi in the future: interannual variation and effects of atmospheric change on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

Summary Understanding the natural dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal ( AM ) fungi and their response to global environmental change is essential for the prediction of future plant growth and ecosystem functions. We investigated the long‐term temporal dynamics and effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) concentrations on AM fungal communities. Molecular methods were used to characterize the AM fungal communities of soybean ( Glycine max ) grown under elevated and ambient atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 within a free air concentration enrichment experiment in three growing seasons over 5 yr. Elevated CO 2 altered the community composition of AM fungi, increasing the ratio of Glomeraceae to Gigasporaceae. By contrast, no effect of elevated O 3 on AM fungal communities was detected. However, the greatest compositional differences detected were between years, suggesting that, at least in the short term, large‐scale interannual temporal dynamics are stronger mediators than atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of AM fungal communities. We conclude that, although atmospheric change may significantly alter AM fungal communities, this effect may be masked by the influences of natural changes and successional patterns through time. We suggest that changes in carbon availability are important determinants of the community dynamics of AM fungi.

18S rRNA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expedited desalination permitting enables adaptive planning and water system cost reduction

Seawater desalination is a drought-proof water supply for coastal cities, but widespread development of desalination plants in the U.S. has been limited by both cost and the complexity of permitting processes designed to minimize environmental impact . This work estimates the value of accelerating the permitting timeline without changing environmental or social standards. On average, faster permitting reduces the frequency of desalination plant construction and operation, the overall costs of robust water system operation, the environmental impacts of drought-tolerant water supplies due to shorter duration of plant operation. Expedited permitting allows fundamental changes in how water infrastructure is deployed, facilitating a transition from anticipatory construction and continuous operation of seawater desalination capacity as a redundant drought buffer to just-in-time (i.e. adaptive) deployment of seawater desalination capacity when critical drought thresholds are crossed. We demonstrate the value of expedited desalination permitting in enabling adaptive planning and reducing water system costs using a simple case study in Santa Barbara, CA. We discuss additional forms of adaptive water infrastructure planning as enabled by faster permitting and address their challenges and opportunities. Lastly, we identify synergies between innovation in adaptive planning, innovation in expedited permitting practices, and innovation in water technology.

adaptive planning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated network modeling approach defines key metabolic responses of soil microbiomes to perturbations

The soil environment is constantly changing due to shifts in soil moisture, nutrient availability and other conditions. To contend with these changes, soil microorganisms have evolved a variety of ways to adapt to environmental perturbations, including regulation of gene expression. However, it is challenging to untangle the complex phenotypic response of the soil to environmental change, partly due to the absence of predictive modeling frameworks that can mechanistically link molecular-level changes in soil microorganisms to a community’s functional phenotypes (or metaphenome). Towards filling this gap, we performed a combined analysis of metabolic and gene co-expression networks to explore how the soil microbiome responded to changes in soil moisture and nutrient conditions and to determine which genes were expressed under a given condition. Our integrated modeling approach revealed previously unknown, but critically important aspects of the soil microbiomes’ response to environmental perturbations. Incorporation of metabolomic and transcriptomic data into metabolic reaction networks identified condition-specific signature genes that are uniquely associated with dry, wet, and glycine-amended conditions. A subsequent gene co-expression network analysis revealed that drought-associated genes occupied more central positions in a network model of the soil community, compared to the genes associated with wet, and glycine-amended conditions. These results indicate the occurrence of system-wide metabolic coordination when soil microbiomes cope with moisture or nutrient perturbations. Importantly, the approach that we demonstrate here to analyze large-scale multi-omics data from a natural soil environment is applicable to other microbiome systems for which multi-omics data are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Determination of Ground Subsidence Around Snow Fences in the Arctic Region

In this study, we analyzed the effects of snow cover changes caused by snow fences (SFs) installed in 2017 in the Alaskan tundra to examine ground subsidence. Digital surface model data obtained through LiDAR-based remote sensing in 2019 and 2022, combined with a field survey in 2021, revealed approximately 0.2 m of ground subsidence around the SF. To investigate the relationship between SF-induced snow cover changes and ground subsidence, geophysical methods, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR), were applied in 2023 to analyze subsurface characteristics. The increased snow cover due to the SF-enhanced insulation, delaying the penetration of winter cold into the subsurface. This delay caused subsurface temperatures to decrease more slowly, melting the upper permafrost and increasing the thickness of the active layer. ERT and GPR surveys well delineated the boundary between the active layer and permafrost, confirming that the increased snow cover thickened the active layer. This thickening led to the melting of pore ice, causing water runoff and ground compaction, which resulted in subsidence. The runoff also formed channels flowing eastward over the SF. This study highlights how changes in snow cover can influence active layer properties, leading to localized environmental changes and ground subsidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A heuristic classification of woody plants based on contrasting shade and drought strategies

Woody plants vary in their adaptations to drought and shade. For a better prediction of vegetation responses to drought and shade within dynamic global vegetation models, it is critical to group species into functional types with similar adaptations. One of the key challenges is that the adaptations are generally determined by a large number of plant traits that may not be available for a large number of species. In this study, we present two heuristic woody plant groups that were separated using cluster analysis in a three-dimensional trait–environment space based on three key metrics for each species: mean xylem embolism resistance, shade tolerance and habitat aridity. The two heuristic groups separate these species into tolerators and avoiders. Furthermore, the tolerators either rely on their high embolism resistance to tolerate drought in arid habitats (e.g., Juniperus and Prunus ) or rely on high shade tolerance to withstand shaded conditions in wet habitats (e.g., Picea , Abies and Acer ). In contrast, all avoiders have low embolism resistance and low shade tolerance. In arid habitats, avoiders tend to minimize catastrophic embolism (e.g., most Pinus species) while in wet habitats, they may survive despite low shade tolerance (e.g., Betula , Populus , Alnus and Salix ). Because our approach links traits to the environmental conditions, we expect it could be a promising framework for predicting changes in species composition, and therefore ecosystem function, under changing environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Technosocial Predictive Analytics for Security Informatics

Challenges to the security, health, and sustainable growth of our society keep escalating asymmetrically due to the growing pace of globalization and global change. The increasing velocity of information sharing, social networking, economic forces, and environmental change has resulted in a rapid increase in the number and frequency of “game-changing moments” that a community can face. Social movements that once took a decade to build now take a year; shifts in public opinion that once took a year to take root now take a couple of months. More and more frequently, these critical moments occur too suddenly for the affected communities to succeed in countering the consequent adversities or seizing the emerging opportunities. Now more than ever, we need anticipatory reasoning technologies to forecast and manage change in order to secure and improve our way of life and the environment we inhabit.

analytical gaming↗
DOE OSTI2018

Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome

Trait-based ecology promises to predict community assembly1–3, ecosystem function4–6, and responses to environmental change4,7 across spatial and temporal scales. At the global scale the majority of plant trait variation is explained by just two dimensions8, corresponding to resource acquisition9 and plant size10,11. However, it is unknown whether (1) globally established trait relationships are maintained across biomes, (2) species level relationships could be invalidated by trait variation within species, and (3) trait variation is independent of scale. We tested these questions at the cold extremes of life on earth using the largest tundra plant trait database ever compiled. Here we show we found that tundra plants exhibited a two-axis spectrum consistent with global findings, and demonstrated remarkable consistency in the range of resource acquisition traits, but not size traits, compared to global trait distributions. The majority of trait variation occurred at the species level, but within-species variation comprised an important component of variation at local scales (<10 km2) and at low species richness (<10 species), implying that.... Our findings indicate that the dimensions of functional trait space are maintained in the coldest ecosystems on the planet despite strong environmental filtering of plant size, but that a greater focus on within-species trait variation is required to predict trait change at the community scale.

Bjorkman, Anne D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Brazilian Amazon: Smallholders, Ranchers and Frontier Stratification

Tropical deforestation is a significant driver of global environmental change, given its impacts on the carbon cycle and biodiversity. Loss of the Amazon forest, the focus of this article, is of particular concern because of the size and the rapid rate at which the forest is being converted to agricultural use. In this article, we identify what has been the most important driver of deforestation in a specific colonization frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. To this end, we consider (1) the land-use dynamics of smallholder households, (2) the formation of pasture by large-scale ranchers, and (3) structural processes of land aggregation by ranchers. Much has been written about relations between smallholders and ranchers in the Brazilian Amazon, particularly those involving conflict over land, and this article explicates the implications of such social processes for land cover. Toward this end, we draw on panel data (1996-2002) and satellite imagery (1986-1999) to show the deforestation that is attributable to small- and largeholders, and the deforestation that is attributable to aggregations of property arising from a process that we refer to as frontier stratification. Evidently, most of the recent deforestation in the study area has resulted from the household processes of smallholders, not from conversions to pasture pursuant to the appropriations of smallholders' property by well-capitalized ranchers or speculators.

Aldrich, Stephen P.↗