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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests have been designed to estimate the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution that was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method uses both independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a coefficient-by-coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors have been further analyzed using a method based on eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis, which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite data sets and independent altimetric, resonant satellite, and surface gravity data sets all confirm essentially the same error assessment. The calibration test results yield very stable calibration factors, which vary only by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests performed. Based on these calibrated error estimates, GEM-T1 is a significantly improved solution, which to degree and order 8 is twice as accurate as earlier satellite derived models like GEM-L2. Also, by being complete to degree and order 36, GEM-T1 is more complete and has significantly reduced aliasing effects that were present in previous models.

Lerch, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Criticality Safety Integral Experiment Covariance Determination

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. Commonly, the uncertainty quantification ignores correlations between experiments that share components. Experiments such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns consist of many shared parts, such as fuel, which create a strong correlation in their uncertainties. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes a software package that uses an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation matrix for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. The code uses the TEX-HEU campaign as a proof of concept, and we show that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. The estimated covariances are used in χ 2 trending studies to evaluate their impact on nuclear data validation. Without covariances, χ 2 per degree of freedom was calculated as 2.203 and with covariances it was 1.179. The difference shows that omitting covariance information may cause overly pessimistic bias quantifications. The covariance determination code can be easily integrated into current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluating legacy benchmark uncertainties. Uncertainty correlation calculations should become the baseline for criticality safety integral experiment benchmarks and can now be easily calculated with the described software package.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

TICC Clustering Library v.1.0

SAND2024-01234O TICC is a clustering algorithm that labels a sequence of data points according to numerical properties. This library is a Python implementation of the algorithm described in "Toeplitz Inverse Covariance-Based Clustering of Multivariate Time Series Data" (Hallac et al. 2017). It includes documentation, performance improvements, examples, and test coverage. This library allows users to automatically segment a series of multivariate data points according to their covariance—that is, the way the values at each data point are changing in relation to one another. This is useful for identifying periods in which a system is behaving. For example, if a sensor is measuring a car's velocity, steering wheel angle, braking and acceleration, TICC can determine when the car was stopped, beginning/exiting a turn, slowing or accelerating at an intersection, or driving on straight or curved roads. TICC can be applied to measure multiple quantities at known times. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525

Dalbey, Keith↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗
NASA NTRS1989

Methods for local gravity field approximation

The most widely known modern method for estimating gravity field values from observed data is least-squares collocation. Its advantages are that it can make estimates at arbitrary locations based on irregularly spaced observations, and that it makes use of statistical information about errors in the input data while providing corresponding information about the quality of the output estimates. Disadvantages of collocation include the necessity of inverting square matrices of dimension equal to the number of data values and the need to assume covariance models for the gravity field and the data errors. Fourier methods are an important alternative to collocation; having the advantage of greater computational efficiency, but requiring data estimates to be on a regular grid and not using or providing statistical accuracy information. The GEOFAST algorithm is an implementation of collocation that achieves high computational efficiency by transforming the estimation equations into the frequency domain where an accurate approximation may be made to reduce the workload. The forward and inverse Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) are utilized. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the GEOFAST algorithm is demonstrated using two sets of synthetic gravity data: marine gravity for an ocean trench region including wavelengths longer than 200 km; and local land gravity containing wavelengths as short as 5 km. These results are discussed along with issues such as the advantages of first removing reference field models before carrying out the estimation algorithm.

Sailor, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling Hubble Space Telescope flight data by Q-Markov cover identification

A state space model for the Hubble Space Telescope under the influence of unknown disturbances in orbit is presented. This model was obtained from flight data by applying the Q-Markov covariance equivalent realization identification algorithm. This state space model guarantees the match of the first Q-Markov parameters and covariance parameters of the Hubble system. The flight data were partitioned into high- and low-frequency components for more efficient Q-Markov cover modeling, to reduce some computational difficulties of the Q-Markov cover algorithm. This identification revealed more than 20 lightly damped modes within the bandwidth of the attitude control system. Comparisons with the analytical (TREETOPS) model are also included.

Liu, K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Formal Errors Towards Realistic Uncertainties

Evaluation of uncertainties of geodetic parameter estimates is the problem that is not yet solved in a satisfactory way. A direct evaluation of the uncertainties derived from a least square solution is labeled "formal" and is usually biased, sometimes up to an order of magnitude. Customary, the use of formal errors for scientific analysis is discouraged. We claim that the root of the problem is neglecting off-diagonal elements in the variance-covariance matrix of the noise in the data. A careful reconstruction of the full variance-covariance matrix, including the off-diagonal terms greatly improves realism of uncertainty estimates derived from least squares. We processed the dataset of VLBI group delays and built a prior variance-covariance of the atmosphere-driven noise based on analysis of the output of NASA high-resolution numerical weather models. We found that the uncertainties of parameter estimates derived from this least square solution that uses such variance-covariance matrices become much closer to realistic errors. We consider approaches for implementation of this method in routine data analysis of space geodesy data.

Leonid Petrov↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

A comparison of the effects of small nonlinearities on several estimation schemes.

A variety of techniques are available for estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data. These procedures are generally equivalent when applied to linear systems. This paper investigates the difference between several of these procedures in the presence of small dynamic and observational nonlinearities. In particular, it examines one least square batch processing algorithm, and three recursive algorithms similar to the Kalman filter. To first order, all the estimators have the same covariance. Expressions for the means, however, show that each estimator has a different bias. The examples presented show that the biases can be a strong function of such parameters as initial covariances and number of data points being considered.

Conrad, B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Influence of Correlated Crustal Signals in Modelling the Main Geomagnetic Field

Algorithms used in geomagnetic main-field modelling have for the most part treated the noise in the field measurements as if it were white. A major component of the noise consists of the field due to magnetization in the crust and it has been realized for some time that such signals are highly correlated at satellite altitude. Hence approximation by white noise, while of undoubted utility, is of unknown validity. In this paper we study two plausible statistical models for the crustal magnetization, in which the magnetization is a realization of a stationary, isotropic, random process. At a typical satellite altitude the associated fields exhibit significant correlation over ranges as great as 15 deg. or more, which introduces off-diagonal elements into the covariance matrix, elements that have usually been neglected in modelling procedures. Dealing with a full covariance matrix for a large data set would present a formidable computational challenge, but fortunately most of the entries in the covariance matrix are so small that they can be replaced by zeros. The resultant matrix comprises only about 3 per cent non-zero entries and thus we can take advantage of efficient sparse matrix techniques to solve the numerical system. We construct several main-field models based on vertical-component data from a selected 5 deg. by 5 deg. data set derived from the Magsat mission. Models with and without off-diagonal terms are compared.

Rygaard-Hjalsted, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Posterior Covariance Matrix Approximations

Here, the Davis equation of state (EOS) is commonly used to model thermodynamic relationships for high explosive (HE) reactants. Typically, the parameters in the EOS are calibrated, with uncertainty, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are computationally expensive, especially for complex models with many parameters. This paper provides a comparison between MCMC and less computationally expensive Variational methods (Variational Bayesian and Hessian Variational Bayesian) for computing the posterior distribution and approximating the posterior covariance matrix based on heterogeneous experimental data. All three methods recover similar posterior distributions and posterior covariance matrices. This study demonstrates that for this EOS parameter calibration application, the assumptions made in the two Variational methods significantly reduce the computational cost but do not substantially change the results compared to MCMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENDF/B-VIII.1 Validation: Covariance [Slides]

This presentation touches on ENDF/B-VIII.1 Validation: Covariance. Topics include inconsistencies in the ENDF files, derived matrices, lumped reactions and process ENDF data file with PUFF. Finally correcting data with cognac and redundant covariance that are not consistent are discussed.

Cognac↗
NASA NTRS2010

SPOT Program

A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

Smith, Jason T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

State estimation with small nonlinearities

A variety of techniques is available for estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data. The differences among several of these procedures in the presence of small dynamic and observational nonlinearities are investigated. Four discrete estimation algorithms are analyzed. The first is a strictly least square estimator, while the others are recursive algorithms similar to the Kalman filter used for estimating the states of linear systems. A group of analytic expressions is developed for the mean and covariance of the error in each of these estimators so that they may be compared without lengthy Monte Carlo simulations. The covariance expressions show that, to first order, all the estimators have the same covariance. Expressions for the means show that each estimator has a different bias. Several examples are carried out demonstrating that the relative magnitudes of the bias errors in the various estimators can be a strong function of such parameters as initial covariances and number of data points. Under some circumstances, more complicated algorithms can have larger biases than smaller ones.

Conrad, B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

An analysis of satellite state vector observability using SST tracking data

Observability of satellite state vectors, using only SST tracking data was investigated by covariance analysis under a variety of satellite and station configurations. These results indicate very precarious observability in most short arc cases. The consequences of this are large variances on many state components, such as the downrange component of the relay satellite position. To illustrate the impact of observability problems, an example is given of two distinct satellite orbit pairs generating essentially the same data arc. The physical bases for unobservability are outlined and related to proposed TDRSS configurations. Results are relevant to any mission depending upon TDRSS to determine satellite state. The required mathematical analysis and the software used is described.

Englar, T. S., Jr.↗