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At least 271 records · Page 15

Exploring Alternate Parameterizations for Snowfall with Validation from Satellite and Terrestrial Radars

Increases in computational resources have allowed operational forecast centers to pursue experimental, high resolution simulations that resolve the microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation. These experiments are motivated by a desire to improve the representation of weather and climate, but will also benefit current and future satellite campaigns, which often use forecast model output to guide the retrieval process. Aircraft, surface and radar data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project are used to check the validity of size distribution and density characteristics for snowfall simulated by the NASA Goddard six-class, single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, currently available within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Widespread snowfall developed across the region on January 22, 2007, forced by the passing of a midlatitude cyclone, and was observed by the dual-polarimetric, C-band radar King City, Ontario, as well as the NASA 94 GHz CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar. Combined, these data sets provide key metrics for validating model output: estimates of size distribution parameters fit to the inverse-exponential equations prescribed within the model, bulk density and crystal habit characteristics sampled by the aircraft, and representation of size characteristics as inferred by the radar reflectivity at C- and W-band. Specified constants for distribution intercept and density differ significantly from observations throughout much of the cloud depth. Alternate parameterizations are explored, using column-integrated values of vapor excess to avoid problems encountered with temperature-based parameterizations in an environment where inversions and isothermal layers are present. Simulation of CloudSat reflectivity is performed by adopting the discrete-dipole parameterizations and databases provided in literature, and demonstrate an improved capability in simulating radar reflectivity at W-band versus Mie scattering assumptions.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Exploring Alternative Parameterizations for Snowfall with Validation from Satellite and Terrestrial Radars

Increases in computational resources have allowed operational forecast centers to pursue experimental, high resolution simulations that resolve the microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation. These experiments are motivated by a desire to improve the representation of weather and climate, but will also benefit current and future satellite campaigns, which often use forecast model output to guide the retrieval process. The combination of reliable cloud microphysics and radar reflectivity may constrain radiative transfer models used in satellite simulators during future missions, including EarthCARE and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement. Aircraft, surface and radar data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project are used to check the validity of size distribution and density characteristics for snowfall simulated by the NASA Goddard six-class, single moment bulk water microphysics scheme, currently available within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Widespread snowfall developed across the region on January 22, 2007, forced by the passing of a mid latitude cyclone, and was observed by the dual-polarimetric, C-band radar King City, Ontario, as well as the NASA 94 GHz CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar. Combined, these data sets provide key metrics for validating model output: estimates of size distribution parameters fit to the inverse-exponential equations prescribed within the model, bulk density and crystal habit characteristics sampled by the aircraft, and representation of size characteristics as inferred by the radar reflectivity at C- and W-band. Specified constants for distribution intercept and density differ significantly from observations throughout much of the cloud depth. Alternate parameterizations are explored, using column-integrated values of vapor excess to avoid problems encountered with temperature-based parameterizations in an environment where inversions and isothermal layers are present. Simulation of CloudSat reflectivity is performed by adopting the discrete-dipole parameterizations and databases provided in literature, and demonstrate an improved capability in simulating radar reflectivity at W-band versus Mie scattering assumptions.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Modeling and control of distributed structures

An inherent incongruity in the modeling of controls for structures is discussed. Structures are basically distributed-parameter systems, described by partial differential equations, and control theory is concerned almost exclusively with discrete (in space) systems, described by ordinary differential equations. The standard approach to solving this dilemma is to discretize the system in space, which precludes the use of distributed controls. A different approach, known as the independent modal-space control method, is designed to eliminate the incongruity by bringing about a closer correspondence between modeling and control theory. The independent modal-space control method can treat distributed structures as well as discretized models and it permits design of both distributed and discrete-point controls.

Meirovitch, L.↗

Analysis of Broad-Lined Type Ic Supernovae From the (Intermediate) Palomar Transient Factory

We study 34 Type Ic supernovae that have broad spectral features (SNe Ic-BL). This is the only SN type found in association with long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs).We obtained our photometric data with the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) and its continuation, the intermediate PTF (iPTF). This is the first large, homogeneous sample of SNe Ic-BL from an untargeted survey. Furthermore, given the high observational cadence of iPTF, most of these SNe Ic-BL were discovered soon after explosion. We present K-corrected Bgriz light curves of these SNe, obtained through photometry on template-subtracted images. We analyzed the shape of the r-band light curves, finding a correlation between the decline parameter delta m15 and the rise parameter delta m-10. We studied the SN colors and, based on g - r, we estimated the host-galaxy extinction for each event. Peak r-band absolute magnitudes have an average of -18:6 +- 0:5 mag. We fit each r-band light curve with that of SN 1998bw (scaled and stretched) to derive the explosion epochs. We computed the bolometric light curves using bolometric corrections, r-band data, and g - r colors. Expansion velocities from Fe ii were obtained by fitting spectral templates of SNe Ic. Bolometric light curves and velocities at peak were fitted using the semianalytic Arnett model to estimate ejecta mass Mej, explosion energy EK and 56Ni mass M(56Ni) for each SN. We find average values of Mej = 4 +- 3 M sun, EK = (7 +- 6) x 1051 erg, and M(56Ni) = 0:31 +- 0:16 M . The parameter distributions were compared to those presented in the literature and are overall in agreement with them. We also estimated the degree of 56Ni mixing using scaling relations derived from hydrodynamical models and we find that all the SNe are strongly mixed. The derived explosion parameters imply that at least 21% of the progenitors of SNe Ic-BL are compatible with massive (>28 M ), possibly single stars, whereas at least 64% might come from less massive stars in close binary systems.

Supernovae↗

Flexible Models for Solar Sail Control

Solar sails employ a unique form of propulsion, gaining momentum from incident and reflected photons. However, the momentum transferred by an individual photon is extremely small. Consequently, a solar sail must have an extremely large surface area and also be extremely light. The flexibility of the sail then must be considered when designing or evaluating control laws. In this paper, solar sail flexibility and its influence on control effectiveness is considered using idealized two-dimensional models to represent physical phenomena rather than a specific design. Differential equations of motion are derived for a distributed parameter model of a flexible solar sail idealized as a rotating central hub with two opposing flexible booms. This idealization is appropriate for solar sail designs in which the vibrational modes of the sail and supporting booms move together allowing the sail mass to be distributed along the booms in the idealized model. A reduced analytical model of the flexible response is considered. Linear feedback torque control is applied at the central hub. Two translational disturbances and a torque disturbance also act at the central hub representing the equivalent effect of deflecting sail shape about a reference line. Transient simulations explore different control designs and their effectiveness for controlling orientation, for reducing flexible motion and for disturbance rejection. A second model also is developed as a two-dimensional "pathfinder" model to calculate the effect of solar sail shape on the resultant thrust, in-plane force and torque at the hub. The analysis is then extended to larger models using the finite element method. The finite element modeling approach is verified by comparing results from a two-dimensional finite element model with those from the analytical model. The utility of the finite element modeling approach for this application is then illustrated through examples based on a full finite element model.

Weaver Smith, Suzanne↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-20108-DND

This presentation describes several enhancements planned for the version 4 aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument. The CALIOP subtyping algorithm determines the most likely aerosol type from CALIOP measurements (attenuated backscatter, estimated particulate depolarization ratios de, layer altitude), and surface type. The aerosol type, so determined, is associated with a lidar ratio (LR) from a discrete set of values. In the version 3 algorithms, there are 6 pairs of 532 and 1064 nm lidar ratios. Some of these lidar ratios will be updated in the version 4 algorithms. In particular, the dust and polluted dust will be adjusted to reflect the latest measurements and model studies of these types. The algorithms are being updated to eliminate the occasional confusion between smoke and clean marine aerosols seen in version 3 by modifications to the elevated layer flag definitions that are used to determine the presence of smoke aerosols over the ocean. In the subtyping algorithms pure dust is determined by high estimated particulate depolarization ratios [de > 0.20]. Mixtures of dust and other aerosol types are determined by intermediate values of the estimated depolarization ratio [0.075< de <0.2]. The version 3 algorithms are limited to mixtures of dust and smoke, the so-called polluted dust aerosol type. To differentiate between mixtures of dust and smoke, and dust and marine aerosols, a new aerosol type will be added in the version 4 data products. In the revised classification algorithms, polluted dust will still defined as dust + smoke/pollution but in the marine boundary layer instances of moderate depolarization will be typed as dusty marine aerosols with a lower lidar ratio [LR = 35 sr] than polluted dust [currently LR = 55 sr]. The dusty marine type introduced in version 4 is modeled as a mixture of dust + marine aerosol. In the v3 algorithms the frequency of dust and polluted dust aerosols at daytime is higher than at nighttime. We present possible reasons for this and present the v4 distributions resulting from both improved background slope corrections of the daytime depolarization ratios and changes to the daytime thresholds for the polluted dust and dusty marine types of version 4. To gauge the impact of the enhancements, we contrast the following between versions 3 and 4: aerosol type, parameter distributions of each type, layer heights of maximum frequency, and distributions of smoke in biomass burning regions. To illustrate specific impacts the presentation shows case studies of version 3 and version 4 vertical feature masks of the aerosol subtypes, where appropriate, for the above enhancements.

A Omar↗

Comparison of distributed reacceleration and leaky-box models of cosmic-ray abundances (Z = 3-28)

A large collection of elemental and isotopic cosmic-ray data has been analyzed using the leaky-box transport model with and without reacceleration in the interstellar medium. Abundances of isotopes and elements with charges Z = 3-28 and energies E = 10 MeV/nucleon-1 TeV/nucleon were explored. Our results demonstrate that reacceleration models make detailed and accurate predictions with the same number of parameters or fewer as standard leaky-box models. Ad hoc fitting parameters in the standard model are replaced by astrophysically significant reacceleration parameters. Distributed reacceleration models explain the peak in secondary-to-primary ratios around 1 GeV/nucleon. They diminish the discrepancy between rigidity-dependent leakage and energy-independent anisotropy. They also offer the possibility of understanding isotopic anomalies at low energy.

Letaw, John R.↗

Revisiting constraints on asymmetric dark matter from collapse in white dwarf stars

The runaway collapse phase of a small dark matter cluster inside a white dwarf star encompasses a reversible stage, where heat can be transferred back and forth between nuclear and dark matter. Induced nuclear burning phases are stable and early carbon depletion undermines previous claims of type Ia supernova ignition. Instead, mini black holes are formed at the center of the star that either evaporate or accrete stellar material until a macroscopic sub-Chandrasekhar-mass black hole is formed. In the latter case, a 0.1 to 1 second lasting electromagnetic transient signal can be detected upon ejection of the white dwarf’s potential magnetic field. Binary systems that transmute to black holes and subsequently merge emit gravitational waves. Advanced LIGO should detect one such sub-Chandrasekhar binary black hole inspiral per year, while future Einstein telescope-like facilities will detect thousands per year. The effective spin parameter distribution is peaked at 0.2 and permits future studies to disentangle from primordial sub-Chandrasekhar black holes. Such signatures are compatible with current direct detection constraints, as well as with neutron star constraints in the case of bosonic dark matter, even though they remain in conflict with the fermionic case for part of the parameter space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Five-Parameter Bivariate Probability Distribution

NASA technical memorandum presents four papers about five-parameter bivariate gamma class of probability distributions. With some overlap of subject matter, papers address different aspects of theories of these distributions and use in forming statistical models of such phenomena as wind gusts. Provides acceptable results for defining constraints in problems designing aircraft and spacecraft to withstand large wind-gust loads.

Tubbs, J.↗

Optimal control of first order distributed systems

The problem of characterizing optimal controls for a class of distributed-parameter systems is considered. The system dynamics are characterized mathematically by a finite number of coupled partial differential equations involving first-order time and space derivatives of the state variables, which are constrained at the boundary by a finite number of algebraic relations. Multiple control inputs, extending over the entire spatial region occupied by the system ("distributed controls') are to be designed so that the response of the system is optimal. A major example involving boundary control of an unstable low-density plasma is developed from physical laws.

Johnson, T. L.↗

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗

Galerkin approximation for inverse problems for nonautonomous nonlinear distributed systems

An abstract framework and convergence theory is developed for Galerkin approximation for inverse problems involving the identification of nonautonomous nonlinear distributed parameter systems. A set of relatively easily verified conditions is provided which are sufficient to guarantee the existence of optimal solutions and their approximation by a sequence of solutions to a sequence of approximating finite dimensional identification problems. The approach is based on the theory of monotone operators in Banach spaces and is applicable to a reasonably broad class of nonlinear distributed systems. Operator theoretic and variational techniques are used to establish a fundamental convergence result. An example involving evolution systems with dynamics described by nonstationary quasilinear elliptic operators along with some applications are presented and discussed.

Banks, H. T.↗

The Novel Scaling of Tsallis Parameters from the Transverse Momentum Spectra of Charged Particles in Heavy-Ion Collisions

The transverse momentum (pT) spectra of charged particles measured in Au + Au collisions from the beam energy scan (BES) program, Cu + Cu collisions at sNN=62.4, 200 GeV at the RHIC and Pb + Pb, Xe + Xe collisions at the LHC are investigated in the framework of Tsallis thermodynamics. The theory can describe the experimental data well for all the collision systems, energies and centralities investigated. The collision energy and centrality dependence of the Tsallis distribution parameters, i.e., the temperature T and the nonextensive parameter q, for the A + A collisions are also studied and discussed. A novel scaling between the temperature divided by the natural logarithm of collision energy (T/lns) and the nonextensive parameter q is presented.

Tao, Junqi↗

Validation Metrics for Fixed Effects and Mixed-Effects Calibration

The modern scientific process often involves the development of a predictive computational model. To improve its accuracy, a computational model can be calibrated to a set of experimental data. A variety of validation metrics can be used to quantify this process. Some of these metrics have direct physical interpretations and a history of use, while others, especially those for probabilistic data, are more difficult to interpret. In this work, a variety of validation metrics are used to quantify the accuracy of different calibration methods. Frequentist and Bayesian perspectives are used with both fixed effects and mixed-effects statistical models. Through a quantitative comparison of the resulting distributions, the most accurate calibration method can be selected. Two examples are included which compare the results of various validation metrics for different calibration methods. It is quantitatively shown that, in the presence of significant laboratory biases, a fixed effects calibration is significantly less accurate than a mixed-effects calibration. This is because the mixed-effects statistical model better characterizes the underlying parameter distributions than the fixed effects model. The results suggest that validation metrics can be used to select the most accurate calibration model for a particular empirical model with corresponding experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A note on the regularity of solutions of infinite dimensional Riccati equations

This note is concerned with the regularity of solutions of algebraic Riccati equations arising from infinite dimensional LQR and LQG control problems. We show that distributed parameter systems described by certain parabolic partial differential equations often have a special structure that smoothes solutions of the corresponding Riccati equation. This analysis is motivated by the need to find specific representations for Riccati operators that can be used in the development of computational schemes for problems where the input and output operators are not Hilbert-Schmidt. This situation occurs in many boundary control problems and in certain distributed control problems associated with optimal sensor/actuator placement.

Burns, John A.↗

Nickel cadmium cell composite reliability model

Ni-Cd battery reliability has become a critical design parameter with the increasing need for longer life and optimally designed secondary battery power systems in space as well as in more mundane applications. It is the purpose of this paper to present a state-of-the-art Ni-Cd cell reliability model as a function of cumulative cyclic operation, cell temperature and cyclic depth-of-discharge. In addition, a simple and convenient cell failure analysis technique will be presented in which the reliability, the distribution, and the distribution parameters can be determined by visual inspection.

Kirsch, W. W.↗

Candidate strongly lensed type Ia supernovae in the Zwicky Transient Facility archive

Gravitationally lensed type Ia supernovae (glSNe Ia) are unique astronomical tools that can be used to study cosmological parameters, distributions of dark matter, the astrophysics of the supernovae, and the intervening lensing galaxies themselves. A small number of highly magnified glSNe Ia have been discovered by ground-based telescopes such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), but simulations predict that a fainter, undetected population may also exist. We present a systematic search for glSNe Ia in the ZTF archive of alerts distributed from June 1 2019 to September 1 2022. Using the AMPEL platform, we developed a pipeline that distinguishes candidate glSNe Ia from other variable sources. Initial cuts were applied to the ZTF alert photometry (with constraints on the peak absolute magnitude and the distance to a catalogue-matched galaxy, as examples) before forced photometry was obtained for the remaining candidates. Additional cuts were applied to refine the candidates based on their light curve colours, lens galaxy colours, and the resulting parameters from fits to the SALT2 SN Ia template. The candidates were also cross-matched with the DESI spectroscopic catalogue. Seven transients were identified that passed all the cuts and had an associated galaxy DESI redshift, which we present as glSN Ia candidates. Although superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) cannot be fully rejected as contaminants, two events, ZTF19abpjicm and ZTF22aahmovu, are significantly different from typical SLSNe and their light curves can be modelled as two-image glSN Ia systems. From this two-image modelling, we estimate time delays of 22 ± 3 and 34 ± 1 days for the two events, respectively, which suggests that we have uncovered a population of glSNe Ia with longer time delays. The pipeline is efficient and sensitive enough to parse full alert streams. It is currently being applied to the live ZTF alert stream to identify and follow-up future candidates while active. This pipeline could be the foundation for glSNe Ia searches in future surveys, such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗