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DOE OSTI2022

Mitigating life cycle GHG emissions of roads to be built through 2030: Case study of a Chinese province

We report the expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Temporal Variability of Emissions Revealed by Continuous, Long-Term Monitoring of an Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility

Temporal variability contributes to uncertainty in inventories of methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain. Extrapolation of instantaneous, “snapshot-in-time” measurements, for example, can miss temporal intermittency and confound bottom-up/top-down comparisons. Importantly, no continuous long-term datasets record emission variability from underground natural gas storage facilities despite substantial contributions to sector-wide emissions. We present 11 months of continuous observations on a section of a storage site using dual-frequency comb spectroscopy (DCS observing system) and aircraft measurements. Here, we find high emission variability and a skewed distribution in which the 10% highest 3 h emission periods observed by the continuous DCS observing system comprise 41% of the total observed 3-hourly emissions. Monthly emission rates differ by >12×, and 3-hourly rates vary by 17× in 24 h. We find links to the operating phase of the facility—emission rates, including as a percentage of the total gas flow rate, are significantly higher during periods of injection compared to those of withdrawal. We find that if a high frequency of aircraft flights can occur, then the ground- and aircraft-based approaches show excellent agreement in emission distributions. A better understanding of emission variability at underground natural gas storage sites will improve inventories and models of methane emissions and clarify pathways toward mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗

DOE OSTI2021

Abell 1430: A merging cluster with exceptional diffuse radio emission

Diffuse radio emission has been found in many galaxy clusters, predominantly in massive systems which are in the state of merging. The radio emission can usually be classified as relic or halo emission, which are believed to be related to merger shocks or volume-filling turbulence, respectively. Recent observations have revealed radio bridges for some pairs of very close galaxy clusters. The mechanisms that may allow one to explain the high specific density of relativistic electrons, which are necessary to explain the radio luminosity of these bridge regions, have been poorly explored until now. When inspecting the first data release of the LOFAR Two-Metre Sky Survey (LoTSS), we discovered diffuse radio emission in the galaxy cluster Abell 1430. Here, for this work, we aim to determine the dynamical state of the cluster and characterise the diffuse radio emission. We analysed the LoTSS data in detail and complemented them with recent Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array observations in the L-band. To study the dynamical state of the cluster, we analysed XMM-Newton data, Chandra data, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey data. Moreover, we compared our results to clusters extracted from THE THREE HUNDRED PROJECT cosmological simulation. We find that Abell 1430 consists of two components, namely A1430-A and A1430-B, with a mass ratio of about 2:1. The massive component shows diffuse radio emission which can be classified as radio halo which shows a low radio power at 1.4 GHz with respect to the mass of the cluster. Most interestingly, there is extended diffuse radio emission in the following dubbed as the ‘Pillow’ according to its morphology, which is apparently related to A1430-B and which is neither typical halo nor typical relic emission. The origin of this emission is puzzling. We speculate that the two components of Abell 1430 undergo an off-axis merger. In this scenario, A1430-B is moving towards the main cluster component and may have compressed and stirred the medium in the filament between the two cluster components. We have discovered evidence for diffuse radio emission related to the low-density intracluster or intergalactic medium in Abell 1430. To date, only a few examples of emission originating from such regions are known. These discoveries are crucial to constrain possible acceleration mechanisms which may allow us to explain the presence of relativistic electrons in these regions. In particular, our results indicate a spectral index of α 144 MHz 1.5 GHz = -1.4±0.5 for the Pillow. If upcoming observations confirm a slope as flat as -1.4 or even flatter, this would pose a challenge for the electron acceleration scenarios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions of global construction material production

Abstract Global production of building materials is a primary contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but the production of these materials is necessary for modern infrastructure and society. Understanding the GHG emissions from building materials production in the context of their function is critical to decarbonizing this important sector. In this work, we present estimates of global production, approximate ranges of GHG emissions, and ranges of material properties of 12 critical building material classes to provide a unified dataset across material types. This dataset drew from industry analyses of production and emissions, ranges of emission factors within a material type, and broad reporting of thermal and mechanical properties to compare both within and between material types. Globally, in 2019, we estimate 42.8 Gt of these 12 materials were produced, with 38.6 Gt used in the building and construction industry. As a result of this production, 9.3 Gt of CO 2 was emitted, or 25% of global fossil GHG emissions, with 5.8 Gt CO 2 (16% of global GHG emissions) due to materials used in construction applications. Both construction material production and emissions are primarily driven by structural materials, such as concrete and steel. Material selection can play a key role in reducing emissions in the context of the function, with variation in emissions of structural materials per unit strength between 0.001–0.1 kg CO 2 /kg/MPa and in insulation materials per R -value/thickness of 0.018–0.14 kg CO 2 /kg/(K⋅m 2 W −1 ))). The developed dataset can play a key role in supporting decision-making in materials by providing a unified source for examining emissions, material properties, and quantity of material produced.

Kane, Seth (ORCID:0000000269401369)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of prechamber enabled mixing-controlled combustion strategy for ultra-low methane emissions from lean burn natural gas engines

This numerical study explores the optimization of Prechamber Enabled Mixing-Controlled Combustion (PC-MCC) using natural gas in heavy-duty engines, aiming to enhance combustion efficiency to minimize methane slip and NOx emissions. The approach involves a prechamber ignition system, distinct from conventional spark ignition (SI) systems, to initiate combustion of direct injected natural gas. By leveraging the robust ignition characteristics of the prechamber, the PC-MCC method demonstrates significant potential in achieving efficient combustion akin to diesel engines but with lower greenhouse gas emissions. The research evaluates the effects of various geometric and operational parameters on the combustion process and emissions, including prechamber volume, nozzle diameter, direct injector (DI) geometry, and engine operating strategies. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are utilized, focusing on a heavy-duty, single-cylinder engine modeled after the Caterpillar C9.3B engine. Key findings indicate that a prechamber volume of 3 cc, coupled with a nozzle diameter of 2.75 mm for two prechamber holes, strikes an optimal balance between combustion efficiency and emissions reduction. This configuration ensures robust combustion across a range of operating conditions while maintaining methane slip within targeted limits. Further investigation into DI geometry shows the significance of the injector umbrella angle and nozzle diameter in shaping the fuel-air mixing and combustion dynamics. An umbrella angle of 130° and a nozzle diameter of 300 microns are identified as optimal, promoting rapid and efficient combustion with minimized methane and NOx emissions. The study also investigates the impact of injection timing and pressure, highlighting their roles in controlling combustion timing and influencing emissions levels. Advanced injection timing is found to be crucial in achieving the desired low methane slip, whereas retarded injection timing assists to reduce NOx emissions while having a slight increase in methane emissions. Operating strategies incorporating various levels of Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) are assessed for their effectiveness in further reducing emissions. The research demonstrates that a judicious combination of internal hot EGR and careful calibration of DI pressure and SOI timing can achieve significant reductions in NOx emissions while keeping methane slip under control. Specifically, an internal EGR level of 15%–25%, combined with DI pressures of 200–300 bar and injection timings at or after top dead center, is recommended. These findings contribute valuable insights into the development of advanced combustion techniques for natural gas engines, offering a viable pathway to reduce methane slip without compromising engine efficiency or performance. The PC-MCC system presents a promising solution for the future of heavy-duty natural gas engine technology to reduce methane emissions.

Nsaif, Osama↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗

DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Surficial Biochar Treatment on Acute H2S Emissions during Swine Manure Agitation before Pump-Out: Proof-of-the-Concept

Acute releases of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) are of serious concern in agriculture, especially when farmers agitate manure to empty storage pits before land application. Agitation can cause the release of dangerously high H2S concentrations, resulting in human and animal fatalities. To date, there is no proven technology to mitigate these short-term releases of toxic gas from manure. In our previous research, we have shown that biochar, a highly porous carbonaceous material, can float on manure and mitigate gaseous emissions over extended periods (days–weeks). In this research, we aim to test the hypothesis that biochar can mitigate H2S emissions over short periods (minutes–hours) during and shortly after manure agitation. The objective was to conduct proof-of-the-concept experiments simulating the treatment of agitated manure. Two biochars, highly alkaline and porous (HAP, pH 9.2) made from corn stover and red oak (RO, pH 7.5), were tested. Three scenarios (setups): Control (no biochar), 6 mm, and 12 mm thick layers of biochar were surficially-applied to the manure. Each setup experienced 3 min of manure agitation. Real-time concentrations of H2S were measured immediately before, during, and after agitation until the concentration returned to the initial state. The results were compared with those of the Control using the following three metrics: (1) the maximum (peak) flux, (2) total emission from the start of agitation until the concentration stabilized, and (3) the total emission during the 3 min of agitation. The Gompertz’s model for determination of the cumulative H2S emission kinetics was developed. Here, 12 mm HAP biochar treatment reduced the peak (1) by 42.5% (p = 0.125), reduced overall total emission (2) by 17.9% (p = 0.290), and significantly reduced the total emission during 3 min agitation (3) by 70.4%. Further, 6 mm HAP treatment reduced the peak (1) by 60.6%, and significantly reduced overall (2) and 3 min agitation’s (3) total emission by 64.4% and 66.6%, respectively. Moreover, 12 mm RO biochar treatment reduced the peak (1) by 23.6%, and significantly reduced overall (2) and 3 min total (3) emission by 39.3% and 62.4%, respectively. Finally, 6 mm RO treatment significantly reduced the peak (1) by 63%, overall total emission (2) by 84.7%, and total emission during 3 min agitation (3) by 67.4%. Biochar treatments have the potential to reduce the risk of inhalation exposure to H2S. Both 6 and 12 mm biochar treatments reduced the peak H2S concentrations below the General Industrial Peak Limit (OSHA PEL, 50 ppm). The 6 mm biochar treatments reduced the H2S concentrations below the General Industry Ceiling Limit (OSHA PEL, 20 ppm). Research scaling up to larger manure volumes and longer agitation is warranted.

Chen, Baitong (ORCID:0000000266071253)↗

DOE OSTI2022

SDSS J1058+5443: A Blue Quasar without Optical/NUV Broad Emission Lines

In this paper, the blue quasar SDSS J105816.19+544310.2 (=SDSS J1058+5443) at redshift 0.479 has been reported as the best true type 2 quasar candidate with the disappearance of central broad-line regions. There are no definite conclusions on the very existence of true type 2 active galactic nuclei (AGN), mainly due to detected optical broad emission lines in high-quality spectra of some previously classified true type 2 AGN candidates. Here, unlike previously reported true type 2 AGN candidates among narrow emission-line galaxies with weak AGN activities but strong stellar lights, the definitely blue quasar SDSS J1058+5443 can be well confirmed as a true type 2 quasar due to apparent quasar-shape blue continuum emissions but an apparent loss of both the optical broad Balmer emission lines and the near-UV (NUV) broad Mg II emission line. Based on different model functions and the F-test statistical technique, after considering blueshifted optical and UV Fe II emissions, there are no apparent broad optical Balmer emission lines and/or broad NUV Mg II lines, and the confidence level is smaller than 1σ in support of broad optical and NUV emission lines. Moreover, assuming the virialization assumption to broad-line emission clouds, the reconstructed broad emission lines strongly indicate that the probable intrinsic broad emission lines, if they exist, cannot be hidden or overwhelmed in the noise of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectrum of SDSS J1058+5443. Therefore, SDSS J1058+5443 is so far the best and most robust true type 2 quasar candidate, leading to the clear conclusion of the very existence of true type 2 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest

Anthropogenic emissions have been shown to affect new particle formation, aerosol concentrations, and clouds. Such effects vary with region, environmental conditions, and cloud types. In the wet season of Amazonia, anthropogenic emissions emitted from Manaus, Brazil, can significantly increase the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations compared to the background of mainly natural aerosols. However, the regional response of cloud and rain to anthropogenic emissions in Amazonia remains very uncertain. Here, we aim to quantify how aerosol concentration, cloud, and rain respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions through parameterized new particle formation and primary aerosol emission in the Manaus region and to understand the underlying mechanisms. We ran the atmosphere-only configuration of the HadGEM3 climate model with a nested regional domain that covers most of the rainforest region (720 km by 1200 km with 3 km resolution) under scaled regional emissions. The 7 d simulations show that, in the areas that are affected by anthropogenic emissions, when aerosol and precursor gas emissions are doubled from the baseline emission inventories, aerosol number concentrations increase by 13 %. The nucleation rate that involves sulfuric acid and biogenic compounds generally increases with pollution levels. However, nucleation is suppressed very close to the pollution source, resulting in lower nucleation and soluble Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations. We also found that doubling the anthropogenic emission can increase the cloud droplet number concentrations ( N d ) by 9 %, but cloud water and rain mass mixing ratios do not change significantly. Even very strong reductions in aerosol number concentrations by a factor of 4, which is an unrealistic condition, cause only a 4 % increase in rain over the domain. If we assume our simulation has a fine enough grid resolution and an accurate representation of the relevant atmospheric processes, the simulated weak and non-linear response of cloud and rain properties to linearly scaled anthropogenic emissions suggests that the interactions among aerosol, cloud, and precipitation in the Amazonian convective environment are buffered by microphysical processes. It also implies that the convective environment is resilient to the changes in Nd that occur in response to localized anthropogenic aerosol perturbations.

Wang, Xuemei [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Emissions of an AVCO Lycoming 0-320-DIAD air cooled light aircraft engine as a function of fuel-air ratio, timing, and air temperature and humidity

A carbureted aircraft engine was operated over a range of test conditions to establish the exhaust levels over the EPA seven-mode emissions cycle. Baseline (full rich production limit) exhaust emissions at an induction air temperature of 59 F and near zero relative humidity were 90 percent of the EPA standard for HC, 35 percent for NOx, and 161 percent for CO. Changes in ignition timing around the standard 25 deg BTDC from 30 deg BTDC to 20 deg BTDC had little effect on the exhaust emissions. Retarding the timing to 15 deg BTDC increased both the HC and CO emissions and decreased NOx emissions. HC and CO emissions decreased as the carburetor was leaned out, while NOx emissions increased. The EPA emission standards were marginally achieved at two leanout conditions. Variations in the quantity of cooling air flow over the engine had no effect on exhaust emissions. Temperature-humidity effects at the higher values of air temperature and relative humidity tested indicated that the HC and CO emissions increased significantly, while the NOx emissions decreased.

Meng, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

DMS emissions from Sphagnum-dominated wetlands

The role of terrestrial sources of biogenic S and their effect on atmospheric chemistry remain as major unanswered questions in our understanding of the natural S cycle. The role of northern wetlands as sources and sinks of gaseous S was investigated by measuring rates of S gas exchange as a function of season, hydrologic conditions, and gradients in trophic status. Experiments were conducted in wetlands in New Hampshire (NH), and in Mire 239, a poor fen at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in Ontario. Emissions were determined using Teflon enclosures, gas cryotrapping methods, and GC with flame photometric detection. Emissions of DMS dominated fluxes. In NH, DMS fluxes were greater than 1.6 micromol/m(sup -2)d(sup -1) in early summer, 1989 when temperatures were warm and the water table was approximately 5 cm below the surface. These rates are several-fold faster than average oceanic rates of DMS emission. A rapid drop in the water table resulted in a 6-fold decrease in DMS emissions in late July. In 1990, a new beaver dam kept water levels above the surface and S emissions were much lower than during 1989. The elimination of the beaver and a drop in the water table in August produced a rapid increase in S gas emissions. Emissions of DMS were highest in the most oligotrophic areas. Mire 239 (ELA) was irrigated with sulfuric and nitric acids to simulate acid rain. S emissions were determined before and after an acidification event in control and experimental areas in both minerotrophic and oligotrophic regions. Emissions of DMS were higher in the acidified areas compared to unacidified controls. Emissions were also much higher in the oligotrophic regions compared to the minerotrophic ones. Despite the wide differences in S gas fluxes (20-fold), it was difficult to determine whether acidification or variations in trophic status was not responsible for differences in S gas emissions. DMS emitted into the atmosphere was not derived from the water table but originated in peat in the unsaturated zone.

Hines, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Quantitative Interpretation of Optical Emission Sensors for Microgravity Experiments

Microgravity flight experiments uniquely test our knowledge and understanding of the coupling between chemistry and fluid mechanics. However, compared to ground based laboratory experiments the number of useful diagnostic tools suitable for microgravity environments is severely limited by the space, weight, power consumption, and operator complexity requirements. One of the available tools is the observation of optical emission, and total emission has already proven useful for observations of stable "flame balls" on the space shuttle. Wavelength resolved tomographic measurements of flame emission offer the promise of diagnostics to test our understanding of flame chemistry and structure. Individual emissions from electronically excited radicals, e.g., CH*, OH*, and C2*, can be identified in a methane/air flame. Spatially resolved measurements of the intensity of this resolved optical emission from a specific excited molecule enable chemically resolved flame structure studies. Wavelength resolved emission measurements to determine such structure in diffusion flames are being readied for flight experiments by a group at Yale headed by Profs. Smooke and Long. A quantitative relationship between emission intensity and flame properties, as expressed by a flame model, is needed for species specific optical emission measurements to fulfill its promise. The Yale group compared models and measurements of optical emission in laboratory tests at 1-g. Unfortunately, these experiments show disagreement between measurement and state-of-the-art flame models by over a factor of 50. Therefore, an improved chemical mechanism for optical emission from flames is needed to enable quantitative tests of microgravity flame models. The connection between excited state emission and flame chemistry is not yet adequate.

Jeffries, Jay B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Interannual Variations 1982-1993 - 2

A global run of a process-based methane model [Walter et al., this issue] is performed using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF reanalyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions to be 260 Tg/ yr. 25% of methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 deg. N. Only 60% of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands, the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well. The effects of sub-grid scale variations in model parameters and input data are examined. Modeled methane emissions show high regional, seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal cycles of methane emissions are dominated by temperature in high latitude wetlands, and by changes in the water table in tropical wetlands. Sensitivity tests show that +/- 1 C changes in temperature lead to +/- 20 % changes in methane emissions from wetlands. Uniform changes of +/- 20% in precipitation alter methane emissions by about +/- 18%. Limitations in the model are analyzed. Simulated interannual variations in methane emissions from wetlands are compared to observed atmospheric growth rate anomalies. Our model simulation results suggest that contributions from other sources than wetlands and/or the sinks are more important in the tropics than north-of 30 deg. N. In higher northern latitudes, it seems that a large part, of the observed interannual variations can be explained by variations in wetland emissions. Our results also suggest that reduced wetland emissions played an important role in the observed negative methane growth rate anomaly in 1992.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗