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At least 271 records · Page 15

Comparing Resource Adequacy Metrics: Preprint

As the penetration of variable generation (wind and solar) increases around the world, there is an accompanying growing interest and importance in accurately assessing the contribution that these resources can make toward planning reserve. This contribution, also known as the capacity credit or capacity value of the resource, is best quantified by using a probabilistic measure of overall resource adequacy. In recognizing the variable nature of these renewable resources, there has been interest in exploring the use of reliability metrics other than loss of load expectation. In this paper, we undertake some comparisons using data from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in the western United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparing Resource Adequacy Metrics

As the penetration of variable generation (wind and solar) increases around the world, there is an accompanying growing interest and importance in accurately assessing the contribution that these resources can make toward planning reserve. This contribution, also known as the capacity credit or capacity value of the resource, is best quantified by using a probabilistic measure of overall resource adequacy. In recognizing the variable nature of these renewable resources, there has been interest in exploring the use of reliability metrics other than loss of load expectation. In this paper, we undertake some comparisons using data from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in the western United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Where and When Does Solar Plus Storage Make Sense for Commercial Buildings?

As the capital cost of battery energy storage systems (BESS) declines, opportunities for commercial buildings to achieve net savings through peak demand management and energy arbitrage are emerging. National Renewable Energy Laboratory researchers modeled energy storage project economics - with and without accompanying solar photovoltaic systems - using local utility rates, ASHRAE climate zones, and solar intensity data to identify regions where these systems deliver life cycle savings now and in future cost scenarios.

battery energy storage systems↗

SU-F-J-110: MRI-Guided Single-Session Simulation, Online Adaptation, and Treatment

Purpose: To develop a combined simulation and treatment workflow for MRI-guided radiation therapy using the ViewRay treatment planning and delivery system. Methods: Several features of the ViewRay MRIdian planning and treatment workflows are used to simulate and treat patients that require emergent radiotherapy. A simple “pre-plan” is created on diagnostic imaging retrieved from radiology PACS, where conformal fields are created to target a volume defined by a physician based on review of the diagnostic images and chart notes. After initial consult in radiation oncology, the patient is brought to the treatment room, immobilized, and imaged in treatment position with a volumetric MR. While the patient rests on the table, the pre-plan is applied to the treatment planning MR and dose is calculated in the treatment geometry. After physician review, modification of the plan may include updating the target definition, redefining fields, or re-balancing beam weights. Once an acceptable treatment plan is finalized and approved, the patient is treated. Results: Careful preparation and judicious choices in the online planning process allow conformal treatment plans to be created and delivered in a single, thirty-minute session. Several advantages have been identified using this process as compared to conventional urgent CT simulation and delivery. Efficiency gains are notable, as physicians appreciate the predictable time commitment and patient waiting time for treatment is decreased. MR guidance in a treatment position offers both enhanced contrast for target delineation and reduction of setup uncertainties. The MRIdian system tools designed for adaptive radiotherapy are particularly useful, enabling plan changes to be made in minutes. Finally, the resulting plans, typically 6 conformal beams, are delivered as quickly as more conventional AP/PA beam arrangements with comparatively superior dose distributions. Conclusion: The ViewRay treatment planning software and delivery system can accommodate a fast simulation and treatment workflow.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of a Weibull posterior distribution by combining a Weibull prior with an actual failure distribution using Bayesian inference

A Bayesian inference process for system logistical planning is presented which provides a method for incorporating actual failures with prediction data for an ongoing and improving reliability estimates. The process uses the Weibull distribution, and provides a means for examining and updating logistical and maintenance support needs.

Giuntini, Michael E.↗

Quantifying Hydraulic and Water Quality Uncertainty to Inform Sampling of Drinking Water Distribution Systems

Sampling of drinking water distribution systems is performed to ensure good water quality and protect public health. Sampling also satisfies regulatory requirements and is done to respond to customer complaints or emergency situations. Water distribution system modeling techniques can be used to plan and inform sampling strategies. However, a high degree of accuracy and confidence in the hydraulic and water quality models is required to support real-time response. One source of error in these models is related to uncertainty in model input parameters. Effective characterization of these uncertainties and their effect on contaminant transport during a contamination incident is critical for providing confidence estimates in model-based design and evaluation of different sampling strategies. In this paper, the effects of uncertainty in customer demand, isolation valve status, bulk reaction rate coefficient, contaminant injection location, start time, duration, and rate on the size and location of the contaminant plume are quantified for two example water distribution systems. Results show that the most important parameter was the injection location. The size of the plume was also affected by the reaction rate coefficient, injection rate, and injection duration, whereas the exact location of the plume was additionally affected by the isolation valve status. As a result, uncertainty quantification provides a more complete picture of how contaminants move within a water distribution system and more information when using modeling results to select sampling locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SU-E-T-592: Relationship Between Dose of Distribution and Area of Segment Fields Among Different Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Planning in Cervix Cancer

Purpose: In premise of uninfluenced to dose distribution of tumor target and organ at risk(OAR) in cervical cancer,area of segment fields was changed to increase efficacy and optimize treatment method by designing different plan of intensity modulated radiotherapy(IMRT). Methods: 12 cases of cervical cancer were confirmed in pathology and treated with step and shoot IMRT. Dose of PTV was 50Gy/25fractions. Every patient was designed 9 treatment plans of IMRT by Pinnacle 8.0m planning system,each plan was used with 9 beams of uniform distribution and fixing incidence direction(200°,240°,280°,320°,0°,40°,80°,120°and 160°respectively),and designed for delivery on Elekta Synergy linear accelerator. All plans were optimized with the direct machine parameter optimization(DMPO) algorithm using the same set of optimization objectives. Number of maximum segment field was defined at 80 and minimum MU in each segment was 5MU,and minimal segment area was 2*1cm{sup 2},2*2cm{sup 2},3*3cm{sup 2},4*4cm{sup 2},5*5cm{sup 2},6*6cm{sup 2},7*7cm{sup 2},8*8cm{sup 2}and 9*9cm{sup 2},respectively.Coverage,homogeneity and conformity of PTV,sparing of OAR, MU and number of segment were compared. Results: In this group, mean volume of PTV was 916.8±228.7 cm{sup 3}. Compared with the area of minimal segment field increased from 2*1cm{sup 2} to 9*9 cm{sup 2},the number of mean MU was decreased from 1405±170 to 490±47 and the number of segment field was reduced from 76±4 to 39±7 respectively(p<0.05). When the limit of minimal segment area was increased from 2*1cm{sup 2} to 7*7 cm{sup 2},dose distribution of PTV,OAR,CI,HI and V{sub 2} {sub 3} were not different (p>0.05),but when the minimal segment area was 8*8 cm{sup 2} and 9*9 cm{sup 2},they were changed compared with 7*7 cm{sup 2} and below(p<0.05). Conclusion: The minimal segment field of IMRT plan designed by Pinnacle 8.0m planning system in cervical carcinoma should be enlarge reasonably and minimal segment area of 7*7 cm{sup 2} was recommend.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Challenges and Opportunities of Integrating Electric Vehicles in Electricity Distribution Systems

Increased charging needs from widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (EVs) will impact electricity demand. This will likely require a combination of potentially costly distribution infrastructure upgrades and synergistic grid-transportation solutions such as managed charging and strategic charger placement. Fully implementing such strategic planning and control methods - including business models and mechanisms to engage and compensate consumers - can minimize or even eliminate required grid upgrades. Moreover, there are also opportunities for EV charging to support the grid by helping solve existing and emerging distribution system challenges associated with increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar generation and battery energy storage. This paper reviews the potential impacts of EV charging on electricity distribution systems and describes methods from the literature to efficiently integrate EVs into distribution systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distributed Solar Adoption in Orlando: A Household-Level Model for Distribution Resource Planning

Potential for rooftop solar in Florida is massive (47% of retail sales, 3rd overall nationally), yet adoption lags (12th nationally). A 2018 Florida Public Service Commission ruling authorizing solar third-party ownership (leasing) has substantially increased attention on distributed solar in the state. The city of Orlando has committed to a 100% clean-energy target by 2050 and deployment of solar and storage are expected to contribute significantly to reaching the goal. Deployment of customer-adopted solar, unlike utility-procured solar, is uncertain, but known to be spatially correlated with demographic factors and existing adoption. We develop a new method to adapt NREL's dGen model in order to represent building-level agents in adoption forecasts for the Orlando Utility Commission (OUC) service territory. Using the agent-based model we develop projections of solar adoption, subject to scenarios varying future solar costs and valuation, and aggregate adoption predictions by OUC distribution feeder. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in the projected level of adoption by OUC distribution feeder. For instance, 25% of all projected adoption through 2050 would be concentrated on just 5% of feeders and 88% of projected adoption on 50% of feeders. Because of the uncertainty in adoption, bottoms-up solar adoption forecasting methods at the household-level are integral to long-term resource planning by anticipating system needs as customers increasingly adopt distributed solar, storage, electric vehicles, and other distributed energy resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

TH-AB-201-12: Using Machine Log-Files for Treatment Planning and Delivery QA

Purpose: To determine the segment reduction and dose resolution necessary for machine log-files to effectively replace current phantom-based patient-specific quality assurance, while minimizing computational cost. Methods: Elekta’s Log File Convertor R3.2 records linac delivery parameters (dose rate, gantry angle, leaf position) every 40ms. Five VMAT plans [4 H&N, 1 Pulsed Brain] comprised of 2 arcs each were delivered on the ArcCHECK phantom. Log-files were reconstructed in Pinnacle on the phantom geometry using 1/2/3/4° control point spacing and 2/3/4mm dose grid resolution. Reconstruction effectiveness was quantified by comparing 2%/2mm gamma passing rates of the original and log-file plans. Modulation complexity scores (MCS) were calculated for each beam to correlate reconstruction accuracy and beam modulation. Percent error in absolute dose for each plan-pair combination (log-file vs. ArcCHECK, original vs. ArcCHECK, log-file vs. original) was calculated for each arc and every diode greater than 10% of the maximum measured dose (per beam). Comparing standard deviations of the three plan-pair distributions, relative noise of the ArcCHECK and log-file systems was elucidated. Results: The original plans exhibit a mean passing rate of 95.1±1.3%. The eight more modulated H&N arcs [MCS=0.088±0.014] and two less modulated brain arcs [MCS=0.291±0.004] yielded log-file pass rates most similar to the original plan when using 1°/2mm [0.05%±1.3% lower] and 2°/3mm [0.35±0.64% higher] log-file reconstructions respectively. Log-file and original plans displayed percent diode dose errors 4.29±6.27% and 3.61±6.57% higher than measurement. Excluding the phantom eliminates diode miscalibration and setup errors; log-file dose errors were 0.72±3.06% higher than the original plans – significantly less noisy. Conclusion: For log-file reconstructed VMAT arcs, 1° control point spacing and 2mm dose resolution is recommended, however, less modulated arcs may allow less stringent reconstructions. Following the aforementioned reconstruction recommendations, the log-file technique is capable of detecting delivery errors with equivalent accuracy and less noise than ArcCHECK QA. I am funded by an Elekta Research Grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Online Adaptive Hyperthermia Treatment Planning During Locoregional Heating to Suppress Treatment-Limiting Hot Spots

Background: Adequate tumor temperatures during hyperthermia are essential for good clinical response, but excessive heating of normal tissue should be avoided. This makes locoregional heating using phased array systems technically challenging. Online application of hyperthermia treatment planning could help to improve the heating quality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical benefit of online treatment planning during treatment of pelvic tumors heated with the AMC-8 locoregional hyperthermia system. Methods: For online adaptive hyperthermia treatment planning, a graphical user interface was developed. Electric fields were calculated in a preprocessing step using our in-house–developed finite-difference–based treatment planning system. This allows instant calculation of the temperature distribution for user-selected phase-amplitude settings during treatment and projection onto the patient's computed tomographic scan for online visualization. Online treatment planning was used for 14 treatment sessions in 8 patients to reduce the patients' reports of hot spots while maintaining the same level of tumor heating. The predicted decrease in hot spot temperature should be at least 0.5°C, and the tumor temperature should decrease less than 0.2°C. These predictions were compared with clinical data: patient feedback about the hot spot and temperature measurements in the tumor region. Results: In total, 17 hot spot reports occurred during the 14 sessions, and the alternative settings predicted the hot spot temperature to decrease by at least 0.5°C, which was confirmed by the disappearance of all 17 hot spot reports. At the same time, the average tumor temperature was predicted to change on average −0.01°C (range, −0.19°C to 0.34°C). The measured tumor temperature change was on average only −0.02°C (range, −0.26°C to 0.31°C). In only 2 cases the temperature decrease was slightly larger than 0.2°C, but at most it was 0.26°C. Conclusions: Online application of hyperthermia treatment planning is reliable and very useful to reduce hot spots without affecting tumor temperatures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 14: Model Verification/Validation Test Plan (Deliverable D10))

This report summarizes the technical progress and validation plan for each of AGGREGATE project modules, and integrated modules. The overall validation plan can be divided into two major parts. Firstly, it provides offline validation results of each module using the IEEE-123 node distribution system with certain modifications to support individual module results verification. The offline validation plan tentatively validated the usability and practicability of developed AGGREGATE tools. Secondly, the realworld test system - Seattle City Light (SCL) test feeder for verifying each module and the integrated modules using GE advanced distribution management system (ADMS) software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Case Study in NREL DERMS Asset Management Implementation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Smarter Grid Solutions (SGS) plan to present a case study on their implementation of SGS' Strata Grid Distributed Energy Resource Management System at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). The ESIF is one of the nation's premier energy systems integration laboratory facilities focused on development and deployment of clean energy technologies and resilient delivery systems. NREL looked for a DERMS to install at the ESIF that is capable of replicating real world scenarios to control and monitor distributed devices from small residential scale to the grid substation level. The DERMS system demonstrates the use cases of beneficial operation and coordination of modern grid devices, leverage DERs for improved grid planning and operation, demand-side management and customer engagement through bidirectional communication with utilities and energy market operations. The presentation will cover the delivery strategy of NREL and SGS, how the use cases help NREL's research, and NREL and SGS plan to expand the system and use cases.

ARIES↗

The Cost of Distribution System Upgrades to Accommodate Increasing Penetrations of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems on Real Feeders in the United States

The increasing deployment of distributed photovoltaic systems (DPV) can impact operations at the distribution level and the transmission level of the electric grid. It is important to develop and implement forward-looking approaches for calculating distribution upgrade costs that can be used to inform system planning, market and tariff design, cost allocation, and other policymaking as penetration levels of DPV increase. Using a bottom-up approach that involves iterative hosting capacity analysis, this report calculates distribution upgrade costs as a function of DPV penetration on three real feeders - two in California and one in the Northeastern United States.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Priority scheme planning for the robust SSM/PMAD testbed

Whenever mixing priorities of manually controlled resources with those of autonomously controlled resources, the space station module power management and distribution (SSM/PMAD) environment requires cooperating expert system interaction between the planning function and the priority manager. The elements and interactions of the SSM/PMAD planning and priority management functions are presented. Their adherence to cooperating for common achievement are described. In the SSM/PMAD testbed these actions are guided by having a system planning function, KANT, which has insight to the executing system and its automated database. First, the user must be given access to all information which may have an effect on the desired outcome. Second, the fault manager element, FRAMES, must be informed as to the change so that correct diagnoses and operations take place if and when faults occur. Third, some element must engage as mediator for selection of resources and actions to be added or removed at the user's request. This is performed by the priority manager, LPLMS. Lastly, the scheduling mechanism, MAESTRO, must provide future schedules adhering to the user modified resource base.

Elges, Michael R.↗