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At least 271 records · Page 15

Modulation of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Seasonal Cycle by Tropical Instability Waves

Feedbacks from tropical instability waves (TIWs) on the seasonal cycle of the eastern Pacific Ocean are studied using two eddy-rich ocean simulations, with and without TIWs. By warming the equatorial waters by up to 0.4°C through nonlinear advection in boreal summer and fall, TIWs reduce the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in upper ocean temperatures. In addition, TIWs stabilize the upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) through enhanced barotropic energy conversion, leading to a year-round weakening by -0.15 m s -1 and preventing an unrealistic re-intensification in boreal fall usually found in non-eddy resolving models. A coarser simulation at 1-degree horizontal resolution fails to reproduce the TIW-induced nonlinear warming of equatorial waters, but succeeds in inhibiting the EUC re-intensification. This suggests a threshold effect in TIW strength, associated with the model's ability to simulate eddies, which may be responsible for long-standing biases displayed by global climate models in this region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Century of Reforestation Reduced Anthropogenic Warming in the Eastern United States

Abstract Restoring and preserving the world's forests are promising natural pathways to mitigate some aspects of climate change. In addition to regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, forests modify surface and near‐surface air temperatures through biophysical processes. In the eastern United States (EUS), widespread reforestation during the 20th century coincided with an anomalous lack of warming, raising questions about reforestation's contribution to local cooling and climate mitigation. Using new cross‐scale approaches and multiple independent sources of data, we uncovered links between reforestation and the response of both surface and air temperature in the EUS. Ground‐ and satellite‐based observations showed that EUS forests cool the land surface by 1–2°C annually compared to nearby grasslands and croplands, with the strongest cooling effect during midday in the growing season, when cooling is 2–5°C. Young forests (20–40 years) have the strongest cooling effect on surface temperature. Surface cooling extends to the near‐surface air, with forests reducing midday air temperature by up to 1°C compared to nearby non‐forests. Analyses of historical land cover and air temperature trends showed that the cooling benefits of reforestation extend across the landscape. Locations surrounded by reforestation were up to 1°C cooler than neighboring locations that did not undergo land cover change, and areas dominated by regrowing forests were associated with cooling temperature trends in much of the EUS. Our work indicates reforestation contributed to the historically slow pace of warming in the EUS, underscoring reforestation's potential as a local climate adaptation strategy in temperate regions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Influence of Eastern Pacific Hurricanes on the Southwest US Wildfire Environment

Abstract While some previous studies examined the contribution of Eastern Pacific (EP) hurricanes toward precipitation in the arid Southwest US (SWUS), their potential to influence wildfires in that region has not been explored. Here we show, using observations and simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), that recurving EP hurricanes modulate the wildfire environment in the SWUS by increasing precipitation and soil moisture, and reducing the vapor pressure deficit. This is especially the case during late season months of September–October when the likelihood of storms to recurve and make landfall increases. Further, analysis of burnt area observations reveals that for the months of September–October, recurving EP hurricanes may significantly reduce the prevalence of wildfires in the SWUS. Finally, E3SM simulations indicate that late season EP hurricanes have been on the decline, with important implications for wildfires in the SWUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Rivers in the Eastern and Midwestern United States Associated With Baroclinic Waves

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and associated extremes in western continental regions. Recent studies suggest ARs also influence water resources and extremes in continental interiors. AR detection tools indicate that AR conditions are relatively frequent in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. The origin of these ARs, whether from synoptic-scale waves or mesoscale processes, is unclear. This study uses meteorological composite maps and transects of AR conditions during the four seasons. The analysis reveals that ARs east of the Rockies are associated with long-wave, baroclinic Rossby waves. This result demonstrates that eastern North American ARs are dynamically similar to their western coastal counterparts, though mechanisms for vertical moisture flux differ between the two. These findings provide a foundation for understanding future climate change and ARs in this region and offer new methods for evaluating climate model simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Drivers of Cloud Condensation Nuclei in the Eastern North Atlantic as Observed at the ARM Site

Abstract Seven years of data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are analyzed to understand the controls of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) concentrations in the region. Day‐night differences in the aerosol data as segregated by wind direction demonstrate the aerosol observations to be impacted by local emissions when the wind direction (wdir) is between 90° and 310° (measured clockwise from the North where air is coming from). Data collected during marine conditions (wdir <90° or wdir >310°) show the CCN concentrations to be higher in the summer months as compared to the winter months. CCN budget analysis revealed advection and precipitation scavenging being primarily responsible for modulating the CCN concentrations at the site on monthly timescales, with rain rates driving the precipitation scavenging term. High (greater than 75th percentile) and low (lower than 25th percentile) CCN events were identified for each month to characterize the sub‐monthly variability of CCN concentrations. Low CCN events had thicker clouds, stronger rain rates, and lower reanalysis reported free‐tropospheric aerosol pseudo number concentration at the ENA site as compared to the high CCN events. Analysis of satellite data of air‐parcels 48 hr prior to their arrival at the ENA site demonstrated the air parcels during low CCN events to encounter higher cloudiness, stronger rain rates, and higher cloud top heights as compared to the high CCN events. The results presented herein provide key constraints for model evaluation studies and climatological studies conducted at the ENA site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating New Particle Formation and Growth Over an Urban Location in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract This study investigates the new particle formation (NPF) events at an urban location in the Eastern Mediterranean. Particle size distribution, particulate chemical composition, and gaseous pollutants were monitored in Rehovot, Israel (31°53″N 34°48″E) during two campaigns: from April 29 to 3 May 2021 (Campaign 1) and from May 3 to 11 May 2023 (Campaign 2), coinciding with an intensive bonfire burning festival. The organic aerosols (OA) source apportionment identified two major factors—Hydrocarbon‐like OA and Biomass‐burning OA—as well as two secondary factors—MO‐OOA (more oxidized‐oxygenated OA) and LO‐OOA (low oxidized oxygenated OA). NPF events were frequently observed during the day (mostly well‐defined nucleation events) and at night (burst of ultrafine mode particles without any discernible growth). A condensation sink value of (9.4 ± 4.0) × 10 −3 s −1 during Campaign 1 and (14.2 ± 6.0) × 10 −3 s −1 during Campaign 2 was obtained. The daytime events were associated with enhanced sulfuric acid proxy concentrations of (2–12) × 10 6 molecules cm −3 , suggesting the role of gas‐phase photochemistry in promoting NPF. A novel approach of hybrid positive matrix factorization analysis was used to deconvolve the chemical species responsible for the observed events. The results suggest the involvement of multiple components, including ammonium sulfate and MO‐OOA, in the nucleation; Nitrate, HOA and LO‐OOA participate in the subsequent particle growth for the daytime events. Nighttime events involve only semi‐volatile species (LO‐OOA, HOA and nitrate) along with ammonium sulfate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Variability of Eastern North Atlantic Summertime Marine Boundary Layer Clouds and Aerosols Across Different Synoptic Regimes Identified With Multiple Conditions

Abstract This study estimates the meteorological covariations of aerosol and marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region, characterized by diverse synoptic conditions. Using a deep‐learning‐based clustering model with mid‐level and surface daily meteorological data, we identify seven distinct synoptic regimes during the summer from 2016 to 2021. Our analysis, incorporating reanalysis data and satellite retrievals, shows that surface aerosols and MBL clouds exhibit clear regime‐dependent characteristics, whereas lower tropospheric aerosols do not. This discrepancy likely arises from synoptic regimes determined by daily large‐scale conditions, which may overlook air mass histories that predominantly dictate lower tropospheric aerosol conditions. Focusing on three regimes dominated by northerly winds, we analyze the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) ENA observations on Graciosa Island in the Azores. In the subtropical anticyclone regime, fewer cumulus clouds and more single‐layer stratocumulus clouds with light drizzle are observed, along with the highest cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and surface aerosol levels. The post‐trough regime features more broken or multi‐layer stratocumulus clouds with slightly higher surface rain rate, and lower Nd and surface CCN levels. The weak trough regime is characterized by the deepest MBL clouds, primarily cumulus and broken stratocumulus clouds, with the strongest surface rain rate and the lowest Nd, surface CCN and surface aerosol levels, indicating strong wet scavenging. These findings highlight the importance of considering the covariation of cloud and aerosol properties driven by large‐scale regimes when assessing aerosol indirect effects using observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗

Geographic patterns of co-occurrence network topological features for soil microbiota at continental scale in eastern China

Soil microbiota play a critical role in soil biogeochemical processes and have a profound effect on soil functions. Recent studies have revealed microbial co-occurrence patterns in soil microbial communities, yet the geographic pattern of topological features in soil microbial co-occurrence networks at the continental scale are largely unknown. Here, we investigated the shifts of topological features in co-occurrence networks inferred from soil microbiota along a continental scale in eastern China. Integrating archaeal, bacterial and fungal community datasets, we inferred a meta-community co-occurrence network and analyzed node-level and network-level topological shifts associated with five climatic regions. Both node-level and network-level topological features revealed geographic patterns wherein microorganisms in the northern regions had closer relationships but had a lower interaction influence than those in the southern regions. We further identified topological differences associated with taxonomic groups and demonstrated that co-occurrence patterns were random for archaea and non-random for bacteria and fungi. Given that microbial interactions may contribute to soil functions more than species diversity, this geographic shift of topological features provides new insight into studying microbial biogeographic patterns, their organization and impacts on soil-associated function.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapid Response of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Sea Microbial Communities to Oil

Deep marine oil spills like the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) in the Gulf of Mexico have the potential to drastically impact marine systems. Crude oil contamination in marine systems remains a concern, especially for countries around the Mediterranean Sea with off shore oil production. The goal of this study was to investigate the response of indigenous microbial communities to crude oil in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea (E. Med.) water column and to minimize potential bias associated with storage and shifts in microbial community structure from sample storage. 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing was combined with GeoChip metagenomic analysis to monitor the microbial community changes to the crude oil and dispersant in on-ship microcosms set up immediately after water collection. After 3 days of incubation at 14 °C, the microbial communities from two different water depths: 824 m and 1210 m became dominated by well-known oil degrading bacteria. The archaeal population and the overall microbial community diversity drastically decreased. Similarly, GeoChip metagenomic analysis revealed a tremendous enrichment of genes related to oil biodegradation, which was consistent with the results from the DWH oil spill. Furthermore, these results highlight a rapid microbial adaption to oil contamination in the deep E. Med., and indicate strong oil biodegradation potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud processing and weeklong ageing affect biomass burning aerosol properties over the south-eastern Atlantic

Abstract Southern Africa produces a third of global biomass burning emissions, which have a long atmospheric lifetime and influence regional radiation balance and climate. Here, we use airmass trajectories to link different aircraft observations to investigate the evolution of biomass-burning aerosols during their westward transport from Southern Africa over the south-eastern Atlantic, where a semi-permanent stratocumulus cloud deck is located. Our results show secondary organic aerosol formation during the initial 3 days of transport, followed by decreases in organic aerosol via photolysis before reaching equilibrium. Aerosol absorption wavelength dependency decreases with ageing, due to an increase in particle size and photochemical bleaching of brown carbon. Cloud processing, including aqueous-phase reaction and scavenging, contributes to the oxidation of organic aerosols, while it strongly reduces large diameter particles and single-scattering albedo of biomass burning aerosols. Together, these processes resulted in a marine boundary layer with fewer yet more oxidized and absorbing aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inter‐area oscillation statistical analysis of the U.S. Eastern interconnection

Although extensive studies have been conducted on inter‐area oscillation detection and analysis by using phasor measurement data, few have focused on inter‐area oscillation statistics due to the lack of considerably long‐term and high‐resolution recorded data. A preliminary statistical analysis on the inter‐area oscillations that occurred in the U.S. Eastern interconnection from 2010 to 2015 is presented. These oscillation events were captured and recorded by the wide‐area frequency monitoring network FNET/GridEye. Oscillation occurrence, dominant frequency, damping ratio and oscillation excitation types are investigated to explore the statistical characteristics of the detected inter‐area oscillations. The results from this paper will provide valuable information for system operators and planners regarding network operation and future grid development.

Cui, Yi↗

Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America

Significance Exposure to extreme temperatures and high levels of the pollutants ozone and particulate matter poses a major threat to human health. Heat waves and pollution episodes share common underlying meteorological drivers and thus often coincide, which can synergistically worsen their health impacts beyond the sum of their individual effects. Furthermore, there is evidence that pollution episodes and heat waves will worsen under future climate change, making it imperative to understand the nature of their co-occurrence. In this paper, using 15 years of surface observations over the eastern United States and Canada, we show that the extremes cluster together in often overlapping large-scale episodes, and that the largest episodes have the hottest temperatures and highest levels of pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and large ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metallothionein expression in Eastern mosquitofish ( Gambusia holbrooki ) exposed to 137 Cs and lead: implications for using metallothionein as a metal exposure biomarker

Given the range of threats facing aquatic ecosystems, it is critical we have monitoring tools to quickly and efficiently identify stressors within ecosystems. Metallothionein’s (MTs) are a group of proteins widely used as biomarkers of metal exposure; however, their suitability has been questioned due to their influenceable nature and ability to be induced by various stressors. Through our study, we sought to (1) evaluate induction of MT in eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) exposed to a radionuclide ( 137 Cs) and metal (Pb), (2) assess the influence of in situ 137 Cs pre-exposure on Pb-induced MT expression, and (3) quantify changes in MT concentrations during Pb depuration. We conducted our experiment in three phases using mosquitofish as a model species: Phase I—pre-exposure to 137 Cs in the field, Phase II—exposure to Pb in the lab immediately following 137 Cs exposure, and Phase III—depuration in the laboratory. We quantified MT concentrations over time and assessed differences among treatments. We did not find in situ exposure of mosquitofish to 137 Cs to induce MT, nor did pre-exposure to 137 Cs appear to influence induction of MT following Pb exposure. Metallothionein was rapidly induced in mosquitofish following Pb exposure; however, MT induction was also observed in control fish. Additionally, there was no apparent relationship between MT and Pb body burdens. During depuration, we found MT concentrations to be highly variable among fish demonstrating no clear response. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the high variability exhibited by MT, the need for further validation of MT as a metal exposure biomarker, and the value in additional research on these proteins under varying exposure scenarios, particularly environmentally realistic concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗