A dynamic input-output model of the California educational system
Dynamic programming input-output model of California educational system - correlation of educational variables to economic planning
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Dynamic programming input-output model of California educational system - correlation of educational variables to economic planning
Energy Conservation Program (ECP) gives design engineer methodology and easy-to-use computer program for simulating hourly thermal characteristics over full year for individually characterized zones within building. Inexpensive system can be used to develop thermal model of building to aid selection of most suitable and economical heating and cooling system for building
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
This paper describes a comprehensive and efficient computer program for the modeling of wind energy systems with storage. The level of detail of SIMWEST (SImulation Model for Wind Energy STorage) is consistent with evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind energy systems with energy storage options. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and control components. The first program is a precompiler which allows the library components to be put together in building block form. The second program performs the technoeconomic system analysis with the required input/output, and the integration of system dynamics. An example of the application of the SIMWEST program to a current 100 kW wind energy storage system is given.
The analysis of the benefits and costs of aeronautical research and technology (ABC-ART) models are documented. These models were developed by NASA for use in analyzing the economic feasibility of applying advanced aeronautical technology to future civil aircraft. The methodology is composed of three major modules: fleet accounting module, airframe manufacturing module, and air carrier module. The fleet accounting module is used to estimate the number of new aircraft required as a function of time to meet demand. This estimation is based primarily upon the expected retirement age of existing aircraft and the expected change in revenue passenger miles demanded. Fuel consumption estimates are also generated by this module. The airframe manufacturer module is used to analyze the feasibility of the manufacturing the new aircraft demanded. The module includes logic for production scheduling and estimating manufacturing costs. For a series of aircraft selling prices, a cash flow analysis is performed and a rate of return on investment is calculated. The air carrier module provides a tool for analyzing the financial feasibility of an airline purchasing and operating the new aircraft. This module includes a methodology for computing the air carrier direct and indirect operating costs, performing a cash flow analysis, and estimating the internal rate of return on investment for a set of aircraft purchase prices.
A Poisson type model was developed and exercised to estimate the risk of economic losses through 1993 due to potential electric effects of carbon fibers released from United States general aviation aircraft in the aftermath of a fire. Of the expected 354 annual general aviation aircraft accidents with fire projected for 1993, approximately 88 could involve carbon fibers. The average annual loss was estimated to be about $250 (1977 dollars) and the likelihood of exceeding $107,000 (1977 dollars) in annual loss in any one year was estimated to be at most one in ten thousand.
A review is conducted of cost-research studies intended to provide guidelines for cost estimates of integrating new technologies into existing satellite systems. Quantitative methods are described for determining the technological state-of-the-art so that proposed programs can be evaluated accurately in terms of their contribution to technological development. The R&D costs associated with the proposed programs are then assessed with attention given to the technological advances. Also incorporated quantifiably are any reductions in the costs of production, operations, and support afforded by the advanced technologies. The proposed model is employed in relation to a satellite sizing and cost study in which a tradeoff between increased R&D costs and reduced production costs is examined. The technology/cost model provides a consistent yardstick for assessing the true relative economic impact of introducing novel techniques and technologies.
This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information, there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.
This paper discusses the various approaches to measuring the value of information, first defining the meanings of information, economics of information, and value. It concludes that no general model of measuring the value of information is possible and that the usual approaches, such as cost/benefit equations, have very limited applications. It also concludes that in specific contexts with given goals for newly developed products and services or newly acquired information there is a basis for its objective valuation. The axioms and inputs for such a model are described and directions for further verification and analysis are proposed.
To cope with air traffic growth and congested airports, two solutions are apparent on the supply side: 1) use larger aircraft in the hub and spoke system; or 2) develop new routes through secondary airports. An enlarged route system through secondary airports may increase the proportion of route monopolies in the air transport market.The monopoly optimal non linear pricing policy is well known in the case of one dimension (one instrument, one characteristic) but not in the case of several dimensions. This paper explores the robustness of the one dimensional screening model with respect to increasing the number of instruments and the number of characteristics. The objective of this paper is then to link and fill the gap in both literatures. One of the merits of the screening model has been to show that a great varieD" of economic questions (non linear pricing, product line choice, auction design, income taxation, regulation...) could be handled within the same framework.VCe study a case of non linear pricing (2 instruments (2 routes on which the airline pro_ddes customers with services), 2 characteristics (demand of services on these routes) and two values per characteristic (low and high demand of services on these routes)) and we show that none of the conclusions of the one dimensional analysis remain valid. In particular, upward incentive compatibility constraint may be binding at the optimum. As a consequence, they may be distortion at the top of the distribution. In addition to this, we show that the optimal solution often requires a kind of form of bundling, we explain explicitly distortions and show that it is sometimes optimal for the monopolist to only produce one good (instead of two) or to exclude some buyers from the market. Actually, this means that the monopolist cannot fully apply his monopoly power and is better off selling both goods independently.We then define all the possible solutions in the case of a quadratic cost function for a uniform distribution of agent types and explain the implications for airlines in terms of service differentiation.
This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
High area throughput rate will be required for the economical production of silicon dendritic web for solar cells. Web width depends largely on the temperature distribution on the melt surface while growth speed is controlled by the dissipation of the latent heat of fusion. Thermal models were developed to investigate each of these aspects, and were used to engineer the design of laboratory equipment capable of producing crystals over 4 cm wide; growth speeds up to 10 cm/min were achieved. The web crystals were characterized by resistivity, lifetime and etch pit density data as well as by detailed solar cell I-V data. Solar cells ranged in efficiency from about 10 to 14.5% (AM-1) depending on growth conditions. Cells with lower efficiency displayed lowered bulk lifetime believed to be due to surface contamination.
The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.
The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.
The purpose of this paper is to express the rationale for continued technological and scientific development of the modeling and simulation process for the defense industry. The defense industry, along with a variety of other industries, is currently being forced into making sacrifices in response to the current economic hardships. These sacrifices, which may not compromise the safety of our nation, nor jeopardize our current standing as the world peace officer, must be concentrated in areas which will withstand the needs of the changing world. Therefore, the need for cost effective alternatives of defense issues must be examined. This paper provides support that the modeling and simulation process is an economically feasible process which will ensure our nation's safety as well as provide and keep up with the future technological developments and demands required by the defense industry. The outline of this paper is as follows: introduction, which defines and describes the modeling and simulation process; discussion, which details the purpose and benefits of modeling and simulation and provides specific examples of how the process has been successful; and conclusion, which summarizes the specifics of modeling and simulation of defense issues and lends the support for its continued use in the defense arena.
Information is a critical resource in disaster response scenarios. Data regarding the geographic extent, severity, and socioeconomic impacts of a disaster event can help guide emergency responders and relief operations, particularly when delivered within hours of data acquisition. Information from remote observations provides a valuable tool for assessing conditions "on the ground" more quickly and efficiently. Here, we evaluate the social value of a near real-time flood impact system using a disaster response case study, and quantify the Value of Information (VOI) of satellite-based observations for rapid response using a hypothetical flooding disaster in Bangkok, Thailand. MODIS imagery from NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) system is used to produce operational estimates of inundation depths and economic damages.These rapid Earth observations are coupled with a decision-analytical model to inform decisions on emergency vehicle routing. Emergency response times from vehicles routed using flood damage data are compared with baseline routes without the benefit of advance information on road conditions. Our results illustrate how the application of near real-time Earth observations can improve the response time and reduce potential encounters with flood hazards when compared with baseline routing strategies. Results indicate a potential significant economic benefit (i.e.,millions of dollars) from applying near real-time Earth observations for improved flood disaster response and management.
Shallow nearshore coastal waters provide a wealth of societal, economic and ecosystem services, yet their topographic structure is poorly mapped due to a reliance upon expensive and time intensive methods. Space‐borne bathymetric mapping has helped address these issues, but has remained largely dependent upon in situ measurements. Here we fuse ICESat‐2 lidar data with Sentinel‐2 optical imagery, within the Google Earth Engine cloud platform, to create openly available spatially continuous high‐resolution bathymetric maps at regional‐to‐national scales in Florida, Crete and Bermuda. ICESat‐2 bathymetric classified photons are used to train three Satellite Derived Bathymetry (SDB) methods, including Lyzenga, Stumpf and Support Vector Regression algorithms. For each study site the Lyzenga algorithm yielded the lowest RMSE (approx. 10‐15%) when compared with validation data. We demonstrate a means of using ICESat‐2 for both model calibration and validation, thus cementing a pathway for fully space‐borne estimates of nearshore bathymetry in shallow, clear water environments.